Turkish Patriot Deployment Could Derail $4B Missile Deal

[ozi2000]

Turkish Patriot Deployment Could Derail $4B Missile Deal | Defense News | defensenews.com






Turkish Patriot Deployment Could Derail $4B Missile Deal
Dec. 3, 2012 - 08:07AM |
By BURAK EGE BEKDIL and UMIT ENGINSOY | Comments


A Turkish move to deploy NATO's Patriot ground-to-air missiles on its southern border with Syria has antagonized regional rivals Iran and Russia. And defense industry sources say it could obviate the need for the country's $4 billion competition to build its own anti-missile and air defense architecture.
A Turkish move to deploy NATO's Patriot ground-to-air missiles on its southern border with Syria has antagonized regional rivals Iran and Russia. And defense industry sources say it could obviate the need for the country's $4 billion competition to build its own anti-missile and air defense architecture. (File)



ANKARA A Turkish move to deploy NATOs Patriot ground-to-air missiles on its southern border with Syria has antagonized regional rivals Iran and Russia. And defense industry sources say it could obviate the need for the countrys $4 billion competition to build its own anti-missile and air defense architecture.

Turkey officially has asked NATO to deploy Raytheons Patriot missile launchers and Lockheed Martins Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles, saying that neighboring Syrias civil war threatens its security.

Military officials from Germany and the Netherlands, owners of the NATO systems, are conducting site surveys to determine possible deployment locations. NATOs top official, Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has pledged to finish the deal soon.

The request is creating tension in the region. Turkeys former ally, Syria, and its allies Iran and Russia condemned the move.

The relationship between Turkey and Syria has gone from bad to worse since the uprising to oust Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, began almost two years ago. Damascus has long accused Ankara of harboring, financing and arming rebels fighting to oust Assad. Russia agrees with Syria and is warning that the surface-to-air missiles could lead to a regional crisis.

Sergei Lavrov, Russias foreign minister, said: Any buildup of weapons creates threats and risks. Any provocation can cause a very serious armed conflict. We would like to avoid it by all means. We are perfectly aware of Turkeys concern over the security on its border.

Rasmussen sought to reassure Moscow that Turkeys decision is purely to protect its own territory.

The Turkish government stressed that the deployment will be defensive only, and that it will in no way support a no-fly zone or any offensive operation, he said. The security of the alliance is indivisible. NATO is fully committed to deterring against any threats and defending Turkeys territorial integrity.

Analysts agree.

Turkey has its own reasons to have the systems on its soil. These reasons are political, security-related and also financial, said Ceyhun Erguven, an analyst based here. It is normal that a member country requests logistical assistance from NATO because it feels threatened.

The move could nullify Turkeys own program to build long-range anti-missile and air defense systems on its soil, industry sources said.

For the estimated $4 billion contract, the pan-European company Eurosam, maker of the Surface-to-Air Missile Platform/Terrain Aster 30 system, is competing with a Raytheon-Lockheed partnership marketing Patriots; Russias Rosoboronexport, marketing the S-300 system; and China Precision Machinery Export-Import Corp., offering its HQ-9.

Turkeys top decision-making body on defense, the Defense Industry Executive Committee, had its most recent meeting in July and said that talks would continue with four key foreign suppliers. The committees next meeting is scheduled for late December or early January.

Turkey has no long-range air defense systems. All of the candidate systems, in theory, are capable of hitting an incoming aircraft or missile.

Many Western officials and experts say the Russian and Chinese systems in the Turkish competition are not compatible with NATO systems. The fear is that either countrys potential victory could inadvertently provide it with access to classified NATO information, and as a result, may compromise NATOs procedures.

Despite this criticism, Turkey so far has resisted dropping the Chinese and Russian options.

Analysts say the deployment of NATO assets on Turkish soil may add to doubts that Turkey needs to independently build an air defense system and spend a huge amount of money.

The arrival of the Patriot systems, if endorsed by NATO, would already meet Turkeys requirement of a solid air defense system, Erguven said. This may even lead to the cancellation of Turkeys own contract for a similar system.

A procurement official familiar with the program said the matter would be thoroughly discussed, with a final decision made at the next meeting of the Defense Industry Executive Committee.

Industry sources say even if Turkey proceeds with its national air defense system contract, procurement officials might feel obliged to shortlist the U.S. and European contenders and drop the Russians and Chinese.

Turkey and Russia are becoming increasingly hostile as each sides with warring camps in the Syrian crisis, one senior industry source said. This minimizes Rosoboronexports chances in the contract.

China also quietly allies with Russia over the Syria war, and its solution for Turkish air defenses is an almost replica of the Russian system. That may oust the Chinese bid from the race, too.

 

[Saithan]

Several options on the table.

The deployment of NATO PAC-3 means we don't need to rush with getting our own system, but can spend more time developing our own system. Also perhaps the escalation of the tension will make the tenders lower the price as they'll want to ensure a sale while it's necessary.

Maybe other incentives such as more knowhow transfer along with the sale could help make it go smooth.

Perhaps we can use this opportunity to run "wargames" test and see how it'll work and whether the PAC-3 is enough.

in short term, we don't have to rush the acquisition of our own Surface to Air missile defense.