Water Scarcity - Future Tense?

[Spectre]

The author Mark Twain once remarked that "whisky is for drinking; water is for fighting over"

I recently read a novel called Water Knife. Its setting is the American Southwest, at a time in the near future when Britney Spears is toothless and old, the World is plagued by climactic calamities and the dwindling water supply is controlled by robber barons.

Much has been written on water as a source of conflict to end all conflicts but we humans just vaguely worry over it never realizing that the danger is clear and imminent. In this article I would attempt to collate and present a realistic picture about the current reality, major potential flash-points, the unseen economics and politics and the implications in our immediate neighborhood.

Historical Perspective

During his reign from 2,450-2,400 BC, King of Lagash set about building boundary canals around his territory. The result was a gradual reduction in the water flowing to nearby Umma (modern-day Iraq). Fisticuffs followed.

Leonardo da Vinci and Machiavelli planned to divert Arno River away from Pisa during conflict between Pisa and Florence.

British and Hessians attacked the water system of New York and wantonly destroyed the New York water works” during the War for Independence.

Violent tensions over water are certainly nothing new, but they are on the rise.

Demand and Supply

A report from the office of the US Director of National Intelligence said the risk of conflict would grow as water demand is set to outstrip sustainable current supplies by 40 per cent by 2030.

"These threats are real and they do raise serious national security concerns," Hillary Clinton, the former US secretary of State, said after the report's release.

Internationally, 780 million people lack access to safe drinking water, according to the United Nations. By 2030, 47 per cent of the world’s population will be living in areas of high water stress, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Environmental Outlook to 2030 Report

Basic demand-supply rules go a long way to explaining the reasons behind this growing friction. Water resources are finite and, according to climate change scientists, could well be dwindling in some existing dry regions. At the same time, the combination of a surging world population and steady industrialisation means the scramble for water is heading ever upward.

The result is a predictable clash of interests, Water is likely to cause the most conflict in areas where new demands for energy and food production will compete with the water required for basic domestic needs of a rapidly growing population.

Major Flash-points

1. Middle East and North Africa

UN studies project that 30 nations will be water scarce in 2025, up from 20 in 1990. Eighteen of them are in the Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt, Israel, Somalia, Libya and Yemen.

a. Ethiopia/Egypt -

The Nile is potential flash point. In 1989, former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak threatened to send demolition squads to a dam project in Ethiopia. The Egyptian army still has jungle warfare brigades, even though they have no jungle.

b. Saudi Arabia

A water crisis is unfolding in Saudi Arabia that could have profound implications for both the Saudi people and for the rest of the world. Reuters published a feature describing how Saudi Arabia’s water crisis is eating into its oil revenues. According to the article, “water use in the desert kingdom is already almost double the per capita global average and increasing at an ever faster rate with the rapid expansion of Saudi Arabia’s population and industrial development , agriculture is the single biggest user, absorbing 85-90 percent of the kingdom’s supplies. Of that, almost 80-85 percent came from underground aquifers.”

c. Israel

The conflicting water-diversion projects by Israel and Syria were a significant contributor to the 1967 Six Day War. Water disputes also contributed to the failure of peace talks between Israel and Syria in the 1990s, as well as those between Tel Aviv and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). In 2002, there was also a short period of political tension related to water resources between Israel and Lebanon. Climate change in the region is likely to increase the frequency of extreme weather conditions throughout the Middle East, potentially leading to decreased rainfall, droughts and water shortages. As a result, water scarcity across the region would further increase, with the consequences for water and food security likely to be dramatic. This, in turn, suggests that the role of water may increase as a source of tension between Israel and Syria and the Palestinians. Indeed, such a possibility is further underlined by the stall in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the uncertain future facing Syria. The heightened regional instability may even put the Israeli-Jordanian consensus on water allocation under growing pressure.

Asia

a. China -

China is today a source of trans-boundary river flows to the entire Indochina, South Asia and Kazakhstan and Russia. China is also the world’s leading dam-builder and the largest producer of hydropower
China’s decision to dam all the major rivers originating on the Tibetan plateau has invited strong reactions in various Asian capitals from New Delhi to Hanoi. Some analysts have predicted even wars or war like situations of various intensity in the region resulting from China’s damming and diversion of Tibetan river waters.

All most all nations affected have tried persuading China not to construct dams and diversion projects on Tibetan rivers at the cost of environmental degradation and the livelihood of nearly 2 billion people living in Afghanistan, the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghana basin and the Mekong basin countries including Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam.

The perception that downstream countries have of China as an uncooperative water hegemon is largely attributed to China’s passive role in international water governance and its reluctance to cooperate with them. To be sure, China needs to be more engaged with its neighbors on trans-boundary river issues, to avoid the tag of Water Hegemon.

b. India - Pakistan

At heart of Kashmir Dispute between India and Pakistan is the water. With the concurrent factors of rising populations and global climate change, the scarcity of water could make all other problems and disagreements between India and Pakistan seem quite irrelevant. Indeed, the lack of access to clean, safe drinking water not only poses a threat to hundreds of millions of people’s lives on the subcontinent, but could conceivably lead to another war.

For Pakistan, the numbers are extremely grim. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report earlier this year which declared Pakistan as one of the most “water-stressed” countries in the world, not far from being classified, “water-scarce," with less than 1,000 cubic meters of water per person per year (the same level as parched Ethiopia), down from 5,000 cubic meters in 1947. India itself is projected to become “water-stressed” by the year 2025 and “water-scarce” by 2050. Due to increased demand and dwindling supplies, Pakistan is drawing too much water from its existing reservoirs, placing the country in grave danger of future shortages. ADB estimated that Pakistan's water storage capacity -- that is, the volume of water it can rely upon in case of an emergency, amounts to a 30-day supply -- far lower than the 1000 days that are suggested for nations with similar climates, The Atlantic noted. (For comparison sake, India’s storage capacity is 120 days.)

On a per capita basis, the availability of water in Pakistan has plunged by almost 75 percent over the last 60 years, Reuters reported, largely due to soaring population growth. The World Wildlife Fund-Pakistan project estimates that by 2025, the country will have 33 percent less water than it will need at that time.

Some officials in Pakistan hold India responsible for its grave predicament. However, others do not blame India for the country’s water woes. Shamsul Mulk, the former chairman of Pakistan's Water and Power Development Authority, places the culpability squarely on incompetence and negligence by Islamabad. "Pakistan has acted like an absentee landlord vis-a-vis water reserves," he told UPI, adding that Pakistan has only constructed two large dams over the past 40 years -- and those are damaged by sedimentation. In contrast, China has built 22,000 dams during that period, while India has constructed about 4,000.

 

[Spectre]

Commoditisation and Securitisation of Water

Water market, is the next big investment opportunity because water management reflects corporate business models. Global sales of water-related equipment and services total up to half a trillion dollars a year. But there is zero charge on withdrawing water. Indeed, most countries subsidise electricity to farmers resulting in overexploitation. Corporations are trying to convince politicians that commoditisation is the ideal way to control wasteful use of water. But a litre of bottled water requires 1.6 litres of water which makes this a wastewater generator apart from colossal plastic-bottle waste. Water consumption by refineries is usually larger than the quantity of gasoline or diesel fuel manufactured. Growing consumption of meat, biofuels and nuclear power — all water-guzzlers — make groundwater the world’s most extracted source.

Proponents of privatization say markets are the best way to solve that problem: only the invisible hand can bring supply and demand into harmony, and only market pricing will drive water use down enough to make a dent in water scarcity. But the benefits of the market come at a price. By definition, a commodity is sold to the highest bidder, not the customer with the most compelling moral claim.

On the one hand, most of the world views water as a basic human right (the U.N. General Assembly voted unanimously to affirm it as such this July). On the other, it’s becoming so expensive to obtain and supply that most governments cannot afford to shoulder the cost alone. By themselves, markets will never be able to balance these competing realities. That means governments will have to play a stronger role in managing freshwater resources. That is not to say that industry doesn’t also have a role to play. With the right incentives, it can develop and supply the technology needed to make water delivery more cost-effective and environmentally sound. Ultimately both public and private entities will have to work together. And soon. Unless we manage our water better now, we will run out. When that happens, no pricing or management scheme in the world will save us.

Possible Solutions

First, water shortage can be viewed as an engineering challenge, with an infrastructure solution. For cities with seasonal water shortage, more water storage from dams or other impoundments may be the solution, although changes in the seasonal distribution of water availability due to climate change may complicate matters. For perennial water shortage, long-distance transport from somewhere beyond the 100-km buffer may be a solution. For cities near the coast, desalination may be an option. Finally, cities on top of a large aquifer may choose to unsustainably mine groundwater, removing water faster than aquifer recharge and putting off water shortage by a few years or decades.

Second, water shortage can be alleviated through landscape management and more efficient use of this resource. Agriculture is the major consumptive use of water globally, and even small gains in agricultural water use efficiency might save substantial quantities for urban dwellers. Similar efficiency gains in the industrial or residential sector may also save significant quantities of water. More generally, changes in land use or land management may free up water for urban dwellers or for the environment. In part of the southwestern United States, for instance, cities sometimes pay farmers to purchase the water the farmers have traditionally put on their fields, in effect freeing up water for cities by reducing the area of irrigated agriculture. Another example is in South Africa, where tree plantations of nonnative water-hungry species are being removed to increase groundwater recharge.

The problem with option one, dealing with this using engineering, is that it's often very expensive and only works in the short term. The researchers prefer landscape management and good agricultural planning:

Water efficiency gains are often cheaper and can even save money. For instance, one study for California found that 2.5 billion cubic meters of water could be saved for less than $0.50 per cubic meter and 810 million cubic meters could be saved for less than $0.05 per cubic meter.


Conclusion

With more than the 260 water basins in the world transcending national borders, it is hardly surprising that the situation is widely perceived as being fodder for hostility. On the other hand, as UN experts point out, given water's importance for practically every aspect of life - health, environment, economy, welfare, politics and culture - it is well beyond the scope of any individual country to resolve many of the issues unilaterally.

But by far the most active UN program in water dispute resolution is its Potential Conflict to Co-operation Potential (PCCP) mission, which is in its third phase, training water professionals in the Middle East and organizing educational efforts elsewhere. Its target groups include diplomats, lawmakers, civil society, and students of water studies; by expanding knowledge of water disputes, it hopes to encourage co-operation between nations in dealing with conflicts.

WTO can also arbitrate water disputes presented by its member states when the disputes are commercial in nature. The WTO has certain groups, such as its Fisheries Center, that work to monitor and rule on relevant cases, although it is by no means the authority on conflict over water resources.

Because water is so central to agricultural trade, water disputes may be subtly implicated in WTO cases in the form of virtual water water used in the production of goods and services but not directly traded between countries. Countries with greater access to water supplies may fare better from an economic standpoint than those facing crisis, which creates the potential for conflict. Outraged by agriculture subsidies that displace domestic produce, countries facing water shortages bring their case to the WTO.

The WTO plays more of a role in agriculturally based disputes that are relevant to conflict over specific sources of water. Still, it provides an important framework that shapes the way water will play into future economic disputes.

It has been thousands of years since we started fighting with water - if we don't wisen up soon, it is going to be too late to do anything about it. All stake-holders be they NGOs working for water conservation, Upstream and Downstream Countries and Corp-orates need to co-operate and form comprehensive guidelines which optimizes water usage, reduces wastage, protects the water scarce and stressed countries.

There are no easy answers but if we don't even make an effort to find them with urgency - then probably this Blue World would be better without us.

Reference

1. Wikipedia
2. From water wars to bridges of cooperation: Exploring the peace-building potential of a shared resource
3. Risk of water wars rises with scarcity - Al Jazeera English
4. Water Conflict Chronology Timeline
5. http://www.newsweek.com/race-buy-worlds-water-73893
6. Tibet and 21st Century Water Wars - The Globalist
7. Hindu
8. Guardian
9. How to stop the water wars of 2050

@Slav Defence @WAJsal @Nihonjin1051

 

[WAJsal]

Very informative and a good read, @Shah01 , might like to add something to it.

Historical Perspective

During his reign from 2,450-2,400 BC, King of Lagash set about building boundary canals around his territory. The result was a gradual reduction in the water flowing to nearby Umma (modern-day Iraq). Fisticuffs followed.

Leonardo da Vinci and Machiavelli plan to divert Arno River away from Pisa during conflict between Pisa and Florence.

British and Hessians attacked the water system of New York and wantonly destroyed the New York water works” during the War for Independence.

Violent tensions over water are certainly nothing new, but they are on the rise.

Water is life, in past it has caused many tensions. Many have used water control as a key player.

b. India - Pakistan

At heart of Kashmir Dispute between India and Pakistan is the water. With the concurrent factors of rising populations and global climate change, the scarcity of water could make all other problems and disagreements between India and Pakistan seem quite irrelevant. Indeed, the lack of access to clean, safe drinking water not only poses a threat to hundreds of millions of people’s lives on the subcontinent, but could conceivably lead to another war.

For Pakistan, the numbers are extremely grim. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report earlier this year which declared Pakistan as one of the most “water-stressed” countries in the world, not far from being classified, “water-scarce," with less than 1,000 cubic meters of water per person per year (the same level as parched Ethiopia), down from 5,000 cubic meters in 1947. India itself is projected to become “water-stressed” by the year 2025 and “water-scarce” by 2050. Due to increased demand and dwindling supplies, Pakistan is drawing too much water from its existing reservoirs, placing the country in grave danger of future shortages. ADB estimated that Pakistan's water storage capacity -- that is, the volume of water it can rely upon in case of an emergency, amounts to a 30-day supply -- far lower than the 1000 days that are suggested for nations with similar climates, The Atlantic noted. (For comparison sake, India’s storage capacity is 120 days.)

On a per capita basis, the availability of water in Pakistan has plunged by almost 75 percent over the last 60 years, Reuters reported, largely due to soaring population growth. The World Wildlife Fund-Pakistan project estimates that by 2025, the country will have 33 percent less water than it will need at that time.

Some officials in Pakistan hold India responsible for its grave predicament. However, others do not blame India for the country’s water woes. Shamsul Mulk, the former chairman of Pakistan's Water and Power Development Authority, places the culpability squarely on incompetence and negligence by Islamabad. "Pakistan has acted like an absentee landlord vis-a-vis water reserves," he told UPI, adding that Pakistan has only constructed two large dams over the past 40 years -- and those are damaged by sedimentation. In contrast, China has built 22,000 dams during that period, while India has constructed about 4,000.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, it is all because of ignorance. Sindh and Baluchistan are usually suffering more from droughts and water scarcity, not that it can't be tackled. What the government needs to it is introduce same initiative taken by KPK government, in which they are making KPK: 356 mini hydro-power projects update , this is a great initiative and needs to be followed by the federal government, and a similar set-up needs to be introduced in GB and Punjab. Small dams act as reservoirs and aren't very expensive to make and will also tackle the problem of floods that we have, almost every year.
following up we also need to make some big dams, such as ones being made currently, although for my liking the pace is very slow. Bhasaha dam along with dams like Kalabagh dam can save our many problems, in which water scarcity also comes.
Ignorance is the real problem with us. Good to have you back.
For more information: Water scarcity, aging canal system and food security

 

[mpk1988]

Really informative. Thanks for the share!!!

 

[Spectre]

Very informative and a good read, @Shah01 , might like to add something to it.

Water is life, in past it has caused many tensions. Many have used water control as a key player.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, it is all because of ignorance. Sindh and Baluchistan are usually suffering more from droughts and water scarcity, not that it can't be tackled. What the government needs to it is introduce same initiative taken by KPK government, in which they are making KPK: 356 mini hydro-power projects update , this is a great initiative and needs to be followed by the federal government, and a similar set-up needs to be introduced in GB and Punjab. Small dams act as reservoirs and aren't very expensive to make and will also tackle the problem of floods that we have, almost every year.
following up we also need to make some big dams, such as ones being made currently, although for my liking the pace is very slow. Bhasaha dam along with dams like Kalabagh dam can save our many problems, in which water scarcity also comes.
Ignorance is the real problem with us. Good to have you back.
For more information: Water scarcity, aging canal system and food security

General Observation - What is needed is a comprehensive plan, relying on Dams and other engineering solutions may work in short term for purposes of alleviating immediate scarcity but is unlikely to improve long term water security and prevent future conflicts. Dams also have lot of environmental and social concerns hence detail assessment is required before taking such capex heavy projects. Micro - Dams, Check Dams and likes on the other hand are a good temporary solution with minimal environmental footprint. I have updated my post in this regard comparing cost savings achievable by better water management vs engineering solutions like Dams.

Water efficiency gains are often cheaper and can even save money. For instance, one study for California found that 2.5 billion cubic meters of water could be saved for less than $0.50 per cubic meter and 810 million cubic meters could be saved for less than $0.05 per cubic meter.

As suggested in Article, solution cannot be isolated from Global concerns, a comprehensive and holistic plan is required with full involvement of all stake holders. One country cannot unilaterally take steps without taking other stake-holders on board. That is asking for future trouble.

Now specific to downstream countries like Pakistan - The issue with Pakistan is that it is dependent on India and China for it's water security due to it's downstream nature. Internal Problems can be managed and corrected as you have said but they would only go so far in alleviating the concerns due to very nature of Pakistan's location.

For argument's sake - Consider it is 2050. Pakistan would be dealing with acute water shortage despite of some urgent reforms and large scale engineering construction works in form of canals, dams etc highlighted by you and @Shah01. This is inevitable - unless Pakistan drastically cut's down on water usage by adopting Israeli standards of water management.

Now India is in a similar state with hundreds of millions of it's populace parched with thirst with growing pressure to retract from existing treaties and divert Indus Water.

This is a very recipe for disaster between two nuclear neighbors. To avoid this situation efforts need to be made on WAR- FOOTING in both India and Pakistan. Sadly I see no urgency in this matter on both sides.

By the time situation becomes urgent and dire enough to warrant attention from Governments it would be too late and neither party would be in a position to sit and talk through things calmly.

We often forget - that Oil, Minerals and Metals etc are something which people can live without and still they are responsible for so much of war and misery. Just think what would happen if Water and by Extension Food becomes scarce enough.

Now is the time to take action when things are not so bad.

Apologies for being alarmist and redundant but I think the issue being discussed deserves constant repetition.

 

[Shah01]

Very good read @Spectre . Thank you for posting. I will try to give my opinion on a few points.

For Pakistan, the numbers are extremely grim. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report earlier this year which declared Pakistan as one of the most “water-stressed” countries in the world, not far from being classified, “water-scarce," with less than 1,000 cubic meters of water per person per year (the same level as parched Ethiopia), down from 5,000 cubic meters in 1947.

Yes in Pakistan the situation is extremely grim. From my research Pakistan already hit the water scarcity limit a couple of years ago. The problem is only going to get worse as the population is increasing and no comprehensive plan has been put in place to utilize the water resource efficiently. I have purposed a few infrastructure changes in my note which WAJsal linked earlier.

Water market, is the next big investment opportunity because water management reflects corporate business models. Global sales of water-related equipment and services total up to half a trillion dollars a year. But there is zero charge on withdrawing water. Indeed, most countries subsidise electricity to farmers resulting in overexploitation.

Yes it will and many firms are investing in it. I think going to charge people for pumping ground water would be going a step too far and would take a lot of energy and resources to implement. For example in Pakistan where ground water is of good quality almost every house will have a water pump. May be it would be better to have a central water storage from where the city/district is provided through pipes like in Europe etc. This way the water is commoditised at least at the household level. Thankfully Pakistan does not subsidize electricity to farmers which has helped with maintaining the aquifer to some extent. Furthermore the power outages for the past 8 years or so may have helped indirectly to recharge the aquifer to some extent I hope.

First, water shortage can be viewed as an engineering challenge, with an infrastructure solution. For cities with seasonal water shortage, more water storage from dams or other impoundments may be the solution, although changes in the seasonal distribution of water availability due to climate change may complicate matters. For perennial water shortage, long-distance transport from somewhere beyond the 100-km buffer may be a solution. For cities near the coast, desalination may be an option. Finally, cities on top of a large aquifer may choose to unsustainably mine groundwater, removing water faster than aquifer recharge and putting off water shortage by a few years or decades.

Second, water shortage can be alleviated through landscape management and more efficient use of this resource. Agriculture is the major consumptive use of water globally, and even small gains in agricultural water use efficiency might save substantial quantities for urban dwellers. Similar efficiency gains in the industrial or residential sector may also save significant quantities of water. More generally, changes in land use or land management may free up water for urban dwellers or for the environment. In part of the southwestern United States, for instance, cities sometimes pay farmers to purchase the water the farmers have traditionally put on their fields, in effect freeing up water for cities by reducing the area of irrigated agriculture. Another example is in South Africa, where tree plantations of nonnative water-hungry species are being removed to increase groundwater recharge.

The problem with option one, dealing with this using engineering, is that it's often very expensive and only works in the short term. The researchers prefer landscape management and good agricultural planning:

I think Pakistan already has a comprehensive canal system. This system need to be upgraded to modern standards and maintained. For coastal areas desalination plants would definitely be needed in near future. There is much research done in this sector at the moment but the energy and investment needed is still quite high. Although solar desalination plants would get my vote.

What is needed is a comprehensive plan, relying on Dams and other engineering solutions may work in short term for purposes of alleviating immediate scarcity but is unlikely to improve long term water security and prevent future conflicts. Dams also have lot of environmental and social concerns hence detail assessment is required before taking such capex heavy projects. Micro - Dams, Check Dams and likes on the other hand are a good temporary solution with minimal environmental footprint.

Totally agree with drafting and implementing a comprehensive plan. I think for Pakistan if my calculations are correct than a few dams (see my note, we may only need like maximum 5-7 large dams) will be able to provide for the increasing population but only if these are built by the next decade or so. I don't think it is short term if proper water management and reservoir management is implemented.

This is inevitable - unless Pakistan drastically cut's down on water usage by adopting Israeli standards of water management.

Agriculture reforms are needed in Pakistan. If Pakistan adopts modern techniques in farming then there is enough water to cater for the growing population. Israel has done much research on water conservation in agriculture. They have been experimenting on different crops and developing new seeds which could resist drought and salinity (salinity would be another big problem in agriculture).
Furthermore if the Indus treaty with India stands then I don't see any conflict happening in this region over water.

Sindh and Baluchistan are usually suffering more from droughts and water scarcity, not that it can't be tackled.

Yes agree hence I purpose in my note for one large scale reservoir for each province. You see Bhit dam could easily store 15.5 maf (almost equivalent to our current storage!) of water and this storage can be further extended.

 

[Arya Desa]

We don't really have a problem. If a time comes, we can divert the Indus and Brahmaputra to the Indian heartland. Also our rivers are in the process of being linked.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

We don't really have a problem. If a time comes, we can divert the Indus and Brahmaputra to the Indian heartland. Also our rivers are in the process of being linked.

How can you divert the Brahmaputra if most of it is in China?

Diverting major international rivers is a cause for war. Even we don't even think of diverting the Brahmaputra or the Mekong.

Right now the problem of Asian countries dealing with water scarcity is the 1. global warming 2. large populations with large domestic agricultural programs.

Eventually, we need a large desalination program and upgrading agricultural efficiency.

 

[Sky lord]

The eventual solution must come from cheap desalination of sea water. The planet surface is 3/4 water, it's just that we don't have enough fresh water. I feel a technological breakthrough will occur in this generation esp. In light of California reeling under drought. Necessity being the mother of invention and all.

Surprise that Saudi needs agriculture, why not stick to selling oil and buy agricultural products from countries that have the means to grow crops.

PS - spectre great read