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Turkish-Russian Relations: Pragmatism in the Air
Guner Ozkan
USAK Center for Eurasian Studies
Monday, 3 December 2012
Turkish-Russian relations have always followed in a bumpy road, perhaps with only exception of post-World War I. For over 20 years, intensity and directions of the relationships between the two have been largely determined by their own individual state interests and less by the imposition of systemic international order and balance of power in specific areas in various regions. Also, time to time, priorities of the two states have overlapped over a number of areas, and Turkey and Russia have strived for having a developed economy, secure and stable country, region and international order. They are mainly these reasons why today Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting Turkey despite the fact that there is a serious tension over Syria in which Turkey and Russia are representing opposing poles. Therefore, it can be said that, despite difficulties, current relationships between Turkey and Russia are reflecting pragmatism as the agenda of Putin in Ankara is filled more with furthering social, economic, cultural and trade economic and trade links and less with discrepancies on Syria, NATO and other strategic security matters. However, this does not say that current pragmatism between the two states is based on solid foundations that can save their mutually beneficial cooperation from collapse in most bilateral, regional and international crisis. If not being careful, the Syrian issue, as well as some others like ethno-territorial and inter-state disputes in the South Caucasus, is such a case that can quickly change the sunny day of Turkish and Russian relations to a dark one.
Economic projects led to pragmatism
The argument is that existing trade volume and future prospect of bilateral economic relations between Turkey and Russia have allowed both parties to act pragmatically. This seems to be true if one looks into the details of economic cooperation and objectives of AK Party government in Turkey and Putins rule in Russia.
Trade volume of the two reached about 35 billion dollars in 2011 from around 5 billion dollar in 2003 when just after both AK Party and Putin came into power in 2002 and 2000, respectively. Regardless of the current trade disparity which is in favour of Russian with gas export, economic prospect in other areas of construction, tourism, textile, banking and nuclear power plant and many more are encouraging Turkey and Russia to go farther ahead . Both Turkey and Russia want to increase their trade volume up to 100 billion dollars in few years and to accomplish this they have open channels and solid projects on the table.
The main objective of the Turkey-Russia High Level Cooperation Council set up in 2010 was to accelerate bilateral economic cooperation and remove any hurdles obstructing mutual trade as quickly as possible in order not to delay the benefits both parties would get. The joint Council also consists of social and cultural dimensions which are expected to help boost further development of economic relations and remove remains of mutual historical mistrust between the Turks and the Russians.
Level of economic exchange, future prospect and their will of cooperation are all great achievements for Moscow and Ankara. They both cannot now easily turn down the benefits of existing and future possible trade and other relations, especially at a time when AK Party in Turkey and Putin in Russia have held power for over a decade that it is largely attained by their successful policies in the area of economic stability.
Differing views on Syria
Current and future economic benefits that Turkey and Russia have had can be challenged by different views they have had on Syrian conflict.
Despite Turkeys intensive efforts, Russia, alongside China, vetoed the UN Security Council resolutions aimed at pressurizing Syrian regime. For Russia, as thought any settlement in the Syrian conflict could be reached by settling scores of the regime and opposition by splitting as much blood as possible until the moment one side gives up. For the Turkish side, there must be a different way as the Syrian crisis next door to Turkey poses serious security threats to Ankara and created a human rights crisis and humanitarian disaster on such a scale that they are equivalent to what the world witnessed in the Balkans against the Bosnian Muslims in the 1990s.
Evidently, while Russia has seen the Syrian crisis through maintaining and promoting more of its interests, Turkey has had to consider it as more of a moral issue. This does not, of course, suggest that Turkey is not taking into account of its short and long term security and other interests in its Syria policy. After all, despite some risks, a democratic Syria and Middle East in general is much more in tune with the long-term interests of Turkey, but less with those of Russia.
At least, for now, Turkey and Russia appear to have put aside their differences on Syria and prioritized their immediate benefits being generated from their intensifying economic and trade relations. Most vivid examples of this choice is perhaps the carefully weighed behaviour of both Russia and Turkey that they have displayed on the issue of a Syrian passenger plane that was landed by force in Ankara in October on the basis of carrying military equipment. This does not mean that passenger plane issue in particular, and other problems of Syrian crisis, instalment of Patriot systems along the border between Turkey and Syria, and NATO radar base in Kurecik are not bothering the bilateral relationships between Ankara and Moscow. However, no matter how much important all these topics have been for both parties and being discussed during the short stay of Putin, this is not changing the important reality that Turkey and Russia are signing more agreements on economic, cultural, trade and security areas allowing them to upgrade their cooperation to a further level of intensity.
Need to think beyond Syria
Syrian crisis has alone continued to be a critical issue in the Middle East geopolitics and no one is able to tell what direction it will go and how much deeper it will suck into the Syrian people and other actors like Turkey, Iran, the US, Russia and many more. The Syrian issue alone is powerful enough to suddenly jeopardize the mutual benefits that Turkey and Russia have so far aggregated through their economic, trade and other areas of cooperation. Though short lived, one should recall the war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 in terms of its impact on Turkish-Russian relations. The War strained Turkish-Russian trade and political relations as it brought into the discussions between Ankara and Moscow of US Navy presence in the Black Sea, Montreux Convention on Turkish straits and increased security risks for big energy pipelines crossing Azerbaijani, Georgian and Turkish territories.
Any eventuality pushing Turkey alone or together with a coalition into a large scale military intervention against the Syrian regime can provoke Russia to take the side of Bashar al-Assad much more strongly and openly. Even if not this much, Russia may choice to keep the same line of posture, being one of the most, if not the most, significant outsiders and increase its military aid to the Assad regime aiming at bogging Turkey down into a Syrian quagmire. In the event of this, Russia can, on the one hand, manage not to cut off the trade link with Turkey, on the other it can make Ankara much more dependent on the wishes of Moscow in energy supply and whose pricing, and political maneuvering.
The best option to prolong the mutual benefits that Turkey and Russia have garnered so far by intensifying their relationships is to find ways to work together to help resolve the Syrian crisis. If Turkey and Russia managed to work together in a conflict as complex as the Syrian one, this would increase trust between Ankara and Moscow to an unprecedented level that they had never tasted in their joint history. After achieving this in the immediate crisis of Syria, they can easily expand their cooperation and enjoy more benefits in other parts of the world, especially in the Caucasus and Central Asia, where both Ankara and Russia need more cooperation than competition in the face of common challenges.
Guner Ozkan
USAK Center for Eurasian Studies
Monday, 3 December 2012
Turkish-Russian relations have always followed in a bumpy road, perhaps with only exception of post-World War I. For over 20 years, intensity and directions of the relationships between the two have been largely determined by their own individual state interests and less by the imposition of systemic international order and balance of power in specific areas in various regions. Also, time to time, priorities of the two states have overlapped over a number of areas, and Turkey and Russia have strived for having a developed economy, secure and stable country, region and international order. They are mainly these reasons why today Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting Turkey despite the fact that there is a serious tension over Syria in which Turkey and Russia are representing opposing poles. Therefore, it can be said that, despite difficulties, current relationships between Turkey and Russia are reflecting pragmatism as the agenda of Putin in Ankara is filled more with furthering social, economic, cultural and trade economic and trade links and less with discrepancies on Syria, NATO and other strategic security matters. However, this does not say that current pragmatism between the two states is based on solid foundations that can save their mutually beneficial cooperation from collapse in most bilateral, regional and international crisis. If not being careful, the Syrian issue, as well as some others like ethno-territorial and inter-state disputes in the South Caucasus, is such a case that can quickly change the sunny day of Turkish and Russian relations to a dark one.
Economic projects led to pragmatism
The argument is that existing trade volume and future prospect of bilateral economic relations between Turkey and Russia have allowed both parties to act pragmatically. This seems to be true if one looks into the details of economic cooperation and objectives of AK Party government in Turkey and Putins rule in Russia.
Trade volume of the two reached about 35 billion dollars in 2011 from around 5 billion dollar in 2003 when just after both AK Party and Putin came into power in 2002 and 2000, respectively. Regardless of the current trade disparity which is in favour of Russian with gas export, economic prospect in other areas of construction, tourism, textile, banking and nuclear power plant and many more are encouraging Turkey and Russia to go farther ahead . Both Turkey and Russia want to increase their trade volume up to 100 billion dollars in few years and to accomplish this they have open channels and solid projects on the table.
The main objective of the Turkey-Russia High Level Cooperation Council set up in 2010 was to accelerate bilateral economic cooperation and remove any hurdles obstructing mutual trade as quickly as possible in order not to delay the benefits both parties would get. The joint Council also consists of social and cultural dimensions which are expected to help boost further development of economic relations and remove remains of mutual historical mistrust between the Turks and the Russians.
Level of economic exchange, future prospect and their will of cooperation are all great achievements for Moscow and Ankara. They both cannot now easily turn down the benefits of existing and future possible trade and other relations, especially at a time when AK Party in Turkey and Putin in Russia have held power for over a decade that it is largely attained by their successful policies in the area of economic stability.
Differing views on Syria
Current and future economic benefits that Turkey and Russia have had can be challenged by different views they have had on Syrian conflict.
Despite Turkeys intensive efforts, Russia, alongside China, vetoed the UN Security Council resolutions aimed at pressurizing Syrian regime. For Russia, as thought any settlement in the Syrian conflict could be reached by settling scores of the regime and opposition by splitting as much blood as possible until the moment one side gives up. For the Turkish side, there must be a different way as the Syrian crisis next door to Turkey poses serious security threats to Ankara and created a human rights crisis and humanitarian disaster on such a scale that they are equivalent to what the world witnessed in the Balkans against the Bosnian Muslims in the 1990s.
Evidently, while Russia has seen the Syrian crisis through maintaining and promoting more of its interests, Turkey has had to consider it as more of a moral issue. This does not, of course, suggest that Turkey is not taking into account of its short and long term security and other interests in its Syria policy. After all, despite some risks, a democratic Syria and Middle East in general is much more in tune with the long-term interests of Turkey, but less with those of Russia.
At least, for now, Turkey and Russia appear to have put aside their differences on Syria and prioritized their immediate benefits being generated from their intensifying economic and trade relations. Most vivid examples of this choice is perhaps the carefully weighed behaviour of both Russia and Turkey that they have displayed on the issue of a Syrian passenger plane that was landed by force in Ankara in October on the basis of carrying military equipment. This does not mean that passenger plane issue in particular, and other problems of Syrian crisis, instalment of Patriot systems along the border between Turkey and Syria, and NATO radar base in Kurecik are not bothering the bilateral relationships between Ankara and Moscow. However, no matter how much important all these topics have been for both parties and being discussed during the short stay of Putin, this is not changing the important reality that Turkey and Russia are signing more agreements on economic, cultural, trade and security areas allowing them to upgrade their cooperation to a further level of intensity.
Need to think beyond Syria
Syrian crisis has alone continued to be a critical issue in the Middle East geopolitics and no one is able to tell what direction it will go and how much deeper it will suck into the Syrian people and other actors like Turkey, Iran, the US, Russia and many more. The Syrian issue alone is powerful enough to suddenly jeopardize the mutual benefits that Turkey and Russia have so far aggregated through their economic, trade and other areas of cooperation. Though short lived, one should recall the war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 in terms of its impact on Turkish-Russian relations. The War strained Turkish-Russian trade and political relations as it brought into the discussions between Ankara and Moscow of US Navy presence in the Black Sea, Montreux Convention on Turkish straits and increased security risks for big energy pipelines crossing Azerbaijani, Georgian and Turkish territories.
Any eventuality pushing Turkey alone or together with a coalition into a large scale military intervention against the Syrian regime can provoke Russia to take the side of Bashar al-Assad much more strongly and openly. Even if not this much, Russia may choice to keep the same line of posture, being one of the most, if not the most, significant outsiders and increase its military aid to the Assad regime aiming at bogging Turkey down into a Syrian quagmire. In the event of this, Russia can, on the one hand, manage not to cut off the trade link with Turkey, on the other it can make Ankara much more dependent on the wishes of Moscow in energy supply and whose pricing, and political maneuvering.
The best option to prolong the mutual benefits that Turkey and Russia have garnered so far by intensifying their relationships is to find ways to work together to help resolve the Syrian crisis. If Turkey and Russia managed to work together in a conflict as complex as the Syrian one, this would increase trust between Ankara and Moscow to an unprecedented level that they had never tasted in their joint history. After achieving this in the immediate crisis of Syria, they can easily expand their cooperation and enjoy more benefits in other parts of the world, especially in the Caucasus and Central Asia, where both Ankara and Russia need more cooperation than competition in the face of common challenges.
