U.S. wants face-to-face meeting with Iran on prisoners

[Philosopher]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States would like a face-to-face meeting with Iran to discuss prisoner releases and it wants the U.N. Security Council to impose an indefinite arms embargo on the Islamic Republic, a senior U.S. diplomat said on Tuesday.

The two adversaries disagree on many issues, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision two years ago to abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under which Tehran limited its nuclear program in return for economic sanctions relief.

Trump has since restored U.S. sanctions that have choked Iran’s oil exports, the country’s main source of revenue, while Iran has accelerated its nuclear program. Washington believes Iran may seek a nuclear weapon, something Tehran denies.

Despite the tensions, the two sides struck a deal under which Iran on June 4 freed a U.S. Navy veteran it had detained since 2018 and the United States allowed an Iranian-American physician to visit Iran.


Speaking at a virtual event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said he hoped for further prisoner exchanges and talks on a wide array of issues.

Tehran has been reluctant to deal with Washington since the Trump administration abandoned the nuclear agreement, demanding the United States return to it.

“We’d love to have an in person meeting to have a consular dialogue so that we can move faster than we have,” Hook said.


“The door for diplomacy on our side is wide open, not just on these matters but on ... all the issues that have been bedeviling the US-Iran bilateral relations for 41 years,” he said, saying Trump “would like to get to the negotiating table.”

He also said Washington, which criticizes Tehran for backing proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, believes a U.N. arms embargo on Iran expiring in October should be extended indefinitely.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-meeting-with-iran-on-prisoners-idUSKBN23N342

 

[QWECXZ]

it wants the U.N. Security Council to impose an indefinite arms embargo on the Islamic Republic

 

[Philosopher]

It would appear administration after administration in the US have to learn the same lesson over and over, the lesson being that sanctions and pressure yield little when it comes to Iran. Due to the recent changes in America's internal dynamics, Trump's chances of winning a re-election are no longer as likely as people initially thought. I am seeing signs that Trumps wants to get a deal with Iran done before the US elections. As time goes on, he will become more desperate for an agreement with Iran. Whether Iran would enter negotiations now or wait to see what happens after the elections will depend entirely on the deal he is willing to sign. If another deal is to be reached, then from Iran's perspective the best Trump will get is the JCPOA but with some cosmetic changes to help him pass it as an achievement to his followers.

 

[hussainb72]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States would like a face-to-face meeting with Iran to discuss prisoner releases and it wants the U.N. Security Council to impose an indefinite arms embargo on the Islamic Republic, a senior U.S. diplomat said on Tuesday.

The two adversaries disagree on many issues, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision two years ago to abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under which Tehran limited its nuclear program in return for economic sanctions relief.

Trump has since restored U.S. sanctions that have choked Iran’s oil exports, the country’s main source of revenue, while Iran has accelerated its nuclear program. Washington believes Iran may seek a nuclear weapon, something Tehran denies.

Despite the tensions, the two sides struck a deal under which Iran on June 4 freed a U.S. Navy veteran it had detained since 2018 and the United States allowed an Iranian-American physician to visit Iran.


Speaking at a virtual event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said he hoped for further prisoner exchanges and talks on a wide array of issues.

Tehran has been reluctant to deal with Washington since the Trump administration abandoned the nuclear agreement, demanding the United States return to it.

“We’d love to have an in person meeting to have a consular dialogue so that we can move faster than we have,” Hook said.


“The door for diplomacy on our side is wide open, not just on these matters but on ... all the issues that have been bedeviling the US-Iran bilateral relations for 41 years,” he said, saying Trump “would like to get to the negotiating table.”

He also said Washington, which criticizes Tehran for backing proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, believes a U.N. arms embargo on Iran expiring in October should be extended indefinitely.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-meeting-with-iran-on-prisoners-idUSKBN23N342

This is just some sort of childish thinking to say the least. Why would Iran even want to talk to the US when trump's brain doesnt function. I cant believe that he said they should do less tests so that the number of corona cases would decrease in the US.
Now they are asking to negotiate with Iran and place an indefinite arms embargo on them? What are they high on?
Whatever the case is, neither Rouhani or Zarif should even care about these stuff.

 

[TheImmortal]

It would appear administration after administration in the US have to learn the same lesson over and over, the lesson being that sanctions and pressure yield little when it comes to Iran. Due to the recent changes in America's internal dynamics, Trump's chances of winning a re-election are no longer as likely as people initially thought. I am seeing signs that Trumps wants to get a deal with Iran done before the US elections. As time goes on, he will become more desperate for an agreement with Iran. Whether Iran would enter negotiations now or wait to see what happens after the elections will depend entirely on the deal he is willing to sign. If another deal is to be reached, then from Iran's perspective the best Trump will get is the JCPOA but with some cosmetic changes to help him pass it as an achievement to his followers.

There is no time to get a deal. The minimum time to get a new deal is 12 months. These groups meet once every 2-3 months then go back to capitals and discuss strategy. Look how long it took to get to initial POA then JCPOA or whatever it’s called. It took years.

No way Iran negotiates prior to Nov that would be stupidity and no benefit to Iran.

Also no way Iran negotiates until IRANIAN elections are finished. The Republic will not award Rouhani another victory. It won’t.

So sit back and wait. If Trump wins election then Iran establishment will have to decide between 4 more years of sanctions and waiting for him to leave OR negotiate with him and hope you can get more concessions from him because he cares about “diplomatic victory”.

 

[Philosopher]

There is no time to get a deal. The minimum time to get a new deal is 12 months. These groups meet once every 2-3 months then go back to capitals and discuss strategy. Look how long it took to get to initial POA then JCPOA or whatever it’s called. It took years.

This is assuming the process will involve an entirely new deal from scratch. Like I said in my comment, the best the Trump's administration will get is the JCPOA which is cosmetically altered give him the ability to pass it as a "Trump's nuclear deal".

No way Iran negotiates prior to Nov that would be stupidity and no benefit to Iran.

This depends on whether Trump offers the sensible deal outlined above. If Iran can get back to a JCPOA type deal and get sanctions relief, it will go for it. I am not saying whether this possibility is likely or not, just a hypothetical scenario.

Also no way Iran negotiates until IRANIAN elections are finished. The Republic will not award Rouhani another victory. It won’t.

Rouhani and the "reformist" camp have been seriously hit by this disillusioned nuclear deal. They understand fully well that their credibility has been seriously reduced in favour of the principalists. If Rouhani can redeliver sanctions relief using that deal, then I am inclined to see the deal being allowed through. Sanctions relief is an important need if Iran can achieve it without making concession beyond JCPOA. From my point of view, Rouhani's reformist camp need a deal more than Iran needs sanctions relief.

So sit back and wait. If Trump wins election then Iran establishment will have to decide between 4 more years of sanctions and waiting for him to leave OR negotiate with him and hope you can get more concessions from him because he cares about “diplomatic victory”.

This is contingent on Trump and how confidently he feels he can win the next elections. If things stay the same or get worse for him, I can envisage him pushing for a deal now. If not, then the situation will extend into the next administration.

 

[TheImmortal]

This is assuming the process will involve an entirely new deal from scratch. Like I said in my comment, the best the Trump's administration will get is the JCPOA which is cosmetically altered give him the ability to pass it as a "Trump's nuclear deal".




This depends on whether Trump offers the sensible deal outlined above. If Iran can get back to a JCPOA type deal and get sanctions relief, it will go for it. I am not saying whether this possibility is likely or not, just a hypothetical scenario.



Rouhani and the "reformist" camp have been seriously hit by this disillusioned nuclear deal. They understand fully well that their credibility has been seriously reduced in favour of the principalists. If Rouhani can redeliver sanctions relief using that deal, then I am inclined to see the deal being allowed through. Sanctions relief is an important need if Iran can achieve it without making concession beyond JCPOA. Rouhani's reformist camps need a deal more than Iran needs sanctions relief.



This is contingent on Trump and how confidently he feels he can win the next elections. If things stay the same or get worse for him, I can envisage him pushing for a deal now. If not, then the situation will extend into the next administration.

You grossly underestimate the time for a legal deal to be completed. Just go look at how long it took for a “Phase 1” baloney trade deal with China. Now compare that little league deal to something as big as nuclear proliferation deal.

Doesn’t matter what Trump wants. His words mean little. What did North Korea achieve by talking to him? Despite all of trump’s affectionate talk...Kim Jong Un is still sitting under sanctions. All he had was a photo op. Which is exactly what Iran doesn’t want.

Also it doesn’t matter what Rouhani and reformist camp want. The other camps, IRGC and the Republic want a different person (see hardliner) to negotiate the future deal. If Trump gets re-elected then Iran will put a hard liner into president to match Trumps hardliners persona.

 

[Philosopher]

You grossly underestimate the time for a legal deal to be completed. Just go look at how long it took for a “Phase 1” baloney trade deal with China. Now compare that little league deal to something as big as nuclear proliferation deal.

The point is, the JCPOA already exists, small cosmetic changes can be dealt with in a very short period of time. No need for the sort of intense negotiation you saw when creating the JCPOA itself. But yes, time is quickly running out for such a deal before the next American elections.

Doesn’t matter what Trump wants. His words mean little. What did North Korea achieve by talking to him? Despite all of trump’s affectionate talk...Kim Jong Un is still sitting under sanctions. All he had was a photo op. Which is exactly what Iran doesn’t want.

Iran will never sit at the table with him if it's just about a photo op. From what we know, Zarif already rejected to meet at the UN with the Americans precisely due to this reason. If Trump becomes interested in an actual deal, this will be made known behind the scenes.

Also it doesn’t matter what Rouhani and reformist camp want. The other camps, IRGC and the Republic want a different person (see hardliner) to negotiate the future deal. If Trump gets re-elected then Iran will put a hard liner into president to match Trumps hardliners persona.

In my opinion regardless of whether Rouhani manages to get an agreement Iran's next president will be from the principalist branch. However, the does not alter the reality that Rouhani's camp desperately needs a deal for credibility reasons and Iran itself requires sanctions relief. If this can be achieved during Rouhanis tenure, then I do not see Supreme leader's office preventing it.

 

[TheImmortal]

The point is, the JCPOA already exists, small cosmetic changes can be dealt with in a very short period of time. No need for the sort of intense negotiation you saw when creating the JCPOA itself. But yes, time is quickly running out for such a deal before the next American elections.



Iran will never sit at the table with him if it's just about a photo op. From what we know, Zarif already rejected to meet at the UN with the Americans precisely due to this reason. If Trump becomes interested in an actual deal, this will be made known behind the scenes.



In my opinion regardless of whether Rouhani manages to get an agreement Iran's next president will be from the principalist branch. However, the does not alter the reality that Rouhani's camp desperately needs a deal for credibility reasons and Iran itself requires sanctions relief. If this can be achieved during Rouhanis tenure, then I do not see Supreme leader's office preventing it.

Dangerously naive about Iran’s internal politics and dangerously naive about what the West is after. The fact you look for a “cosmetic” Change in deal shows ignorance my friend.

The west is not after cosmetic deal, the west is after dismantlement. Iran will stay under sanctions until it gives up concessions that MEAN something. A few tanker attacks, a missile base attack, and oil facility attack is not going to change the facts on the ground. US can keep sanctions on Iran indefinitely. Iran can kick and scream and yell bloody murder at the UN. No one gives a damn. The world doesn’t trade in the rial, it trades in the dollar. Learn that fact and you will find out why the US can push other countries around and skirt legal law.

Rouhani will not get another chance, he was priming himself to be a reformist supreme leader (With help from West). But his tenure has cemented in minds of Iranians a disaster. Supreme leader has all but ruled out negotiations with Trump. He doesn’t want his legacy to be he authorized a nuclear deal with an adulterous and a man who has never graced the Bible in his hand.

Don’t be surprised if it’s 4 more years of brinksmanship.

 

[Philosopher]

The west is not after cosmetic deal, the west is after dismantlement. Iran will stay under sanctions until it gives up concessions that MEAN something.

"The west" had already agreed to the JCPOA, this current situation is due to the backtracking of one of the party members. Iran can live under the sanctions, however like I have told you few times already, if Trump wants a deal, he will only get the same deal but in a different name with minor changes (at best).

A few tanker attacks, a missile base attack, and oil facility attack is not going to change the facts on the ground. US can keep sanctions on Iran indefinitely. Iran can kick and scream and yell bloody murder at the UN. No one gives a damn. The world doesn’t trade in the rial, it trades in the dollar. Learn that fact and you will find out why the US can push other countries around and skirt legal law.

What we are discussing here is not how the Americans apply sanctions or whether they can, the discussion here is about Trump agreeing to make a deal.

Rouhani will not get another chance,

There is no reason why he would not, assuming he can deliver sanctions relief.

he was priming himself to be a reformist supreme leader (With help from West).

Rouhani was never priming himself nor did he ever had a chance of becoming a supreme leader, I am not sure where you are getting this from.

But his tenure has cemented in minds of Iranians a disaster. Supreme leader has all but ruled out negotiations with Trump. He doesn’t want his legacy to be he authorized a nuclear deal with an adulterous and a man who has never graced the Bible in his hand.

So what you are saying is if Trump is willing to make the concessions I outlined and Iran can get sanctions relief, that both Supreme leader and Rouhani will refuse to deal based on Trump's piety? This is not how the real world works my friend. Pragmatic nations focus on their goals, and in Iran's case, sanction relief is an important part of its long term plan. Sanctions are not an existential threat, but they are a hindrance to Iran's growth. If Iran believes Trump can deliver a deal and can live up to the concept of Pacta Sunt Servanda then this is a possibility. However Trump needs to convince the Iranians of this, and it will not be easy for him given his tendency to rip all the agreements in front of him.

Don’t be surprised if it’s 4 more years of brinksmanship.

This is one of the possibilities, what I have commented on in this thread is another possibility. Only time will tell which one comes to pass over the other.

 

[TheImmortal]

"The west" had already agreed to the JCPOA, this current situation is due to the backtracking of one of the party members. Iran can live under the sanctions, however like I have told you few times already, if Trump wants a deal, he will only get the same deal but in a different name with minor changes (at best).




What we are discussing here is not how the Americans apply sanctions or whether they can, the discussion here is about Trump agreeing to make a deal.



There is no reason why he would not, assuming he can deliver sanctions relief.



Rouhani was never priming himself nor did he ever had a chance of becoming a supreme leader, I am not sure where you are getting this from.



So what you are saying is if Trump is willing to make the concessions I outlined and Iran can get sanctions relief, that both Supreme leader and Rouhani will refuse to deal based on Trump's piety? This is not how the real world works my friend. Pragmatic nations focus on their goals, and in Iran's case, sanction relief is an important part of its long term plan. Sanctions are not an existential threat, but they are a hindrance to Iran's growth. If Iran believes Trump can deliver a deal and can live up to the concept of Pacta Sunt Servanda then this is a possibility. However Trump needs to convince the Iranians of this, and it will not be easy for him given his tendency to rip all the agreements in front of him.




This is one of the possibilities, what I have commented on in this thread is another possibility. Only time will tell which one comes to pass over the other.

You have this notion that Trump wants an Iran deal. No he “says” he wants a deal, but has made no effort to do so. Same with North Korea trump is fine dragging his feet, but he isn’t going to give away anything.

So you have no basis of evidence US wants a deal. You are just assuming what tump thinks and will do without a shred of evidence.

US already has best of both worlds they have sanctions on Iran and Iran is still abiding with most restrictions. Compare situation now to 2010 when Iran’s nuclear program was at full strength.

Why would US come back now? Iran has done token violations of the deal. Nothing that the US cares about. Meanwhile it has crushed Iranian oil revenues and damaged the economy causing unrest among the population. Why would they want to come back to the deal? US is trying to contain Iranian influence in the Middle East. Sanctions are a tool to do that as is dragging out the Syrian civil war as is allowing Israel to go to town on Iranian military assets in Syria.

Like the Supreme Leader said, the issue isn’t really over the nuclear program it’s over Iran’s regional actions and policies. The nuclear program is just the excuse of the hour to be used to justify US policy.

You have this warped notion that Trump and the West are desperate for a deal. Far from it. The deal isn’t affecting the global economy and Iran has little leverage to pressure the US to do a deal quickly.

There is no JCPOA right now. Don’t be delusional like the moderates. Right now Iran is under full sanctions and has no benefits from the deal. The US is the only party to the JCPOA that actually matters. US owns Europe and no company on Earth would dare to send Iran a postcard let alone do business over sanctions fears. Russia and China are not allies and have significant ties to the US markets, thus regardless of what they say they can’t do much either to help Iran.

 

[Philosopher]

You have this notion that Trump wants an Iran deal. No he “says” he wants a deal, but has made no effort to do so. Same with North Korea trump is fine dragging his feet, but he isn’t going to give away anything.

That is why I said if he is truly interested in such a deal, this will be made clear to Iran behind the scenes and then Iran can decide whether they will trust him on that. I do not speak for Iran, this all conjecture.

So you have no basis of evidence US wants a deal. You are just assuming what tump thinks and will do without a shred of evidence.

What "evidence" are you looking for exactly?

US already has best of both worlds they have sanctions on Iran and Iran is still abiding with most restrictions. Compare situation now to 2010 when Iran’s nuclear program was at full strength.

I agree with you here, if you check the new thread I opened today, I talk regarding Iran's future in the JCPOA.

Why would US come back now? Iran has done token violations of the deal. Nothing that the US cares about. Meanwhile it has crushed Iranian oil revenues and damaged the economy causing unrest among the population. Why would they want to come back to the deal? US is trying to contain Iranian influence in the Middle East. Sanctions are a tool to do that as is dragging out the Syrian civil war as is allowing Israel to go to town on Iranian military assets in Syria.

It will come back for exactly the same reason America joined in the first place. They understand how quickly the situation can return to pre-JCPOA level and grow rapidly from there. That rate of growth is calculated by Iran.

Like the Supreme Leader said, the issue isn’t really over the nuclear program it’s over Iran’s regional actions and policies. The nuclear program is just the excuse of the hour to be used to justify US policy.

Of course, everyone knows this. But the reality is, Iran saw an opportunity to remove sanctions using the nuclear card and it went for it. It has failed to a great extended, but I am saying that door is not closed fully shut, yet.

You have this warped notion that Trump and the West are desperate for a deal. Far from it. The deal isn’t affecting the global economy and Iran has little leverage to pressure the US to do a deal quickly.

On the contrary, I think you are underestimating how significant they consider Iran's nuclear program. From the Israeli issue to regional proliferation, there are few very important factors.

There is no JCPOA right now. Don’t be delusional like the moderates.

JCPOA exists, but it's on life support. If it did not exist like you say, Iran would not be committing to its requirements even an iota.

Right now Iran is under full sanctions and has no benefits from the deal. The US is the only party to the JCPOA that actually matters. US owns Europe and no company on Earth would dare to send Iran a postcard let alone do business over sanctions fears. Russia and China are not allies and have significant ties to the US markets, thus regardless of what they say they can’t do much either to help Iran.

These sanctions you are seeing are "only" the US secondary sanctions. The UNSC sanctions, Europeans sanctions etc are all lifted. The issue is the US sanctions unilaterally are the most important and biting sanctions. It remains to be seen whether we see a deal with Trump or not, minus creating conjectures, all we can really do is just let time show us what happens.