US President Barack Obama will never attack Iran

[Harry_Thomason]

I dont think Obama would willfully attack Iran, but he could be forced to do it.

Realistic scenarios:

1) Under US and Israel pressure UNSC imposes complete Iran's oil embargo, Russia/China gets something in return not to veto. Iran closes Strait, West starts the war.

2) 9/11 scale red-flag operation happens, with skillfully set-up Iran as "Bin Laden 2.0". Obama would be forced by the public opinion to attack Iran.

3) Israel attacks Iran, gets retaliated, and runs crying to US for help from "new Holocaust". Obama again would be forced to join Israel-Iran war.

 

[bozorgmehr]

I dont think Obama would willfully attack Iran, but he could be forced to do it.

Realistic scenarios:

1) Under US and Israel pressure UNSC imposes complete Iran's oil embargo, Russia/China gets something in return not to veto. Iran closes Strait, West starts the war.

2) 9/11 scale red-flag operation happens, with skillfully set-up Iran as "Bin Laden 2.0". Obama would be forced by the public opinion to attack Iran.

3) Israel attacks Iran, gets retaliated, and runs crying to US for help from "new Holocaust". Obama again would be forced to join Israel-Iran war.

Nicely laid out...

As far as the embargo itself goes, there are limits on how far they can push this. There's also the question of demand for oil and the impact of short supplies on the global economy. There's a point at which the critical mass of dissenters will start to tip in Iran's favor. But they've done one better. They've implicitly embargoed all Iranian oil sales by excluding Iran from doing transactions in US currency on the global network. As a result Iran has a hard time getting paid for the oil that it does sell. But even that can be a double edged sword. But I'm not gonna go into it...

No 2, IMHO, is a distant possibility, fraught with dangers for the perpetrators. It will be a world changing even. I don't think the israelis will ever dare pull off something like that on US soil. They risk losing too much. I think Israel will always prefer to have a nuclear armed Iran as an enemy, than to lose the US as a friend. Plus, it's not a certainty that they may be successful in pinning it on Iran. And Iran will pull out all stops to prove their innocence. So the cost-benefit analysis weighs heavily against the argument, IMHO.

No 3, is a more likely scenario. Iran will have be very careful in its response to an Israeli attack. The most significant outcome of an Israeli attack from an Iranian pov, would be that they could walk away from the NPT Scott free. Nobody would be in a position to blame them. So they could have their cake and eat it too. So the Iranian riposte would have to be measured and palatable to the world, so as not to elicit or allow for an undesired military response from the US.

 

[The SC]

Option 1 and 2 are irrelevant at the moment, Option 3 is a real danger to the world since china's military said implicitly that China will defend Iran if the US gets involved, and Israel seems to have heard the massage, that any attack on Iran will bring a proportionate counter attack from it and the US will get involved only if it desires a world war. then the rest of the planet will react and the consequences are impredictable.
What we see now is a lowering of tone from the USerael.

 

[The SC]

President of Cuba Fidel Castro just said that he has no doubts that the US is Planning/going to strike Iran!
He was talking about the huge bombs the US is Manufacturing.
I do not know if he has more details and more evidence.
Although any attack on Iran will be suicidal.