US would intervene with military to defend Taiwan

[Hellfire2006]

Yeah, nearly every info release by China is doubted by the West and India too. First is the Chinese GDP, then the Chinese population, then the defence budget, certainly China is not a country the West and India will choose to believe for their own agendas. I find info released by the Chinese gov are usually cautions and reliable though the info release process might be more controlled than the West and India.

That's because chinese government releases data in such a way that public perception favours them. There is no private or free media in china , it's the word of the party , they're the ones who call the shots , there is no opposition to their policies or wrondoings.

The info I got is totally different, the Indian side started the fighting by sending large number of troops to destroy the tents erected by the Chinese side on the front line and started beating few Chinese Soldiers left there. Then, one of Chinese soldiers called for reinforcement, the Chinese troops arrived and the big fighting went out. The Indian army planned the incident. As you can see from the released photo of large number of Indian soldiers crossing the river with batons to the Chinese side who are standing on the banks, Indian army is the aggressor.

Explain to me this - why did PLA move 4th motorised and 6 mechanised division to eastern ladakh in april 2020 to reinforce the already deployed division in aksai chin and that too right after military exercises in the xinjiang Military region ? At the same time indian army had one division deployed in entire ladakh. The whole thing was planned in advance by PLA . Deploying 2 divisions after military exercises is not a co incidence esepcially when indians had only one .

There is definitely more than 40 or 50 Indian captives as you can count them in the pictures and see the background long line up.One photo of one group Indian soldiers captured, definitely more 50:

View attachment 847000

The count in the picture you've shared is roughly 40. You can check yourself

Indian army invading Chinese side by crossing the river:

View attachment 847002

Don't try to these info warfare tactics on me . Do you even know what location is this ? It is called PP14 which is a delta shaped feature across the galwan river which was under the indian limit of patrolling before PLA occupied it illegally violating
1) The Agreement on Military Confidence Building Measures (formally the Agreement Between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People's Republic of China on Confidence-Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas) followed the 1993 border agreement. The Instruments of Ratification were exchanged during the tenth meeting of JWG in August 1997.
2) The Protocol for the Implementation of Military Confidence Building Measures (formally the Protocol between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of China on Modalities for the Implementation of Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas) was signed in April 2005. It seeks to implement the 1993 and 1996 agreements by further detailing the confidence building measures .
China broke all agreements by occupying PP14 and constructing military infrastructure there.
The indians were attacked in two phases and not one . The negotiaton party was attacked and in the second phase we went on rampage with additonal reiforcments from a medium regiment . If you don't believe then look at pictures you've shared . In that pic where you've shown captured indian soldiers they're not wearing any combat gear like helmets and tactical vests whereas in the second pic you can see indian soldiers crossing the river all equipped with helmets and tact vests
And one more thing - what incentive does india have in attacking china ? But there is certainly more incentive for china to attack india

 

[jhungary]

Doesn't matter ..fact is 9out of 11 primary candidates in recent elections were his backed.
Issue is a huge base exists behind him..that base will not let any other candidate to be successful in primary and potentially destroy your carrier ..hence none will risk it(apart from a new guy who doesn't care may be)

Same is democrats..it's loose loose situation.. people are angry due to inflation

Well, I will say let see how the 2022 mid-term went, then we can talk about Trump hold on GOP.

 

[jhungary]

Have you seen the state of the Ukrainian homeland? Yes Russia has taken grave losses but the Ukrainian losses have also been massive, an uncomfortable truth that isn't being put forward by the media.
Russia will always remain a threat, but yes it has been weakened.
Well since the pullout in Afghanistan, the mere words for Ukraine you can't blame people for laughing at what sleepy Joe says.

Ukraine is not really that bad, just spend over a month over there. Yes, there are some intense fighting, but the area Ukrainian still have access to is largely undamaged. The most damage took is Eastern area (Kharkiv, Mariupol Pospana) those are no where near rebuildable unless Western or Chinese money flown in. But the rest of Ukraine is not really that bad, in fact, they start rebuilding Irpin and Bucha when I was leaving Ukraine,

On the other hand, I will say Ukrainian is probably having similar casualty rate with Russia, I would put around 20k dead and around 2 to 3 times wounded. The problem is, you will need 3 to 1 advantage for any attacking force to take control of a defensive area, which mean for every Russian that was wounded or killed, they need to take 3 Ukrainian defender with them, and this is not just the case.

US may not be sending troop to fight the Chinese (I don't believe so, but then I also believe China cannot invade Taiwan at this moment, or 5 years from now) but unlike Ukraine, China cannot possibly blockade Taiwan, and there are no land route directly you can go from China to Taiwan, what if US contribution is to keep the sea route open and then supply Taiwan with US weapon like they did with Ukraine? Any offensive in Taiwan would not be capitulate Taiwan in short period of time, because there is a sea between China and Taiwan, I can already see a China-Taiwan war would turn into a grinding warfare much like Russo-Ukrainian warm if Taiwanese willing to fight for it. I mean China at most are on par with Russian conventional capability or have lower capability, and Taiwan have a superior force and reserve structure than Ukrainian. As long as US keep the weapon flowing and intervene in naval term, this is going to be a hard fight for China.

 

[etylo]

That's because chinese government releases data in such a way that public perception favours them. There is no private or free media in china , it's the word of the party , they're the ones who call the shots , there is no opposition to their policies or wrondoings.

Explain to me this - why did PLA move 4th motorised and 6 mechanised division to eastern ladakh in april 2020 to reinforce the already deployed division in aksai chin and that too right after military exercises in the xinjiang Military region ? At the same time indian army had one division deployed in entire ladakh. The whole thing was planned in advance by PLA . Deploying 2 divisions after military exercises is not a co incidence esepcially when indians had only one .

The count in the picture you've shared is roughly 40. You can check yourself

Don't try to these info warfare tactics on me . Do you even know what location is this ? It is called PP14 which is a delta shaped feature across the galwan river which was under the indian limit of patrolling before PLA occupied it illegally violating
1) The Agreement on Military Confidence Building Measures (formally the Agreement Between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People's Republic of China on Confidence-Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas) followed the 1993 border agreement. The Instruments of Ratification were exchanged during the tenth meeting of JWG in August 1997.
2) The Protocol for the Implementation of Military Confidence Building Measures (formally the Protocol between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of China on Modalities for the Implementation of Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas) was signed in April 2005. It seeks to implement the 1993 and 1996 agreements by further detailing the confidence building measures .
China broke all agreements by occupying PP14 and constructing military infrastructure there.
The indians were attacked in two phases and not one . The negotiaton party was attacked and in the second phase we went on rampage with additonal reiforcments from a medium regiment . If you don't believe then look at pictures you've shared . In that pic where you've shown captured indian soldiers they're not wearing any combat gear like helmets and tactical vests whereas in the second pic you can see indian soldiers crossing the river all equipped with helmets and tact vests

The Chinese Communist party and gov have disciplinary functions within the departments that can regulate the gov officials and agencies activities such as releasing false info. Second, China too has judiciary system that rules anything and anybody from violating the laws. Your private media in West and India that claim to be independent are just jokes, they are even more mouthpieces of their govs and establishments with their biases than China's.

I don't know what your talk of movement of 2 divisions of Chinese troops from Xinjiang to Tibet ever happened that time becos Xinjiang troops are for duties in Xinjiang only usually. If the movement ever happened, it's just regular training within China and you Indians don't have to concern, and that doesn't prove that Chinese attacked Indian side.

With all the nonsense aside, the picture clearly shows that the Indians soldiers are crossing the river to the Chinese side to occupy Chinese territory, period.

Finally, I think you should have your eyes checked and brain trained for counting, there is definitely more than 40 Indian captives in the endless long lines shown on the picture. If we can't even agree on the rough number of Indians in the picture that is so obvious, then the rest talk of other things is totally meaningless and pointless becos you won't even accept the most obvious fact and there is no point in continuing the discussion.

 

[PakFactor]

No matter whether the United States will intervene militarily or not, we should make preparations for the military intervention of the United States.

1. Greatly expand nuclear weapons to the same level as the United States and Russia.

2. Greatly expand the Chinese navy. Drag the United States into the naval arms race. Or let the number of Chinese naval ships reach the total number of NATO naval ships and completely control the sea power.

Basically your 2nd point is what China needs to think along the lines when planning its conflict with US. Your will be fighting all of Europe.

 

[_Nabil_]

No matter whether the United States will intervene militarily or not, we should make preparations for the military intervention of the United States.

1. Greatly expand nuclear weapons to the same level as the United States and Russia.

2. Greatly expand the Chinese navy. Drag the United States into the naval arms race. Or let the number of Chinese naval ships reach the total number of NATO naval ships and completely control the sea power.

You will sit, wait and react? Not acting only reacting ?!!

The Russians are fighting for their security and for potential threats, and you won't fight for your land ???
.
Looks like the giant is still deeply sleeping....

 

[waz]

Ukraine is not really that bad, just spend over a month over there. Yes, there are some intense fighting, but the area Ukrainian still have access to is largely undamaged. The most damage took is Eastern area (Kharkiv, Mariupol Pospana) those are no where near rebuildable unless Western or Chinese money flown in. But the rest of Ukraine is not really that bad, in fact, they start rebuilding Irpin and Bucha when I was leaving Ukraine,

On the other hand, I will say Ukrainian is probably having similar casualty rate with Russia, I would put around 20k dead and around 2 to 3 times wounded. The problem is, you will need 3 to 1 advantage for any attacking force to take control of a defensive area, which mean for every Russian that was wounded or killed, they need to take 3 Ukrainian defender with them, and this is not just the case.

US may not be sending troop to fight the Chinese (I don't believe so, but then I also believe China cannot invade Taiwan at this moment, or 5 years from now) but unlike Ukraine, China cannot possibly blockade Taiwan, and there are no land route directly you can go from China to Taiwan, what if US contribution is to keep the sea route open and then supply Taiwan with US weapon like they did with Ukraine? Any offensive in Taiwan would not be capitulate Taiwan in short period of time, because there is a sea between China and Taiwan, I can already see a China-Taiwan war would turn into a grinding warfare much like Russo-Ukrainian warm if Taiwanese willing to fight for it. I mean China at most are on par with Russian conventional capability or have lower capability, and Taiwan have a superior force and reserve structure than Ukrainian. As long as US keep the weapon flowing and intervene in naval term, this is going to be a hard fight for China.

I'd agree with most of that post and you're right the Ukrainian losses are as large but they've managed to inflict greater per capita losses on the Russians. Western Ukraine has remained very well off from the conflict.
Regarding Chinese conventional capabilities they are way above Russia and overtook them some time back in the early 0 years. Look at the naval power comparison between the two. Land forces the Chinese both have quality and numbers. Air power tilted with the arrival of the J-20 and that gap grows.
Anyway's way to large of a topic to discuss i.e. Chinese abilities.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Pretty much the end of the Chinese invading Taiwan. They will make some noises for their domestic gullible audience but in reality they have been put in place for once and for all

In the past PRC came at the receiving end of US Gunboat diplomacy thrice

First Taiwan Strait Crisis

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

No change in the future unless PLAN outnumbers US carriers

PRC will also need to prepared if USA decides to open second front in SCS and even possible full scale naval conflict close to this shores

 

[etylo]

I mean MacArthur's plan to drop 100 nukes on China. So don't talk about "strategic games"

Yeah, MacArthur didn't have the authority to make that decision to drop 100 nukes, that's why the ultra racist war monger lunatic was removed by his president.

 

[Super Falcon]

USA will never intervene these are words only they know china will eat Taiwan in its own backyard

 

[etylo]

In the past PRC came at the receiving end of US Gunboat diplomacy thrice

First Taiwan Strait Crisis

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

No change in the future unless PLAN outnumbers US carriers
View attachment 847043

PRC will also need to prepared if USA decides to open second front in SCS and even possible full scale naval conflict close to this shores

Are you sleeping ? It's 2022, not 2017, certainly not 1996, at least 5 years of time lag in your chart, in that time period of 5 years, Chinese military has grown tremendously, OK.

 

[jhungary]

I'd agree with most of that post and you're right the Ukrainian losses are as large but they've managed to inflict greater per capita losses on the Russians. Western Ukraine has remained very well off from the conflict.
Regarding Chinese conventional capabilities they are way above Russia and overtook them some time back in the early 0 years. Look at the naval power comparison between the two. Land forces the Chinese both have quality and numbers. Air power tilted with the arrival of the J-20 and that gap grows.
Anyway's way to large of a topic to discuss i.e. Chinese abilities.

I probably would not underestimate Russian conventional capability.

Why Russia perform so badly in Ukraine have nothing to do with their combat capability or training or equipment, it all come down to the Command and Communication Structure and also motivation. That is the 2 things dragging the Russian down on this war. Not to mention conquering a country is not small task. And finally Ukrainian is putting up a hack of a fight.

In term of Conventional war making capability, if we combine equipment strength, training, combat experience and motivation. China is about on par with Russia if not a little let down by training and their combat experience.

It's also not an easy task to fight Taiwan, Taiwan is an island (actually a chain of Island) and that depends heavily on naval superiority, as I said, if US "Support" is limited to Keep Taiwan Sea Lane open and supply Taiwan with arms, and also intelligence sharing like they did with Ukraine there is going to be a problem for the Chinese, The reason why Ukraine has been able to killed so many Russian leadership is probably directly contributed to NATO intelligence sharing. Which mean if US are going to do that with Taiwan, they will know where to hit and who to hit first. With the amount of advance SAM and ASM Taiwan have (Patriot and Harpoon), they are going to make a blood bath on the Chinese before they come ashore.

On the other hand, in a tradition island assault scenario, you no longer only need 3 to 1 advantage, that number goes to 5 to 1. And if you don't either have Naval or Air Superiority, then that number growth to 10 to 1. China will be facing 50,000 defender on the first wave. Which mean they will need to put at least 250,000 troops and their equipment on shore in the first few week, and then have the capability to supply them. That is out of the currency PLAN capability with only 2 LHA and 8 LHD (That give you around 20,000 troop or so), there are no way they can support a full on invasion and put that amount of number of troop onshore even with airborne component, you will need around 5 times more Amphibious asset to be able to get there. Otherwise it would have been a bloodbath again if you send them piecemeal.

The only thing China can remotely able to sustain such an invasion is Chinese Air Force, but then will they become air dominant over China would be another story. I mean J-20 can only do so much, it can't win the war for China, and ROCAF is not a complete write off either. With a mix of F-16 and Mirage 2000 with Early Warning and EW capability, couple with advance Patriot missile system. You are looking at a very contested airspace, and if anything we can learn from Russian failing to take Air Superiority over Ukraine is that it's hard to play cat and mouse game when you are invading, they can hide their asset and ambush you, but you need to fly over there to do your stuff.


And finally, how much US is willing to help is another issue, US will do probably almost the same thing they did with Ukraine, the US will most likely transfer a tons of advance equipment to Taiwan (F-16, Patriot, Apache, M-60 or even M1 tanks, M777 or other advance artillery) Taiwan had already trained on and are using those stuff. Those thing are going to be headache for the Chinese to get over. Which will bring the Chinese into a single question, will they want to drag US into this fight? US attacking someone by themselves are not going to be the same with US being attacked first. You see how the country rally after Pearl Harbour and 9/11, if China attack US ship or aircraft, there will be overwhelming response by the US Population and US war machine run on that, as long as population support a war, US will go to war. If that is the case, then it will change the entire matrix when the 3 US naval fleet engage with the Chinese, making it even harder for the Chinese and will take more toll (Because they will not be just defending Taiwan, but they will also attack Chinese coastal city) on the Chinese. Which I don't think at this stage China would risk that. Not until something is threaten the establishment and they need a way out. That is why I don't see China would attack Taiwan anytime now or near future.

 

[Jackdaws]

In the past PRC came at the receiving end of US Gunboat diplomacy thrice

First Taiwan Strait Crisis

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

No change in the future unless PLAN outnumbers US carriers
View attachment 847043

PRC will also need to prepared if USA decides to open second front in SCS and even possible full scale naval conflict close to this shores

The continuation of China's Millennium of Humiliation I guess.

 

[PakFactor]

You will sit, wait and react? Not acting only reacting ?!!

The Russians are fighting for their security and for potential threats, and you won't fight for your land ???
.
Looks like the giant is still deeply sleeping....

It’s the most central issue of policy makers in our region. They are reactive than active.

 

[etylo]

I probably would not underestimate Russian conventional capability.

Why Russia perform so badly in Ukraine have nothing to do with their combat capability or training or equipment, it all come down to the Command and Communication Structure and also motivation. That is the 2 things dragging the Russian down on this war. Not to mention conquering a country is not small task. And finally Ukrainian is putting up a hack of a fight.

In term of Conventional war making capability, if we combine equipment strength, training, combat experience and motivation. China is about on par with Russia if not a little let down by training and their combat experience.

It's also not an easy task to fight Taiwan, Taiwan is an island (actually a chain of Island) and that depends heavily on naval superiority, as I said, if US "Support" is limited to Keep Taiwan Sea Lane open and supply Taiwan with arms, and also intelligence sharing like they did with Ukraine there is going to be a problem for the Chinese, The reason why Ukraine has been able to killed so many Russian leadership is probably directly contributed to NATO intelligence sharing. Which mean if US are going to do that with Taiwan, they will know where to hit and who to hit first. With the amount of advance SAM and ASM Taiwan have (Patriot and Harpoon), they are going to make a blood bath on the Chinese before they come ashore.

On the other hand, in a tradition island assault scenario, you no longer only need 3 to 1 advantage, that number goes to 5 to 1. And if you don't either have Naval or Air Superiority, then that number growth to 10 to 1. China will be facing 50,000 defender on the first wave. Which mean they will need to put at least 250,000 troops and their equipment on shore in the first few week, and then have the capability to supply them. That is out of the currency PLAN capability with only 2 LHA and 8 LHD (That give you around 20,000 troop or so), there are no way they can support a full on invasion and put that amount of number of troop onshore even with airborne component, you will need around 5 times more Amphibious asset to be able to get there. Otherwise it would have been a bloodbath again if you send them piecemeal.

The only thing China can remotely able to sustain such an invasion is Chinese Air Force, but then will they become air dominant over China would be another story. I mean J-20 can only do so much, it can't win the war for China, and ROCAF is not a complete write off either. With a mix of F-16 and Mirage 2000 with Early Warning and EW capability, couple with advance Patriot missile system. You are looking at a very contested airspace, and if anything we can learn from Russian failing to take Air Superiority over Ukraine is that it's hard to play cat and mouse game when you are invading, they can hide their asset and ambush you, but you need to fly over there to do your stuff.


And finally, how much US is willing to help is another issue, US will do probably almost the same thing they did with Ukraine, the US will most likely transfer a tons of advance equipment to Taiwan (F-16, Patriot, Apache, M-60 or even M1 tanks, M777 or other advance artillery) Taiwan had already trained on and are using those stuff. Those thing are going to be headache for the Chinese to get over. Which will bring the Chinese into a single question, will they want to drag US into this fight? US attacking someone by themselves are not going to be the same with US being attacked first. You see how the country rally after Pearl Harbour and 9/11, if China attack US ship or aircraft, there will be overwhelming response by the US Population and US war machine run on that, as long as population support a war, US will go to war. If that is the case, then it will change the entire matrix when the 3 US naval fleet engage with the Chinese, making it even harder for the Chinese and will take more toll (Because they will not be just defending Taiwan, but they will also attack Chinese coastal city) on the Chinese. Which I don't think at this stage China would risk that. Not until something is threaten the establishment and they need a way out. That is why I don't see China would attack Taiwan anytime now or near future.

If China ever going to attack Taiwan, there is definitely going to be a sea blockade around Taiwan island with the 70 plus Chinese submarines to stop others from supplying arms to the Island. Also, if US decides to attack Chinese coastal cities, I am sure it's going to escalate into a nuclear war making US mainland also targets.