US clears sale of Integrated Air defence weapons to India with AMRAAM C8/AIM-120D missile

[Pakistani Fighter]

$5 billion from Pakistan via the recent F16 deal.

What deal?

 

[khail007]

Hi,

Signalion maybe a god for you---but for me he is a nobody---.

Sir G, this forum is for learning, development and enhancing the knowledge. Here nobody is anybody's God. Some people have better way to explain and some just try to impose their opinions forcefully and in a disrespectful manner and I regret to say you are one of the second type.
You could only need to convey your opinion in respectful manner and and should not be done forcefully - people will keep on respecting you and your opinions but otherwise they will hit back and sorry to say that is what you are earning.
Pay respect and have respect - if some one have difference of opinion than do not hurt his feelings - Thanks for yor understanding.

 

[Wood]

What deal?

I think there is an upgrade program?

 

[Politico]

1965 war was about Indus water treaty which India tried to violate prior to the war and Ayub Khan started a campaign in IOK.
Then India attacked Pakistan and Pakistan whipped their rear side, making them to run away with their tails between their legs, and Indus water treaty was reinforced.
How is that not a victory?

What's your source for this claim ?

 

[Cuirassier]

Impressive, money talks.

 

[waz]

It’s a decent system but meant for defence of Indian cities.
Regardless they are building an impressive air defence network.

 

[Jackdaws]

Forget about biased articles, which are just opinions not facts.
Fact is that india with russian help killed own PM Shastri out of embarrassment and Ayub khan carried his dead body.
That is victory.

It was a good gesture by Ayub to be a pall bearer. Indira killing Shastri is similar to the myth of Taj Mahal being a Hindu temple and Nehru being a Muslim perpetuated by bhakts on social media. Don't fall for it.

 

[SIPRA]

It was a good gesture by Ayub to be a pall bearer. Indira killing Shastri is similar to the myth of Taj Mahal being a Hindu temple and Nehru being a Muslim perpetuated by bhakts on social media. Don't fall for it.

Conspiracy theories are the spice of life.

 

[Ali_Baba]

The advantage that this deal gives to India, is that she can now study the AMRAAM missile close hand and develop techniques and more importantly electronic counter measures to this missile.

Over time, this will degrade the effectiveness of the C5s in Pakistani service. That is the point of this procurement.

 

[PakFactor]

The advantage that this deal gives to India, is that she can now study the AMRAAM missile close hand and develop techniques and more importantly electronic counter measures to this missile.

Over time, this will degrade the effectiveness of the C5s in Pakistani service. That is the point of this procurement.

But at same time I'm sure Pak-China developed some sort of counter measures to the AMRAAMs as well.

 

[Cookie Monster]

AMRAAM have excellent target profiling and distinguishing capabilities. I do not recall any type of countermeasure which have managed to fool AMRAAM variants. This thing WILL kill under the right circumstances.

That's fine...each system usually has its own strengths and weaknesses. If this is AMRAAM's strength then maybe decoys(like MALD) wouldn't be as effective. This doesn't mean it's undefeatable...it may yet still be overcome through saturation.

All good ideas. Its something I am sure your planners are looking at. The new jet deals make the head lines, but the amount of SAM systems going to be integrated is unlike anything India has had before. Unlike anything PAF has dealt with before. With that being said, it's going to take some time get all systems ready.

Since we don't yet know what Pak might have in mind to counter these developments...I'm going to rather talk about it in a theoretical scenario of sorts(bcuz only time will tell how it actually plays out).

IMO based on recent push by lots of countries(US, Russia, China, etc.) towards hypersonic missiles along with research into AI(pertaining to drone swarms)...I think most modern air defense systems will struggle to adequately perform against such threats.

Imagine a saturation type of attack by a barrage of subsonic(at first) terrain hugging missiles that converge from different positions towards the radar of an S400(or some other system). At first they can be guided with datalink and then towards the terminal phase the missile can make a supersonic(or hypersonic if possible) dash towards the radar(e.g. anti radiation seeker). The terrain hugging low altitude flight of the missiles would considerably lower the detection range of the S400's radar due to Earth's curvature and the supersonic or hypersonic dash in the terminal phase would give hardly any time to react. Whatever success rate S400 will achieve in that small window of time shooting down some of those missiles wouldn't matter in the end bcuz some from that barrage will get through and take out the radar.

In the case of AI drone swarms(which I think is the most promising in dealing with modern day AD systems)...drone tech is already there...the missing piece of the puzzle is on the software side. Once such a system is ready...hundreds of drones can be launched towards a target(let's use S400 for an example again). There could be cheap kamikaze type drones that basically crash into whatever is the target(and keep on crashing into it until the swarm system deems the target destroyed)...among these kamikaze drones(that make up the majority of the swarm) there could be "brain" drones that have the necessary sensors on board to find and track targets and pass on targeting info to the kamikaze drones. In such a scenario each missile launched at a cheap drone like that to destroy it would cost way more. It becomes a lose lose situation...not launching missiles at the swarm is not an option(or else the AD system would be destroyed)...and launching missiles at them would be a very costly affair.

I don't mean to downplay the importance of AD systems...they are indeed very important...and I could be wrong in my above assessment.

 

[blain2]

People here keep on going in circles and get tied up in all sorts of knots.

Pakistan is the smaller power, yet a powerful country. India will always have more money and options to buy equipment for kinetic operations. We will do so selectively to have breadth of "options".

The key for Pakistan always was and will remain the ability to hurt India asymmetrically and proportionally as and when needed.

Let's just say that IAF inducts the fifth generation aircraft which pretty much limit PAF's offensive air operations. Even with this option limited, Pakistan will use other options at its disposal including ultra long range artillery and standoff attack systems to hit vulnerable points in India. Indians will hit back and Pakistan will reciprocate in equal measure plus some more. This is how this story will continue to unfold until they talk and work this out. There is no option of Indian domination of Pakistan. Those days of 1971 are gone Alhamdolilah.

Secondly, Pakistan does not have to respond tit for tat. It needs to register damage that is in proportion to what it takes (plus some more which is what is being termed as "quid pro quo plus") through any number of means available to it. By doing so, Pakistan retains the deterrence and the responses will also vary with air strikes as and when opportune, artillery strikes, sub-conventional attacks etc. and responses along the LoC giving Pakistan quite a few options to respond with.

We need to keep in mind that had air power won the war in Afghanistan/Syria, Americans/Israelis would have quit striking targets there months and years ago. But neither the Taliban nor the Iranians/Syrians are deterred because what the Americans/Israelis strike at is less than 5% of the overall capability of these actors. India's effort in the air cannot even come close to this because it will never have the freedom of operations as is available to the US and Israelis. Additionally, Pakistan's response obviously will not be muted like that of the Iranians and Syrians even if the options in the air are limited.

Also in the next round, Pakistan will not rush for a ceasefire. It will let things get hot and respond harder than Feb 27. This is not only expected but also necessary for Pakistan to ensure that India too feels the pain. If the escalatory rungs are traversed, then the same world powers that are sitting idly by will have to do something. Many of these powers think that by giving India the latitude to operate against Pakistan, they can change Pakistan's policy/behavior with regards to Kashmir, but this is a fallacy. There are other reasons as well for Pakistan to let things get hot and respond very aggressively.

 

[Dalit]

It’s a decent system but meant for defence of Indian cities.
Regardless they are building an impressive air defence network.

After 27th the Indians are improvising. It makes sense. They have some money to throw around.

People here keep on going in circles and get tied up in all sorts of knots.

Pakistan is the smaller power, yet a powerful country. India will always have more money and options to buy equipment for kinetic operations. We will do so selectively to have breadth of "options".

The key for Pakistan always was and will remain the ability to hurt India asymmetrically and proportionally as and when needed.

Let's just say that IAF inducts the fifth generation aircraft which pretty much limit PAF's offensive air operations. Even with this option limited, Pakistan will use other options at its disposal including ultra long range artillery and standoff attack systems to hit vulnerable points in India. Indians will hit back and Pakistan will reciprocate in equal measure plus some more. This is how this story will continue to unfold until they talk and work this out. There is no option of Indian domination of Pakistan. Those days of 1971 are gone Alhamdolilah.

Secondly, Pakistan does not have to respond tit for tat. It needs to register damage that is in proportion to what it takes (plus some more which is what is being termed as "quid pro quo plus") through any number of means available to it. By doing so, Pakistan retains the deterrence and the responses will also vary with air strikes as and when opportune, artillery strikes, sub-conventional attacks etc. and responses along the LoC giving Pakistan quite a few options to respond with.

We need to keep in mind that had air power won the war in Afghanistan/Syria, Americans/Israelis would have quit striking targets there months and years ago. But neither the Taliban nor the Iranians/Syrians are deterred because what the Americans/Israelis strike at is less than 5% of the overall capability of these actors. India's effort in the air cannot even come close to this because it will never have the freedom of operations as is available to the US and Israelis. Additionally, Pakistan's response obviously will not be muted like that of the Iranians and Syrians even if the options in the air are limited.

Also in the next round, Pakistan will not rush for a ceasefire. It will let things get hot and respond harder than Feb 27. This is not only expected but also necessary for Pakistan to ensure that India too feels the pain. If the escalatory rungs are traversed, then the same world powers that are sitting idly by will have to do something. Many of these powers think that by giving India the latitude to operate against Pakistan, they can change Pakistan's policy/behavior with regards to Kashmir, but this is a fallacy. There are other reasons as well for Pakistan to let things get hot and respond very aggressively.

Superb analysis. This is exactly how things are going to unfold. Let's not forget that India is also under the illusion that it is fighting a war against both China and Pakistan. Something we haven't even factored in this discussion. Indian purchases aren't all Pakistan centric.

The reason why India has behaved so pathetically can largely be attributed to certain world powers which tacitly approve their actions. The US is the leader in this regard. India doesn't move a leaf without consulting her ally US. Especially when it comes to dealing with Pakistan. There is no doubt in my mind that Balakot attack was carried out with full approval from USA. There were a few objectives to test the waters.

I agree that the next Indian move is going to have more escalating consequences. There is no doubt in my mind that under the leadership of Modi there is going to be another strike against Pakistan. It will be more intense and provocative. This is calm before a storm. The best thing Pakistan can do is prepare as best as possible. Our replies and scenarios need to be in place. Both militarily and diplomatically.

Let there be no doubt, the war between Pakistan and India has transformed into a proxy battleground for China and the US. Both sides are supporting their respective allies and testing the waters.

 

[SIPRA]

People here keep on going in circles and get tied up in all sorts of knots.

Pakistan is the smaller power, yet a powerful country. India will always have more money and options to buy equipment for kinetic operations. We will do so selectively to have breadth of "options".

The key for Pakistan always was and will remain the ability to hurt India asymmetrically and proportionally as and when needed.

Let's just say that IAF inducts the fifth generation aircraft which pretty much limit PAF's offensive air operations. Even with this option limited, Pakistan will use other options at its disposal including ultra long range artillery and standoff attack systems to hit vulnerable points in India. Indians will hit back and Pakistan will reciprocate in equal measure plus some more. This is how this story will continue to unfold until they talk and work this out. There is no option of Indian domination of Pakistan. Those days of 1971 are gone Alhamdolilah.

Secondly, Pakistan does not have to respond tit for tat. It needs to register damage that is in proportion to what it takes (plus some more which is what is being termed as "quid pro quo plus") through any number of means available to it. By doing so, Pakistan retains the deterrence and the responses will also vary with air strikes as and when opportune, artillery strikes, sub-conventional attacks etc. and responses along the LoC giving Pakistan quite a few options to respond with.

We need to keep in mind that had air power won the war in Afghanistan/Syria, Americans/Israelis would have quit striking targets there months and years ago. But neither the Taliban nor the Iranians/Syrians are deterred because what the Americans/Israelis strike at is less than 5% of the overall capability of these actors. India's effort in the air cannot even come close to this because it will never have the freedom of operations as is available to the US and Israelis. Additionally, Pakistan's response obviously will not be muted like that of the Iranians and Syrians even if the options in the air are limited.

Also in the next round, Pakistan will not rush for a ceasefire. It will let things get hot and respond harder than Feb 27. This is not only expected but also necessary for Pakistan to ensure that India too feels the pain. If the escalatory rungs are traversed, then the same world powers that are sitting idly by will have to do something. Many of these powers think that by giving India the latitude to operate against Pakistan, they can change Pakistan's policy/behavior with regards to Kashmir, but this is a fallacy. There are other reasons as well for Pakistan to let things get hot and respond very aggressively.

Excellent analysis. Appreciate it.

 

[Robin rone]

Excellent analysis there is few more things to consider

1. Air defence weapons mostly for defensive purpose and their relevance only appeared on war time planing and war time strategy

2. The aim120 air defence system India buying mostly a balance act and it will only deployed in capital city not near border's which make it not an active threat against PAF
3 neither India or Pakistan wish to do a prolonged war, also since both are nuclear powers any prolonged war cause more harm to rest of the world too, so intermediation by global powers will prevent it from happening

4 something like balkot is just for internal public consumption, and hence it won't cross nuclear threshold military powers like US or Russia give silent OK to it, but it won't be the cause for an all out war

5 rather than focusing on s400 and this new system u guys have to over look in yo other layered defense of India
mrsam - coming in 2020 range up to 70 km both army and iaf, threat for any paf strike package for an deep penitration mission's

Qrsam - coming in later 2022 or 23 which going to reaplce Russian qrsam of 80's era which make anti- cas role's harder

CIWS && self propelled air defense units : upcoming bhio from Korea and L&t or OFB ciws will strengthen Indians position on low level air defense much stronger

So in short the Indian air defence after 2021 will be much harder than what currently now, even employment of saw or long range mrls can only produce a limited amout of tactical success, for the sake argument saturation attack on s400 won't be effective as we think becoz considering it's range and open envelope s400 won't be deployed any where near the border or border district s, they mostly deployed in inner land's so any saturation attack the come to s400 have to go through Indian layered defence also s400 not a single system of will be a combination of systems where In short legs these system may protected by pantsir or bhio like systems too, in the end air defence degradation mission from paf won't be effective as now in future.

OK now let's come to solution part how can detter India's aggressive provoking with limited resources

1. Employment of 5th gen fighter platform for current regional balance PAF need least one squ. Consisting of 8 - j31 even its on development stage fielding a 5th gen for a short term until project azam get matured in to full system wild detter Indians from punitive strikes also of will be chance for China to improve it's stealth tech against modern western air defence Strats( Indian modern Ad system's radars based on western radar's in repainted tri colours)