Vietnam strategic plans for building defence capability: Facts and Analysis

[BoQ77]

@William Hung @Carlosa

Some milestones of US ease embargoes applied to Vietnam:
1993 : the first trade show of US companies in Hanoi under name "VietnAmerican 1993"
US companies participated this trade show including household appliance and industrial equipments , chemical, food processing and oil explorer ... I visited that event and for the first time talking to American at my 16 years old as we start to learn English at secondary school grade 6 - 9.
Look like US companies are ready for contracts signed when trade embargoes lifted. ( which is in Feb 1994 )
Btw, we enjoyed some Pepsi cola cans for the first time in our life.

1994 trade embargo lifted

1995: President Clinton and PM Vo Van Kiet announced the diplomat relationship between two.

2006: Lockheed Martin win the bid of Vinasat-1 , a big geo satellite for telecommunication and data transfer, against Airbus and Sumitomo
US amended the arm sale embargo to allow non lethal weapons could be sold to Vietnam under case by case basis
Remind you, satellites are in the ITAR-US munition list http://fas.org/spp/starwars/offdocs/itar/p121.htm#C-XV
2008 Lockheed Martin completed the build, launch, trial operating and transfer Vinasat-1 costs some hundreds million dollars to Vietnam, the contract based on delivery in orbit basis
2010 Lockheed Martin won the 2nd bid on Vinasat-2 project cost 300 million dollars
2012 the Vinasat-2 delivered in orbit to Vietnam

Vinasat-1 is the first Vietnamese satellite to be placed in orbit. It was launched at 22:17 GMT on 18 April 2008, by an Ariane 5ECA rocket from the Guiana Space Centre in Kourou. The launch was conducted by the European organisation Arianespace. VINASAT is the national satellite program of Vietnam. The project aims to bring independence in satellite communications for Vietnam, besides other benefits such as enhancing national security, opening new economic opportunities, etc.

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If there's any catalysis to embargoes lift, it must be big orders.

 

[GS Zhou]

I´m NOT promoting a nuclear war. I am asking what VN needs to deter aggression of foreign countries. we have seen enough bloodshed and wars. we don´t need more of them. your motherland China has a long history of promoting wars and supporting our enemies against Vietnam. Don´t be hypocrite. over 5% of Vietnamese live in foreign countries. Ho Chi Minh was travelling years in the world looking for ways leading Vietnam into freedom and independence before returning to Vietnam.

Uncle Ho is not an internet warrior that sitting at a comfortable room 10000km away from his home country and writing irresponsible post to advocate a nuclear war against the northern neighbor. Uncle Ho is a real fighter even with the most tough situation. That's how he earns huge respects even in countries outside Vietnam. Your bringing Uncle Ho to the topic is the worst insult on him that I've ever seen.

I'll stop responding you on this and leave the thread to topics it belonging to.

 

[Viet]

Uncle Ho is not an internet warrior that sitting at a comfortable room 10000km away from his home country and writing irresponsible post to advocate a nuclear war against the northern neighbor. Uncle Ho is a real fighter even with the most tough situation. That's how he earns huge respects even in countries outside Vietnam. Your bringing Uncle Ho to the topic is the worst insult on him that I've ever seen.

I'll stop responding you on this and leave the thread to topics it belonging to.

- Ho is a strategist, not warrior. he never used a gun.

- distance Germany-China is about 7,200km, less than of some Chinese keyboard warriors from Canada and America, threatening Vietnam with military means.

- VN going nuclear arms is not unrealistic scenario. there are conditions under which VN will seek nuclear weapon. one of the conditions is, if Vietnam feels no longer be capable to deter a foreign aggression by conventional means.

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2014/06/10/Why-Vietnam-Will-Be-Next-Nuclear-State

 

[Carlosa]

back to topic lah

Vietnam need to revamped her defense industry, collaborating with other ASEAN countries like Indonesia and Singapore will greatly enhanced their needs to acquire multiple platforms in which had been suited for ASEAN conditions.

Not only those 3 countries should collaborate in the defense industry, which makes a lot of sense since those are the 3 ASEAN countries with the best defense industry (Burma coming next I think), but actually, it also makes sense to have some sort of military alliance / cooperation since all 3 are threatened by China in one way or another.

 

[BoQ77]

Nuclear issue:
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2010 Feb 22
1. (SBU) Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) is in the pre-negotiation stages for a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Vietnam, according to MOFA First Southeast Asia Division Principal Deputy Director Takatoshi Mori. Mori, who had called a meeting on February 17 to ask about the United States' progress on the same issue, provided a run-down of Japan's nuclear engagement with Vietnam and the GOJ's outlook for the future.

2. (SBU) According to Mori, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry has a Memorandum of Understanding with Vietnam that will expire in March, and which the GOJ intends to renew. This MOU, which he described as a non-binding, three-page document, lists potential areas for GOJ-GVN nuclear cooperation. Mori described the current relationship as one of capacity building, with the GOJ trying to help Vietnam develop human resources, legal framework, and other support elements that would be necessary to support a nuclear power program.

3. (SBU) Mori reported that the GVN has asked Japan to conclude a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, and the GOJ intends to proceed with negotiations, beginning soon. The governments have already held one pre-negotiation meeting.

4. (C) Mori also discussed the status of Vietnam's plan to develop four commercial power reactors. Japanese press had reported earlier in the week that Russia will be awarded the first two reactors as part of a broader deal in which Vietnam gets military aid. Mori told Econoff that according to "confidential sources," the GOJ has learned that the GVN has in fact decided to award the first two reactors to Russia. Mori noted that the GVN position was not public, and if the GOJ were to ask about the status of the reactors, the GVN would say nothing had been decided. Mori stressed the sensitive nature of his information and requested that the USG not reference having received it from the GOJ.

5. (SBU) Mori agreed to keep Econoff informed of developments in Japan's negotiations with Vietnam on the nuclear issue, and welcomed future exchanges with the USG on this subject. ROOS

 

[BoQ77]

... Russia will be awarded the first two reactors as part of a broader deal in which Vietnam gets military aid....

Around that time ( 2009-2010 ) is there any order for Russian weapons ?
Anyway, the competitiveness promote the development ( of even relationship )

===================
Senate Panel OKs Vietnam 123 Agreement With 30-Year Limit

• Committee rejects amendments that would have added barriers to nuclear cooperation
• 123 agreements must enter into force before significant nuclear trade can begin

July 23, 2014—The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations has passed legislation (S.J. Res. 36) approving the Vietnam Section 123 agreement on nuclear cooperation, while limiting trade and cooperation under 123 agreements to 30 years unless the agreement is renewed or Congress agrees to an extension. The committee also voted down two amendments that would have added barriers to the conclusion and implementation of future 123 agreements.

Secretary of State John Kerry signed the U.S.-Vietnam bilateral 123 agreement last October (see Nuclear Energy Overview, Oct. 10, 2013), but the congressional review period is not yet complete. The agreement must enter into force before U.S. companies can begin detailed business negotiations and make deals with their Vietnamese counterparts.

Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) first introduced the joint resolution in May to limit the duration of future Section 123 agreements to 30 years, with some exceptions (see Nuclear Energy Overview, June 19).

At a business meeting of the committee this week, Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) offered an amendment that would have encouraged all future 123 agreements to require foreign countries to forswear the enrichment and reprocessing (E&R) of nuclear fuel. Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) put forward an amendment that in most cases would terminate a 123 agreement if a nation later acquired or developed E&R technology, even if it acquired those technologies lawfully and under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. The committee voted down both amendments.

“By requiring congressional votes to approve 123 agreements in both houses, significant delay and unpredictability would be added to the process for all countries that are unwilling to agree to forswear E&R technology,” NEI Senior Director of Supplier Policy and Programs Carol Berrigan said. “Such a unilateral and inflexible requirement would undermine U.S. nonproliferation, safety and economic interests by significantly reducing the number of countries willing to engage in civil nuclear commerce with the United States.”

The bill has been reported out of the committee and could go to the Senate floor for further debate or a vote.

Vietnam plans to build up to 10,000 megawatts of nuclear power capacity by 2030, with the first reactors to come on line in the next decade. Russian and Japanese firms so far have secured agreements to develop two reactors each in Vietnam. South Korea also has a nuclear cooperation development with the country.

 

[xunzi]

Your question should be: what Vietnam must do to deter Chinese clowns?

- building up a conventional creditable defence force? Yes
- establishing a nuclear umbrella? Yes
- building a nuclear strike capacity? Yes
- seeking to be a part of a security architecture? Yes
- if all above can be provided by America, then be it.

Everything else is irrelevant. Chinese are the last people on this planet that can give us any advice on national security.

Do you think if you start a war against Vietnam tomorrow, you will ask us not to defend ourselves, nor allying with other major powers?

Do you think you can play a anti America card to make things as easy as possible for you?

America and Vietnam aren't historic enemies. The war happened by mistake, miscalculation.

Why are you angry at me? You should try to convince your fellow Vietnamese to accept US military base rather than worrying about what we do.

 

[vtnsx]

I am angry at your stupidity.

There's a lot of rocks on the beach, you can't talk to them because they are just rocks. Best is to let them drown in the water.

 

[vtnsx]

normally I consider them as autists. but rocks?

Yup, they don't surface They would rather stay low at the depth. That's why you let them drown into become an ignorant.

 

[xunzi]

I am angry at your stupidity.

What? It was a genuine question for your Vietnamese fellow but you got angry at the question. YOu are too funny, my friend.

 

[Jlaw]

There's a lot of rocks on the beach, you can't talk to them because they are just rocks. Best is to let them drown in the water.

rocks are inorganic they can't drown

 

[BoQ77]

@Viet : could you delete all of your irrelevant posts or move them to another thread?
I am afraid that they did not enrich the topic.
I think : just answer : Vietnam doesn't allow foreign base in our land, ENOUGH for xunzi's question

 

[Viet]

@Viet : could you delete all of your irrelevant posts or move them to another thread?
I am afraid that they did not enrich the topic.
I think : just answer : Vietnam doesn't allow foreign base in our land, ENOUGH for xunzi's question

Null problemo bro. I deleted some posts. I am a fan of cleanliness too. Please feel free asking the mods here to delete other posts of mine if you think they are unsuitable for this thread.

 

[vtnsx]

rocks are inorganic they can't drown

lol

 

[BoQ77]

US put aside human right issue and lift the arm sale embargo to Vietnam.
After, some big orders.

Boeing, Airbus Credits Diverge due to VietJet — Market Talk
26/05/2016

0626 GMT The multi-billion order that Boeing booked from Vietnamese airline VietJet is positive for its credit but negative for that of archrival Airbus, according to Moody’s. Both aircraft manufacturers are rated A2 with a stable outlook. VietJet is a fast-growing company that up to now operated exclusively with Airbus aircraft, analyst Russell Solomon says. He highlights that the order came shortly after U.S. President Barack Obama announced the end of the arms embargo against Vietnam.

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The US is in talks with Vietnam to place military equipment in the country for the first time since the end of the Vietnam War just over forty years ago, according to US officials.

The US and Vietnamese governments have been discussing the use of Da Nang as a site to store military equipment that could purportedly be used to respond to natural disasters in the region.

The coastal city, perched strategically on the South China Sea, is where US combat forces first arrived in Vietnam in 1965.

The talks about pre-positioning equipment have more symbolic significance. The two former enemies share anxiety about a rising China, making them partners over the past two decades.

Beijing, however, accuses Washington of meddling in the regional issues and deliberately stirring up tensions in the South China Sea.

China claims nearly all of the South China Sea, despite partial counterclaims by Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines. China is also locked in disputes with Japan and South Korea over the East China Sea.

US President Barack Obama will arrive in Hanoi on Sunday for a three-day visit that will anoint Vietnam, a one-party communist state, as an essential part of his “pivot” towards Asia.

The Obama administration had hoped to announce the end of an embargo on selling offensive weapons to Vietnam, which would be another symbolic step in normalizing relations, before Obama’s visit.

But the cautious nature of the military engagements between Washington and Hanoi, which include limits on the number of port visits and a stress on humanitarian missions, underlines the sensitivities that surround any US involvement in Vietnam.

The US carried out an eight-year military intervention in the country from 1965-73.

While Vietnam wants to work with the US to challenge China’s expansive territorial claims on the South China Sea, it is concerned about irritating its powerful neighbor, a fellow Communist-run state with which Vietnam shares a complex set of security, trade and political ties.

Hanoi has a complicated past with Beijing, which controlled much of northern Vietnam for centuries.

“As a Communist party, the US and its values pose an existential threat to [Vietnam’s] regime — but China poses an existential threat to the future of Vietnam as a country,” says Marvin Ott, a Southeast Asia expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

“They have 2000 years of dealing with a China problem and they are better at managing it than anyone else,” Ott said.

Across Southeast Asia, concerns about China and its growing military have created an opportunity for the US to improve relationships.

In recent years, American aircraft and ships have returned to the Philippines for the first time in more than two decades, while US Marines have started training in Australia and new guidelines have allowed for closer cooperation with Japan.

Vietnam has also requested US assistance, albeit at a slower pace.

“Vietnam is going to be very cautious about not crossing red lines with China and the United States is going to respect that,” said Patrick Cronin, Asia director at the Center for a New American Security. “We are not looking for any new bases.”