since imran khan thrown away i was thinking to wrote few lines as i think of here is my two cents. ........
Establishment specially military establishment is one the most popular / organized /disciplined and motivated political force of pakistan . military establishment is most older and organized political party . the members of establishment work day and night honestly for their establishment . you will never see establishment member slow down even when their retirement is just few days away . they work for interest of establishment extremely aggressively . they don't care ethnic back grounds . you can see establishment members of military no matter from which province which district which ethnic background they are they will be united . leadership and members change but even after retirement they remain loyal to establishment . only few cases of dishonesty which establishment took so serious . why is this ?
when it was started ? how they gain such power ? how a poor country with budget of 55bn$ spends 11bn$ on defense ?how a poor country where police have no uniforms military have 40bn$ business empire ? how they end up here when they are dictating every gov no matter whom is ruling pakistan .they have unlimited budget that no other political party enjoy .they have tons of tons of data for all political parties . they have experience of almost 70 years now . their political cells are full of DATA about every Pakistani politician from his birth to date . they did not act armature like politicians . they play their cards well. with emotional public and new media like TV SOCIAL MEDIA they have massive public support . their wings like ISPR keeping public in line with military that now even people did not believe independent and free media but ISPR tweets . public have be hyphenated
understanding the establishment and their involvement in politics is most important . lets start from history
Pakistani forces were built on the philosophy of Great British Indian subcontinent units . after independence all three forces of British india were divided between india and pakistan . although officer were mostly British in 1947 /48 but many local officers were promoted soon after independence in royal Pakistani forces .for example ayoub kahn was just a colonel in RA during WW2 but soon after independence he became commander of east Bengal units . and letter commander of Pakistani forces . its huge leap in just 7 years .
soon after independence local military officers were start involving politics . a famous story of general gracey and ayoub khan encounters at airports in dahaka and karachi . he was very upset and rote twice letters to liaqat ali khan . local officers in starting was in race to get promotions with help of politicians . in fact it was race of ranks . local officers want to get rid of English officers ASAP . in 1951 almost every branch was busy to make native commanders of pak forces . skinder mirza was one of the major supporter of native commanders promotions
many of officers were promoted to fill the gap and hence overnight junior officers were promoted to high ranks .
the first real taste of power was when In 1950,skinder Mirza was promoted to two-star rank, having skipped the one-star promotion as Brigadier, and upgraded his rank as Major-General in the Pakistan Army. letter he was became defense secretory and finally he have became governor of east pakistan . On 1 June 1954, Mirza took over the Government of East Bengal from Chief Minister A. K. Fazlul Huq as part of the governor rule that dismiss the United Front. He imposed the martial law, backed by the East Pakistan Rifles and dismissed the East Bengal Legislative Assembly.Iskander Mirza ruled East Pakistan with an iron fist, having arrested 319–659 political activists on his first week, including Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Yusuf Ali Chowdhury.
in 1952 mizra became interior minister and 1955 he took over governor general post by overthrowing governor general malik ghulam . popular pakistani thinking is ayoub khan was first military commander whom throw our civilian give but in fact it was skinder mirza who gain power as officer and after that overthrown civil gov .
soon after ayub khan became commander in chief of pakistan he started political moves and involved in politics . in was ayoub khan whom signed CENTO pact even before he became marshal law admin. in 1958 ayoub overthrown skinder mirza yes the same skinder mirza whom played key role to promote ayoub khan .
it was first time in history when military became fully in power of pakistan . only 11 years after independence . native generals were looking at iraq egypt turkey how military overthrown govs and take over . in fact ayoub visited many countries as commander in chief .
in 1960 establishment played first election dirty game
In 1960, a referendum, that functioned as Electoral College, was held that asked the general public:"Do you have confidence in Muhammad Ayub Khan?". The voter turnout was recorded at 95.6% and such confirmation was used as impetus to formalize the new system – a presidential system
ayoub rule have set a course for pakistani military that they are only saviors of pakistan they have all the abilities and required expertise to rule properly this country . it was start of establishment properly . in 1960s when military was in rule the have increased and in fact got major shear in budget and purchased tons of western amercan military equipment including tanks jeeps jets submarines . also military establishment set a course for pakistan foregn policy as US dominated back then . USA was given bases in pakistan both east and west .
in 1964-65 when ayoub was highly unpopular and public was demanding end of marshal law . political activists were demonstrating ayoub started operation gibrator to divert the attention of masses . in result india attacked lahore and war of 1965 started . ayoub got relief from public demonstrations .
soon after establishment dirty politics with fatima jinnah nationwide protests started which ended the ayoub era but it was not end of establishment which was grown many folds during ayoub era .
establishment and gang of generals handed overpower to yahya khan . march 1969 yahya declare another marshal law after unrest but this dd not end unrest and in fact it increased the unrest . july 1969 yahya was forced to having elections which held in December .
1970 establishment with bhutto refused to handover powers to shekh mujeeb whom have won 161 seat against bhutto PPP with 81 seats . this unjust created a chaos in east paksitan and long waiting india have a good chance to take revenge . once again military establishment used force third time in row against east pakistan but this time india helped east and pakistan was defeated badly rest is history.
soon after defeat of 1971 establishment pulled back and let civilians rule the country for 5 years . bhuttos stupidity in 1977 bring back establishment in politics when militray establishment sided with PNA alliance .
this unrest of bhutto and PNA ended up when zia overtook the power and imposed marshal law . estableshment was back again with fresh powers and more energy . people were forget 1971 defeat in 8 years .zia era was one of the golden age of establishemnt . they have set new goals of nukes and missiles by working ongoing nuclear program . establishment having new firends in gulf . establishment have change its stance from pakistan to islam and start playing religous card . 11 years of zia era establishment grown up not only many folds but it was no return points . military in bussiness earnd billions . defense budget was increased many folds . modern weapons were puchased and pakistnai military was became on the most regional powerful military . with massive manpower and local generals now the establishment have propegenda branch ISPR . a perfect well equiped well trained force . a modern intelligence branch (as general akhtar abdul rehman said ISI do not have even afghan maps in 1979) .establishment poses since 1980 they are solution of every problem of pakistna they are saviors of not only country but islam and ideology of pakistan . they have started an era of jihadi wars in afghanistan and kashmir . this turned to be next page of bloodshade in region . paksitan not only turned to be terrorists heaven but also once a peaceful country became hub or AK-47 and DRUGS .THANKS TO ESTABLISHMENT they have got few good weapons but CIA have penetrated deep inside pakistan with help of establishment . not only militarily but civilan too .
after zia era establishment started play from behind . now establishment have own men and parties in politics . back then nawaz sharif /pir pagara / nawabzada nasrullah khan / nawab akbar bugti were men of establishment . in 1988 establishment made IJI against PPP and fully involved in election back channels .hamid gul admitted in 2009 that he as ISI cheif was behind IJI and thier funding . after PPP win establishment with help of thier proxies they have never let benazeer rule and its ended in 1990 .a new narrative of establishment was started in 1988 that polticians are corrupt . in fact establishment was corrupting politicians with distributing money . establishment make political parties like MQM to counter PPP in sindh .
in 1990 election establishment was again backing the IJI and this time IJI won and military was from bak door ruling the country . it was proven in court letter as
On 19 October 2012, the Supreme Court of Pakistan ruled on a petition by Asghar Khan, requesting that the court probe allegations that the 1990 elections had been rigged. The court officially ruled that two Army Generals – Mirza Aslam Baig and Asad Durrani (Head of the ISI) – along with President Ghulam Ishaq Khan – had provided financial assistance to favored parties.[9] The motive was to deliberately weaken the mandate of the Pakistan Peoples Party. It was believed that the PPP, led by Benazir Bhutto, was a liability to the nation
1993 nawaz gov was overthrown when with help of ishaq khan and even after restoration by court nawaz was forced to leave and new elections were held
this time benazeer was came to power but establishment have own plans . sooner corruption allegations were started and political ground was heating up which ended her gov to be dissolved by farooq laghari .
in 1997 election although establishment was betting nawaz sharif but sooner issues were started when nawaz was start acting a driven force on foreign policy . establishment do not like any civilian drive foreign of defense policy soon after vajpayee visit to lahore establishment played its card to destroy the good relations with india and started kargil war . this lead nawaz and military or collision course which ended up a new marshal law of parvez mushrraf .
musshraf era as its previous marshal laws was golden because f US war on terror and US AID . although it was new era but establishment played same old game making a new party and their new electibales with name on PMLQ . in 2002 elections establishment fully backed PMLQ and keep grip on politics as before . this time they were directly ruling the country while elections held unlike past 4 elections . MMA was formed for breaking the vote bank .
soon after benazeer assassination and lawyers movement mushrraf resigned and establishment pulled back as they always do after defeat . with support of USA and cold blood of zardari PPP ruled 5 years while not interfering military affairs . but with few issues like memo gate and usama raid establishment was in driving force as seen al the time . military budget was increasing every year even pakistan was in darkness and people were suffering for basic needs like water and electricity . establishment got a fresh excuse in 2005 when fundamentalists whom were grown and make by establishment to fight war in afghanistan and kashmir turned to pakistan after WOT . with this WOT military not only got budget but powers and fresh support of masses .
2013 elections establishment supported nawaz again and bring him to power after 15 years . but results were same as before soon after winning nawaz have issues with establishment . as pressure mount on gov from FATF IMF USA gov delivered the pressure to establishment for stopping proxies it was turned to be DAWN leaks gate and hence things went back as before nawaz loss the PM seat and started mujhay kiyo nikala . while establishment was busy for making next PM imran khan
this time they have bet on imran khan which labeled as selected . tings were rosy few months and then started issue when imran refuse to sign IMF deal . establishment entered the issue and forced imran to sign the deal as it was effected military budget and upcoming defense deals . this was turning point for imran khan as after signing IMF he could not deliver any of his promised on economy . once again another dispute with imran raise when he want to visit Russia and deal for cheap oil and gas which reduce dependence on KSA and dollar but things went out of hand which ended up letter gate . day after imran gen bajwa publicly announced establishment is with USA .And that was also signal for ppp PMLN and establishment electibales to change the side .
Lets calculate what establishment have red lines
establishment do not want civilian interference in military affairs
establishment do not want civilians drive foreign policy
establishment do not want end of enmity between indo-pak
establishment do not want any cut in military budgets
establishment do not want a popular and full powered civilian gov
establishment do not want civilian audit of military
establishment do not want any rejection of military hardware purchases
establishment do not want anti west gov policies by any gov
establishment do not want anyone interfere in their business empire
its now new era of establishment . now they do not want any party got majority or 2/3 majority . all they try their best at election times to having 150 seats for maximum by any party so they need electibles and establishment parties help to form gov . it is far easy for them to control or overthrow civilian gov with help of pro establishment members and parties like MQM . no civilian gov can take stance unless they have vast majority .
establishment play from back door so civilians always blame politicians . its not means politicians are saints . but when we say we have foreign loan surge to 100bn do we checked how much military hardware we purchased last 5 years ? how much we spend on military last 5 years ? pakistan have spend some 50bn$ on military in last 5 years .establishment do want civilian gov focus of improved south asia as business otherwise need of massive military will be reduced . think if indo pak have 50bn$ who will dare to fight ?(same apply in india too )
in last 74 years they have been involved in politics not only internal but they have now great links with USA UK GULF CHINA and so on . they have intelligence gathering system not only local but globally . they know every move before even pakistani PM PRESIDENT . their Geo political view is far bigger then pakistani FO .
i think with this much power and experiance no pakistani politician can defeat them or push them back . since when public is almost worshiping them . there is no hope of progressive south asia open borders trade and freedom . paksitan will remain under west USA IMF WB as our military budget will never let us go away .
in internal politics you will see any party came to power soon they will announce loyalty to establishment by saying military budget will not be effected . these are signs for some .judges open courts for them at night even 12am . There is long history of judicial use by establishment .they can use civil bureaucracy any time.its a very powerful state with in state . pakistan is like a city without wall and establishment is a very strong fort in this city .with high walls and armed to teeth .
for establishment politics is a game of chess .they play with pawns the political parties . politicians are pawns .they know very well what time they have to kill pawns what time throw them away and what is good time to bring them back in game . all of the parties need help of establishment to be in power . no one can rule here without game of establishment .
in internal politics establishment will never came out and takeover now . their goals achieved without taking over then why they dirty their hands ? instability and poilitacal chaos suits well to establishment . as pakistan will not be libya yemen iraq because political instability times we have a system . a bureaucracy which keep working . a strong military which defend country from out . so no matter who much political instability came nothing will happen on ground to country . imran khan or nawaz sharif or even MA JINNAH himself no one can took back from establishment powers they have .
