US prepared to snatch Pakistan nukes

[Icarus]

Question for the experts:

Do nuclear weapons require replenishment? I know Pu has a long half-life, but is there any need to replenish the pile?

If so, the US could destroy Pakistan's nuclear reactors and start a countdown for effectively denuking Pakistan. Pakistan would really have no recourse -- it is not going to nuke the US in return.

Nukes do not require re-enrichment.
We can build new reactors and the nukes will not even notice a difference, Uranium-238 has a half life of about 5 Billion Years and 235 has a half-life of 700 Million years, we would already have the know how, even if it takes another 100 years, we'll still remain a nuclear armed nation.

 

[Ignited Mind]

Ab de bhi do yaar. Nuke hee toh hai, koi thakur ka haath thode hee hai!

 

[airmarshal]

Pak nukes are not at one place so even if they conduct an operation, how will they be certain they have it all?

The idea of Afghanistan occupation and its end result is this - denuclearize Pakistan. Now US is moving in that direction to shift war to Pakistan.

 

[Icarus]

We don't do whatever US tells us and we don't kill our people in name of WOT.Those Kayani "locked indian planes" statements serves very well for local consumption but nothing concrete.India shot down Pakistani Navy plane killing all 16 onboard and Pakistan did nothing but a "next time we will do something".Any answer to that?

We are already well aware of your animalistic nature and sheer disrespect for human life. No need to flaunt it. Unlike you, we do not feel inclined to shoot down unarmed aircraft just because they are there. Case in point, that chopper that crossed over to Pakistan and allowed to land until a fierce storm passed. BTW, we did not kill our people, the Taliban are not our people, they are enemies of the state and the people of Pakistan. The same however cannot be said about unarmed Kashmiri protestors, but you can believe whatever helps you sleep better at night.

 

[The Great One]

Pakistan's nuclear assets are distributed across much of the country, that's the 36th largest landmass in the world. Although I am confident that CIA doesn't have a clue where they are, but I'll suggest for argument sakes that 2 locations are neutralized and the US decides to nab them. Here's what will happen, IMHO:

1) They won't attack, the Americans are smarter than that.

2) They have a fit of fanaticism and send in those stealth helos to take the nukes.

Now let's build on scenario two, at location X. Three choppers are dispatched for location X (Any more and they risk forming a cluster that may result in small radar reflection from each helo, resulting in a significant ping back). From the size of the wreckage, I estimate that helo carries less than 10 people including two pilots. So let's say there are 6 armed SEALS in each. The Helicopters enter Pakistani airspace undetected. They reach site X and:

1) Are spotted, taken alive/killed in cross fire.
2) Manage to infiltrate the facility

Building on scenario 2, now that they are inside the facility, they face hundreds of well trained, fiercely motivated members of the SPD who are also armed to the teeth.

1) They are killed/taken alive.
2) They go Rambo and kill every SPD personnel onsite.

Building on scenario 2, they find the warheads (Under 10) but what do they remove them with? They can't just carry them, time is of the essence as back up is probably inbound.

1) They leave without the warheads.
2) They destroy the warheads on site.

Building on scenario 2, if they destroy the nukes on site, a massive radiation leak will affect much of Pakistan's civilian populace. Depending on the time of year, winds from the bay of Bengal or from the Mediterranean sea will carry the winds loaded with radiation to neighbouring countries. With so much enriched uranium, I predict a Radiation cloud that will put Chernobyl to shame. The Americans are smarter than that.



Conclusions:

1) Any such raid is impossible.
2) Indians go home sad.

And do you think they wouldn't take these things into consideration before before attempting such attacks. The'll be months of scouting, planning and recon before they undertake any such attack.
BTW I really liked how you used that stealth helo theory to add muscle to your arguments.
According to you they'll just send a bunch of stealth helos and a handful of SF's to take out your nuclear arsenal.
UH UH. This is just wishful thinking. And Americans are smarter than that.



On a side note, this is more or less, a troll thread and we are just attempting to generate a nearly impossible future scenario. But it don't mean that we can't have a little friendly banter and a little entertainment along with a good no-nonsense debate

 

[SQ8]

And do you think they wouldn't take these things into consideration before before attempting such attacks. The'll be months of scouting, planning and recon before they undertake any such attack.
BTW I really liked how you used that stealth helo theory to add muscle to your arguments.
According to you they'll just send a bunch of stealth helos and a handful of SF's to take out your nuclear arsenal.
UH UH. This is just wishful thinking. And Americans are smarter than that.

Yes they are..
which is why they probably gamed out multiple scenario's including paying off the people who protect these nukes to using B-2's and F-22's.
However, all these "in and out" measures will only be effective at neutralizing 50% of the arsenal at best.
Short of invading Pakistan.. there is no way to get the nukes out unless Pakistan volunteers them all up for 1 trillion Dollars.

 

[Icarus]

And do you think they wouldn't take these things into consideration before before attempting such attacks. The'll be months of scouting, planning and recon before they undertake any such attack.
BTW I really liked how you used that stealth helo theory to add muscle to your arguments.
According to you they'll just send a bunch of stealth helos and a handful of SF's to take out your nuclear arsenal.
UH UH. This is just wishful thinking. And Americans are smarter than that.

Well being a COIN analyst, Nuclear Diplomacy is just a side subject for me. The whole point of the analysis was to prove that these things will be taken into consideration and the raid never attempted. If you believe otherwise, you are welcome to provide your argument.

As for the part in red, if you expect an Armoured Brigade with Heavy Bombers then you need some lessons in Defence and Strategic Studies.

 

[T-Rex]

World War. Are you kidding me. Who will side with Pakistan, China? You think China would go against it's biggest customer of it's products and destroy all the hardwork and effort [and copying, stealing] it took them to reach at this economic stage for Pakistan.
And no, I am not under the impression that it would be one on one. It would be 28 vs 1. Maybe even 29[India]

Nobody is going to side with Pakistan, yet somehow india and her big daddy are sitting idly. Now, that tells a different story.

I wonder what the friends of america in Pakistan are saying? I hope they are not preparing a red carpet to welcome their big daddy.

 

[The Great One]

Yes they are..
which is why they probably gamed out multiple scenario's including paying off the people who protect these nukes to using B-2's and F-22's.
However, all these "in and out" measures will only be effective at neutralizing 50% of the arsenal at best.
Short of invading Pakistan.. there is no way to get the nukes out unless Pakistan volunteers them all up for 1 trillion Dollars.

That's why intel matters. If they can successfully collect intel verifiable from several impeccable sources, then I don't see a problem, And, they do have a defence budget several times the GDP of Pakistan IIRC, and bribing shouldn't be that hard in Pakistan.

 

[lem34]

Before OBL was tapped, the same was thought about his location too..

Yep it took ten years to find one target

 

[Saleem]

musharaff already sold off the nukes--while the us may not have physical possession of all parts - the capability is definitely neutralized....

 

[Green Hornet]

Yep it took ten years to find one target

Actually NO, the Americans could have killed Osama anytime they wanted, but they were wise enough to kill other terrorists and terrorist organizations taking osama's name as an excuse. Had they killed osama immediately the U.S.A. would have no strong reason to continue staying in afghanistan and paksitan. Searching osama was just an excuse to keep pressurizing pakistan and kill other terrorists.

 

[lem34]

I think that such an attack is unlikely. However if there was one what I find frightening is that rather than losing them would we use some? What would be targets:

American bases? India? Israel?

Just like Americans play war games no doubt Pakistan must have played this game. I remember sometime ago ISI chief stating that they had prepared a list of targets in India

Actually NO, the Americans could have killed Osama anytime they wanted, but they were wise enough to kill other terrorists and terrorist organizations taking osama's name as an excuse. Had they killed osama immediately the U.S.A. would have no strong reason to continue staying in afghanistan and paksitan. Searching osama was just an excuse to keep pressurizing pakistan and kill other terrorists.

Then you accuse us of having conspiracy theories. No doubt this means CIA were complicit in hiding Osama

 

[Khan_patriot]

during this fictional scenario the following may happen:

1.The US sends in SF guys in limited numbers who know hypothetically where each and every warhead is (which is almost impossible), the are able to take out around 60 % at best,
2.THe opn was a night raid, with fierce deployment and the US expeditionary force was either shot down or killed at the site with very few if any going back home
3.Obama now realizing what a shitstorm he just gave birth to tries to salvage some pride and sends in the MEUs (marine expeditionary units) first, followed by an eventual large scale inflow
4.By now it is mid day the next day and the misadventure is all over the news and the military is deployed and a few bombs are detonated somewhere in Balochistan to send off a message. Millions of civilians men flock to the ''civil arming camps'' and others flock to reinforce the army, thousands of militas form all over the country, all internal divides are forgotten sice the **** has hit the fan
5.Spec ops troops are around the remaining sites and all the assets in Afghanistan strike out at any troop movement trying to cross the border and reinforce the MEUs that are bashing it out with the army near the coast and are involved in severe urban conflict in the shore line cities with the people, who once aimed at their own troops are now aiming at the real enemy with rpgs, aks and pretty muck all they can get their hands on
6.Some nukes are armed and others are put on standby to be armed at o moments notice. The war is by now heating up and a few days pass by with many MEU troops killed and many Pakistanis martyred, some of the reinforcements reach from the western border and both sides involve in all out battle.
7.The Indians try and be opportunistic and try to involve from the east but China threatens ( doesnt get involved) and the Indians back off

Now two thing can happen, either the US backs down or boom boom boom the Pakistanis give the US a farewell gift and wipe off all the US bases in the ME, along with tel aviv and major cities of India,

8.Now the US is screwed and so is Pakistan and the US replays Vietnam and Afghanistan in the ensuing LIC which would probably drag on for years and even decades......

My advice to the US dont **** with us we are crazy enough and motivated enough to get screwed and screw you in the process, Allah ho Akbar

 

[The Great One]

Well being a COIN analyst, Nuclear Diplomacy is just a side subject for me. The whole point of the analysis was to prove that these things will be taken into consideration and the raid never attempted. If you believe otherwise, you are welcome to provide your argument.

As for the part in red, if you expect an Armoured Brigade with Heavy Bombers then you need some lessons in Defence and Strategic Studies.

What's an armored brigade with heavy bombers??
And yes, I do expect heavy bombers or more specifically stealth bombers to be a part of this raid, more or less.
Anyway, as it has already been ascertained that I am not an expert in this field, I don't really have too many theories.
SF's and NEST teams backed with SEAD/DEAD ops using whatever means, CM's, B-2's[?], precision bombing and destruction of Pakistani AFB's along with establishing instant air supremacy using F-22[] and heavy carpet bombing of all the roads connecting the nuclear facilities till the nukes are denuked is what I am gonna go with.
Arguably I may need some lessons in Strategic Defense, but whatever I've had my fill for now.