War game argues that USAF fleet could be outmatched by Chinese

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

The most important thing that I missed out in that given scenario was that the moment the raptor launched its first missile, it has given away its position---it has been awhile that I have posted here and seems like I am a bit rusty---secondly it would take awhile for the raptor to launch all its missiles--- Now our colleague MURADK can correct me if I am wrong---the SU's will be flying real real close formations---definitely four birds wingtip to wing tip, one behind the other to hide the signature at possibly 400 knots / hr and the raptor at that speed as well----closing in at a total speed of a eight hundred knots---the moment the SU realize the missile launch, they will speed up to close the gap, the raptor may want to slow down for the seconfd shot---

If the raptor launched its first missile at a distance of for the sake of discussion at 75 miles away and waiting for a second lock on another aircraft----the distance between the two bogies is decreasing at an alarming rate of speed---if the chinese pilots have good training and nerves of steel they would hold on to their pack right till the last moment and then disperse in different directions, by that time the raptor would be real close----the original missile launch would have given away its proximate position---now it would be pretty much within visual range in the day time---or if it is night time---the year 2020 missiles and chinese radars would have enough sophistication to calculate the last known position of the raptor and any anamoly appearing on their radar screens to lock onto to for a missile launch.

 

[Kharian_Beast]

China has quantity, little quality.

US has quantity and quality.

It's close to rape, China needs to put out a 5 gen fighter before 2020 or they are doomed!

 

[Contrarian]

Hi,

It is agreed that the F 22 needs to be locked onto---the F 22 can lock onto target before anyone else can see it---but if the the numbers are 6 to 72, the raptor does not stand a chance---while it has launched it missiles at a disctance---the air gap between the two planes is closing fast----the raptor can only fly so far and it needs to be gas'd up---after launching its missiles, the raptor turns away---but the remaining su 27 - 30's will have a speed advantage over it to narrow the gap. The raptor can only fly back so far---.

Thats the point, of the Raptor having Supercruise AND 2-D TVC. That it can turn around and fly back far from the range of the Su-30's. The POINT is that Su-30's radars and IRST's wont be able to lock on till there is a gap of only 10-20miles. Infact from the many excercises there are reports that the legacy fighters were not able to lock on the F-22 even at ranges when the pilot could actually see the plane!

Do you think the Raptor's pilot is an amateur, he would allow the opposing fighters to get that close. The moment he fires of his own load of planes he would turn instantly with minimal loss of momentum and energy and go back straight, while other fighters arrive. And i remind you, that the Raptor cruises at 1.7 mach WITHOUT supercruise-if the push comes to shove, the raptor can use its afterburners for a quick getaway and reengage in a more favourable position.

Name me one pilot who would not want to go on a one way chase just to down the raptor----the raptor will be bingo fuel and weapons---if 46 of the missiles were a hit---which is numerically impossible, there would still be 26 enemy fighters in the chase---so RAND is right in its conclusion---one way or the other, the raptors will be lost.

Doesnt matter, the F-22 can still get away easily.

U S air force is not in the habit of sending out massive number of interceptor aircraft to forestall the incoming enemy.

That is your assumption that the USAF would risk sending out 6 F-22's against 70+ enemies.

The enemy never sends out 72 planes to look like 72 birds flying out. The enemy aircraft will be flying in tight two planes or four plane formations each to look like one aircraft on enemies radar---by 2020 would the USAF have the ability to distinguish how many aircraft are in a very tightly flying formation---is there a technology available that could decipher that today!!!

Yes, the AWACS can easily decipher that. Unless the fighters are flying just above or below a big airliner, the AWACS will tell exactly how many fighters are there.

After this whole horde of absoluetly impossible scenario i also put forward one thing-you are completely discounting the EW capabilities of the Raptor.

 

[Contrarian]

Hi,

The most important thing that I missed out in that given scenario was that the moment the raptor launched its first missile, it has given away its position---it has been awhile that I have posted here and seems like I am a bit rusty---secondly it would take awhile for the raptor to launch all its missiles--- Now our colleague MURADK can correct me if I am wrong---the SU's will be flying real real close formations---definitely four birds wingtip to wing tip, one behind the other to hide the signature at possibly 400 knots / hr and the raptor at that speed as well----closing in at a total speed of a eight hundred knots---the moment the SU realize the missile launch, they will speed up to close the gap, the raptor may want to slow down for the seconfd shot---

Mastan, it definitely seems you have become rusty. The radar on the F-22 is an LPI radar, that means that when the F-22 locks onto another plane, that plane does not even realize that it has been locked on. And it wont realize that unless the missile goes active in its NEZ, then again, the F-22's might not make it go active, another F-22 flying further back might guide the missile fired from the first F-22 who's turns right after his volley.

You are also wrong on the second point-the moment the Su-30's realize that there has been a missile launch-again debatable till the missile reaches its NEZ-they will not try to close up the gap, they will all split formation instantaneously and fly in opposite directions to each other to escape from the missile rather than close the gap with the Raptor.

If the raptor launched its first missile at a distance of for the sake of discussion at 75 miles away and waiting for a second lock on another aircraft----the distance between the two bogies is decreasing at an alarming rate of speed---if the chinese pilots have good training and nerves of steel they would hold on to their pack right till the last moment and then disperse in different directions, by that time the raptor would be real close----the original missile launch would have given away its proximate position---now it would be pretty much within visual range in the day time---or if it is night time---the year 2020 missiles and chinese radars would have enough sophistication to calculate the last known position of the raptor and any anamoly appearing on their radar screens to lock onto to for a missile launch.

What makes you think the F-22's radar would not have evolved for detection at humungous ranges and that the missile fired would not have been a ramjet fired from 100 miles off with a 50 mile NEZ. You are assuming that at 2020, F-22's specs remain static while it changes drastically for the S-30's. No sir, the Chinese dont have any radar that would change the game-they depend on Russia for their top end radar till now-infact they are trying to get the IRBIS-E for their Su-30's in the future-they dont have the capacity to make current generation radars as of now-forget something even better.


Last point-what makes you think that there will be only 6 F-22's against 70+ fighters. The F-22 cruises at 1.7 mach, it can also use afterburners to get to station and away from station fast in times of need, what makes you think those 6 wont get reinforced, or that the 6 raptors would not be supported by 50 other legacy fighters or even the F-35?

You realize that the even if there is one F-22 which detects the plane, the other 50 planes can fire their missiles getting it cued to the F-22's radar-which is not detected by the opposing plane?

 

[gpit]

DATE:29/09/08
SOURCE:Flight International
War game argues that USAF fleet could be outmatched by Chinese
By Stephen Trimble

Rand's 90-slide briefing presented in August argues that the US Air Force's fifth-generation fighter fleet could be outmatched by hordes of lesser-skilled Chinese Sukhoi Su-27 pilots in a 2020 battle over the Taiwan Straits. In the Rand war game, China launches an air attack on skies above Taiwan. Using advantages of proximity and sheer numbers, the assault force consists of 72 Su-27 Flankers, 24 in each of three regiments. Operating from Andersen AFB, Guam, the USAF can muster only six Lockheed F-22s in the Taiwan Straits at any time.

As the engagement starts, Chinese Flankers outnumber F-22s by 72 to six. The F-22s are also heavily outgunned in the battle. Three Su-27 regiments carry a total of 912 air-to-air missiles, compared with 48 by six F-22s.

In the end, the simulation optimistically assumes no F-22s are shot down in dogfights, but enough Su-27s break through to wipe out the USAF's tankers. Since the F-22s lack the range to return to a friendly base, they are lost any way.

Some military factions in US are badly in need of fund... RAND is just doing advertisement/propaganda for them in a hope to get a percentage of that fund...

 

[batmannow]

Hi,

The most important thing that I missed out in that given scenario was that the moment the raptor launched its first missile, it has given away its position---it has been awhile that I have posted here and seems like I am a bit rusty---secondly it would take awhile for the raptor to launch all its missiles--- Now our colleague MURADK can correct me if I am wrong---the SU's will be flying real real close formations---definitely four birds wingtip to wing tip, one behind the other to hide the signature at possibly 400 knots / hr and the raptor at that speed as well----closing in at a total speed of a eight hundred knots---the moment the SU realize the missile launch, they will speed up to close the gap, the raptor may want to slow down for the seconfd shot---

If the raptor launched its first missile at a distance of for the sake of discussion at 75 miles away and waiting for a second lock on another aircraft----the distance between the two bogies is decreasing at an alarming rate of speed---if the chinese pilots have good training and nerves of steel they would hold on to their pack right till the last moment and then disperse in different directions, by that time the raptor would be real close----the original missile launch would have given away its proximate position---now it would be pretty much within visual range in the day time---or if it is night time---the year 2020 missiles and chinese radars would have enough sophistication to calculate the last known position of the raptor and any anamoly appearing on their radar screens to lock onto to for a missile launch.

HOUNRABLE MastanKhan; sir
many thanks to you sir, atleast you digg in with some sort of counter F-22 theory, because most of our commrads here, are to bias or too naive to just accept the theory presented in that post.
most of our indian comrads are to affraid to accept the reality that , china can take TAIWAN by force & it seems this fact make them insane in their arguments. any way ,it is genrly accepted that RAPTOR would be the best modren day fighter aircraft, but still it can be detected and canbe fightable in different situations.

thanks a lot for your views.

 

[bernard]

China has quantity, little quality.

US has quantity and quality.

It's close to rape, China needs to put out a 5 gen fighter before 2020 or they are doomed!

said correctly . such war game outcomes are based on assumptions and that too on a very rare possibility that us fleets might be sleeping that day and chinese attack taiwan undetectable and therefore outnumber them, but still outcomes will be same what happened to japan at the end.

only possible conflict in that region will be when some day taiwan declares independence or something meaning similar, but on that day taiwan will be fortified by US CBGs for months eventually chinese will lose their fighting esteem and will settle without that island,

even without any US presence china's war with island is rare because china cannot afford to do same mistake as US by going on a difficult war involving NATO on a taiwanese playground...

 

[su-47]

Hmm. the article suggests F-22s, as part of the US fleet, against Su-27s over the Taiwan strait. But the USN has no plans for inducting F-22s. So where would these F-22s be stationed? in taiwan? i doubt it. i dont think USA will put their frontline fighter where Chinese spies could examine it, or where they might be cannon fodder to a surprise attack.

 

[MastanKhan]

Malaym,

I am not assuming anything about the raptor---I am just taking up what Rand is saying---the raptors will be way out of their base---their support will be the air tankers---you can hide the raptor---but you cannot hide the tankers---where will the raptors be flying to---they will be flying back to the mother ship to get gassed up after they had launched all their load.

We are missing on the scenario presented to us by rand----we need to stay and discuss within those parameters----the raptors will be flying in thousands of miles from a u s base in the pacific and not from an aircraft carrier---only 42in the air missiles, against 72 planes----it ten of them fail---there are 40 planes left

Yes, an assumptive strike on Taiwan will be another nasty surprise for the U S----but I don't think that U S will strike back this time. It will just let the attack run its natural course---let china take over Taiwan. It will be business as usual and everybody will move on with their lives.

I believe that the afore-mentioned scenario is too far fetched by RAND. The U S is not coming to the rescue of Taiwan. China will have a free hand in Taiwan.

 

[Contrarian]

Malaym,

I am not assuming anything about the raptor---I am just taking up what Rand is saying---the raptors will be way out of their base---their support will be the air tankers---you can hide the raptor---but you cannot hide the tankers---where will the raptors be flying to---they will be flying back to the mother ship to get gassed up after they had launched all their load.

We are missing on the scenario presented to us by rand----we need to stay and discuss within those parameters----the raptors will be flying in thousands of miles from a u s base in the pacific and not from an aircraft carrier---only 42in the air missiles, against 72 planes----it ten of them fail---there are 40 planes left

Yes, an assumptive strike on Taiwan will be another nasty surprise for the U S----but I don't think that U S will strike back this time. It will just let the attack run its natural course---let china take over Taiwan. It will be business as usual and everybody will move on with their lives.

I believe that the afore-mentioned scenario is too far fetched by RAND. The U S is not coming to the rescue of Taiwan. China will have a free hand in Taiwan.

The air tankers will be very far out in the sea, the capabilities of the Raptor guarentee that the tanker will be very far out-as the Raptor can reach the tanker even if far in a short amount of time. How do you propose the Su-30's will go and destroy the tankers first before engaging with the Raptors.

Secondly, every tanker will have an escort, will be under AWACS coverage, if it becomes clear at any point, that the tanker is being targetted, the tanker will start moving towards safe zone and additional escorts will fly out to protect it.

And why cant the F-22's land in Japan or Korea? Or bases in Japan and South Korea used to support the F-22's with additional fighters? F-22 infact has already made its first overseas deployment in Japan.

If China indeed starts a unilateral strike, all it takes is ONE CSG to stop China.

 

[batmannow]

Malaym,

I am not assuming anything about the raptor---I am just taking up what Rand is saying---the raptors will be way out of their base---their support will be the air tankers---you can hide the raptor---but you cannot hide the tankers---where will the raptors be flying to---they will be flying back to the mother ship to get gassed up after they had launched all their load.

We are missing on the scenario presented to us by rand----we need to stay and discuss within those parameters----the raptors will be flying in thousands of miles from a u s base in the pacific and not from an aircraft carrier---only 42in the air missiles, against 72 planes----it ten of them fail---there are 40 planes left

Yes, an assumptive strike on Taiwan will be another nasty surprise for the U S----but I don't think that U S will strike back this time. It will just let the attack run its natural course---let china take over Taiwan. It will be business as usual and everybody will move on with their lives.

I believe that the afore-mentioned scenario is too far fetched by RAND. The U S is not coming to the rescue of Taiwan. China will have a free hand in Taiwan.

Dear MastanKhan; sir
simply great, you are 100% right, just want to remind a bit about the progress made by CHINA in the space, i guss china and russia are moving very fast and the day wasnt far when they can track raptor by a stallite.

most of our comrads think this post is a result of some pentagon propaganda
stuff to get the finances for raptor, but what they dont know, is USA take china as a real , & clear present danger. Russia's comeback in the world affairs, almost made US on the the back foot & its a growing perception that in near future US's say in the world affairs would be decressed.
TAIWAN's future lies with great CHINA, i guss! in case of chinese attack on taiwan, US only can play negotiator role, and can make china accept the same conditions as what (HONGKONG deal ) like sitution but there isnt any other way around for both US & TAIWAN & also for raptor?.....

 

[gpit]

Just to serve as a reference: US seems do not foresee a need of large amount of expensive (US$137.5 million) F-22 if the current focus of USAAF is on WoT.

This can be corroborated by the fact that one of the main reasons that former Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Michael Moseley was forced to resign was reportedly that he was at odds with this view, among other factors.

See for instance: World Politics Review Blog |Air Force Chief, Secretary Forced to Resign

 

[Black Stone]

Although the PLAAF is modernizing at a rapid pace, they are still decades behind us in terms of technology and quality.

During this time till 2020, the PLAAF would surely be more modernized than now and have many serious up to date fighters, but then again, you need to think what will be in the USAF inventory in 2020 and technology level?.

 

[batmannow]

Although the PLAAF is modernizing at a rapid pace, they are still decades behind us in terms of technology and quality.

During this time till 2020, the PLAAF would surely be more modernized than now and have many serious up to date fighters, but then again, you need to think what will be in the USAF inventory in 2020 and technology level?.

Black Stone; sir
this isnt have to do anything with modernzing of USAF or with PLAF , but its the genral mentality , of USA & its citizens towards the other nations of the world & it shows same brutalness as what HITTLER got before.
if USA start playing positive role in the world affairs , this world would be 1000% better place to live in, but the theory of dominence & glory , on the other weeker nations & their resoures is about to become down fall of USA & belive me it wont take 2020? .

 

[Black Stone]

Black Stone; sir
this isnt have to do anything with modernzing of USAF or with PLAF , but its the genral mentality , of USA & its citizens towards the other nations of the world & it shows same brutalness as what HITTLER got before.

I am only responding to the thread title and if we are talking about "outmatched" then we must consider the modernization of the PLAAF. If the PLAAF does not modernize, then the word "outmatched" should be removed, hence the USAF will not be outmatched.

I have no idea why you bring in Hitler and foreign policy since the topic is about the USAF and PLAAF.

My comment is only related to Sino-US forces. (PLAAF-USAF)

if USA start playing positive role in the world affairs , this world would be 1000% better place to live in, but the theaory of dominence on other weeker nations & their resoures will about to become down fall of USA.

This is more politics and foreign affairs, I agree that the US foreign policy is a sham. But technology wise, we are superior than the Chinese.