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Turkish Economy - News & Updates

What is the driving force behind Turkish Economic problem?

  • The on going Trump attack on Turkish Economy

    Votes: 29 19.9%
  • Jewish Agenda to weaken adjacent countries to Israel

    Votes: 36 24.7%
  • Internal Turkish economic problems

    Votes: 50 34.2%
  • Falling Exports for Turkey

    Votes: 5 3.4%
  • Loss of Tourism income for Turkey

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • External Loans or Debt impacting Economy

    Votes: 25 17.1%

  • Total voters
    146
Sorry, but countries who're able to export more than they import, isn't solely reliant on raw material imports. We have plenty of raw material, but we're not able to proces everything to high grade end products, thus we end up exporting raw or semi products. Thanks to Azerbaijan we now have a chemical processing plant (I think it was a 5 billion usd investment). I think we're still lacking, and to improve exports, we need to be better at promoting, and selling the goods made in Turkey.
 
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That is inaccurate. I mean of course our exporters too need to import the resources to make out of them what they export abroad. But imports going down has no relation to that.

The so called industrial "ara mal" imports having gone down is not due to exporters not being able to afford to buy them, in fact our exporters are now importing more ara mal! The industrial ara mal imports have gone down due to the companies "that sell their products in this country".

Their revenues are going down, markets shrinking so of course they will not be able to afford tı import just as much ara mal for their industrial products. But this case is irrelevant to the exports.

Exporters are importing more ara mal than ever before! Of course exports will fall down a little bit from now on due to the rise in the minimum wage, so ara mal imports by exporters will go down too.

But this has nothing to do with the trend of imports having gone down a lot recently. That has no impact on exporters' capability to import ara mals from abroad.
First of all I emphasized particularly the drop of investments on machinery. However I would like you to share statistics of raw material imports.İt is a cruel fact , Our producers use one of the most expensive credit due to high interest rates .
Therefor they started running production efficiently and spending own raw material stoks.
Finally, investments on machinery seem to being delayed.

As an entrepreneur who trades copper power cables I say , Turkish cable factories must import copper which costs expensive and has international exchange. With this high interest rates they can't afford purchase moreover they have to rise their prices.
On the other hand their clean profits are around 3-5% . And costs of labour in price aren't high in this sector.
 
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Screenshot_20190101-231320.jpg

The AKP administration penciled in a very modest 2.3% real GDP growth for 2019, but there is little conviction among supra-nationals that even this target will be reached. After IMF and OECD, Turkey’s most enthusiastic development lender, EBRD, too shaved off its 2019 forecast, to 1%.



IMF: No growth in 2019



The International Monetary Fund said Turkey should implement a swathe of measures to right its economy and finance industry as it slashed the nation’s growth forecast to 0.4 percent for next year.



“The challenges that Turkey faces will require a comprehensive policy package comprising monetary, fiscal, quasi-fiscal, and financial sector policies,” the Washington-based IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday.



The fund highlighted problems in monetary policy, which it said should be “tightened to re-anchor expectations”. The country’s central bank has reacted belatedly to faster inflation, it said.



Turkey’s economic downturn – its growth forecast for next year was cut from 4 percent– was a key determinant for a broader downgrade of growth expectations for emerging markets, the IMF said.





OECD: Yes, we concur





The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised downwards it forecast for Turkey’s real GDP growth in 2019 from 5 percent to 0.5 percent amid the recent pressures on the Turkish lira, the organization’s interim economic outlook.



Turkey’s growth prospects in 2018 have also weakened – from 5.1 to 3.2 percent, according to the document.



According to the outlook, the slowdown in trade growth and the widespread political uncertainty are destabilizing factors for the global economy.



“Trade growth has stalled, restrictions are having marked sectoral effects and the level of uncertainty on trade stances remains high. It is urgent for countries to end the slide towards further protectionism, reinforce the global rules‑based international trade system and boost international dialogue, which will provide business with the confidence to invest… With tighter financial conditions creating stress on a number of emerging economies, especially Turkey and Argentina, a strong and stable policy framework will be key to avoid further turbulence,” OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said.





EBRD: Turkey depresses the whole neighborhood



Average growth in the EBRD regions is expected to moderate from 3.8 per cent in 2017 to 3.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.6 per cent in 2019 (see Chart 1 and Table 1). The new projections represent a downward revision compared with the May 2018 forecast (of 0.1 percentage points in 2018 and 0.6 percentage points in 2019), primarily on account of slower expected growth in Turkey, where a sharp deceleration in the second half of the year is expected to bring the 2018 growth down to 3.6 per cent, as the weaker lira and interest rate hikes negatively impact private consumption and investment. On the other hand, the weaker lira is expected to provide a boost to net exports and thus GDP growth. For the first time in three years a monthly surplus was recorded on the Turkish current account in August 2018, compared with a deficit of 6.5 per cent of GDP in the twelve months to June 2018. Growth of around 1 per cent is expected in 2019



The Bank’s report added:



Economic rebalancing forced by the weak lira should help reduce large external imbalances, which arose as consumption-driven growth resulted in a rapid growth in imports, driving the current account deficit to 6.5 per cent of GDP by Q2 2018. Lately, the weak lira has led to a significant improvement in the external trade position, in turn reducing the current account deficit. However, the short term external financing requirement remains high, in excess of 25 per cent of GDP.



The banking system, often considered a key anchor of the economy, is under growing stress. The depreciation of the lira has hit banks’ capital, and their asset quality may be impacted by both their exposure to corporates with large FX liabilities, and the effect of increased interest rates on corporate and household balance sheets, particularly as the economy slows. The Banking Regulatory and Supervisory Authority has introduced several measures to address the issues faced by banks, but there are concerns about the impact of these measures on balance sheet transparency, and confidence in the system.

The lira’s depreciation and interest rate hikes will continue to impact consumption and investment in the short term, although rebalancing should see net exports make an increasing contribution to growth. A sharp slow-down in the second half of the year is expected to bring annual growth in 2018 down to around 3.6 per cent, with a growth rate of around 1.0 per cent expected in 2019. The key risk to the outlook is uncertainty regarding the banking sector but other risks include the direction of economic policy and further depreciation of the lira.
http://www.paraanaliz.com/intelligence/growth-expectations-2019-vanish-rapidly/
 
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He couldn't resist as his surname. Poor academic being frightened ,has just denied his words. Silivri is freezing in this time of year:)
View attachment 530245

How could GDP nosedive on the earth if currency was steady?
Hey IMF who the hell you are? How could dare?

According to IMF Turkish GDP in 2019 7600usd .
[QUOTE = "SouI, post: 11068869, member: 165986"] Нет, очевидно, это 631,2 млрд долларов, а 7600 долларов США - это ВВП на душу населения. Таким образом, мы говорим о более чем 25% падении нашего ВВП за 2 года.

Плоды социализма !! [/ QUOTE]
This is very funny. Find out what GDP is in the first place. Any country will plunge into the Stone Age if GDP falls by 25 percent. Estimate of GDP is not correct. Estimate GDP in a foreign currency stupidity. The IMF will annually make sure that Turkey’s GDP grows, but does it eventually drop by 25 percent?
To evaluate or calculate GDP doesn't appear to be esoteric or heroic deed.

It's very possible for wired hands. That's why economy science exists.
 
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[QUOTE = "SouI, post: 11068869, member: 165986"] Нет, очевидно, это 631,2 млрд долларов, а 7600 долларов США - это ВВП на душу населения. Таким образом, мы говорим о более чем 25% падении нашего ВВП за 2 года.

Плоды социализма !! [/ QUOTE]
This is very funny. Find out what GDP is in the first place. Any country will plunge into the Stone Age if GDP falls by 25 percent. Estimate of GDP is not correct. Estimate GDP in a foreign currency stupidity. The IMF will annually make sure that Turkey’s GDP grows, but does it eventually drop by 25 percent?
When you say GDP then it is in nominal value. So yes, Turkish GDP is estimated to have fallen by 25% at the end of this year compared to 2017.

If only when you say GDP PPP (=Gross Domestic Product "Purchasing Power Parity"), only THEN it means what you incorrectly implied GDP to stand for.

I guess you are the one here that needs some basic education on simple macro-economic terms.
 
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Turkey's net external debt stock stands at $286 billion
ANKARA
5c2b75d20f254405e453fcb7.jpg

The Treasury and Finance Ministry of Turkey has announced that the country’s net external debt stock totaled $286.2 billion as of the end of September this year.

The country’s net external debt stock to its gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was 34.4 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2018, the ministry’s data showed on Dec. 31.

Turkey’s gross external debt stock amounted to $448.4 billion in the same period, indicating a debt/GDP ratio of 53.8 percent, according to the official figures.

The private sector’s share in the country’s gross external debt stock was 68.2 percent ($305.9 billion), while some $215.9 billion of this amount consisted of long-term debts - with a maturity of more than one year.

As of September, Turkish public sector’s share was 30.6 percent in the country’s total foreign debt - around $21.4 billion to be paid back in the short-term and some $115.7 billion in the long-term.

Some 58.5 percent of the total gross external debt was in the U.S. dollar, 32.3 percent was in euro, and 5.9 percent in Turkish lira.

The net external debt stock was calculated as the gross domestic debt excluding the banking sector’s debt plus the banking and the monetary sectors’ net foreign assets.

The banking sector’s (lenders and the central bank) external debt stock was $176.99 billion as of September.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-net-external-debt-stock-stands-at-286-billion-140179
 
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Turkey's net external debt stock stands at $286 billion
ANKARA
5c2b75d20f254405e453fcb7.jpg

The Treasury and Finance Ministry of Turkey has announced that the country’s net external debt stock totaled $286.2 billion as of the end of September this year.

The country’s net external debt stock to its gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was 34.4 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2018, the ministry’s data showed on Dec. 31.

Turkey’s gross external debt stock amounted to $448.4 billion in the same period, indicating a debt/GDP ratio of 53.8 percent, according to the official figures.

The private sector’s share in the country’s gross external debt stock was 68.2 percent ($305.9 billion), while some $215.9 billion of this amount consisted of long-term debts - with a maturity of more than one year.

As of September, Turkish public sector’s share was 30.6 percent in the country’s total foreign debt - around $21.4 billion to be paid back in the short-term and some $115.7 billion in the long-term.

Some 58.5 percent of the total gross external debt was in the U.S. dollar, 32.3 percent was in euro, and 5.9 percent in Turkish lira.

The net external debt stock was calculated as the gross domestic debt excluding the banking sector’s debt plus the banking and the monetary sectors’ net foreign assets.

The banking sector’s (lenders and the central bank) external debt stock was $176.99 billion as of September.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-net-external-debt-stock-stands-at-286-billion-140179
Furthermore FED has increased interest rates and narrowed dollar suply. Also FED means to increase interest rates in 2019:(
Thus more expensive credits and yet lack of dollars.

İn 2019 European central bank is also joining to rise interest rates, this year seems to be scorching for every nation.
 
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[QUOTE = "SouI, post: 11069624, member: 165986"] Когда вы говорите, ВВП, то это в номинальной стоимости. Так что да, ВВП Турции, по оценкам, упал на 25% в конце этого года по сравнению с 2017 годом.

Если только когда вы говорите, что ППС ВВП (= Валовой внутренний продукт "Паритет покупательной способности"), только ТОГДА это означает, что вы неверно подразумевали ВВП для обозначения.

Полагаю, вам здесь нужно базовое образование на простых макроэкономических условиях. [/ QUOTE]
You are not right. Because there is a difference between GDP and assessment of GDP. GDP is quantity of the turned-out products in value terms. You say what nominal GDP dropped by 25 percent. Nominal GDP fell in dollars, and in Indian rupees nominal GDP of Turkey perhaps grew. Now you feel a difference? And yes, you do not speak about my education. To you to it it is far.

You are not right. Because there is a difference between GDP and assessment of GDP. GDP is quantity of the turned-out products in value terms. You say what nominal GDP dropped by 25 percent. Nominal GDP fell in dollars, and in Indian rupees nominal GDP of Turkey perhaps grew. Now you feel a difference? And yes, you do not speak about my education. To you to it it is far.
[/QUOTE]


Turkish lira last year lost value against every other currency in the world- against the currency of war torn Syria included so it says enough.

This year will be an even worse one as the country is already in recession, companies are going bankrupt, people are kicked out of work and private debts should be repayed.

Years of spending money from credits on building bad quality apartments and propaganda projects + half of people using credit cards leads to a balloon that now popped.
 
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Özyıldız *

Turkey's external debt stock, last September was 448.5 billion dollars.

It decreased by $ 6.6 billion compared to June. It's nice to see the stock drop in nominal size. This is the result of the economic developments after July.

But the most healthy measure of a debt stock is its ratio to income.

Real debt.

What does this mean?

If the debt is a small part of the total revenue, there is no problem in repayment. For example, a debt of 1,200 pounds corresponds to 60 per cent of the income of a minimum wage, while only 25 per cent of an officer with an income of 5,000 liras. While the minimum wage is almost impossible to pay for this debt, the debtor may bring some sacrifice to the end of the month.

The same is true for countries.

While evaluating the real foreign debt stock of the country, since the stock is calculated in dollars, the national income is taken as a dollar equivalent. The ratio of its stock to GDP is calculated. Thus, in a sense, it is tried to measure how much sacrifice the economy will bear to pay foreign debts. In other words, the impact of the external debt stock is tried to be understood as if the minimum wage or the salary is similar to that of the officer. In order to understand the situation in Turkey, from September 1989-2018 period, the external debt to GDP ratio graph of the has bilginizesunul below.

1989 is very important. It is a breaking point in the country's economic history. The date on which the foreign exchange legislation (capital movements) is released. The real external debt ratio (external debt stock / GDP) was about 31 percent.



Then the external debts decreased in real terms and fell to 27 percent. Then, the economy was shocked by the external shock and the 1994 Crisis had a leap and the rate was up to 39 percent. Then again, the 2001 Crisis. The real debt rate peaked at 56.5 percent. The same development after the crisis.

As the economy grew faster than the debts, the rate dropped to 36 percent. In the Global Crisis of 2009, only 42 percent approached.

However, the color of the business has changed rapidly after 2011. Real debt ratio approached 54 percent. Please let me give you a detail here. All ratios in the graph are the accounts of the Treasury. If I only calculated the graph using this ratio, the last data would be 53.8 percent in the blue line.

I made a change. When calculating the last real external debt ratio, I took the USD GDP figure at the end of 2015, which is in the New Economic Program (YEP), which is 763 billion dollars. At that time, the ratio of external debt to national income is 58.8 percent.

Year-end data is not yet published. As of October, there is no big change in the public and private sector's external debt. If it remains so, and in September - does not change the figures from December, Turkey will break the record for the last 30 years of real-term external debt stock. The dollar debt will approach two-thirds of its national income.

When the ratio of the debt to income goes to these places, the repayment is quite difficult, as in the case of the same minimum wage. Since the maturity of the private sector's debts is not very long, the annual installments are also large.

Let me finish with a reminder. 68 percent of foreign debts belong to the private sector. Therefore, we will deal with the repayment problems of the companies' external debt in the upcoming period.
 
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Özyıldız *

Turkey's external debt stock, last September was 448.5 billion dollars.

It decreased by $ 6.6 billion compared to June. It's nice to see the stock drop in nominal size. This is the result of the economic developments after July.

But the most healthy measure of a debt stock is its ratio to income.

Real debt.

What does this mean?

If the debt is a small part of the total revenue, there is no problem in repayment. For example, a debt of 1,200 pounds corresponds to 60 per cent of the income of a minimum wage, while only 25 per cent of an officer with an income of 5,000 liras. While the minimum wage is almost impossible to pay for this debt, the debtor may bring some sacrifice to the end of the month.

The same is true for countries.

While evaluating the real foreign debt stock of the country, since the stock is calculated in dollars, the national income is taken as a dollar equivalent. The ratio of its stock to GDP is calculated. Thus, in a sense, it is tried to measure how much sacrifice the economy will bear to pay foreign debts. In other words, the impact of the external debt stock is tried to be understood as if the minimum wage or the salary is similar to that of the officer. In order to understand the situation in Turkey, from September 1989-2018 period, the external debt to GDP ratio graph of the has bilginizesunul below.

1989 is very important. It is a breaking point in the country's economic history. The date on which the foreign exchange legislation (capital movements) is released. The real external debt ratio (external debt stock / GDP) was about 31 percent.



Then the external debts decreased in real terms and fell to 27 percent. Then, the economy was shocked by the external shock and the 1994 Crisis had a leap and the rate was up to 39 percent. Then again, the 2001 Crisis. The real debt rate peaked at 56.5 percent. The same development after the crisis.

As the economy grew faster than the debts, the rate dropped to 36 percent. In the Global Crisis of 2009, only 42 percent approached.

However, the color of the business has changed rapidly after 2011. Real debt ratio approached 54 percent. Please let me give you a detail here. All ratios in the graph are the accounts of the Treasury. If I only calculated the graph using this ratio, the last data would be 53.8 percent in the blue line.

I made a change. When calculating the last real external debt ratio, I took the USD GDP figure at the end of 2015, which is in the New Economic Program (YEP), which is 763 billion dollars. At that time, the ratio of external debt to national income is 58.8 percent.

Year-end data is not yet published. As of October, there is no big change in the public and private sector's external debt. If it remains so, and in September - does not change the figures from December, Turkey will break the record for the last 30 years of real-term external debt stock. The dollar debt will approach two-thirds of its national income.

When the ratio of the debt to income goes to these places, the repayment is quite difficult, as in the case of the same minimum wage. Since the maturity of the private sector's debts is not very long, the annual installments are also large.

Let me finish with a reminder. 68 percent of foreign debts belong to the private sector. Therefore, we will deal with the repayment problems of the companies' external debt in the upcoming period.
No one should care the privately owned debt! It is personal private debt! It is not us the taxpayers who should pay down the debt of rich but stupid as fvck people!

This correction NEEDS to occur! Those that are financially irresponsible despite having known all the facts should pay all the price of their collapsed companies themselves!

I also despise the disgusting people who have a mindset of "well we have to save the big companies! At least they can be saved! Small ones cant be saved but big ones are far too important for us!" FVCK YOU WHOEVER THINKS THIS WAY!

Stop messing the balance of the economy dammit, the reason why we are having all these financial problems all around the world is because of your socialist/communist practices in the first place!

If a company deserves to die then let it die like all other companies! Dont save it just because "it is a big one, important to the economy and employs lots of people"!!

That is just kicking the can down on the road and the can gets weight every time you kick it down the road!

So eventually the can will be so heavy you'll break your leg while trying to kick it down!


There is no more dangerous people in the world than these populist politicians and the sheep following them!
 
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I dont think foreign creditors give loans to anyone without a "letter of guarantie" from banks.

So you cant say it is "private debt"..
 
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1992976_38de6007e463b31014d2066f3f61fdfe-jpg.531339
Currently a lot of big companies declare "konkordato". Stating konkordato they postpone all loans. Thus all creditors including Banks and most importantly unpaid suppliers have to wait without any money. How could agricultural suppliers -who are just farmers sell milk to giant diary YÖRSAN - resist and survive?
There is an inconspicuous support from support to save companies.
That's why private Banks refrain crediting.
The banks know very well if their debters and obligors weren't able to turn back debts, government would oblige all banks to postpone loans. However allegedly saving some companies , you would pull down your financial resources.

There's another subject is Turkish giant entrepre don't invest money in their companies. The biggest 500 companies of Turkey maintain own capital with loans. Bosses don't have any financial shortage . They even avoid using personal capital to own companies. Furthermore they use expensive credits which decrease lucer.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.habe...artirdi-yatirim-ise-yerinde-saydi-1992976-amp
500 big giants increased their profits by 40 percent, while investment remains past years figures.

EQUITY AND Assets

The first two figures that attracted the most attention from the ISO 500 figures were the decline in the share of the share of equity capital, which started in 2009, to 37.1 percent. In spite of the regular profit increase in recent years, the owners of the company tend to take the dividend instead of adding the profit to the capital and it is seen that the company has a tendency to execute the debt. As a matter of fact, the share of total resources, which was 50.9 percent in 2009, decreased steadily by 13.8 points after that year. 500 giant companies in the last 1 year only 3 billion pounds to companies as the equity. Of course, the debt ratio from 49.1 percent to 62.9 percent jumped.

Despite the rise in foreign exchange rates, the increase in international financing costs and the jump in TL interest rates, the borrowing trend climbed in particular with the Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF).



HALF OF Revenus to financial expenses

Financial expenses increased by 21.3 percent from TL 29 billion to TL 35.2 billion. Even though the ratio of financing expenses to net sales fell from 5.2 percent to 4.8 percent, the fact that the industrialist continued to pay half as much as financing expense did not change. In 2016, industrialists who had to allocate 29 billion pounds of 55% of the operating profit of 52 billion in finance expense, 49.8% of operating profit of 70 billion TL in 2017, ie financing 35 billion TL had to break it down.
1992976_38de6007e463b31014d2066f3f61fdfe-jpg.531339

1992976_39281098e52f01333f3aa63a7e73c105.jpg

Bosses of those have lack of money ??quite funny.
 

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