US Intelligence officer and China hand explains the PLA

[CardSharp]

This is the single best talk I've heard on the organization, function, and capability of the PLA.

That said you must have a hour to burn to really do this lecture justice.

Dennis J. Blasko Speaks at Whittier College


Mr. Dennis J. Blasko (west point) served 23 years in the U.S. Army as a Military Intelligence Officer and Foreign Area Officer specializing in China. Mr. Blasko was an army attaché in Beijing from 1992-1995 and in Hong Kong from 1995-1996. He served in infantry units in Germany, Italy, and Korea and in Washington at the Defense Intelligence Agency, Headquarters Department of the Army (Office of Special Operations), and the National Defense University War Gaming and Simulation Center.

 

[CardSharp]

Anyone watch the lecture?

 

[no_name]

Need to allocate a time for it as it is quite long. I prefer to watch it in one go.

 

[CardSharp]

Need to allocate a time for it as it is quite long. I prefer to watch it in one go.

Please post when you do, this is a really interest talk.

 

[siegecrossbow]

This is the single best talk I've heard on the organization, function, and capability of the PLA.

That said you must have a hour to burn to really do this lecture justice.

Dennis J. Blasko Speaks at Whittier College


Mr. Dennis J. Blasko (west point) served 23 years in the U.S. Army as a Military Intelligence Officer and Foreign Area Officer specializing in China. Mr. Blasko was an army attaché in Beijing from 1992-1995 and in Hong Kong from 1995-1996. He served in infantry units in Germany, Italy, and Korea and in Washington at the Defense Intelligence Agency, Headquarters Department of the Army (Office of Special Operations), and the National Defense University War Gaming and Simulation Center.



YouTube - Chinese Military Expert Dennis J. Blasko Speaks at Whittier College (Part I)



YouTube - Chinese Military Expert Dennis J. Blasko Speaks at Whittier College (Part II)

I finished the video, woohooo !

Before I go indepth on what I thought about the video I'd like to summarize a bit:

1) Mr. Blasko is exceptionally (no surprise there given his military background) knowledgeable about Chinese defense. The presentation as a whole was very neutral and technical.
2) His discussion struck me as unique because the focus was not placed on the hardware but the doctrine, strategy, and integration. This man looks at the bigger picture.
3) I guess he hates journalists or something .
4) He asserted multiple times that the Chinese policy doesn't allow for military expansion but focuses on defense instead. Very unusual for a military man to say that.

Although the presentation was long it was pretty pleasant to watch. The only bad thing about it was that we can't see the slides! I'd be interested to see the slide version of the presentation if it is available in public.

 

[CardSharp]

I know for sure which picture he used for a slide in the beginning of the second part, he was talking about this picture

Tibetans exiles and some gullible dutch reporter claimed this was evidence for the people's armed police orchestrating the 2008 riots in Tibet by dressing up in fake monks robes.

Well they were partially right they were dress as monk not for riots but for for acting in a movie called "the touched" as extras (it is common for the PLA to supply extras for movies)

The touched was a film staring Michelle Yeoh (of Memoirs of a Geisha Fame) and was shot in Tibet in 2001.

 

[CardSharp]

Another interesting point he made is about the attempts at transparency that the PLA has made. He mentions that the PLA translated into English their main doctrinal textbook used in the staff colleges and sent 400 copies to the American Naval studies institute for gratis distribution in the American armed forces.

The Textbook is notable for outlining the very modest goals of the PLA and how much the PLA has focused on its own limitations and shortcomings.

 

[siegecrossbow]

In the beginning of the second part, he was talking about this picture

Tibetans exiles and some gullible dutch reporter claimed this was evidence for the people's armed police orchestrating the 2008 riots in Tibet by dressing up in fake monks robes.

Well they were partially right they were dress as monk not for riots but for for acting in a movie called "the touched" as extras (it is common for the PLA to supply extras for movies)

The touched was a film staring Michelle Yeoh (of Memoirs of a Geisha Fame) and was shot in Tibet in 2001.

Oh yeah the good old green uniforms. I recall that my parents were quite shocked when they changed it to the blue uniforms that we know and love today (they first noticed the change in Chinese TV shows). Well given how Western journalists screwed up with the photos (I won't go into details here) they probably thought that the Chinese police were strip searching the Lamas or something .

I literally loled at the part when Mr. Blasko said how the Pentagon will make guesses about the Chinese defence budget and then the journalists will take it as definitive proof that the real Chinese defence budget is two-three times that of the reported budget. So true!

So what does Mr. Blasko do for a living right now? Does he go around lecturing or is he still associated with the U.S. intelligence service?

 

[CardSharp]

Another thing to note is the modest scope and goals of the PLA's modernization program. China only expects to be a quote "middle power" by 2049 on the scale of Germany (interesting...)


@siege I think he's mainly consulting nowadays and writing books.

 

[CardSharp]

I think the one strength he highlights about the PLA is it's ability to learn and critically self-assess. He ends the lecture with the age old quote from Sun-Tzu.

So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss.

If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose.
If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I think the one strength he highlights about the PLA is it's ability to learn and critically self-assess. He ends the lecture with the age old quote from Sun-Tzu.

Which is chilling for the Chinese military. As he said he does not know whether the Chinese civilian gov. read up on the book on current Chinese military strategy (written in English for distribution in the U.S.!). Here is a guy with indepth understanding of Chinese defences and I can't help but wonder if some of the members in the CCP might get influenced too much by the "Fengqing" and push the Chinese military into a confrontation that it isn't ready for.

 

[no_name]

The book by Sun Tzu was great. It opened my eyes to new thinkings a couple of years back when I read it.

 

[CardSharp]

Which is chilling for the Chinese military. As he said he does not know whether the Chinese civilian gov. read up on the book on current Chinese military strategy (written in English for distribution in the U.S.!). Here is a guy with indepth understanding of Chinese defences and I can't help but wonder if some of the members in the CCP might get influenced too much by the "Fengqing" and push the Chinese military into a confrontation that it isn't ready for.

I am rather optimistic about the cooperation between the civilian leadership and military leadership.

Take another listen to 31:52 of the 2nd video. The report out lining the PLA's limitations and suggesting changes is attributed to Hu Jingtao himself. This clearly shows that Hu is well aware of what China can do and can't and will act accordingly.

He will also serve as the head of the Central Military Commision for 5 more years (I think) which means that he will remain China's military head even while he steps down as paramount leader. This should exert a stabilizing influence in government as Xing Jinping and Co. settles in to their new roles.

 

[CardSharp]

Yet another point that I found interesting in the video was the consensus building way that China makes its military decision. That the CMC chair is just another member and that no decision is made without a consensus building process.

Also (sorry lol) Blasko mentions that the composition of the CMC has changed from all PLA generals to include members of the PLA Navy and PLA airforce.

 

[no_name]

He will also serve as the head of the Central Military Commision for 5 more years (I think) which means that he will remain China's military head even while he steps down as paramount leader. This should exert a stabilizing influence in government as Xing Jinping and Co. settles in to their new roles.

Is it that way so that the new head can familiarise himself before being handed the military power? Because Hu didn't have military chair when he assumed presidency from Jiang either.

Does it also mean that there is 2 term limit on presidency but no strict term limit on military head to make sure the hard power is passed on only when the CCP is confident of the new head's ability?