Turkish Economy - News & Updates

[OguzSenturk]

6.9x makes about 5% of 139.6x, not 100x

And that is what it is, check the table to understand easier

 

[SouI]

And that is what it is, check the table to understand easier

Seems like what I had said (That you objected) was correct. The economy grew peer to peer based on the first quarters of 2016 and 2017. That is it.

That 2009=100 stands for nothing other than the price standing point, which really is not important as any other year for price reference would show the same growth rates.

It just gives a general understanding on how price develops from one referential year and that's it.

 

[OguzSenturk]

The economy grew peer to peer based on the first quarters of 2016 and 2017.

Yes

That is it.

No

That 2009=100 stands for nothing

And no

It is simple math, how can you say that the constant figure stands for nothing even after you wrote that the percentage change between 2016 and 2017 according to 2009 values Really? Yes it changes really small amount of value, but it still changes. I don't know how much math do you need to understand, it is very simple and i already made it's math in previous page.

 

[SouI]

that the percentage change between 2016 and 2017 according to 2009 values

Because that is not the case.

Yes it changes really small amount of value, but it still changes.

No it doesn't.

I don't know how much math do you need to understand, it is very simple and i already made it's math in previous page.

I don't desire to argue this indeed very simple math with you, sorry.

 

[OguzSenturk]

Ministry of Finance: Budget surplus is ₺6.4billion in May. Budget deficit between January-May is ₺11.5billion.

 

[OguzSenturk]

http://www.bloomberght.com/haberler/haber/2025753-borsa-gunu-tarihi-zirvesinden-tamamladi

 

[OguzSenturk]

http://www.haberturk.com/ekonomi/is-yasam/haber/1548516-antalya-da-rus-turist-rekoru-kirildi

Total tourist number visited Antalya in June jumped more than %100 relative to 2016 June numbers and reached 1.2 million tourist.

Russian tourist numbers increased %4400 in Antalya in first 6 months of 2017.

 

[Deliorman]

Turkish exports registered a 12.5 percent increase in May on a year-on-year basis and recorded a value of $13.6 billion while imports increased 21.7 percent and stood at $20.9 billion, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on Friday.

Turkey's foreign trade deficit rose 43.4 percent in May against the same month in 2016, TurkStat reported on Friday.

The monthly deficit was $7.3 billion as imports increased by 21.7 percent year-on-year to $20.9 billion while exports went up 12.5 percent to $13.6 billion.

In the first five months, exports rose 9.5 percent to $64.3 billion whereas imports rose 11.2 percent to $89.1 billion compared to the same period last year, TurkStat reported.

The deficit during from January to May was $24.8 billion, a 15.7 percent increase from the same period in 2016.

Exports to the European Union increased 4.4 percent to $6.13 billion in May, up from $5.8 billion in May 2016.

Germany was Turkey's largest export market with $1.24 billion in May, followed by the United Arab Emirates with $1.04 billion, the U.S. with $858 million and Iraq with $831 million.

Most imports came from China ($1.93 billion), followed by Germany ($1.82 billion), Russia ($1.45 billion) and the U.S. ($1.16 billion).

TL exports up 113 pct

Exports in Turkish lira increased 113 percent in the first five months of this year compared to the same period of 2016, rising from $2.9 billion to $6.1 billion.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's calls to support the lira last year helped increase its usage in exports. The use of lira in exports has increased more than twofold since January compared to the same period of the previous year.

According to the information compiled by TurkStat, exports in the first five months of this year stood at $64.3 billion and imports at $89.1 billion. TL usage increased by 113.41 percent in exports compared to the same period of the previous year, climbing from $2.9 billion to $6.1 billion.

The lira's share in total exports, which stood at 4.9 percent from January to May last year, reached 9.54 percent in the same period of 2017.

Lira usage increases in imports

In the first five months of this year, lira usage in imports increased 24.31 percent compared to the same period of 2016, up from $5.5 billion to $6.9 billion.

In the first five months of the previous year, $5.5 billion worth of imports, which corresponded to 6.88 percent of total of $80.2 billion worth of imports, was realized in lira, while $6.85 billion worth of imports, amounting to 7.69 percent of the total amount of imports, was done in lira in the same period of 2017.

In the said period, the lira's share in total foreign trade increased from 6.04 percent to 8.46 percent.

Energy imports climb in May

Turkey's energy imports increased by 38.4 percent in May compared to the same month last year, reaching $2.9 billion.

According to the data released by TurkStat, Turkey's total imports in May this year increased by 21.7 percent compared to the same month last year, standing at $20.9 billion.

Of this figure, $2.9 billion was composed of "mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes" which are summarized as energy imports.

In May, crude oil imports increased by 22.8 percent compared to the same month last year, rising from a total of 2 million tons to 2.6 million.

https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/...-12-pct-in-may-tl-trade-doubled-since-january

A monthly (!) trade deficit of 7,3 billion.

 

[-SINAN-]

Automotive imports fall as Turks lean toward domestic production

Laughable headline...

2016 first half sales/ Total: 401,158 - Imported 257,151 - Locally Produced 144,007
2017 first half sales/ Total: 305,924 - Imported 210,130 - Locally Produced 95,794

Sales in 2017 decreased by almost a quarter, 100.000 cars..and that's huge. Turkish lira lost huge value against Euro and Dollar and prices increased so much.

For instance, i was thinking of a buying new car which was priced 90.000 TL a few moths ago. Now, that car's price rose up 125.000 TL

People can not afford to buy new cars anymore like they used to.

P.S: I checked again, that car's price rose up to 136.000 TL. Euro rate is fixed to 3.54 TL at the dealer. When it will rose up to 4 TL which is the actual amount today. It's price will be 153.000 TL.
P.S 2: Euro rose up to 4.15 today....i'm stopping calculations.

 

[Deliorman]

I love it how all the pro-AKP medias can turn everything bad into something positive and all that only to show how booming Turkish economy is and how good Turks live nowadays... and all that with prices increasing every week and Turkish lira going down again.

It is being traded for 3,63 Liras for 1 USD and 4,14 for 1 EUR right now.

 

[Inspector Spacetime]

I love it how all the pro-AKP medias can turn everything bad into something positive and all that only to show how booming Turkish economy is and how good Turks live nowadays... and all that with prices increasing every week and Turkish lira going down again.

It is being traded for 3,63 Liras for 1 USD and 4,14 for 1 EUR right now.

That's what I hate about Turkish media. Pro and Anti-government media are actually hurting Turkey in a big way. Spinning it to the positive/negative isn't even the worst part, the worst part is that they demonize the opposing side. And it's showing in posts on this forum as well. I have read countless times from people here and how they consider the other side to be stupid and dumb. And I see these comments echo (same comments different people) through all sorts of internet comment sections and forums. That's why it is safe to assume that these people are influenced by the same media outlets and are therefore echoing the same hateful remarks (depending on the 'side' they are on).

Media outlets like Sozcu (anti), Cumhuriyet (anti), Kanal A (pro), Akit tv (pro) and there are countless more, should either all be closed/banned or they need a severe policy change. They need to get their act together, because all they are doing is provoking people against each other.

 

[LordTyrannus]

Economy is overrated. Russia has bad economy also, but we become self sufficiant forcefully through embargoes of western nations.

A country only needs two things for world war three.

1. Weapons and bunkers
2. Food and supplies, recourses.

Russia has it all. We will survive. All Idiots will perish.

 

[Bismarck]

Economy is overrated. Russia has bad economy also, but we become self sufficiant forcefully through embargoes of western nations.

A country only needs two things for world war three.

1. Weapons and bunkers
2. Food and supplies, recourses.

Russia has it all. We will survive. All Idiots will perish.

A good advice. Go to that bunker as soon as possible and don't leave it until it's over.

 

[SouI]

Why Erdogan Is Flooding Turkey’s Economy With Credit
Turkey is rushing $50 billion of loans to almost 300,000 companies.
By
Asli Kandemir
June 22, 2017, 5:00 AM GMT+3

Tourists pose for photographs in Istanbul


PHOTOGRAPHER: KEREM UZEL/BLOOMBERG

In Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s hunt for domestic enemies, even the invisible hand of the marketplace is getting cuffed.


With elections just over two years away and his approval ratings dipping below 50 percent, Erdogan isn’t leaving his political fate to the vagaries of the free market. Instead, he’s risking his country’s future stability by flooding the economy with credit to engineer short-term growth, analysts say.


"Turkish economic policy is all about politics—and politics is all about Erdogan and his AKP party winning decisively in 2019,” said Nigel Rendell of Medley Global Advisors in London. “Nothing else matters.”


Since last year’s foiled coup, which triggered emergency rule, Turkey has expanded state guarantees to rush about $50 billion of lira loans to almost 300,000 businesses with little transparency over how the money is spent. The government has also pooled about $200 billion of assets into a wealth fund. That’s so it can borrow against its stakes in companies like Turkish Airlines and Turk Telekom to build popular big-ticket infrastructure that will further swell a budget deficit that’s already projected to be the highest since 2010.


Officials have even proposed letting banks securitize their total loan book of $515 billion to finance more lira lending, though they’ve already dispersed 50 percent more than all deposits in the national currency, the most of any major economy. While a 22 percent surge in credit since the failed putsch is helping fuel 5 percent headline growth, which Erdogan has trumpeted as a vindication of his policies, it’s also threatening to prolong double-digit inflation.

The immediate downside of the credit boom has been an increase in the price of money. To attract savings from a population that’s more reluctant than most to park cash, lenders have raised deposit rates to as high as 15 percent, which means they have to charge even more for lending to be profitable.

Dangerous Buildup
Melis Metiner of HSBC Holdings Plc says Erdogan and his allies are trying to bypass the structural, “supply-side constraints” of the economy, including low savings rates, poor education results and skill shortages—all while shielding inefficient industries with some of the most protectionist policies in emerging markets. This neglect, together with the debt buildup, risks making Turkey even more vulnerable to external shocks after the elections, she said.

“The government’s priority appears to be to keep domestic activity as strong as possible for as long as possible by leveraging the public- and banking-sector balance sheets,” the London-based economist said in a research note.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
PHOTOGRAPHER: JASPER JUINEN/BLOOMBERG
Finance Minister Naci Agbal said in an interview in March that most of the government’s recent measures related to taxes and credit are one-time in nature and their impact on the budget will disappear by 2020.

“As long as the budget gap is at manageable and controllable levels, a certain amount of increase will not hurt the perception of fiscal discipline,” he said.

The Credit Guarantee Fund, which the government created in 1991 but drastically expanded last November, lets commercial banks share some of their lending risks with the treasury, which covers 7 percent of any losses—enough for lenders to approve many clients with borderline creditworthiness.

Metiner and other economists have criticized the fund for creating a “debt spiral,” adding another element of fragility to the economy. They argue that while it allows companies to restructure debt and receive fresh loans with maturities of up to 10 years, it does nothing to improve credit quality and encourages excessive borrowing that can require even more loans to service.

‘Undeniable Relief’
Business owners like Alper Akmaner, who makes and distributes the Cire Aseptine brand of Swiss beauty products, say they would’ve had difficulties surviving, let alone expanding, without the guarantee program.

The Anthemis Cosmetics chairman, like legions of other entrepreneurs, imports raw materials for dollars and was thus ravaged by the lira’s 21 percent plunge last year. Turkey is particularly sensitive to U.S. currency swings because its current account deficit is set to be the biggest relative to output of the 20 largest economies this year and its imports are priced mostly in greenbacks.

“When I started my company, banks avoided me,” Akmaner said in an interview in Istanbul, where he employs 14 people. “Now they’re calling me.”

Akmaner, who borrowed 750,000 liras ($213,000) from two different banks under the mechanism, said the “huge cash injection” has provided “undeniable relief” for thousands of firms. It should be extended to achieve sustainable results, “otherwise, in terms of growth, it’ll be a one-off and then we’ll be back where we started,” he said.

Deputy Prime Minister Nurettin Canikli said so far the fund has backed about 180 billion liras of credit out of a maximum of 250 billion liras, after which the program will be wound down. That’s the main reason officials are considering allowing banks to bundle their loans and market them to investors, said Trieu Pham, a credit analyst at MUFG Securities in London.

“That could reduce the upward pressure on deposit rates and free up some breathing room for further loan growth,” Pham said.

No Braking
For Erdogan, who’s presided over the firing and jailing of civil servants by the tens of thousands since a rogue army faction tried to topple him, prolonging the credit spree is a double-edge sword. He’s seeking a popular mandate for greater powers after pushing through a disputed referendum in April on moving from a parliamentary system to an executive presidency. Elections for both offices are scheduled for November 2019, but he can call either one early, a decision that may depend on the health of the economy.

“The risk is to face an over-leveraged economy right after elections,” said Inan Demir, Nomura International Plc’s London-based economist. “An external financing shock could lead to accelerating inflation, higher unemployment and stagnant activity right after the transition to the executive presidency."

Even supporters of the debt and restructuring frenzy who’ve benefited from the government’s largesse are worried it may have gone too far.

“This isn’t sustainable,” said Mehmet Erdogan, chairman of Sezon Pirinc, an agriculture producer based in Istanbul that filed for bankruptcy protection two years ago. “We can’t get anywhere by borrowing and restructuring,” said Erdogan, who isn’t related to the president.

Maybe not, but don’t expect the Turkish leader to stop trying, according to Atilla Yesilada, an adviser to GlobalSource Partners, a consultancy in Istanbul.

“Voters are extremely uncomfortable with the purges and clampdowns,” Yesilada said. “Erdogan can only hold the system together by pumping in enough money to keep growth high, so he’s not going to hit the brakes.”

—With assistance from Constantine Courcoulas.

 

[Bismarck]

I saw a documentary about Turkish youth unemployed. Over 20% youth-unemployment could turkey back into a new crisis. AKP should focus on economy again and keep going on reforms which they urgently need. This, the exchange rate (dollar and Euro) and Turkeys huge trade-deficit, especially against China, which is incredible, should be Turkeys government main problems.