Vietnam government presents high-speed rail plan next year

[shjliu]

Please give back the entire Paracel and Spratly islands for Vietnam.

please name the islands that belonged to Vietnam, document it, negotiate with China.

We should not hold unrealistic expectations. The best thing we shall do is negotiating on a fishing rights and non-aggression pact.

Unrealistic? what is alternative ? going to war with China? that is very REALISTIC isn't it? as I mentioned, sit down and talk, you take some lose some, China take some lose some ! it is better than going to war!

 

[GS Zhou]

Hi guys, I don't think the disputes in South China Sea is related to this thread which is solely about high speed trains. Pls stay on topics!!

 

[shjliu]

Hi guys, I don't think the disputes in South China Sea is related to this thread which is solely about high seed trains. Pls stay on topics!!

Really sorry!

As far as HSR concern, there is a Swedish balanced a Swedish coin on the China HSR, it stand at edge for long long time, you can check out the youtube video. In my opinion, Vietnam should do a coin standing test on the HSR of Korea and Japan, see if their HSR pass the test or not!

 

[Viet]

I think when China is present in the meeting, natural leadership automatically shifts to Beijing. The remaining option for Japan is either to stay on board or disembark.

The bad seeds were already planted when TPP was rendered as a political tool against China and some minor parties were happy silently.

China, on its part, won't be patronizing, but, it also has to care about the interests of developing countries like itself, including sovereignty interests and non-interventionism.

TPP was rendered as a political tool against China and some minor parties were happy silently?
you don´t want to claim Chinese politics in the region are as clean, innocent as a virgin girl?

Trump makes the worst mistake of the century. ok but that is his choice. CN can get the leading role in the group. though I hope you learn to maintain some key principles, for example mutual respect. otherwise other will begin to doubt your leadership capability.

we are off-topic.

 

[GS Zhou]

Korea was once poorer than black Africa. Look where the country stands now. That is only achievable when the people are ambitious. What you see is just a snapshot of time. How many km in HSR had China 10 years ago?

I believe that Korea could eventually solve the required technology problems, e.g. 350kmh top speed, special requirement to tropical conditions, etc. But they should be given sufficient time, as well as the continual fiscal support from the only client country. Good luck.

Debt is bad if it only goes to consumption. I don't think building infrastructure by external loans is bad unless debt level becomes unbearable. The Japanese set up $200b infrastructure bank. They know Vietnam is a country of the future. Lending money to Vietnam will not cause them sleepless nights.

I'm not saying debt for infrastructure is bad. The key is you need to convince your creditor that $60b loan to Vietnam is SAFE & PROFITABLE. Lending $60 billion to Vietnam is completely different things vs. lending $600 million to Vietnam.

Take me individual as an example. Based upon my income status and credit record, I could easily get RMB 300k loan from bank that the bank even doesn't need any thing from me as pledge; But if I need to get RMB 3 million loan, I need to put something on table as the pledge, e.g. my apartment; if I need to get RMB 30 million loan... sorry, the bank would think I'm making joke with them.

 

[Viet]

I believe that Korea could eventually solve the required technology problems, e.g. 350kmh top speed, special requirement to tropical conditions, etc. But they should be given sufficient time, as well as the continual fiscal support from the only client country. Good luck.


I'm not saying debt for infrastructure is bad. The key is you need to convince your creditor that $60b loan to Vietnam is SAFE & PROFITABLE. Lending $60 billion to Vietnam is completely different things vs. lending $600 million to Vietnam.

Take me individual as an example. Based upon my income status and credit record, I could easily get RMB 300k loan from bank that the bank even doesn't need any thing from me as pledge; But if I need to get RMB 3 million loan, I need to put something on table as the pledge, e.g. my apartment; if I need to get RMB 30 million loan... sorry, the bank would think I'm making joke with them.

is there a demand for HSR?

do you know how many flights per day between Hanoi and Saigon airports?

flight takes off and lands in either direction every 5 minutes at rush hours. hundreds of flights per day. terrible. Hanoi and Saigon have 16 million inhabitants combined. the percentage of people taking flight is still extremely low compared to other nations. can you imagine how the sky will be full of flights if we achieve parity? yes, there is an URGENT demand for alternative.

Will HSR become profitable?

nobody can´t answer for sure at the beginning. I think yes. the politics think yes. of course making money is a precondition for payback the loans.

Do not need to restrict the function of HSR.
China HSR is transporting both passengers and cargos, like EMS or online shopping expressages.

And you should not hesitate to build your HSR.
Even your HSR can not have a reasonable attendance in the short term.

Because your eco is going to take off.

Let the train wait for the passengers and cargo but not vice versa.

And the most important thing is that China HSR is your best option.

last word to Tpp: Vietnam will continue pushing the pact forward regardless. and surprise surprise: the south Koreans express intention to join the pact and will attend the meeting in Chile. No question that we fully support the Koreans.

China HSR will be our option if you put an offer on the table so we can look at it. true, HSR should be used for both passengers and cargos. the german HSR trains do that.

 

[Viet]

Very interesting points made by you regarding Vietnams 1st HSR.
India is also struggling with whether our shorter route of 535 km at 15 billion usd will be profitable or not.
Air tickets if booked on time are quite cheap in India and we have invested a lot in new airports here.
Following your discussion with interest.

you can be certain we study HSR in other countries with great interest. Japan provides money and technology for India first HSR right? how are things going?

 

[GS Zhou]

is there a demand for HSR?

do you know how many flights per day between Hanoi and Saigon airports?

flight takes off and lands in either direction every 5 minutes at rush hours. hundreds of flights per day. terrible. Hanoi and Saigon have 16 million inhabitants combined. the percentage of people taking flight is still extremely low compared to other nations. can you imagine how the sky will be full of flights if we achieve parity? yes, there is an URGENT demand for alternative.

Will HSR become profitable?

nobody can´t answer for sure at the beginning. I think yes. the politics think yes. of course making money is a precondition for payback the loans.

Instead of "think" or "feeling", I think we'd better speak in numbers.

Let's build a quick model for the cost/return calculation:
- Assume Vietnam gets a $60 billion loan
- Assume Vietnam needs to pay back the $60 bn loan in 30 years
- Assume the interest rate as 3%

That means Vietnam needs to pay the creditor $3billion per year (interests + principal repayments). Therefore the HSR line needs to generate at least $3billion/year revenue to pay back the loan alone. (We even don't take account of other cost items, e.g. HSR line maintenance cost, labor cost, energy cost, etc.)

To get the $3 billion revenue, how many rides we need? how much revenue per ride? To get the answer, we could make a benchmark against China.

The Chinese HSR line carried 961.39 million passengers in 2015, the corresponding Passenger-Km is 386.34 billion passenger-km, or 400km per ride (386.34*1000/961.39=402). The Beijing to Jinan line is 400km in distance, the HSR ticket is 30$ (1h30min train for the 400km distance). I.e. we could assume the revenue per ride in China is about 30$.

Let's assume the revenue per ride of Vietnam HSR is also $30. To generate the 3,000 million USD revenue, we need to have 100 million rides per year. Is 100 million HSR rides per year achievable? I'm afraid not. Because the air passenger volume in Vietnam is just 30 million passengers in 2015. (According to the World Bank Database).

Remember, the 100 million rides threshold could cover the loan payment only; if we consider other cost items, e.g. HSR line maintenance cost, labor cost, energy cost, etc., the threshold could be even larger.

You can agree or disagree with me. But please speak in numbers.

 

[Viet]

Instead of "think" or "feeling", I think we'd better speak in numbers.

Let's build a quick model for the cost/return calculation:
- Assume Vietnam gets a $60 billion loan
- Assume Vietnam needs to pay back the $60 bn loan in 30 years
- Assume the interest rate as 3%

That means Vietnam needs to pay the creditor $3billion per year (interests + principal repayments). Therefore the HSR line needs to generate at least $3billion/year revenue to pay back the loan alone. (We even don't take account of other cost items, e.g. HSR line maintenance cost, labor cost, energy cost, etc.)

To get the $3 billion revenue, how many rides we need? how much revenue per ride? To get the answer, we could make a benchmark against China.

The Chinese HSR line carried 961.39 million passengers in 2015, the corresponding Passenger-Km is 386.34 billion passenger-km, or 400km per ride (386.34*1000/961.39=402). The Beijing to Jinan line is 400km in distance, the ticket is 30$ (1h30min train for the 400km distance). I.e. we could assume the revenue per ride in China is about 30$.

Japan offers loan with 0.1 percent interest rate in the case of Indonesia and India with 0.5 percent but you expect we pay 3 percent?

Let's assume the revenue per ride of Vietnam HSR is also $30. To generate the 3,000 million USD revenue, we need to have 100 million rides per year. Is 100 million HSR rides per year achievable? I'm afraid not. Because the air passenger volume in Vietnam is just 30 million passengers in 2015. (According to the World Bank Database).

Remember, the 100 million rides threshold could cover the loan payment only; if we consider other cost items, e.g. HSR line maintenance cost, labor cost, energy cost, etc., the threshold could be even larger.

You can agree or disagree with me. But please speak in numbers.

yes in numbers: 52 million passengers in 2016, this year expected to increase to 60 million at least. 700 flights between Hanoi and Saigon per day.

http://www.ttrweekly.com/site/2016/12/vietnam-air-traffic-soars/
http://www.saigon-gpdaily.com.vn/National/2017/2/123285/

Just studying how much it costs a one-way trip of VietJet. I see the price is more than $30 you assume. I think the revenue of HSR would be higher, correct?

https://book.vietjetair.com//TravelOptions.aspx?lang=en&st=pb&sesid=

 

[GS Zhou]

Japan offers loan with 0.1 percent interest rate in the case of Indonesia and India with 0.5 percent but you expect we pay 3 percent?

60 billion USD loan with 0.1% to 0.5% interest rate?? Or you mean Vietnam is the boss to Japan so you can force Japan to give you a zero interest rate loan? Such deal could only be justified, e.g. you use the loan to purchase a machine from Japan with $100k price. But if you purchase the same machine from a free market, it is priced at $70k. We've seen too many similar cases in the Japan ODA program. In the end, Japan still charges you the premium.

$30 for a 400km HSR trip is the China average. You can of course insist that people in Vietnam willing to pay more than Chinese for the same trip. But the higher the price, the fewer the customer. That's basic economy principal that we all need to follow.

BTW, the 100 million rides threshold is for bank loan payment only. We even haven't considered other cost items yet.

yes in numbers: 52 million passengers in 2016, this year expected to increase to 60 million at least. 700 flights between Hanoi and Saigon per day.

I'm wondering if you have read the article that you share！！

Domestic flight is 28 million passengers!! Or you hope your Hanoi to HCM line to take the cake of international flights too???

 

[Viet]

60 billion USD loan with 0.1% to 0.5% interest rate?? Or you mean Vietnam is the boss to Japan so you can force Japan to give you a zero interest rate loan? Such deal could only be justified, e.g. you use the loan to purchase a machine from Japan with $100k price. But if you purchase the same machine from a free market, it is priced at $70k. We've seen too many similar cases in the Japan ODA program. In the end, Japan still charges you the premium.

$30 for a 400km HSR trip is the China average. You can of course insist that people in Vietnam willing to pay more than Chinese for the same trip. But the higher the price, the fewer the customer. That's basic economy principal that we all need to follow.

BTW, the 100 million rides threshold is for bank loan payment only. We even haven't considered other cost items yet.


I'm wondering if you have read the article that you share！！

Domestic flight is 28 million passengers!! Or you hope your Hanoi to HCM line to take the cake of international flights too???

View attachment 383655

First I admit you are incredibly smart. You successfully convinced the Indonesians to opt for China HSR although your system is more expensive than of the Japanese. In addition You earn money by offering loan with much higher interest rate of Japan. Not bad. Viet students should go to China if they want to study business.

No, any offer with high interest rate will be rejected. No way.

To answer your previous question about Vietnam capability to pay back. Vietnam is rich of natural resources. Our Titanium reserves alone are worth $1 trillion. With a little more effort our rice surplus can feed the population of Japan.

You have the point with the number of domestic passengers. They are lower. But as the numbers increase by 20 pct, they will become the break event point for the revenues, when the HSR becomes operational. Besides many have to travel to Hanoi or Saigon to take their flights because some airliners take off either in Hanoi or Saigon.

 

[AndrewJin]

60 billion USD loan with 0.1% to 0.5% interest rate?? Or you mean Vietnam is the boss to Japan so you can force Japan to give you a zero interest rate loan? Such deal could only be justified, e.g. you use the loan to purchase a machine from Japan with $100k price. But if you purchase the same machine from a free market, it is priced at $70k. We've seen too many similar cases in the Japan ODA program. In the end, Japan still charges you the premium.

$30 for a 400km HSR trip is the China average. You can of course insist that people in Vietnam willing to pay more than Chinese for the same trip. But the higher the price, the fewer the customer. That's basic economy principal that we all need to follow.

BTW, the 100 million rides threshold is for bank loan payment only. We even haven't considered other cost items yet.


I'm wondering if you have read the article that you share！！

Domestic flight is 28 million passengers!! Or you hope your Hanoi to HCM line to take the cake of international flights too???

View attachment 383655

Both viets and indians are too poor for HSR.
More importantly, (if they have one) their HSR prices will be way more expensive than in China, because they will never be able to nurture an HSR industry, therefore they will be entirely reliant on imports.

And of course HSR is way more important than airplanes on a 1000+km corridor.
You can't have an airport every 20km, but HSRs can.
HSR is 10 times more important in terms of regional integration, tons of World Bank reports have confirmed.

 

[Viet]

Both viets and indians are too poor for HSR.
More importantly, (if they have one) their HSR prices will be way more expensive than in China, because they will never be able to nurture an HSR industry, therefore they will be entirely reliant on imports.

And of course HSR is way more important than airplanes on a 1000+km corridor.
You can't have an airport every 20km, but HSRs can.
HSR is 10 times more important in terms of regional integration, tons of World Bank reports have confirmed.

If you haven't noticed we will go ahead with our HSR plan regardless you like it or not, you think we are poor or rich, undeveloped and not superior unlike China. In short your opinion is nice but worthless.

 

[AViet]

Actually no one in Vietnam cares about this HSR project. The news does not appear even on vnexpress.net.

I think in near future, the most feasible higher-speed railways (albeit not necessarily HSR) to be executed is the Lao Cai - Hanoi - Haiphong line, to connect with Kunming in China. Nearly 100% it will use Chinese technology.

After that, we will see what happens to the Hanoi - HCM HSR project.

 

[Nike]

First I admit you are incredibly smart. You successfully convinced the Indonesians to opt for China HSR although your system is more expensive than of the Japanese. In addition You earn money by offering loan with much higher interest rate of Japan. Not bad. Viet students should go to China if they want to study business.

No, any offer with high interest rate will be rejected. No way.

To answer your previous question about Vietnam capability to pay back. Vietnam is rich of natural resources. Our Titanium reserves alone are worth $1 trillion. With a little more effort our rice surplus can feed the population of Japan.

You have the point with the number of domestic passengers. They are lower. But as the numbers increase by 20 pct, they will become the break event point for the revenues, when the HSR becomes operational. Besides many have to travel to Hanoi or Saigon to take their flights because some airliners take off either in Hanoi or Saigon.

Indonesian HSR dont use goverment loans or G to G model, instead we do it by B to B model. Indonesian HSR is joint investment model between Indonesian privates and SOE consortium and China Railway company. By Creating new joint venture company in charge of the development and operational HSR system once it was completed the gov. of Indonesia only providing legal platform and law for the projects to commence smoothly. Feasibility study about profit and prospects for this project had convince major player from Japan, China and France to take the bid in which China won the game.