The aim of this note is to look at the available water resources, water conveyance and food security for the growing population. Furthermore it will try to estimate the cost of upgrading the current canal system and expanding/adding new reservoirs.
The Indus river system is very seasonal and most of the water flows during the monsoon season with a total flow of about 142 maf (million acre feet). Population of Pakistan has been growing at a fast pace and due to the steep growth in population country has hit the water scarcity limit a few years ago. Available water per capita will keep on decreasing as the population increases every year. The growth in population means we need more food to cater for the growing numbers. The below chart shows data from 1960 to 2055. I have done a forecast from 2015 onwards based on the current population growth rate of 1.6% deceasing to a 1.1% (linear reduction) by 2055. I have also assumed that our surface water availability stays the same at 142 maf.
This is a very serious matter unless we get our act together and build large scale reservoirs, upgrade the canal system and initiate water conservation techniques in agriculture, households and industry, we will face some grave problems in the near future. Pakistan has a very large irrigation system with 3 major storage reservoirs, 19 barrages, 12 inter-river link canals, 45 independent irrigation canal commands and over 140,000 watercourses. Canal Systems measuring 58,500 kilometres, some 1.6 million kilometres of watercourses and field irrigation channels. This canal irrigation system is a very old and is obsolete for today’s requirements. The canal system can carry about 105 maf of water. This mean on average 35 maf of surface water is drained to the sea. The canal system further loses about 52 maf during transportation (due to seepage and evaporation). Those two figures make up about 2/3 of the available surface water. So farms are getting about 55 maf of water. The farmers also pump about 48 maf of underground water.
The cultivated area in Pakistan is about 27.5 million hectares. This includes areas for all the crops as well forests/orchards. The data is taken from 2010 census.
I have looked at the major crops cultivated in Pakistan together with the water requirements for each crop and total water requirement. The table below shows minimum and maximum water needs for each crop. I have calculated the total water need for these crops. I have tried to include all the crops and assumed fodder/silage area to be 2.5 million hectares. The table below has values taken from 2008/09.
As you can see from the crops produced we will need at least 90.5 maf and maximum requirement is about 142.2 maf (which is about the same as total surface water available). This means we will need to reform our agriculture and update the canals system to cater for the growing population. Links to further reading below:
http://www.fao.org/docrep/s2022e/s2022e02.htm
http://www.agricorner.com/production-status-of-major-vegetables-in-pakistan-their-problems-and-suggestions/
http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/agriculture_statistics/publications/area_and_production_by_districts_1981-82to2008-09/Area%20and%20Production%20By%20Districts%20for%2028%20Years.PDF
I have also compared the average yield of each crop in USA to Pakistan and there is much improvement to be made. This difference in production could be due to a number of reason i.e. seed selection, water availability, fertilizer, pesticide and crop rotation. Simply rotating crops could increase the yield and increase resistance to pests. In UK it is advised to rotate crops in such a way that a field is only used after 3-4 years for the same crop. In contrast Pakistan has no such practice. We may have one of the worst yields for rice. We can effectively triple the yield by employing modern techniques and seeds. Other crops such as onions, potatoes, sugarcane and maize can have vastly improved yields. These increases alone will be able to cater for millions of people. The table below shows a comparison between yields and how much production can be increased if yields are matched with USA:
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/cropan15.pdf
So it is important that the agriculture sector is reformed and modernized with an utmost priority. Educate farmers to grow crops intelligently (i.e. less water intensive crops), land grading, better use of pesticides, fertilizers and crop rotation. Introduce drip irrigation across the whole country (large scale farmers can employ drip irrigation at any time).
The government should also priorities the building of new reservoirs. Each province should have at least one large scale flood control reservoir. I will list a few sites below with storage capacities:
Soan dam, Rohtas dam and Akhori are in Punjab, Khyber dam in KPK, Bhit dam in Sindh and Nari Bolan dam in Baluchistan, Dasu and Basha are in GB. If these dams are built then the storage capacity will be more than 101 maf. I would stress that we should build all of these (only 8 of them). The work can be started on Bhit dam and Nari Bolan as they won’t be controversial in any sense. Work on Dasu should take priority as the funds are arranged. These dams will act as flood control measure as well as there are hydel and irrigation benefits. This will enable us to utilize the 35 maf of water which is drained to the sea on average. This will also insure that there is enough water in Indus River to maintain the delta.
Furthermore the canal system should be upgraded (lined). Careful planning is needed in order to line the canals as canal system and rain water recharges the aquifer. When the canals are lined the rate of recharge will be very low. On the other hand this will save about half the water lost in conveyance so there could be 25-30 maf of extra water available. There are over 1.1 million tube wells in Pakistan and ground water is mined extensively and this is not sustainable. Underground water management should be developed and farmers should be educated.
I have estimated cost of lining the link canals. I have based the cost on the Ghazi Barotha Canal which is 51.9 Km long with a capacity of 1600 Cumecs and costed $366 million in 2002. I know this cost is outdated but Ghazi Barotha canal was constructed brand new although we already have the link canals (only need to line them and work on these will be much less due to no cost of acquiring land, digging etc).
I have seen in Punjab watercourses have been lined during the past decade but much work still need to be done. I can further estimate the cost of upgrading the 45 canal systems if someone is keen to know. The benefit of these would be many fold and it will breathe a new life into the agriculture. These reforms/upgrades will also insure water and food security for the next generation. Your comments and thoughts are welcomed.
http://www.academia.edu/12545182/Irrigation_system_of_Pakistan
http://irrigation.punjab.gov.pk/rabi.aspx?yr=2015
http://fatehuk.blogspot.co.uk/
Pakistan Flood Control System
CHAPTER 2: CROP WATER NEEDS
@Daneshmand , @WAJsal , @niaz , @third eye
The Indus river system is very seasonal and most of the water flows during the monsoon season with a total flow of about 142 maf (million acre feet). Population of Pakistan has been growing at a fast pace and due to the steep growth in population country has hit the water scarcity limit a few years ago. Available water per capita will keep on decreasing as the population increases every year. The growth in population means we need more food to cater for the growing numbers. The below chart shows data from 1960 to 2055. I have done a forecast from 2015 onwards based on the current population growth rate of 1.6% deceasing to a 1.1% (linear reduction) by 2055. I have also assumed that our surface water availability stays the same at 142 maf.
This is a very serious matter unless we get our act together and build large scale reservoirs, upgrade the canal system and initiate water conservation techniques in agriculture, households and industry, we will face some grave problems in the near future. Pakistan has a very large irrigation system with 3 major storage reservoirs, 19 barrages, 12 inter-river link canals, 45 independent irrigation canal commands and over 140,000 watercourses. Canal Systems measuring 58,500 kilometres, some 1.6 million kilometres of watercourses and field irrigation channels. This canal irrigation system is a very old and is obsolete for today’s requirements. The canal system can carry about 105 maf of water. This mean on average 35 maf of surface water is drained to the sea. The canal system further loses about 52 maf during transportation (due to seepage and evaporation). Those two figures make up about 2/3 of the available surface water. So farms are getting about 55 maf of water. The farmers also pump about 48 maf of underground water.
The cultivated area in Pakistan is about 27.5 million hectares. This includes areas for all the crops as well forests/orchards. The data is taken from 2010 census.
I have looked at the major crops cultivated in Pakistan together with the water requirements for each crop and total water requirement. The table below shows minimum and maximum water needs for each crop. I have calculated the total water need for these crops. I have tried to include all the crops and assumed fodder/silage area to be 2.5 million hectares. The table below has values taken from 2008/09.
As you can see from the crops produced we will need at least 90.5 maf and maximum requirement is about 142.2 maf (which is about the same as total surface water available). This means we will need to reform our agriculture and update the canals system to cater for the growing population. Links to further reading below:
http://www.fao.org/docrep/s2022e/s2022e02.htm
http://www.agricorner.com/production-status-of-major-vegetables-in-pakistan-their-problems-and-suggestions/
http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/agriculture_statistics/publications/area_and_production_by_districts_1981-82to2008-09/Area%20and%20Production%20By%20Districts%20for%2028%20Years.PDF
I have also compared the average yield of each crop in USA to Pakistan and there is much improvement to be made. This difference in production could be due to a number of reason i.e. seed selection, water availability, fertilizer, pesticide and crop rotation. Simply rotating crops could increase the yield and increase resistance to pests. In UK it is advised to rotate crops in such a way that a field is only used after 3-4 years for the same crop. In contrast Pakistan has no such practice. We may have one of the worst yields for rice. We can effectively triple the yield by employing modern techniques and seeds. Other crops such as onions, potatoes, sugarcane and maize can have vastly improved yields. These increases alone will be able to cater for millions of people. The table below shows a comparison between yields and how much production can be increased if yields are matched with USA:
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/cropan15.pdf
So it is important that the agriculture sector is reformed and modernized with an utmost priority. Educate farmers to grow crops intelligently (i.e. less water intensive crops), land grading, better use of pesticides, fertilizers and crop rotation. Introduce drip irrigation across the whole country (large scale farmers can employ drip irrigation at any time).
The government should also priorities the building of new reservoirs. Each province should have at least one large scale flood control reservoir. I will list a few sites below with storage capacities:
Soan dam, Rohtas dam and Akhori are in Punjab, Khyber dam in KPK, Bhit dam in Sindh and Nari Bolan dam in Baluchistan, Dasu and Basha are in GB. If these dams are built then the storage capacity will be more than 101 maf. I would stress that we should build all of these (only 8 of them). The work can be started on Bhit dam and Nari Bolan as they won’t be controversial in any sense. Work on Dasu should take priority as the funds are arranged. These dams will act as flood control measure as well as there are hydel and irrigation benefits. This will enable us to utilize the 35 maf of water which is drained to the sea on average. This will also insure that there is enough water in Indus River to maintain the delta.
Furthermore the canal system should be upgraded (lined). Careful planning is needed in order to line the canals as canal system and rain water recharges the aquifer. When the canals are lined the rate of recharge will be very low. On the other hand this will save about half the water lost in conveyance so there could be 25-30 maf of extra water available. There are over 1.1 million tube wells in Pakistan and ground water is mined extensively and this is not sustainable. Underground water management should be developed and farmers should be educated.
I have estimated cost of lining the link canals. I have based the cost on the Ghazi Barotha Canal which is 51.9 Km long with a capacity of 1600 Cumecs and costed $366 million in 2002. I know this cost is outdated but Ghazi Barotha canal was constructed brand new although we already have the link canals (only need to line them and work on these will be much less due to no cost of acquiring land, digging etc).
I have seen in Punjab watercourses have been lined during the past decade but much work still need to be done. I can further estimate the cost of upgrading the 45 canal systems if someone is keen to know. The benefit of these would be many fold and it will breathe a new life into the agriculture. These reforms/upgrades will also insure water and food security for the next generation. Your comments and thoughts are welcomed.
http://www.academia.edu/12545182/Irrigation_system_of_Pakistan
http://irrigation.punjab.gov.pk/rabi.aspx?yr=2015
http://fatehuk.blogspot.co.uk/
Pakistan Flood Control System
CHAPTER 2: CROP WATER NEEDS
@Daneshmand , @WAJsal , @niaz , @third eye
