Urban Middle Class Estimates in Pakistan

[deepak75]

I see that some of the posters here can not see the forest from the trees. They are totally missing the big picture...and the big picture is that India's middle class figures are highly exaggerated and Pakistan's middle class size is underestimated.

I do not know if "some posters" here are missing the forests (woods?) for the trees but I am sure that most non-sense on this thread is evident of some wood in the head.

Where is the evidence to support this "big picture" that we are missing and where are the proofs/surveys that show that "in Pakistan more than 30 - 35 Million people are earning more than USD 10,000 per annum" which is the opening argument of this thread?

What happended to the claimed report of SCB and the comments from the guy from SBP?

Back up your claims with the proofs. Also Riaz false claims can only take you so much far. Like they teach in the "morals & ethics" classes:

Character is what you are. Reputation is only what people think you are.

And false claims make the character show thru the reputation.....

Commonsense based on a combination of over $2 a day population, relative levels of urbanization and the Gini data easily leads to the conclusion that Pakistan likely has a bigger percent of its population in middle class than India.

Notwithstanding the Indian marketing hype, the figures from the UNDP, the World Bank, SBP and Standard Charter support the conclusions above.

Haq's Musings: Urbanization in Pakistan Highest in South Asia

Human Development Report 2009 - Population living below $2 a day (&#37

List of countries by income equality - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Bring the figures from SBP & SCB or a credible source for Pakistan proving what you have been ranting and I will talk to you. Otherwise have the basic decency to admit that you have been falsely misleading this forum.

Finally after having discussed this on this thread with you, I would like to bring up the following from the greatest brain of our times = Albert Einstein:

Any fool can know. The point is to understand.

 

[prodevelopment]

Reading this thread gives me a headache

 

[riju78]

I do not know if "some posters" here are missing the forests (woods?) for the trees but I am sure that most non-sense on this thread is evident of some wood in the head.

Where is the evidence to support this "big picture" that we are missing and where are the proofs/surveys that show that "in Pakistan more than 30 - 35 Million people are earning more than USD 10,000 per annum" which is the opening argument of this thread?

What happended to the claimed report of SCB and the comments from the guy from SBP?

Back up your claims with the proofs. Also Riaz false claims can only take you so much far. Like they teach in the "morals & ethics" classes:

Character is what you are. Reputation is only what people think you are.

And false claims make the character show thru the reputation.....




Bring the figures from SBP & SCB or a credible source for Pakistan proving what you have been ranting and I will talk to you. Otherwise have the basic decency to admit that you have been falsely misleading this forum.

Finally after having discussed this on this thread with you, I would like to bring up the following from the greatest brain of our times = Albert Einstein:

Any fool can know. The point is to understand.

deepak u wont get any answer.. he will just keep posting from someones blog and never reply..i have seen this number of times..karan desiman and quite a few have debunked him in other threads like u have and they have given up...i am really glad that we have people like u guys who can answer back not with rants but credible info and knows what u r talking abt..thanks

jai hind

 

[Skeptic]

Again, you have given about 10 years old data on TV sets ownership, when Pakistan had only a couple of TV channels. Today, there are over 100 channels in Pakistan.

The data I have given you about 68% of TV households in Pakistan vs 64% in India is from an Asian trade group that includes both Indian and Pakistani advertisers. It's in their own best interest to have accurate data for their clients and their business.

ATAC | Asia Television Advertising Coalition | Countries | Pakistan

Haq's Musings: Newsweek Joins Pakistan's Media Revolution

As to the Internet access data showing 11% access in Pak vs 7% in India, it's also available from ITU, the international telecom body.

Asia Internet Usage Stats and Population Statistics

Leave everything else, can you share the report based on which the claim of 30 million Pakistanis having average income of $10000 was made. If not, the entire thread and argument of yours stays invalid, unsubstantiated and based on hearsay.

 

[Hutchroy]

You are attempting to obscure the definition and size of the middle class in South Asia by bringing in misleading consumption figures.

Relative to their populations, there are so few cars in India and Pakistan that the vast majority of such owners most likely belong to the upper class..not the middle class of these countries.

Let's take households with TV for example. 68% of Pakistani households and 64% of Indian households have televisions.

11% of Pakistanis and 7% of Indians have Internet access.

Two-thirds of Pakistanis have cell phones versus less than half of Indian population with mobile phones.

ATAC | Asia Television Advertising Coalition | Countries | Pakistan

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Telecom Boom Continues

Oh, Grand Poobah of Disinformation, Salutations to you!!!

Figures for End June 2009 : Broadband subscription is 6.62 million

The figures you quote are thus 25% below the actual figures.

Please start quoting the latest figures and ensure that they are indeed correct.

 

[RiazHaq]

On a trip to Singapore a few years ago, a Singaporean jokingly described to me what he called ABCD of Indian problem solving.

He said he's seen some of his Indian friends and colleagues first AVOID the problem, then try and BYPASS it and if that doesn't work, then try and CONFUSE and finally DENY that the problem exists.

The problem we are talking about here is that there is deepening poverty and widening rich-poor gap in India that leaves little room for a genuine middle class to grow, and most Indians on this forum are DENYing this problem.

Citing consumption figures such as cars or Internet access means nothing for the middle class in India, the top 5% of Indians (about 55 million) who are rich are doing most of this consuming....and it's being advertised as middle class consumption.

The issue is really simple: Excluding 76% of Indian people below $2 a day (HDR 2009) and excluding the top 5% (as suggested by Birdsall), the population in India that could potentially be candidates for middle class description is reduced to less than 19%, most of whom are closer to $2 a day than $10 a day.

In Pakistan's case, if you exclude 60% poor (below $2 a day) and also exclude top 5% (as suggested by Birdsall), the potential pool for middle class is 35% of the population, almost twice as large as India's 19% for India.

Country Below $2 Top 5% Remainder (potential middle class)

India 76% 5% 19%

Pakistan 60% 5% 35%

Given Pakistan's lower rich-poor gap and higher urbanization than India's, there is a greater likelihood that a larger fraction of Pakistan's 35% belong to the middle class than India's 19%

 

[Hutchroy]

On a trip to Singapore a few years ago, a Singaporean jokingly described to me what he called ABCD of Indian problem solving.

Citing consumption figures such as cars or Internet access means nothing for the middle class in India, the top 5% of Indians (about 55 million) who are rich are doing most of this consuming....and it's being advertised as middle class consumption.


Country Below $2 Top 5% Remainder (potential middle class)

India 76% 5% 19%

Pakistan 60% 5% 35%

Given Pakistan's lower rich-poor gap and higher urbanization than India's, there is a greater likelihood that a larger fraction of Pakistan's 35% belong to the middle class than India's 19%

Figures for 2008 from the Pakistan Economic Survey 2008 – 2009

TABLE 13.3 :NUMBER OF MOTOR VEHICLES REGISTERED (000 Number) : 6,167,363 i.e. 6.167363 Million

TABLE 13.4 : MOTOR VEHICLES ON ROAD (000 Number) : 8,878.50 i.e. 8.8785 Million

Mr. Haq, how do you explain that the Number of Vehicles on the Road in Pakistan is 2.711137 More than the Number of Vehicles Registered in Pakistan?

Please confirm that it is quite normal for Pakistan to have 2.711173 Millions Car on the Road which are not even Registered!

As compared to the figures of Rich Pakistan here are the figures from Poor India :

Automobile Production Trends - Year 2007-08 : 10.853930 Million

Please note that in 2009-2010 India Manufactured 14.049830 Vehicles.

Regarding Middle Class : Pakistan's receiving Tens of Billions of US Dollars by way of Aid-Loans must be the reason for Pakistan's Humungous Middle Class. Since India does not receive Aid-Loans on the same scale or on a per capita basis must be the reason for India's Miniscule Middle Class.

 

[Skeptic]

On a trip to Singapore a few years ago, a Singaporean jokingly described to me what he called ABCD of Indian problem solving.

He said he's seen some of his Indian friends and colleagues first AVOID the problem, then try and BYPASS it and if that doesn't work, then try and CONFUSE and finally DENY that the problem exists.

The problem we are talking about here is that there is deepening poverty and widening rich-poor gap in India that leaves little room for a genuine middle class to grow, and most Indians on this forum are DENYing this problem.

Citing consumption figures such as cars or Internet access means nothing for the middle class in India, the top 5% of Indians (about 55 million) who are rich are doing most of this consuming....and it's being advertised as middle class consumption.

The issue is really simple: Excluding 76% of Indian people below $2 a day (HDR 2009) and excluding the top 5% (as suggested by Birdsall), the population in India that could potentially be candidates for middle class description is reduced to less than 19%, most of whom are closer to $2 a day than $10 a day.

In Pakistan's case, if you exclude 60% poor (below $2 a day) and also exclude top 5% (as suggested by Birdsall), the potential pool for middle class is 35% of the population, almost twice as large as India's 19% for India.

Country Below $2 Top 5% Remainder (potential middle class)

India 76% 5% 19%

Pakistan 60% 5% 35%

Given Pakistan's lower rich-poor gap and higher urbanization than India's, there is a greater likelihood that a larger fraction of Pakistan's 35% belong to the middle class than India's 19%

Your Singaporian friend might have mistaken you for an Indian and based his opinion on his interactions with you because it perfectly fills the bill. I can even spell it out:

AVOID: AVOID giving any concrete data, claim that a report proves a certain thing - then tuck away the report itself.

BYPASS: BYPASS all issues raised which counter your argument and pick only the weakest argument to reply.

CONFUSE: Confuse by quoting data from unreliable sources, quoting wikipedia and by overemphasizing a single factor like GINI COEFFICIENT.

DENY: DENY anything and everything, which counters you, or sinmply back to AVOID.

Only FACT presented by you has been - Pakistan has lesser number of people over $2 than India, which is not exactly unknown to the readers. Thread as well as the forum is to discuss Pakistan. Title - Given by you is PAKISTAN MIDDLE CLASS ESTIMATE, and till now you have given ZERO facts to prove that more than 5% of Pakistanis earn more than $10 per day.

Moreover you loose further credibility by saying things like:

Citing consumption figures such as cars or Internet access means nothing for the middle class in India

Middle class is actually defined for consumerism. To identify individuals who have disposable income and can consume products. To you these things seem irrelevant, but without actually estimating the size of Pakistani middle class - Actually the thread is irrelevant.

The problem we are talking about here is that there is deepening poverty and widening rich-poor gap in India

Why are we even discussing that in a thread titled : Estimation of Pakistani Middle Class? Is it you sole obsession with India which leads this thread, and so many others on this forum, towards this direction - Oh yes it is.
Kindly open another thread to discuss that.

 

[RiazHaq]

All this talk of cars and consumption in India by the so-called "Indian middle class" reminds of a recent interview of Indian economist Dr. Jayati Ghosh of JNU in Delhi.

Although large number of Indians estimated at 110 million have been the main beneficiaries of India's rapid economic expansion, their numbers are only about 10% of India's 1.1 billion people. The growth has excluded the rest of the 90% of the population, leaving them in abject poverty.

Watch this video:

Haq's Musings: BRIC, Chindia and the Indian Miracle

 

[karan.1970]

All this talk of cars and consumption in India by the so-called "Indian middle class" reminds of a recent interview of Indian economist Dr. Jayati Ghosh of JNU in Delhi.

Although large number of Indians estimated at 110 million have been the main beneficiaries of India's rapid economic expansion, their numbers are only about 10% of India's 1.1 billion people. The growth has excluded the rest of the 90% of the population, leaving them in abject poverty.

Watch this video:

YouTube - No Indian miracle

Haq's Musings: BRIC, Chindia and the Indian Miracle

Riaz

Its interesting that you make this comment about non inclusiveness of India's growth. A while ago, you said this in response to an article talking about growing inequalities in Pakistan

It is not unusual see the rich-poor gap increase during periods of rapid economic growth. India, China and Pakistan have all experienced growing inequalities during the last decade. The wealth must be be generated before it can be distributed.
But if no effort is made to address the growing inequality, then you can have tremendous social strife which hurts all, the rich and the poor.

Economy of Pakistan: Income Inequality

Different standards for India and Pakistan??

 

[RiazHaq]

Riaz

Its interesting that you make this comment about non inclusiveness of India's growth. A while ago, you said this in response to an article talking about growing inequalities in Pakistan

It is not unusual see the rich-poor gap increase during periods of rapid economic growth. India, China and Pakistan have all experienced growing inequalities during the last decade. The wealth must be be generated before it can be distributed.
But if no effort is made to address the growing inequality, then you can have tremendous social strife which hurts all, the rich and the poor.

Economy of Pakistan: Income Inequality

Different standards for India and Pakistan??

No, the standard is the same, but the results are different. India is much more unequal society than Pakistan for various reasons, including historical differences among regions and castes.

 

[Skeptic]

All this talk of cars and consumption in India by the so-called "Indian middle class" reminds of a recent interview of Indian economist Dr. Jayati Ghosh of JNU in Delhi.

Although large number of Indians estimated at 110 million have been the main beneficiaries of India's rapid economic expansion, their numbers are only about 10% of India's 1.1 billion people. The growth has excluded the rest of the 90% of the population, leaving them in abject poverty.

Watch this video:

YouTube - No Indian miracle

Haq's Musings: BRIC, Chindia and the Indian Miracle

Again keeping on your rant without evenTalking about the thread title: Eastimate of Pakistani Middle Class??
Which one is it??

AVOID???
BYPASS???
CONFUSE???
DENY???

You have avoided answering the single question posted in earlier post.
You have Bypassed the process to establish size of Pakistani middle class.
You are trying to confuse the issue.
As for DENY - You do it for almost everything thats true.


Lets talk about Pakistan first whether it has a middle class, then we can compare it to Indian one. Posting observations and comments of economists is not the way to settle any issue is it?? When we have access to data - why shy away from sharing any data from Pakstan and how more than 5% people earn more than $10 per day.

If we can estimate the size of Pakistani middle class then we can even start to compare with massive Indian middle class.

 

[deepak75]

On a trip to Singapore a few years ago, a Singaporean jokingly described to me what he called ABCD of Indian problem solving.

He said he's seen some of his Indian friends and colleagues first AVOID the problem, then try and BYPASS it and if that doesn't work, then try and CONFUSE and finally DENY that the problem exists.

The problem we are talking about here is that there is deepening poverty and widening rich-poor gap in India that leaves little room for a genuine middle class to grow, and most Indians on this forum are DENYing this problem.

Now that you are talking about anecdotes, I have one to share with you. Earlier this year, on one of my regular visits while passing thru Dubai on my way to Istanbul, I met an American in the business class lounge on the new terminal for he was also waiting for a connection in to Chicago and I was wasting my time waiting for the EK in to Istanbul.

As would happen with two bored business travellers, we said hello and once he got to know that I am an Indian he was more comfortable and he started talking to me and as always the discussion finally turned to the recession and the recovery and finally the different economies and also fleetingly for a moment to terrorism and economy of Pakistan.

Off the hand he just said that Pakistan's economic policy is nothing by BBS!

I was a little off my feet. ( Like a little toinnnnnggggged)

I mean I had heard of BS but BBS? So I thought probably he just mean to say "Bad BS". But he then thankfully elaborated and I give you his explanation as the following and I quote him:

He said that 1st Pakistan's Government will make lame excuses for all its past economic failures blaming it on all and sundry excuses except on its own elitist and non-revenue oriented policies and BEG for money from the world.

The he said that if that does not work then they will make all promises true or false (VAT implementation?) & BORROW from World Bank / IMF / Fiends of Pakistan etc.


Then finally he said that if nothing works then they will STEAL from any amount whether it is even for humanitarian donations. Like they used 150 Million from WHO provided for polio vaccinations for children to balance the budget last year.


Message: So let us keep the wisecracks out of this and come to the point.

Citing consumption figures such as cars or Internet access means nothing for the middle class in India, the top 5% of Indians (about 55 million) who are rich are doing most of this consuming....and it's being advertised as middle class consumption.

The issue is really simple: Excluding 76% of Indian people below $2 a day (HDR 2009) and excluding the top 5% (as suggested by Birdsall), the population in India that could potentially be candidates for middle class description is reduced to less than 19%, most of whom are closer to $2 a day than $10 a day.

In Pakistan's case, if you exclude 60% poor (below $2 a day) and also exclude top 5% (as suggested by Birdsall), the potential pool for middle class is 35% of the population, almost twice as large as India's 19% for India.

Country Below $2 Top 5% Remainder (potential middle class)

India 76% 5% 19%

Pakistan 60% 5% 35%

Given Pakistan's lower rich-poor gap and higher urbanization than India's, there is a greater likelihood that a larger fraction of Pakistan's 35% belong to the middle class than India's 19%

So let me try to understand your mathematics and deduction abilities and try to create an analogy or example:

You stuff yourself everyday with 1 Kilo of solid food.

You dump eveyday 0.5 Kilos of crap.

So then your weight should increase by 0.5 Kilos everyday !!!!



Cut the BBS Riaz. Bring on the proof of the the "30 - 35 Million Pakistanis earning more than USD 10,000 per year and making a strong middle class".

Do you now know why I quoted the genious Albert Einstien in the last post? Let me repeat it so that you can read it again.

Any fool can know. The point is to understand.

 

[RiazHaq]

Riaz,

Have you heard about kerala.
Its Biased Western Media .Google about Kerala , Learn some thing and then post.

Kerala is better than other regions, but Kerala too has serious problems of poverty, hunger and malnutrition.

The first India State Hunger Index (Ishi) report in 2008 found that Madhya Pradesh had the most severe level of hunger in India, comparable to Chad and Ethiopia. Four states — Punjab, Kerala, Haryana and Assam — fell in the 'serious' category. Gujarat, 13th on the Indian list is below Haiti, ranked 69. The authors said India's poor performance was primarily due to its relatively high levels of child malnutrition and under-nourishment resulting from calorie deficient diets.

Haq's Musings: Persistent Hunger on World Food Day in South Asia

 

[deepak75]

Kerala is better than other regions, but Kerala too has serious problems of poverty, hunger and malnutrition.

The first India State Hunger Index (Ishi) report in 2008 found that Madhya Pradesh had the most severe level of hunger in India, comparable to Chad and Ethiopia. Four states — Punjab, Kerala, Haryana and Assam — fell in the 'serious' category. Gujarat, 13th on the Indian list is below Haiti, ranked 69. The authors said India's poor performance was primarily due to its relatively high levels of child malnutrition and under-nourishment resulting from calorie deficient diets.

Haq's Musings: Persistent Hunger on World Food Day in South Asia

If you want to talk about the condition of that fine state of India otherwise lovingly known as "God's own country", open another thread and I will be happy to educate you.

Right now do not troll and get back to the "main focus of this thread" = 30 - 35 Million People earning more than USD 10,000 per year thus making a strong middle class in Pakistan.