Turkish Economy - News & Updates

[Inspector Spacetime]

Inflation is sky-high, interest rates are sky high, Turkish lira is on the floor.

No problem 90% of the people don't even know anything about economics. Build a bridge and we are a superpower.

Why is the inflation sky-high? And what is the government planning on doing about it? What do the opposition party's suggest? And which one of these is in your opinion the best roadmap?

Why are the interest rates so high? What are the advantages and disadvantages? And what is the government planning on doing about it? What do the opposition party's suggest? And which one of these is in your opinion the best strategy to follow?

Why is the Turkish lira like this? How does it compare to similar developing countries like Turkey? And what kind of steps has the government taken or is planning to take to tackle this problem? And how do the opposition party's think about that and what do they suggest? And which one these steps is in your opinion the best roadmap?

 

[SouI]

Why is the inflation sky-high? And what is the government planning on doing about it? What do the opposition party's suggest? And which one of these is in your opinion the best roadmap?

Why are the interest rates so high? What are the advantages and disadvantages? And what is the government planning on doing about it? What do the opposition party's suggest? And which one of these is in your opinion the best strategy to follow?

Why is the Turkish lira like this? How does it compare to similar developing countries like Turkey? And what kind of steps has the government taken or is planning to take to tackle this problem? And how do the opposition party's think about that and what do they suggest? And which one these steps is in your opinion the best roadmap?

High inflation is necessary when unemployment rate is high. High interest rates are necessary when inflation is high (unlike what Erdogan suggests which is pretty much the opposite).

We are lucky that developed nations are easing their monetary policies.

 

[Baybars Han]

Why is the inflation sky-high? And what is the government planning on doing about it? What do the opposition party's suggest? And which one of these is in your opinion the best roadmap?

Why are the interest rates so high? What are the advantages and disadvantages? And what is the government planning on doing about it? What do the opposition party's suggest? And which one of these is in your opinion the best strategy to follow?

Why is the Turkish lira like this? How does it compare to similar developing countries like Turkey? And what kind of steps has the government taken or is planning to take to tackle this problem? And how do the opposition party's think about that and what do they suggest? And which one these steps is in your opinion the best roadmap?

When the president pressures the central bank which is supposed to be independent this happens.

erdo says drop interest rates, while the bloody currency is dropping which is laughable. Turkish lira is dropping alot more than similar countries, infact its probably one of the worst currencies against the dollar.

First and foremost, leave the central bank to take its own decisions. The solutions to the rest of the problems are making deep reforms in every sector.

 

[flamer84]

Economy grows 5% compared to 2014s numbers. Great fucking news..

2014 or year on year as in 2016?

 

[Baybars Han]

At the basic everyone should watch this and see the iq of the people ruling the country and their supporters.

Ak ekonomist below. Be careful after watching this your iq might drop just from watching this.

 

[what]

2014 or year on year as in 2016?

Sorry, they are not doing YOY, but take 2009 (when we were in the middle of a crisis) when the economy retracted worldwide during the financial crisis as a base year. So compared to that we had 5% growth in the first quarter.

 

[Dai Toruko]

World Bank raises economic growth forecast for Turkey


Turkey’s economy is now expected to expand 3.5 percent in 2017, up from an estimate of three percent in January.

http://www.trtworld.com/business/world-bank-raises-economic-growth-forecast-for-turkey-372548

 

[Inspector Spacetime]

When the president pressures the central bank which is supposed to be independent this happens.

erdo says drop interest rates, while the bloody currency is dropping which is laughable. Turkish lira is dropping alot more than similar countries, infact its probably one of the worst currencies against the dollar.

First and foremost, leave the central bank to take its own decisions. The solutions to the rest of the problems are making deep reforms in every sector.

Here is my understanding from the recent weeks I've been watching Bloomberg. From what I understood, inflation is mostly due to consumables like food. Especially meat products had the worst inflation. Demand for meat consumption in Turkey doubled in the recent years (since 2012 if I remember correctly) and the production wasn't able to keep up with the high demand. The government has got various programs to tackle this issue, like giving animals to (young) farmers so they can multiply them.

When it comes to currency, the TL was one of the worst but it's been gaining traction in the recent months compared to currencies of developing countries. The more I keep watch on macro-economic trends, the more I see how intertwined the faiths of the economies of all developing countries are. Especially Mexico, Brazil and Turkey, because these countries are considered to have high political risk.

For instance, the Turkish lira spiked up to about than 3.60 last week, currently it's sitting on 3.52 as of right now (while writing this message). The reason for this spike wasn't because of anything that happened in Turkey, but it was due to the Brazilian president being accused of corruption. Turkey had nothing to do with this, but it still paid the price.

In order to avoid situations like this Turkey must shake off this so called political risk. And judging from the traction Turkey seems to have gained, it is slowly growing out of this sentiment. But this isn't easy, it's gaining momentum, but the internal problems with FETO and current state of alert are still cause for political risk. On top of that you got external political risks like Iraq and Syria and recently Qatar all are working against Turkey's favor on this issue.

Last week, there was this news all over Bloomberg about some famous economic analyst claiming that TL is going to reach 3.10 against the dollar by years end, but I wasn't able to find the source so I can't link it here. But these predictions are speculations, I hope this is true but not sure if that is correct of me. Because what needs to happen with TL is to keep it horizontal, it shouldn't lose or gain too much value against the dollar/euro etc. it needs to stay consistent.

 

[AUz]

2014 or year on year as in 2016?

Turkey's is economy grew nearly 5% in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the first quarter of 2016.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tu...asts.aspx?pageID=238&nID=114212&NewsCatID=344

Read the full article

 

[SouI]

Sorry, they are not doing YOY, but take 2009 (when we were in the middle of a crisis) when the economy retracted worldwide during the financial crisis as a base year. So compared to that we had 5% growth in the first quarter.

"2017 yılının birinci çeyreğinde bir önceki yılın aynı çeyreğine göre %5 arttı."

 

[OguzSenturk]

"2017 yılının birinci çeyreğinde bir önceki yılın aynı çeyreğine göre %5 arttı."

TÜİK: "Gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ilk tahmini; zincirlenmiş hacim endeksi olarak (2009=100), 2017 yılının birinci çeyreğinde bir önceki yılın aynı çeyreğine göre %5 arttı."

He is right what he said, but it doesn't exactly change the figures as he claimed.

TÜİK takes 2009 values as constant . It is not like we had 100X economy and now we has 105X economy.

It is like if we had 100X economy in 2009 q1, and 139.6X economy in 2016 q1, now we have 146.5X economy in 2017 q1.

If we don't take 2009 q1 as constant, but instead 2016 q1 as a constant to measure increase rate, we could have;

2016 q1 : 100x economy
2017 q1 : 104.942x economy

So if we take 2016 as a constant year, growth rate would have been %4.94 instead of %5. Not a big deal.

 

[SouI]

"It is like if we had 100X economy in 2009 q1, and 139.6X economy in 2016 q1, now we have 146.5X economy in 2017 q1."

I couldn't understand what to do with 100x value of 2009 when the difference of your figures make 6.9x and not 5x.

6.9x makes about 5% of 139.6x, not 100x. Which means economy has grown 5% according to the GDP of 2016 and not 2009. Otherwise 2017 figure would be 144.6x [139.6x + 5x (5% of 100x of 2009)]

But I am sure it makes sense.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Anyhow, there are undoubtedly signs of recovery in the Turkish economy. More tourists, more exports, higher industrial output but then again we have high inflation rates and a stagnating unemployment rate.

All in all, this is a good base for a major economic recovery. Erdogan promised several times publicly that after a successful referendum everything will change for better in terms of income, production, jobs creation and wealth.

Let's see whether he'll repeat his unbelievable good performance from 2002 to 2007.
If he fails, to hell with him; if not, yasa sultanim.

 

[AUz]

Anyhow, there are undoubtedly signs of recovery in the Turkish economy. More tourists, more exports, higher industrial output but then again we have high inflation rates and a stagnating unemployment rate.

All in all, this is a good base for a major economic recovery. Erdogan promised several times publicly that after a successful referendum everything will change for better in terms of income, production, jobs creation and wealth.

Let's see whether he'll repeat his unbelievable good performance from 2002 to 2007.
If he fails, to hell with him; if not, yasa sultanim.

A lot of the major projects are going to be coming online in next year or two. Take the world's largest Istanbul airport as a starter. It alone has capacity to generation tens of billions of dollars for Turkish economy.

Then you have compeletion of knowledge cities, fruitation of defence deals, and many other construction projects.

If everything stays on track with no significant instability--Erdogan knows that Turkey would grow around 4%-5% very easily.

 

[kartal1]

What is this arap erdo slave saying?

@cabatli_53 Please. We are going to see another wave of bullsht soon.