Was Russia enticed to invade Ukarine?

[Goenitz]

Hi members,

It is just a thought that somehow US wanted Russia to indulge in a preferrably long war so that it can drian Russia as a threat to 'real' NATO (pun) so that It can focus on Pacific. China had been world's workhorse since centuries. It got idle in 19th and 20th century but regained its ancient status. See this documentary to understand more.

Now, if there is any power which can challange the US is China. China has become economic power and expanding its Naval and missile capabilities. However, China's open access to Pacific and Indian occean is 'blocked' by its neighbours. US or its allies 'controlling' seas through Philapines, Taiwan, Okinawa, SK, India, Australia etc means that it is pivotal for the US to dominate seas so that it has some bargain against China's trade. We know that tarde mainly occurrs through sea. So think sea security is a cuurency or 'tribute' which can be cashed China's trade.

So, the win-win for the US is that either Ukarine become part of NATO and Russia accepts that, or Russia invades it. As IK said the US politicians can have 'good wars' as long as it can benefit the US. So, Russian invasion can be a good omen for the EU as it can prolong, even if it doesn't Russia will be sanctioned. Therefore, even if Russian increases its trade with China, (China cannot be sanctioned for that) so securing China's lifeline (sea routes) is like controlling Russia's life line. I know 70-80% EU's gas imports are from Russia, but Russia won't stop that as it is good money.

Your thoughts.

@gambit @PanzerKiel @Joe Shearer

 

[tower9]

I agree. Putin lost the plot. Even if he wins it will be a Pyrrhic victory.

 

[Zhukov]

No sir. If US fails to intervene in this situation. It will be a big blow to its credibility for Europeans. Ghosts of Soviet Union arent gone from their minds. USA was the long defender of europe against Communism. They might accidently free Europe from addiction of the Drug of US provided security Umbrella.
Germans must be very nervous right now.

 

[tower9]

No sir. If US fails to intervene in this situation. It will be a big blow to its credibility for Europeans. Ghosts of Soviet Union arent gone from their minds. USA was the long defender of europe against Communism. They might accidently free Europe from addiction of the Drug of US provided security Umbrella.
Germans must be very nervous right now.

Russia is invading Ukraine not Austria. The fact that Russia has to fight to keep a country that was the breadbasket of its empire within its sphere of influence just shows you how far Russia has fallen and how deep the US has penetrated Russia’s sphere.

 

[Joe Shearer]

This is my preliminary response, but truth be told, I am thinking about it.

I think it was just ineptitude.
I think it is the pusillanimous response of a president who should never have been elected to this position, being totally senile and incompetent.
I think, speaking as an historian, that I am lucky to have lived to see the end of the British Empire, of the Soviet Empire, and now, of the American Empire.
I am reminded that American intelligence (leaving out the oxymoron jokes that are tiresome after a while) has been consistent, for the best part of a century now. It has been consistently wrong, it has been consistently wicked.
I should also like to hear from @PanzerKiel and @gambit; would they agree that the US has not won a war since 1945?
Finally, from thinking that it was collusion between the Chinese and the Russians, I have begun to feel that China - almost as much as India - is totally flummoxed about the situation, and has no clue about what to do next. I was extrapolating it to mean that Taiwan would be a target next, but was vehemently opposed by @Nilgiri, who stated quite bluntly that Chinese culture and administration was completely against this. I don't know....

 

[jamahir]

1. @Goenitz, NATO may use this opportunity to increase pressure on Russian units in Syria and Libya and may also try to assassinate Russia's ally, Bashar al Assad, via its Al Qaeda or "Muslim" Brotherhood allies.

2. I don't think Russia will be much bothered by Western sanctions. I wrote a bit on this yesterday here. And you are right that Russia will deepen its cooperation with China. And you in Britain can tell me this if its the winter season in Western Europe because that region gets some of its gas for heating and maybe power generation from Russia so the region cannot afford to launch military action against Russia ATM because Russia will immediately stop the gas which will put Western Europeans into day-to-day living difficulties. IIRC Germany has said that it will be now difficult for it to sign new gas deals with Russia which means it doesn't want to antagonize Russia currently and it will let the Ukraine war play out in whichever way and that any new deal with Russia may come.

 

[Zhukov]

Russia is invading Ukraine not Austria. The fact that Russia has to fight to keep a country that was the breadbasket of its empire within its sphere of influence just shows you how far Russia has fallen and how deep the US has penetrated Russia’s sphere.

And Nations are very proactive when it comes to even preceived threat. Of course Russia is nothing compared to Soviet Union. But an emboldening Russia will make Europeans Nervous. As this is the only boogyman sold to them as credible threat by their leaders

 

[Goenitz]

No sir. If US fails to intervene in this situation. It will be a big blow to its credibility for Europeans. Ghosts of Soviet Union arent gone from their minds. USA was the long defender of europe against Communism. They might accidently free Europe from addiction of the Drug of US provided security Umbrella.
Germans must be very nervous right now.

I had that in mind. But Russia hasn't threatened the core interests of NATO. That is why I said 'real' NATO. Also, the US 'iamge' has been damaged already when they negotiated with IEA.

So, Ukarine can be spared. Yes, the US paved way for war and didn't arm the Ukaranian but risked its reputation.

As this is the only boogyman sold to them as credible threat by their leaders

Hence, the NATO and EU can depend on the US aagin, and tow its line. See France submarine fiasco. It also means, more FDI to the US as the US is safe for investors.

 

[peagle]

Hi members,

It is just a thought that somehow US wanted Russia to indulge in a preferrably long war so that it can drian Russia as a threat to 'real' NATO (pun) so that It can focus on Pacific. China had been world's workhorse since centuries. It got idle in 19th and 20th century but regained its ancient status. See this documentary to understand more.

Now, if there is any power which can challange the US is China. China has become economic power and expanding its Naval and missile capabilities. However, China's open access to Pacific and Indian occean is 'blocked' by its neighbours. US or its allies 'controlling' seas through Philapines, Taiwan, Okinawa, SK, India, Australia etc means that it is pivotal for the US to dominate seas so that it has some bargain against China's trade. We know that tarde mainly occurrs through sea. So think sea security is a cuurency or 'tribute' which can be cashed China's trade.

So, the win-win for the US is that either Ukarine become part of NATO and Russia accepts that, or Russia invades it. As IK said the US politicians can have 'good wars' as long as it can benefit the US. So, Russian invasion can be a good omen for the EU as it can prolong, even if it doesn't Russia will be sanctioned. Therefore, even if Russian increases its trade with China, (China cannot be sanctioned for that) so securing China's lifeline (sea routes) is like controlling Russia's life line. I know 70-80% EU's gas imports are from Russia, but Russia won't stop that as it is good money.

Your thoughts.

@gambit @PanzerKiel @Joe Shearer

I agree with the premise of your statement but for different reasons. And, I think America has made a gargantuan miscalculation, or they decided it was a acceptable risk for a bigger gain.

They have just taken on an idiotic fight with Russia for sake of a nation they are not responsible for, they already failed in Crimea, how did they ever think it would be different this time around.

Unless, they, read the Americans, foresaw all this but calculated this as a perfect opportunity to bring the European nations inline with American policy. The Europeans were wavering with regards to China, and after Trump the Western alliance was shaky. The Americans needed an excuse to renew it's leadership role, and grab a reason with which to knock the Europeans on their heads.


They have achieved their aims, because Europe is united for an anti Russia stance. But there are consequences, which will result in increased influence and importance of China in global affairs.
Russia is not a minnow that can be put in it's place. Unless tamed, it will continue to breathe down the European necks. Russia cannot be tamed by anyone, especially not when or if it has China covering it's back.


With the Ukraine crises, the west, especially the Americans will pay greater attention to European defence and the Indo-pacific will receive lesser attention then it would have otherwise.

The European countries will bolster their defence spending and capabilities, meaning, for continuous economic prosperity they will find it difficult to isolate or cut-off China. They will require continuous engagement with China for economic growth.

The western world, will also rely on China to pacify Russia, and to keep Russia engaged. they may sanction Russia to the eyeballs, but they still need leverage. Something or someone who can talk/convince Russia, that's China.

With the western attention elsewhere, India will feel less confident, because there will be lot of change in the calculus of Americans on how they choose to deal with China. Plus, India will have to find a delicate balance between the Russians and the western world. The Americans are used to getting their own way, and don't like fence sitters.

So far, they have tolerated Indian reliance on Russian weapons, because it can't be helped, but increasingly they will expect India to choose. The billions of dollars that flow from India to Russian defence industry helps to keep the Russians strong against the west, such a situation is less likely to be accepted in the long term.



Well done, America, nicely played.
But, the game isn't over, not by a long shot.

 

[Goenitz]

And you in Britain can tell me this if its the winter season in Western Europe because that region gets some of its gas for heating and maybe power generation from Russia so the region cannot afford to launch military action against Russia ATM because Russia will immediately stop the gas which will put Western Europeans into day-to-day living difficulties

Without gas there will be many deaths but mainly the routine life will be disturbed. The office, resturants, malls etc will be cold and unsafe for work as Health and Safety regulations. I think it is 22C work temperature, wheras ambient is 10 C nowadasy.

Unless, they, read the Americans, foresaw all this but calculated this as a perfect opportunity to bring the European nations inline with American policy.

Yes.

The European countries will bolster their defence spending and capabilities, meaning, for continuous economic prosperity they will find it difficult to isolate or cut-off China.

Yes.
Also, see Russian-Japanese tension. Japan will be more dependent on the US now.

Well done, America, nicely played.
But, the game isn't over, not by a long shot.

 

[S.Y.A]

This is my preliminary response, but truth be told, I am thinking about it.

America's soft power may have eroded a bit, but it is still the strongest and most advanced country. the end of this empire is still a long way away, the best we can hope for is a multi-polar world.

 

[Joe Shearer]

America's soft power may have eroded a bit, but it is still a strongest and most advanced country. the end of this empire is still a long way away, the best we can hope for is a multi-polar world.

Fair assessment, but I have to point out, from personal observation, that when the end comes, it comes very rapidly, almost unexpectedly.

 

[S.Y.A]

Fair assessment, but I have to point out, from personal observation, that when the end comes, it comes very rapidly, almost unexpectedly.

USA's soft underbelly is its internal politics: lack of medical facilities, lack of infrastructure upgradation, basically a general disregard for their citizen's well being. they also leak a LOT of money on defense development and procurement, that is perhaps because they have a lot of it, and do not face a challenge as of yet.

 

[fallschirmjager786]

Ukraine Through Russia’s Eyes

The Kremlin’s pre-invasion research suggested Ukraine was fertile ground for subversion, but the shock of war may transform Ukrainians’ willingness to resist in unpredictable ways.

rusi.org

Nobody enticed the Russians. They have been planning for this for a while, Trump was supposed to cut off supplies to Ukraine including missiles. Goes to show why the Russians have been advancing the way they have been. He's aiming for Eastern Ukraine and Kieve for regime change and a land bridge between Crimea and odessa to the West.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

America's soft power may have eroded a bit, but it is still the strongest and most advanced country. the end of this empire is still a long way away, the best we can hope for is a multi-polar world.

The strength of the US is her ability to keep her citizens as dumb as possible and preoccupied with some sport or reality show.