Vietnam Defence Forum

[xiao qi]

Meh, would not align with the US at any cost. The lessons from Ukraine, Philippines and even South Vietnam were learned very well.

Right !

 

[Viet]

THAT IS THE KEY QUESTION !!!!!!

I'd go for number 3 with elements from the other 2 but without too much expectations from them since they are outside Vietnam's control.



Vietnam is starting a de facto lose alliance with USA, India, Japan, etc, but its only in the initial stages, can't say how far it can go and can't depend fully on others for your own defense, there is no such thing as a free lunch these days, but anything that can help has to be considered.

I would prefer this way:

1) maintain the strategy of hedging between America, China and Russia
2) establish quasi military alliance with Japan
3) increase Vietnam’s military capabilities, including build-up a potential nuclear deterrent

 

[Silent Knight]

So which option you like, 1 or 3?

The way Vietnamese government doing right now - a mixed between the 1 and 3, minus the nuke.

As I said, where's the US when their "allies" needed them the most, after they provoke a conflict with their huge neighbor following their master order? Ukraine, Georgia, Philippines are prime examples.

Vietnam - US relationship might get warmer these days, but I doubt that we would drop everything to be another lap dog for the US.

 

[Carlosa]

I would prefer this way:

1) maintain the strategy of hedging between America, China and Russia
2) establish quasi military alliance with Japan
3) increase Vietnam’s military capabilities, including build-up a potential nuclear deterrent

You forgot India next to Japan. India can do much more for VN than Japan.

The way Vietnamese government doing right now - a mixed between the 1 and 3, minus the nuke.

As I said, where's the US when their "allies" needed them the most, after they provoke a conflict with their huge neighbor following their master order? Ukraine, Georgia, Philippines are prime examples.

Vietnam - US relationship might get warmer these days, but I doubt that we would drop everything to be another lap dog for the US.

I agree, but there are benefits about getting closer to USA, Its not a black and white thing where you go all the way or not or whether you become dependent on them or not. I think its worth it to explore the options that bring something positive. And yes, PH is a good example of how not to depend on someone else, I was very surprised that USA let the chinese take Scarborough Shoal. That was a big mistake (I attribute that to Obama lack of balls).

I would prefer this way:

1) maintain the strategy of hedging between America, China and Russia
2) establish quasi military alliance with Japan
3) increase Vietnam’s military capabilities, including build-up a potential nuclear deterrent

I certainly would not mind some Jericho 2B missiles with a few nuclear warheads for the ultimate deterrence.
Hell, Israel will sell anything if there is enough money on the table. North Korea too. I think USA would look the other way.

 

[Aqsuperman]

All you have done was insult other countries without addressing the core issue: How will Viet Nam stand against an aggressive and more militarily powerful China ? Alone ? Are you joking ?

Regarding the Vietnam War, the alliance with the US gave South Viet Nam some time of independence from the disaster that was communism. The SVN-US alliance fought for partition. The NVN-China-Soviet fought for a unitary Viet Nam. If the SVN-US alliance chose to fight for the same goal -- a unitary Viet Nam -- the NVA would have been wiped out in short order. Would China have committed troops against US troops ? We will never know.

Insulting the US and other US-allied countries is not going to help Viet Nam one bit.

I do like your input in this thread but i have to say that you take this in the wrong way here

All i say is facts that already happen. And since you clearly declare that the goal of the the US in Indochina is about partition then its totally natural that they will lose. The war for VN independence start way before the US participation and the goal has always been one whole VN, not one half or one third. And because you say that the NVA will be wiped out by the US if, a very big IF, US change their objectives then i guess i can say that the 13 colonies will be erased from the map if UK want to deploy all the troops from the other part of the world to North America. Should France and Spain deploy troops to have a showdown with UK for the colonies ? GOD KNOW. So dont presume that whatever happen in VN is the result of this and that and if you change it then US can win. History and military situations dont work like that. And even if it was right then its the faults and the lack of capability of the nation planners to implant it, simple as that.

Insulting people surely wont help us. But to let people know what happen if you place high hope in a "alliance" will not result in something good will keep us realistic. How will us deal with our Northern neighbor ? Oh plz, you sound like Vn is a country that just exist for a few hundred year. We has been dealing wit them for more than 2 thousand years already and fighting has always razing around the clock. Of course the new world present new conditions but running around begging for military protection ? Yeah that will make us feel much stronger. Not to mention how you can find a country that ready to shed the blood for us. Always easy said than done

 

[Viet]

You forgot India next to Japan. India can do much more for VN than Japan..

No I don´t forget India. But Japan shares more with Vietnam many things in common, not only because there are only 3 countries in the world knowing the Chinese in and out: Vietnam, Japan and Korea.

I agree, but there are benefits about getting closer to USA, Its not a black and white thing where you go all the way or not or whether you become dependent on them or not. I think its worth it to explore the options that bring something positive. And yes, PH is a good example of how not to depend on someone else, I was very surprised that USA let the chinese take Scarborough Shoal. That was a big mistake (I attribute that to Obama lack of balls)..

Many people forget the US-Philippines defence treaty does not cover the islands in dispute in the South China sea. actually I really wonder why the Chinese do not dare to take more islands from the Philippines.

I certainly would not mind some Jericho 2B missiles with a few nuclear warheads for the ultimate deterrence.
Hell, Israel will sell anything if there is enough money on the table. North Korea too. I think USA would look the other way.

no objection to India and Israel supporting our military build-up. but I believe, except Japan, no other country in the world will go an extra mile to build a military alliance with Vietnam. there are still too much sensibilities in Vietnam toward America, so I think it is not an option right now.

 

[Silent Knight]

I agree, but there are benefits about getting closer to USA, Its not a black and white thing where you go all the way or not or whether you become dependent on them or not. I think its worth it to explore the options that bring something positive. And yes, PH is a good example of how not to depend on someone else, I was very surprised that USA let the chinese take Scarborough Shoal. That was a big mistake (I attribute that to Obama lack of balls).

Well, back in 1974, the US ordered South Vietnam not to fight the Chinese to defend and take back the Paracel Islands, so I don't think it's a surprise. China is always a bigger and better "partner" for the US than Vietnam. There's no guarantee that the US will not betray their allies to gain benefits from a "supposed" enemy like China.

Yes, we are getting closer to the US, but that doesn't mean we will become another "ally" of them.

 

[BoQ77]

Vietnam is playing the game of "One Asean"
actually, AEC is real. https://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cộng_đồng_Kinh_tế_ASEAN

ASC or ASEAN Security Community is next

https://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cộng_đồng_An_ninh_ASEAN

 

[xiao qi]

Vietnam shouldn't believe "so-called ally" of the US. Us or Russia, China only did for their interests, not for Vietnamese's interests. They can sell us when they want.

 

[gambit]

I do like your input in this thread but i have to say that you take this in the wrong way here

All i say is facts that already happen. And since you clearly declare that the goal of the the US in Indochina is about partition then its totally natural that they will lose. The war for VN independence start way before the US participation and the goal has always been one whole VN, not one half or one third. And because you say that the NVA will be wiped out by the US if, a very big IF, US change their objectives then i guess i can say that the 13 colonies will be erased from the map if UK want to deploy all the troops from the other part of the world to North America. Should France and Spain deploy troops to have a showdown with UK for the colonies ? GOD KNOW. So dont presume that whatever happen in VN is the result of this and that and if you change it then US can win. History and military situations dont work like that. And even if it was right then its the faults and the lack of capability of the nation planners to implant it, simple as that.

You have not provided a single credible proposal on how singular Viet Nam could stand against China.

Citing facts and using them rhetorically gives a facade of sophistication but in the end, that is all it is -- a facade. There is no depth. No substance. Nothing but working people would call 'bitching'.

The Vietnam War ended in 1975, for the US, it was in 1972 with the program 'Vietnamization' of the war. I fled in 1975 and from the US, I read news of the terrible atrocities the communists committed on their fellow Viets and the tragedy that was the 'boat people'. When we returned to look for our grandparents who died in a 're-education' center, I learned that the communists often give animal bones to families for burial. We decided to leave them to rest wherever they were. For Viets who worships their ancestors, many now prays to cow bones. Then from 1975 on, Viet Nam continued to descend into the shithole that was the communist experiment. How did that worked out for you ?

History is linear. A chain of cause and effects where one effect is a cause. If something happened yesterday or last yr, I will be inclined to take that into consideration when I make my decision on what to do. But the Vietnam War ended decades ago. The US have had several Presidents since 1975. The Vietnamese government's leadership are no longer communist and more pragmatic. Too many changes occurred. There is a real threat to the land that you live in but now YOU want to hang onto an event that you have practically no ties to it other than the fact that you live in the country where that event occurred.

Napoleon said that to know a country's geography is to know its foreign policy. Nappy was not the first to recognize that truth but the best to explained it. China is looking to put a sharp knife to Viet Nam's economic throat TODAY but you are focused on what happened over 40 yrs ago.

Good luck.

 

[Viet]

Vietnam shouldn't believe "so-called ally" of the US. Us or Russia, China only did for their interests, not for Vietnamese's interests. They can sell us when they want.

sis Vietnam seeking partners in peace and war time is not a new invention but goes back to the time of the Nguyen and Trinh´s, when China still had a closed door policy. look, China despite possessing great resources and having mass of people is seeking military tie with Russia, staging military exercises with the Russians in the south china sea, hence I don´t see why we hesitate here and there not to play the same game.

I´m not saying we should pursue a military alliance with the US now, but excluding it from the beginning is not wise. because in doing so it is helping China in her strategic calculus how to defeat Vietnam.

 

[xiao qi]

sis Vietnam seeking partners in peace and war time is not a new invention but goes back to the time of the Nguyen and Trinh´s, when China still had a closed door policy. look, China despite possessing great resources and having mass of people is seeking military tie with Russia, staging military exercises with the Russians in the south china sea, hence I don´t see why we hesitate here and there not to play the same game.

I´m not saying we should pursue a military alliance with the US now, but excluding it from the beginning is not wise. because in doing so it is helping China in her strategic calculus how to defeat Vietnam.

@Viet i don't oppose if we view Us as a counterpart, but not our ally. I talk it many times on PDF. See our history clearly, We saw China as a brother, and 1972, they sell us. We saw Russia as the ally, and 1988, they didn't do anything when we had the war with China, even 1979, our treaty with Russia is an only paper draft, no more. Japan, They have history affairs with China from WW2, Our purpose is our lands, not fight for US or Japan.

 

[Silent Knight]

No wonder why some people always cry to the US...

I guess that's the same people that always cry "the communist has sold our land to the Chinese", "no more island and sea" blah blah blah in the last 30 years ~,~

@Viet i don't oppose if we view Us as a counterpart, but not our ally. I talk it many times on PDF. See our history clearly, We saw China as a brother, and 1972, they sell us. We saw Russia as the ally, and 1988, they didn't do anything when we had the war with China, even 1979, our treaty with Russia is an only paper draft, no more. Japan, They have history affairs with China from WW2, Our purpose is our lands, not fight for US or Japan. At that time of the Trinh- Nguyen, Chinese is weak and was defeated by Mãn Châu, their king even tried to run to Vietnam but he was arrested in Myanmar

Correction:

China had been playing Vietnam since 1960s era, as in stealing and replacing Soviet-made weapon with their indigenous ones. Case in point, several MiG-21s and S-75 systems.

Soviet Union did do something in 1979, just not a direct involvement. We didn't ask for their help in 1988, but they still provided intelligence for us.

But I still agree with you, we couldn't look forward to any "ally" during hard times.

 

[xiao qi]

We are weak, we are bullied, it is the simple thing. As my personal opinion, create the relation with Japanese, Us is temporary time. not for a long time. We must build our economy also military, when we are strong, who dare to violate our territories? Don't expect Japan or US, India...except myself. Of course, we can't surpass China .it isn't important. We only need to increase our military. China , they will ask they must use how much their blood if they attack our sea. Is it worth?

 

[Aqsuperman]

You have not provided a single credible proposal on how singular Viet Nam could stand against China.

Citing facts and using them rhetorically gives a facade of sophistication but in the end, that is all it is -- a facade. There is no depth. No substance. Nothing but working people would call 'bitching'.

The Vietnam War ended in 1975, for the US, it was in 1972 with the program 'Vietnamization' of the war. I fled in 1975 and from the US, I read news of the terrible atrocities the communists committed on their fellow Viets and the tragedy that was the 'boat people'. When we returned to look for our grandparents who died in a 're-education' center, I learned that the communists often give animal bones to families for burial. We decided to leave them to rest wherever they were. For Viets who worships their ancestors, many now prays to cow bones. Then from 1975 on, Viet Nam continued to descend into the shithole that was the communist experiment. How did that worked out for you ?

History is linear. A chain of cause and effects where one effect is a cause. If something happened yesterday or last yr, I will be inclined to take that into consideration when I make my decision on what to do. But the Vietnam War ended decades ago. The US have had several Presidents since 1975. The Vietnamese government's leadership are no longer communist and more pragmatic. Too many changes occurred. There is a real threat to the land that you live in but now YOU want to hang onto an event that you have practically no ties to it other than the fact that you live in the country where that event occurred.

Napoleon said that to know a country's geography is to know its foreign policy. Nappy was not the first to recognize that truth but the best to explained it. China is looking to put a sharp knife to Viet Nam's economic throat TODAY but you are focused on what happened over 40 yrs ago.

Good luck.

You are jumping subjects to subject fast.

"Bitching" ? Really ? Substance and depth ? I can write 15 A4 pages explaining what going on from the 1954 to 1975 but i do want keep it short for people eyes here. My point is to let people know what happen if VN goes down the alliance road. Its retarded if the only thing you got to argue back with me is i also has to present something else if i hate the idea about alliance. And if you really like the alliance so much, mind explain to me the way for VN to enter an alliance with a country that will ready to bomb VN enemy, expert heavy economic pressure against it, set up embargo along the coast line and will even threaten to use nuclear weapon to protect VN.

Now since you like politics, i will entertain you a bit,

News of terrible communist atrocities, so i guess you read it on the same paper that will later claim Saddam Hussein has WMD in his country , Osama Bin Laden is a freedom fighter and VN still keep US POW after the war ? Shit hole after 1975 ? Yea sure since US go full swing in support of China and Khmer Rouge so VN has to start mobilizing man for a 2 front war which add another 20 years of isolation and embargo. Thanks a lot Uncle Sam. I bet if UK has keep up a navy embargo toward the entire North America sector, a similar kind of hole will be formed in the colonies then ? You beat up someone and use everything in your power to make that guy life as miserable as possible. Finally you claim that the guy is just a wreck........Well, i have nothing to say with that kind of action and logic

I dont hang to anything. I learn and see things. History to you people like a nothing but a minor stuff. Come and go straight to trash can. When i tell it you say, "Hey that old stuff, dont apply it here. Dont cling to it." Well damn then i guess what can we say a bout a country reputation if we dont check his god damn history ? Now ? What happen to Philippine NOW ? What happen to Ukraine NOW ? What happen to Iraq NOW ? I update stuff everyday and everywhere i check, i cant see any bright spots about "alliance". And when i point it out, you say that im "insulting people". Name 1 time after the Gulf War that military alliance actually work for me, please. And do exclude all the gang fight like half of NATO bomb the crap out of Libya.

Economic partners are fine and some military technology exchange are also good but a military alliance ? Pfff like hell someone will die for a country that is not his homeland.