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Unstoppable China factor
Expert presents the ‘other side of the coin’ in SCS territorial dispute
Recto Mercene
December 1, 201
CHINA, according to an internationally recognized academician, should not be totally blamed for ignoring the South China Sea (SCS) ruling handed down by the International Tribunal in The Hague in 2016, saying, “the United States likewise does not follow international law.”
“If you look at the United States, it does not follow international law. Not only are they not signatory to the Unclos [United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea], but the US will do to you without regard to the UN Security Council,” said Dr. Henry Chan, a Singapore-based development economist and senior visiting research fellow at the Cambodia Institute for Cooperation and Peace.
Chan cited the case of ousted Panamanian leader Manuel Antonio Noriega, whose regime, he said, was toppled by the US without the benefit of a trial. Noriega was the de facto ruler of Panama from 1983 to 1989 who enjoyed long-standing ties with United States intelligence agencies but was removed from power with the American invasion of Panama.
According to Chan, Filipinos must remember that the Unclos was developed under Western law, “which is based on no historical claim.”
“In Western law there’s no historical claim. All of a sudden China realizes it, that’s why when [retired Supreme Court] Associate Justice Antonio Carpio talks about Unclos, he should remember that you’re dealing with an ascending power [China],” he said.
The statement was in response to an admonition (BusinessMirror, November 27, 2019) that China should not begrudge the ruling of the international tribunal annulling its historic claim to the whole of SCS “because it gained what it lost by having the means to explore the resources of the high seas.”
China ignored the Tribunal’s 2016 ruling which, in effect, invalidated its expansive claims to the whole of SCS, based on history of continued presence in the contested waters since time immemorial.
Rule of the game
“The rule of the game is that you cannot use judicial angle when looking at things. You have to use the pragmatic, political tools and international diplomacy to deal with issues. I’m sorry to say [this], but that is the reality of history. To deal with a powerful nation and you talk about law? Try it on the White House,” Chan said. His comment was met with giggles from his audience that included journalists and author Carmen Navarro-Pedrosa and Wharton-educated George Sy, head of the think-tank IDSI, a non-profit global network of institutions studying innovations and events to propose integrated, implementable frameworks.
Dr. Chan, whose primary research interest includes Asean-China relations and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, said judicial interpretation should not be used to interpret political decisions.
“In the international arena, that’s very dangerous.”
He said China has a longer historical presence in the SCS, “and of course it is closer to the Philippines and we have this Unclos ruling.”
Chan said the key to understanding the underlying issues in the SCS is to consider that officially, the Philippines, starting in 1521, has a 600-year history, compared to Singapore’s 200 years since it was founded in 1819 by Thomas Stamford Raffles. Raffles negotiated a treaty whereby Johor allowed the British to locate a trading port on the island, leading to the establishment of the British colony of Singapore.
He said historically, China has been fishing in the SCS for thousands of years and has named some of the islands and shoals and reefs with Chinese names.
“The Filipino fishermen were coastal fishermen and never ventured more than a few kilometers away from the shores on their small fishing boats, or bancas,” Dr. Chan said.
The facts on the ground indicate that there’s an ascending China, he said.
“Everybody now agrees the US can slow down China but it cannot stop China because China’s growth momentum is indigenous—you cannot stop it.
“So from the Philippines point of view, based on reality, we have to look at what can the Philippines gain from this power transition.”
He said in considering the country’s interests, usually politicians and policy makers don’t really care about the United States, or about universal human values.
“We also don’t care about how China bullies us, so long as we’re defending our national interests,” Chan added.
Reality check
According to Chan, China has the natural advantage over Southeast Asia in the same manner that the US has an advantage over the Caribbean Sea. “You cannot change that.”
Added to this is the Filipinos’ cultural affinity with China since the country is much closer physically to the Asian giant than to the United States.
“I’m sure if many Filipinos trace their family tree, maybe somewhere, somehow, they have a trace of Chinese blood flowing in their veins,” Chan pointed out.
“What I’m trying to say is this: From the Philippines vantage point of view, because of the Filipinos’ geographic proximity with China, you have some natural links that are in favor of China. That’s very clear,” he added.
“You are close to China so China should be your trading partner. Who is now your number-one source of tourists, China? It’s cheaper for the Chinese to visit the Philippines, than for the Chinese to visit the US, right?” he said.
“That is the natural advantage of China, because of their proximity and presence in Southeast Asia,” Chan concluded.
Trends
Chan said that based on current trends, the population of non-whites in America will overtake the “whites” in 2050.
He said the whites will not take this sitting down and that’s why when Barack Obama was elected in 2009, “this scared those white Americans because until now they refused to admit that in 2050, white Americans are going to be the minority.”
Chan added that when Donald Trump followed Obama as the next president, “Trump, instead of moving toward that direction [of allowing more people of color to dominate US society]…moved in the opposite direction, defending the soon-to-be minority whites.
“Remember US history: who is the most violent group in America? They’re the KKK [Ku Klux Klan] and they’re all whites,” he said.
However, Chan warned of America’s “generational capability,” or their claim of “exceptionalism.”
He said observers must remember that “American history has that element of violence, how they handled the native North American Indians and the Mexicans, [and yes, the Filipinos and] remember how the US empire expands.”
https://businessmirror.com.ph/2019/12/01/unstoppable-china-factor/
Expert presents the ‘other side of the coin’ in SCS territorial dispute
Recto Mercene
December 1, 201
CHINA, according to an internationally recognized academician, should not be totally blamed for ignoring the South China Sea (SCS) ruling handed down by the International Tribunal in The Hague in 2016, saying, “the United States likewise does not follow international law.”
“If you look at the United States, it does not follow international law. Not only are they not signatory to the Unclos [United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea], but the US will do to you without regard to the UN Security Council,” said Dr. Henry Chan, a Singapore-based development economist and senior visiting research fellow at the Cambodia Institute for Cooperation and Peace.
Chan cited the case of ousted Panamanian leader Manuel Antonio Noriega, whose regime, he said, was toppled by the US without the benefit of a trial. Noriega was the de facto ruler of Panama from 1983 to 1989 who enjoyed long-standing ties with United States intelligence agencies but was removed from power with the American invasion of Panama.
According to Chan, Filipinos must remember that the Unclos was developed under Western law, “which is based on no historical claim.”
“In Western law there’s no historical claim. All of a sudden China realizes it, that’s why when [retired Supreme Court] Associate Justice Antonio Carpio talks about Unclos, he should remember that you’re dealing with an ascending power [China],” he said.
The statement was in response to an admonition (BusinessMirror, November 27, 2019) that China should not begrudge the ruling of the international tribunal annulling its historic claim to the whole of SCS “because it gained what it lost by having the means to explore the resources of the high seas.”
China ignored the Tribunal’s 2016 ruling which, in effect, invalidated its expansive claims to the whole of SCS, based on history of continued presence in the contested waters since time immemorial.
Rule of the game
“The rule of the game is that you cannot use judicial angle when looking at things. You have to use the pragmatic, political tools and international diplomacy to deal with issues. I’m sorry to say [this], but that is the reality of history. To deal with a powerful nation and you talk about law? Try it on the White House,” Chan said. His comment was met with giggles from his audience that included journalists and author Carmen Navarro-Pedrosa and Wharton-educated George Sy, head of the think-tank IDSI, a non-profit global network of institutions studying innovations and events to propose integrated, implementable frameworks.
Dr. Chan, whose primary research interest includes Asean-China relations and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, said judicial interpretation should not be used to interpret political decisions.
“In the international arena, that’s very dangerous.”
He said China has a longer historical presence in the SCS, “and of course it is closer to the Philippines and we have this Unclos ruling.”
Chan said the key to understanding the underlying issues in the SCS is to consider that officially, the Philippines, starting in 1521, has a 600-year history, compared to Singapore’s 200 years since it was founded in 1819 by Thomas Stamford Raffles. Raffles negotiated a treaty whereby Johor allowed the British to locate a trading port on the island, leading to the establishment of the British colony of Singapore.
He said historically, China has been fishing in the SCS for thousands of years and has named some of the islands and shoals and reefs with Chinese names.
“The Filipino fishermen were coastal fishermen and never ventured more than a few kilometers away from the shores on their small fishing boats, or bancas,” Dr. Chan said.
The facts on the ground indicate that there’s an ascending China, he said.
“Everybody now agrees the US can slow down China but it cannot stop China because China’s growth momentum is indigenous—you cannot stop it.
“So from the Philippines point of view, based on reality, we have to look at what can the Philippines gain from this power transition.”
He said in considering the country’s interests, usually politicians and policy makers don’t really care about the United States, or about universal human values.
“We also don’t care about how China bullies us, so long as we’re defending our national interests,” Chan added.
Reality check
According to Chan, China has the natural advantage over Southeast Asia in the same manner that the US has an advantage over the Caribbean Sea. “You cannot change that.”
Added to this is the Filipinos’ cultural affinity with China since the country is much closer physically to the Asian giant than to the United States.
“I’m sure if many Filipinos trace their family tree, maybe somewhere, somehow, they have a trace of Chinese blood flowing in their veins,” Chan pointed out.
“What I’m trying to say is this: From the Philippines vantage point of view, because of the Filipinos’ geographic proximity with China, you have some natural links that are in favor of China. That’s very clear,” he added.
“You are close to China so China should be your trading partner. Who is now your number-one source of tourists, China? It’s cheaper for the Chinese to visit the Philippines, than for the Chinese to visit the US, right?” he said.
“That is the natural advantage of China, because of their proximity and presence in Southeast Asia,” Chan concluded.
Trends
Chan said that based on current trends, the population of non-whites in America will overtake the “whites” in 2050.
He said the whites will not take this sitting down and that’s why when Barack Obama was elected in 2009, “this scared those white Americans because until now they refused to admit that in 2050, white Americans are going to be the minority.”
Chan added that when Donald Trump followed Obama as the next president, “Trump, instead of moving toward that direction [of allowing more people of color to dominate US society]…moved in the opposite direction, defending the soon-to-be minority whites.
“Remember US history: who is the most violent group in America? They’re the KKK [Ku Klux Klan] and they’re all whites,” he said.
However, Chan warned of America’s “generational capability,” or their claim of “exceptionalism.”
He said observers must remember that “American history has that element of violence, how they handled the native North American Indians and the Mexicans, [and yes, the Filipinos and] remember how the US empire expands.”
https://businessmirror.com.ph/2019/12/01/unstoppable-china-factor/
