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NEW DELHI: India's worst-case scenario is a simultaneous two-front war. This nightmarish possibility is fuelled by the ever-deepening military nexus between China and Pakistan, ranging from continuing assistance in the nuclear and missile arenas to presence of Chinese soldiers in Pakistan 0ccpied Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan areas.
Much before defence minister A K Antony formally directed them to do so in 2009, Indian armed forces were already "actively" factoring this two-front contingency into their plans and doctrines. But while planning for the worst is good strategy, many military experts say the likelihood of a two-front war seem remote.
China may have long used Pakistan to peg India down in South Asia but has never directly intervened on Islamabad's behalf during any Indo-Pak conflict. Moreover, even as it shadow boxes with the US in Asia-Pacific and elsewhere, China remains wary of doing anything that may force India to firmly join the American corner.
The threat of a single-front conflict or skirmish is "much more real". Pakistan has always been the more in-your-face threat for India, stoking militancies, launching incursions and rattling its nuclear sabre. "But Pakistan can be managed," says a senior military officer.
"China is the actual long-term threat. Its strategic intentions remain unclear. We have to constructively engage with Beijing but also keep our powder dry for all eventualities," he adds.
Both in terms of nuclear as well as conventional military power, China by far outstrips India. China's primary aim is to dissuade any US intervention in the Taiwan Strait or the larger South China Sea, but ground realities cannot be ignored.
China has systematically built military infrastructure all along the unresolved 4,056-km Line of Actual Control (LAC), with five airbases, an extensive rail network and over 58,000-km of roads in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). Apart from deploying medium-range ballistic missiles and fighters on the Tibetan plateau, People's Liberation Army (PLA) has now also taken to holding a series of high-end air and ground combat exercises near the Indian borders.
Beijing also continues to systematically widen its arc of influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by forging extensive maritime linkages with eastern Africa, Seychelles, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan, among others. "China may be doing all this to protect its sea lanes supplying energy but it also strategically encircles India," says a naval officer.
The PLA's increasingly "aggressive" behaviour along the LAC, with over 550 "transgressions" into Indian territory being recorded just since January, 2010, also points to a deliberate hardening of its stand in laying claim to disputed areas.
Indian armed forces, however, are no longer the pushovers they were. "I assure the nation as Army chief that 1962 will not be repeated...Nahi Hoga!" says General Bikram Singh.
Adds another officer, "In terms of equipment and training, we are far better off now. We learnt our lessons from 1962 and built them into our plans. China's armed forces may be more than double our size but they do not have the kind of force ratios that will overwhelm us."
IAF and Navy, too, have emerged as forces to reckon with. Air Chief Marshal N A K Browne asserts India could have even turned the tables on China during 1962 if it had used "offensive airpower", much like it did against Pakistan during the 1999 Kargil conflict. "It was airpower that concluded the (1999) war," he says.
Sukhoi-30MKI fighters taking off from Tezpur and Chabua, or Leh and Thoise for that matter, can strike high-value targets deep inside China with mid-air refuelling. Similarly, China may have last month commissioned its first aircraft carrier, the 65,000-tonne Liaoning, but Indian Navy is leagues ahead in blue-water experience. If required, Indian warships can effectively "interdict" Chinese sea lanes for its energy imports, as can fighters based in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
India has been slow to react to China's strategic moves, both on land borders as well as IOR. But after deploying Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, missile squadrons and spy drones in the north-east as well as raising two new divisions (over 15,000 soldiers each) in Nagaland and Assam over the last couple of years, planning is now underway to raise a new mountain strike corps (over 35,000 combat troops) in the 2012-17 timeframe.
India cannot hope to ever compete with China in terms of military assets or manpower, but a repeat of the abject knockout in 1962 is no longer possible. "We can punch back now," says a Major-General.
China's strength
* Annual defence budget: $106 billion
* Large nuclear-capable missile arsenal, with ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) and SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles). DF-31A ICBM can hit targets 11,200-km away, while the JL-2 SLBM has a reach beyond 7,200-km
* Armed Forces: 2.2 million troops
* Submarines: 55 (10 nuclear-powered, at least 3 with long-range ballistic missiles)
* Major Warships: 75 (one aircraft carrier recently commissioned)
* Fighter Jets: Over 1,600
* Main-Battle Tanks: Over 7,000
India's strength
* Annual defence budget: $39 billion
* Limited nuclear-capable missile arsenal, no ICBMs and SLBMs. Prithvi (350-km), Agni-I (700-km) and Agni-II (2,500-km) inducted. Agni-III (3,000-km) now under induction, while Agni-IV (3,500 km) and Agni-V (over 5,000-km) still being tested.
* Armed Forces: 1.3 million troops
* Submarines: 15 (14 conventional, one nuclear-powered)
* Major Warships: Over 30 (one aircraft carrier)
* Fighter Jets: Over 550
* Main-Battle Tanks: Over 3,200
Two-front war remote, but threat from China real - The Times of India
