War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries

[jhungary]

Assumptions by CSIS need to be re-examined and the simulations run again. Japan is essential to the defense of Taiwan, so diplomatic overtures by the U.S. and China will be crucial to swaying Japan. A lot may come down to ASW.

The narrator of the following video is himself a Taiwanese Australian if I’m not mistaken.

It's not that simple.

As I said before, for China, it's important for them to not drag US or Japan in if they want a chance to win this war, the problem is, Japan will be a tip-over if US were involved, half because that would mean Japan will be targeted if China attack US bases in Asia. And the other half is that would mean instability in their own backyard.

On the other hand, unless US did not care about Taiwan, they will send their support to Taiwan, in reality, most country would do, in my own war game, by the end of the game, China would have been at war with Philippine, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand along with US and Japan. The problem is these country sees US as the counterbalance of the growing China, and the prospect of US letting go is not looked well on them.

There are going to be 2 issues for the Chinese in this war, number 1 issue is how would the PLAN secure the route from Mainland China to Taiwan, and the other is how China would have interdicted the route the other side used to supply Taiwan.

And as I pointed out before, it's not hard nor complicated to land on Taiwan, but it is when it come to supplying and maintaining security of your supply line because without that, you are going to lose whatever you put up on shore. And that would have taken most PLAN active warship facing a combine JASMF, USN, ROCN and RAN task force. Which mean unless China have material/technological advantage over the aforementioned force, you can either do 1 but not both.

And LOL at that "Taiwanese-Australian" video. He uses assumption to point out someone else;s assumption is wrong, I don't see any military science basis of his assumption to begin with, effectively what he is saying is if things did not go CSIS way, China will win........Well....Yes, but that's an educated guess by people who know their stuff.....

 

[FuturePAF]

It's not that simple.

As I said before, for China, it's important for them to not drag US or Japan in if they want a chance to win this war, the problem is, Japan will be a tip-over if US were involved, half because that would mean Japan will be targeted if China attack US bases in Asia. And the other half is that would mean instability in their own backyard.

On the other hand, unless US did not care about Taiwan, they will send their support to Taiwan, in reality, most country would do, in my own war game, by the end of the game, China would have been at war with Philippine, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand along with US and Japan. The problem is these country sees US as the counterbalance of the growing China, and the prospect of US letting go is not looked well on them.

There are going to be 2 issues for the Chinese in this war, number 1 issue is how would the PLAN secure the route from Mainland China to Taiwan, and the other is how China would have interdicted the route the other side used to supply Taiwan.

And as I pointed out before, it's not hard nor complicated to land on Taiwan, but it is when it come to supplying and maintaining security of your supply line because without that, you are going to lose whatever you put up on shore. And that would have taken most PLAN active warship facing a combine JASMF, USN, ROCN and RAN task force. Which mean unless China have material/technological advantage over the aforementioned force, you can either do 1 but not both.

And LOL at that "Taiwanese-Australian" video. He uses assumption to point out someone else;s assumption is wrong, I don't see any military science basis of his assumption to begin with, effectively what he is saying is if things did not go CSIS way, China will win........Well....Yes, but that's an educated guess by people who know their stuff.....

What about the falklands option; declaring an exclusion zone around Taiwan (Republic of China), as they seem to have rehearsed in 2022, requiring all ships entering “Chinese” waters to be inspected. They could operate within the zone and absorb the first attacks by non-Taiwanese forces, giving them casus bellum. Any major supplies to Taiwan would have to be before hostilities commence.

Yes, logistics will be the most crucial element. Therefore, unless we see a ramp up of helicopter, transport aircraft, and landing craft production, it doesn’t look like China will go to war anything soon. China will also have to act fast, a plan executed in 6-12 hours; shock and awe to stay ahead of their oppositions ooda loop political decision making cycle. But China has its own dilemma, to not be perceived as the aggressor. To not lose face. So a blockade could drag on for weeks, giving enough time for a coalition to be formed against them. If the flag really goes up, they may not care about face, as they have seen Putin’s failure in the begin of the Ukraine has cost the Russians so much.

 

[Kompromat]

China does not need to invade Taiwan.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

As per the past experiences, china will not be able to occupied the Taiwan.

China should learn from Ukraine and Russia war...... Taiwan will be getting fully support compared to what Ukraine is getting...

It wi be a disaster for china if they will try anything silly

 

[jhungary]

What about the falklands option; declaring an exclusion zone around Taiwan (Republic of China), as they seem to have rehearsed in 2022, requiring all ships entering “Chinese” waters to be inspected. They could operate within the zone and absorb the first attacks by non-Taiwanese forces, giving them casus bellum. Any major supplies to Taiwan would have to be before hostilities commence.

Exclusion zone won't work because you are talking about when UK do that in Argentina, you are looking at stopping third party to engage, but in this case, you are talking about excluding US traffic, there are not much you can do if China declare an exclusion zone and inspect US shipping into and out of Taiwan, you can't turn them around, you will have to shoot at them, and thus bringing the US into the war.

On the other hand, you can't possibly have enough ship to hold the landing zone and execute an exclusion zone at the same time, Taiwan unlike Falkland is a fairly big island, if Chinese want to enforce the exclusion zone, then they would have to split their Naval Force into two (at least 2) groups. Once for sea interdiction around Taiwan strait the other would have to go around the island of Taiwan to enforce such zone

this would work if you do not expect US to support Taiwan, hence you don't have to shoot at US flagged shipping, or US will not engage in the war directly. It would not work if you are expecting the US and its allies to fight a naval war with China.

Yes, logistics will be the most crucial element. Therefore, unless we see a ramp up of helicopter, transport aircraft, and landing craft production, it doesn’t look like China will go to war anything soon. China will also have to act fast, a plan executed in 6-12 hours; shock and awe to stay ahead of their oppositions ooda loop political decision making cycle. But China has its own dilemma, to not be perceived as the aggressor. To not lose face. So a blockade could drag on for weeks, giving enough time for a coalition to be formed against them. If the flag really goes up, they may not care about face, as they have seen Putin’s failure in the begin of the Ukraine has cost the Russians so much.

The problem as I pointed out before is, you will have to expand your naval capability exponentially if you want to increase the size of the invasion force. Remember every asset needed protection in war, so by increasing the troop-carrying capability aspect of the force, you also have to increase the support behind such force, It is estimated if China want to double the invasion force, you would need to quadruple the logistic support and security network in order to support that, every time you expanded on something you pull some support element off it. That is the reason why Russia failed to take Ukraine in the first 2 months.

On the other hand, there won't be shock and awe in a near peer foe like Taiwan, because you really can't hide your build up in the 21st century, the moment you assemble your troop, you are giving out some hint to the other side you are coming to get them, I mean in this case, if China started to assemble an invasion force, then Taiwan will know all bets are off, and they will be prepared accordingly. I mean, yes, you may execute a plan within 6 to 12 hours (very unlikely by the way) but that plan would take 3 to 4 months to get hold of, and Taiwan would probably know from day 1, which make China can execute that plan within 6 to 12 hours unlikely........

 

[FuturePAF]

Exclusion zone won't work because you are talking about when UK do that in Argentina, you are looking at stopping third party to engage, but in this case, you are talking about excluding US traffic, there are not much you can do if China declare an exclusion zone and inspect US shipping into and out of Taiwan, you can't turn them around, you will have to shoot at them, and thus bringing the US into the war.

On the other hand, you can't possibly have enough ship to hold the landing zone and execute an exclusion zone at the same time, Taiwan unlike Falkland is a fairly big island, if Chinese want to enforce the exclusion zone, then they would have to split their Naval Force into two (at least 2) groups. Once for sea interdiction around Taiwan strait the other would have to go around the island of Taiwan to enforce such zone

this would work if you do not expect US to support Taiwan, hence you don't have to shoot at US flagged shipping, or US will not engage in the war directly. It would not work if you are expecting the US and its allies to fight a naval war with China.


The problem as I pointed out before is, you will have to expand your naval capability exponentially if you want to increase the size of the invasion force. Remember every asset needed protection in war, so by increasing the troop-carrying capability aspect of the force, you also have to increase the support behind such force, It is estimated if China want to double the invasion force, you would need to quadruple the logistic support and security network in order to support that, every time you expanded on something you pull some support element off it. That is the reason why Russia failed to take Ukraine in the first 2 months.

On the other hand, there won't be shock and awe in a near peer foe like Taiwan, because you really can't hide your build up in the 21st century, the moment you assemble your troop, you are giving out some hint to the other side you are coming to get them, I mean in this case, if China started to assemble an invasion force, then Taiwan will know all bets are off, and they will be prepared accordingly. I mean, yes, you may execute a plan within 6 to 12 hours (very unlikely by the way) but that plan would take 3 to 4 months to get hold of, and Taiwan would probably know from day 1, which make China can execute that plan within 6 to 12 hours unlikely........

I agree they would have to increase their capacity many fold, but a lot of it could be dual use platforms, with trained crews, just waiting for the go ahead, like the maritime militia aka fishing fleet.

A lot of fast platforms, used in commercial trade could be repurposed more quickly.
Extensive use of helicopters and paradrops (on Taiwan’s mountainous terrain) like the invasion of Grenada could also be a rapid way to move troops.

The buildup will be noted but just like the PLA buildup over the last few decades, it has been out in the open.

The exclusion zone plan, as I have read other articles mention, would allow civilian supply ships to get through but restrict suspected military supply ships from getting through. Yes, Taiwan is a large island. A blockade would probably require at least 100 ships, with hundreds more to protect the actual invasion landing force to account for attrition.

 

[jhungary]

I agree they would have to increase their capacity many fold, but a lot of it could be dual use platforms, with trained crews, just waiting for the go ahead, like the maritime militia aka fishing fleet.

A lot of fast platforms, used in commercial trade could be repurposed more quickly.
Extensive use of helicopters and paradrops (on Taiwan’s mountainous terrain) like the invasion of Grenada could also be a rapid way to move troops.

Well, again, you can only use dual use platform assuming you can take the dock intact, otherwise it would be 2 to 3 months before you can do it, by then you would have already lost (I hanged on by 58 days by the way) You can't support your troops inland if you cannot bring those dual use ship onshore and process them, and unless you have specifically designed well deck and roll on roll off capability, you can't just park your ship on the beach and then unload it to support your troop. And if you cannot do it, that would mean you will have a traffic jam up all the way to both shore because the supply chain depends on whether or not you can unload the first ship quickly then move on to the next.

On the other hand, you cannot dual use "Security Ship" if you expand your beachhead, then you must pull Frigate and Destroyer off your main site for security, what we learn from Snake island is that if your beach head is going to be bombarded day and night as long as they are within enemy artillery range, you can't set up anything because unlike back in WW2, your enemy will know where you landed and what you landed since we have 24 hours SAT surveillance. And you need to come up with 250km while the Taiwanese can hit you at 80km on the other side of the island. You don't just fight on and out of the beachhead, you would also need to contest with that. And that is before you put air and sea power into equation.

The buildup will be noted but just like the PLA buildup over the last few decades, it has been out in the open.

The exclusion zone plan, as I have read other articles mention, would allow civilian supply ships to get through but restrict suspected military supply ships from getting through. Yes, Taiwan is a large island. A blockade would probably require at least 100 ships, with hundreds more to protect the actual invasion landing force to account for attrition.

No, it's an amphibious operation, as soon as you assemble more than 2 LHD/LHA and a bunch of Landing craft LCAC and so on opposite the Taiwanese Coast, the Taiwanese would have known something is up, and you are going to need all those to move into position before you can attack, you cannot launch an amphibius assault from South of China or North of China, and the moment you move anything you would only need for real battle (like medical supplies, munition, senior commander HQ) you know something is up, and you need time to move all those into places before you launch. One of the reasons why US know Russia is going to attack 4 months ago is the US is tracking Russian hospital, they saw a lot of Medical Supply, Blood Product being move to Belarus and staging area purposed for "exercise" the problem is, you don't need real blood and medicine for exercise, and if Ukraine heed to the advice and mobilised back then, we may have a different battle outcome now.

On the other hand, you can't really "Blockade" Taiwan with 100 ships. It is just too board the coastline to do. You are talking about a continuous 500+ km coastline, and if you put Anti-ship missile that was in Taiwanese stock (Harpoon, Hsiung Feng), you are going to need to push that around 100km outside that 500km coastline, or Moskva would happen to PLAN and 100km is already a very generous discount, because Harpoon have 150-220km range and the domestic AShM goes up to 300km range, and Taiwan have thousands of those. How are you going to blockade 50,000 sq kilometer area with just 100 or so ship? That's impossible even US did not intervene.

 

[Oldman1]

Why would Japan jump in between China takeover of Taiwan?

Unless USN is plan on hitting industrial zones in China, China will pump military hardware faster than it’s will take US to ship supplies across Pacific Ocean. Which mean no matter the technological advantage, or percentage of US naval presence, Taiwan is indefensible.

TBH, I even doubt US will risk it Navy for Taiwan.

Thats a good question. Why would they? Fear of being next? It be asking why Poland is willing to help Ukraine? Or Pakistan willing to help Afghanistan during the 1980s.

 

[FuturePAF]

Well, again, you can only use dual use platform assuming you can take the dock intact, otherwise it would be 2 to 3 months before you can do it, by then you would have already lost (I hanged on by 58 days by the way) You can't support your troops inland if you cannot bring those dual use ship onshore and process them, and unless you have specifically designed well deck and roll on roll off capability, you can't just park your ship on the beach and then unload it to support your troop. And if you cannot do it, that would mean you will have a traffic jam up all the way to both shore because the supply chain depends on whether or not you can unload the first ship quickly then move on to the next.

On the other hand, you cannot dual use "Security Ship" if you expand your beachhead, then you must pull Frigate and Destroyer off your main site for security, what we learn from Snake island is that if your beach head is going to be bombarded day and night as long as they are within enemy artillery range, you can't set up anything because unlike back in WW2, your enemy will know where you landed and what you landed since we have 24 hours SAT surveillance. And you need to come up with 250km while the Taiwanese can hit you at 80km on the other side of the island. You don't just fight on and out of the beachhead, you would also need to contest with that. And that is before you put air and sea power into equation.





No, it's an amphibious operation, as soon as you assemble more than 2 LHD/LHA and a bunch of Landing craft LCAC and so on opposite the Taiwanese Coast, the Taiwanese would have known something is up, and you are going to need all those to move into position before you can attack, you cannot launch an amphibius assault from South of China or North of China, and the moment you move anything you would only need for real battle (like medical supplies, munition, senior commander HQ) you know something is up, and you need time to move all those into places before you launch. One of the reasons why US know Russia is going to attack 4 months ago is the US is tracking Russian hospital, they saw a lot of Medical Supply, Blood Product being move to Belarus and staging area purposed for "exercise" the problem is, you don't need real blood and medicine for exercise, and if Ukraine heed to the advice and mobilised back then, we may have a different battle outcome now.

On the other hand, you can't really "Blockade" Taiwan with 100 ships. It is just too board the coastline to do. You are talking about a continuous 500+ km coastline, and if you put Anti-ship missile that was in Taiwanese stock (Harpoon, Hsiung Feng), you are going to need to push that around 100km outside that 500km coastline, or Moskva would happen to PLAN and 100km is already a very generous discount, because Harpoon have 150-220km range and the domestic AShM goes up to 300km range, and Taiwan have thousands of those. How are you going to blockade 50,000 sq kilometer area with just 100 or so ship? That's impossible even US did not intervene.

Either a number of floating docks/mulberry harbors (as used during Normandy) will be needed or the ships will have to be modified to launch amphibious vehicles from just off shore, or both.

https://cdn.britannica.com/90/47990-004-CBCDB794/side-view-Plan-Mulberry-B-Arromanches-France.jpg

HyperWar: Mulberry B Report

As for dealing with enemy artillery (rocket or shell based) China will need its own miniature hit to kill rocket system; its own iron dome type system to take out the most likely threats. There will have to be ubiquitously deployed on every major platform, and even the smaller ones. Coupling this with counter-battery fire, from land, sea, and the air.

As for the element of surprise, all of invasion ready resources are going to have to be constantly deployed near the coast from now on, with stocks rotated for civilian use, like a prepper rotating their water and canned food supplies, to be ready to go when the SHTF. Fujian is going to have to become the nation’s center supply of these resources, just to be a constantly ready staging ground.

To enforce the blockade and prevent their ships being sunk by AShCM strikes, China my also need lots of unmanned drone ships or smaller manned patrol boats/OPVs to “guard” the larger manned ships and enforce the blockade. This maybe where the fishing fleet comes in. Small ships are gonna needed to be minesweepers anyway. These minesweepers may need to carry lots of inflatable enhanced signature devices to draw enemy fire.

China could also build its own “liberty lifters”

 

[Song Hong]

Well, again, you can only use dual use platform assuming you can take the dock intact, otherwise it would be 2 to 3 months before you can do it, by then you would have already lost (I hanged on by 58 days by the way) You can't support your troops inland if you cannot bring those dual use ship onshore and process them, and unless you have specifically designed well deck and roll on roll off capability, you can't just park your ship on the beach and then unload it to support your troop. And if you cannot do it, that would mean you will have a traffic jam up all the way to both shore because the supply chain depends on whether or not you can unload the first ship quickly then move on to the next.

On the other hand, you cannot dual use "Security Ship" if you expand your beachhead, then you must pull Frigate and Destroyer off your main site for security, what we learn from Snake island is that if your beach head is going to be bombarded day and night as long as they are within enemy artillery range, you can't set up anything because unlike back in WW2, your enemy will know where you landed and what you landed since we have 24 hours SAT surveillance. And you need to come up with 250km while the Taiwanese can hit you at 80km on the other side of the island. You don't just fight on and out of the beachhead, you would also need to contest with that. And that is before you put air and sea power into equation.





No, it's an amphibious operation, as soon as you assemble more than 2 LHD/LHA and a bunch of Landing craft LCAC and so on opposite the Taiwanese Coast, the Taiwanese would have known something is up, and you are going to need all those to move into position before you can attack, you cannot launch an amphibius assault from South of China or North of China, and the moment you move anything you would only need for real battle (like medical supplies, munition, senior commander HQ) you know something is up, and you need time to move all those into places before you launch. One of the reasons why US know Russia is going to attack 4 months ago is the US is tracking Russian hospital, they saw a lot of Medical Supply, Blood Product being move to Belarus and staging area purposed for "exercise" the problem is, you don't need real blood and medicine for exercise, and if Ukraine heed to the advice and mobilised back then, we may have a different battle outcome now.

On the other hand, you can't really "Blockade" Taiwan with 100 ships. It is just too board the coastline to do. You are talking about a continuous 500+ km coastline, and if you put Anti-ship missile that was in Taiwanese stock (Harpoon, Hsiung Feng), you are going to need to push that around 100km outside that 500km coastline, or Moskva would happen to PLAN and 100km is already a very generous discount, because Harpoon have 150-220km range and the domestic AShM goes up to 300km range, and Taiwan have thousands of those. How are you going to blockade 50,000 sq kilometer area with just 100 or so ship? That's impossible even US did not intervene.

I guess you served and discharge as a private soldier.


When China declare an "exercise zone" environ Taiwan last year, all commercial stay far away. In modern naval warfare, you do not need that many ships for blockade. It is about an entire system.

While Taiwan can have thousands of harpoon, they can be useless. Everyone who serve in Navy knows that the background sea noise make ship very stealth. You need to pin point the ship to guide your harpoon.

I dont see how Taiwanese can do that.

 

[jhungary]

I guess you served and discharge as a private soldier.


When China declare an "exercise zone" environ Taiwan last year, all commercial stay far away. In modern naval warfare, you do not need that many ships for blockade. It is about an entire system.

While Taiwan can have thousands of harpoon, they can be useless. Everyone who serve in Navy knows that the background sea noise make ship very stealth. You need to pin point the ship to guide your harpoon.

I dont see how Taiwanese can do that.

Well, if you have brought in argument how you can use 100 or so ship to secure at least 50,000 sq kilometer of water, or how Harpoon can be useless, maybe you earn the right to insult me as a private.

But then you don't...So......

I am not going to comment on this because YOU DON'T HAVE A POINT I can comment on.

 

[jhungary]

Either a number of floating docks/mulberry harbors (as used during Normandy) will be needed or the ships will have to be modified to launch amphibious vehicles from just off shore, or both.

https://cdn.britannica.com/90/47990-004-CBCDB794/side-view-Plan-Mulberry-B-Arromanches-France.jpg

HyperWar: Mulberry B Report

We aren't in 1944 anymore, any big structure like that especially if you bring them in from China which is in the entire coverage of Land base or Ship base ROC Antiship missile, you probably wouldn't be able to tow it for 50 yard before tens if not hundred of missile greet it.

As for dealing with enemy artillery (rocket or shell based) China will need its own miniature hit to kill rocket system; its own iron dome type system to take out the most likely threats. There will have to be ubiquitously deployed on every major platform, and even the smaller ones. Coupling this with counter-battery fire, from land, sea, and the air.

It wouldn't be effective if your enemy saturate their rocket and artillery rounds on you. Sure, 1 or 2 or 3 round on individual target you may be able to withstand with Iron Dome like. What if you have 4 to 5 incoming round or rocket hitting you. again, It will be a bottle neck on those beachhead because you can only land 1 wave of whatever force you can put on it, and then you will have to wait for the deliver platform to withdraw, and then move in with the new delivery platform, and then wait for those unit to be deploy, this process is hours at best, half a day at worse, You are going to get swamped by the defence.

Unless China has the absolute air superiority and can expand that well into the other side of the Taiwan Island, you are not going to be able to touch the artillery and rocket system on the other side of the island.

As for the element of surprise, all of invasion ready resources are going to have to be constantly deployed near the coast from now on, with stocks rotated for civilian use, like a prepper rotating their water and canned food supplies, to be ready to go when the SHTF. Fujian is going to have to become the nation’s center supply of these resources, just to be a constantly ready staging ground.

Doing that would have already alerted the Taiwanese an invasion is coming, I don't think Taiwan will not up its posture saying "Oh the Chinese is doing this for a while now, let's ignore it"

If you do that, the Taiwanese will mostly just going to put up a defensive posture and keep it.

To enforce the blockade and prevent their ships being sunk by AShCM strikes, China my also need lots of unmanned drone ships or smaller manned patrol boats/OPVs to “guard” the larger manned ships and enforce the blockade. This maybe where the fishing fleet comes in. Small ships are gonna needed to be minesweepers anyway. These minesweepers may need to carry lots of inflatable enhanced signature devices to draw enemy fire.

China could also build its own “liberty lifters”

Don't know what do you think Drone can do. You can use drone to look for target, that alone is a very resource intensive operation, and you cannot use it to look for target and then swamp it, there are going to be a few different operators using different asset and work together with it. AI Drone Swamp can possibly solve that, but no one is that advance. On the other hand, drone can be deal with by any number of ways, you can either jam it, soft kill it, hard kill it or even hack it and turn it against you (Saw all those during my time using drone) so this may not be as wonder as a weapon as you think.

It's impossible from the STAR chain to perform an area wise monitoring and have the mean to attack/inspect every traffic with that area, because if you want to enforce a large amount of area, you will have to disperse your ship, that open to attack, and if you want to concentrate on a certain area, then you won't be able to control the entire battlefield.

 

[Song Hong]

Well, if you have brought in argument how you can use 100 or so ship to secure at least 50,000 sq kilometer of water, or how Harpoon can be useless, maybe you earn the right to insult me as a private.

But then you don't...So......

I am not going to comment on this because YOU DON'T HAVE A POINT I can comment on.

Modern siege is not as if holding hand in hand, and surrounding a fortress. It is about deploying forces at critical nodes and nodes are often far apart of one another -- depends on the range of weapon and the situation awareness system.

Any intrusion could be quickly impeded or destroy.

 

[jhungary]

Modern siege is not as if holding hand in hand, and surrounding a fortress. It is about deploying forces at critical nodes and nodes are often far apart of one another -- depends on the range of weapon and the situation awareness system.

Any intrusion could be quickly impeded or destroy.

whatever you say, I have no desire to debate opinion. Especially one that was not militarily sound.

 

[Song Hong]

When China say all vessel stay away from Taiwan, the land base DF21 and all other missile can impose this blockage 1000km. Not even navy is needed.