Turkey’s S-400 vs F-35 dilemma in 2019
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“In order to run the S-400 system, you’re going to have Russians all over the place – at least for a couple of years instructing,” Johnson said. “If you’ve got the S-400 radars and you have an F-35 you can find out exactly what you see on an S-400 radar when you’re flying an F-35 anywhere near it … So it would be a major intelligence issue.”
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TheMightyBender
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US: Turkey changing its defense DNA
Currently Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S400 anti ballistic missile defense system stands as the most immediate potentially explosive crisis between Ankara and Washington. By immediate, I don’t mean to talk about a crisis to explode in a matter of days. The timeframe depends on the delivery date of the S400 and according to the most recent statement (made by the presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın,) Russians are planning to deliver the system this July. One might think that four months gives the two sides ample period to find a solution; but looking from messages coming from both sides, it is fair to say that we are fast heading towards a crisis.
The Turkish position can be summarized as going ahead with the purchase of S400’s and continuing at the same time negotiations to buy Patriots from UnitedStates. On the latter issue, the Turkish side argues the price to be too high and the technology transfer to be too low.
For the Americans; the problem remains to be mutual exclusivity. In other words the two system can’t co exist together. Once functional, Russians will get hold of sensitive information via s400’s, they claim.
Turkey faces a ban on the transfer of F-35 aircraft for which it has invested $1.25 billion, unless it cancels the deal with Russia.
Now a days a lot of people keep reminding the solution found during the S300 crisis that broke in 1997/98. The Greek Cypriots were forced to abandon plans to install two S-300 air-defense missile sites because of Turkey’s reaction and the system was located to the Greek island of Creete, with the assumption that it will not be activated.
Could the same “keeping the system in the box after delivery” be an option to solve the crisis? (Without questioning at this stage the rationale or irrationale behind the idea of buying a multi million dollar system that will not be used).
The American answer to this question is a flat no. The sanctions against Turkey will take effect not upon the activation of the system but upon delivery, they say.
And here comes the gist of the problem; which I have underlined in my previous article: the distrust between the two allies.
How come Washington can live with Greece having S300’s located in their soil (supposedly in the box) but not with Turkeyendorsing the same formula? Basically Americans trust the Greeks to keep the system in the box (though there have been news that the system was activated so Israel can test its own aircraft against it) but they can’t trust the Turks.
If F35s are delivered Washington believes it will lose all leverage on the use of the S400 system. The deterioration in bilateral relations have come to such point that Americans not only do not trust the Turkish administration to keep its words but even fear the possibility that it can put at risk American defense technology in favor for Russia!
In short; once the S400 system is delivered; this will mean a change in Turkey’s defense DNA; according to American officials. What does a change in defense DNA mean? Does it mean that Turkey’s loyalty to the Western alliance will be questioned and it will eventually lead to a break up? The Turkish side has four months to find out the answer; because I am sure that the message that US sees the Russian deal as a change in defense DNA is being given to Turkish officials.
But does the message passes across? At this stage American officials worry about a potential misreading of US President Donald Trump by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
In contrast to his usual tenure, Trump is very polite and accommodating when he talks with Erdoğan say American officials. This could be misread by Erdoğan who might also make the mistake to think that Trump has its hands free to take any decision. Unfortunately S400 is a deal closely monitored by the (very unfriendly) Congress.
This misreading seems to lead to the conviction that Turkey can get away with the purchase of s400 without having to face to consequences. Again, we have four months to see whether this will be the case.
Currently Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S400 anti ballistic missile defense system stands as the most immediate potentially explosive crisis between Ankara and Washington. By immediate, I don’t mean to talk about a crisis to explode in a matter of days. The timeframe depends on the delivery date of the S400 and according to the most recent statement (made by the presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın,) Russians are planning to deliver the system this July. One might think that four months gives the two sides ample period to find a solution; but looking from messages coming from both sides, it is fair to say that we are fast heading towards a crisis.
The Turkish position can be summarized as going ahead with the purchase of S400’s and continuing at the same time negotiations to buy Patriots from UnitedStates. On the latter issue, the Turkish side argues the price to be too high and the technology transfer to be too low.
For the Americans; the problem remains to be mutual exclusivity. In other words the two system can’t co exist together. Once functional, Russians will get hold of sensitive information via s400’s, they claim.
Turkey faces a ban on the transfer of F-35 aircraft for which it has invested $1.25 billion, unless it cancels the deal with Russia.
Now a days a lot of people keep reminding the solution found during the S300 crisis that broke in 1997/98. The Greek Cypriots were forced to abandon plans to install two S-300 air-defense missile sites because of Turkey’s reaction and the system was located to the Greek island of Creete, with the assumption that it will not be activated.
Could the same “keeping the system in the box after delivery” be an option to solve the crisis? (Without questioning at this stage the rationale or irrationale behind the idea of buying a multi million dollar system that will not be used).
The American answer to this question is a flat no. The sanctions against Turkey will take effect not upon the activation of the system but upon delivery, they say.
And here comes the gist of the problem; which I have underlined in my previous article: the distrust between the two allies.
How come Washington can live with Greece having S300’s located in their soil (supposedly in the box) but not with Turkeyendorsing the same formula? Basically Americans trust the Greeks to keep the system in the box (though there have been news that the system was activated so Israel can test its own aircraft against it) but they can’t trust the Turks.
If F35s are delivered Washington believes it will lose all leverage on the use of the S400 system. The deterioration in bilateral relations have come to such point that Americans not only do not trust the Turkish administration to keep its words but even fear the possibility that it can put at risk American defense technology in favor for Russia!
In short; once the S400 system is delivered; this will mean a change in Turkey’s defense DNA; according to American officials. What does a change in defense DNA mean? Does it mean that Turkey’s loyalty to the Western alliance will be questioned and it will eventually lead to a break up? The Turkish side has four months to find out the answer; because I am sure that the message that US sees the Russian deal as a change in defense DNA is being given to Turkish officials.
But does the message passes across? At this stage American officials worry about a potential misreading of US President Donald Trump by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
In contrast to his usual tenure, Trump is very polite and accommodating when he talks with Erdoğan say American officials. This could be misread by Erdoğan who might also make the mistake to think that Trump has its hands free to take any decision. Unfortunately S400 is a deal closely monitored by the (very unfriendly) Congress.
This misreading seems to lead to the conviction that Turkey can get away with the purchase of s400 without having to face to consequences. Again, we have four months to see whether this will be the case.
TheMightyBender
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Russian A2/AD capability overrated
Western nations are concerned about Russia’s capability to prevent – from a distance – an enemy’s access to a geographic area (A2/AD). A new FOI report, “Bursting the bubble?” describes the danger as exaggerated and analyzes several possible countermeasures.
The russian mobile theater ballistic missile system 9K720 Iskander (SS-26 Stone) at the International military-technical forum ARMY-2018. Photo: Igor Dolgov.
A2/AD is a military buzzword for the ability to deter, at a distance, an enemy’s deployment in a geographic area. With the aid of sensors that can see enemy targets at great distance and by using long-distance missiles, an enemy’s units can be resisted long before they reach their targets. A2/AD systems have been likened to “steel domes,” or “bubbles,” which make it impossible for an adversary to attack targets or send reinforcements to an area.
When Russia annexed Crimea and attacked eastern Ukraine, the West worried about an attack against the Baltic. Fears were aroused that in such a scenario Russia would be able to “cut off” the Baltic Sea using A2/AD resources. This would make it impossible for NATO to aid its Baltic members with weapons and troops.
“In our report we establish that Russia’s A2/AD capability is less effective than what is claimed by either the Russian military or the Western press. For one thing, it’s more difficult than many people think to detect and strike a target that’s tens of kilometres away,” says Robert Dalsjö, Deputy Research Director at FOI, who wrote the report with Michael Jonsson.
Secondly, analysis shows that the actual range of the new Russian anti-aircraft system, S-400, which is promoted as having a range of 400 kilometres, is actually only 150-200 kilometres. Against low-flying missiles, the S-400’s range may be as short as 20 kilometres.
“This demonstrates that Russian A2/AD does not preclude the possibility of reinforcing the Baltic against a Russian attack. It is not hopeless, as some debaters would claim,” observes Robert Dalsjö.
Active and passive countermeasures
There are several measures for countering A2/AD systems. Some are passive, such as flying around the coverage area of sensors, or stationing troops at a location in good time. Others are active countermeasures, both “soft,” in the form of electronic jamming or chaff dispersed from aircraft, and “hard,” where portions of overall capability are physically knocked out.
“One can neutralise an entire system by knocking out just one link in a functional chain, for example a data link or a fire-control radar. And since seeing over the horizon requires airborne radar, it may then be enough to shoot down the radar aircraft,” says Robert Dalsjö.
To support their thesis, the researchers find support from, among other things, the war in Syria.
“There, we’ve seen how aircraft have merely flown detours around the areas where the Russian systems can operate. We can also see that in spite of the fact that the Russians have sold one of their most modern anti-aircraft systems to Syria, the Syrians haven’t managed to shoot down a single Western plane and, in thirty years, only an isolated few Israeli planes.”
However, making Russia’s A2/AD capability into a manageable problem requires commitments, according to the report.
“Western armed forces have long been fighting against poorly equipped adversaries, such as for example the Taliban. Thus, capacity-building and investments are now required in areas such as electronic warfare, countermeasures and guided weapons,” concludes Robert Dalsjö.
Western nations are concerned about Russia’s capability to prevent – from a distance – an enemy’s access to a geographic area (A2/AD). A new FOI report, “Bursting the bubble?” describes the danger as exaggerated and analyzes several possible countermeasures.
The russian mobile theater ballistic missile system 9K720 Iskander (SS-26 Stone) at the International military-technical forum ARMY-2018. Photo: Igor Dolgov.
A2/AD is a military buzzword for the ability to deter, at a distance, an enemy’s deployment in a geographic area. With the aid of sensors that can see enemy targets at great distance and by using long-distance missiles, an enemy’s units can be resisted long before they reach their targets. A2/AD systems have been likened to “steel domes,” or “bubbles,” which make it impossible for an adversary to attack targets or send reinforcements to an area.
When Russia annexed Crimea and attacked eastern Ukraine, the West worried about an attack against the Baltic. Fears were aroused that in such a scenario Russia would be able to “cut off” the Baltic Sea using A2/AD resources. This would make it impossible for NATO to aid its Baltic members with weapons and troops.
“In our report we establish that Russia’s A2/AD capability is less effective than what is claimed by either the Russian military or the Western press. For one thing, it’s more difficult than many people think to detect and strike a target that’s tens of kilometres away,” says Robert Dalsjö, Deputy Research Director at FOI, who wrote the report with Michael Jonsson.
Secondly, analysis shows that the actual range of the new Russian anti-aircraft system, S-400, which is promoted as having a range of 400 kilometres, is actually only 150-200 kilometres. Against low-flying missiles, the S-400’s range may be as short as 20 kilometres.
“This demonstrates that Russian A2/AD does not preclude the possibility of reinforcing the Baltic against a Russian attack. It is not hopeless, as some debaters would claim,” observes Robert Dalsjö.
Active and passive countermeasures
There are several measures for countering A2/AD systems. Some are passive, such as flying around the coverage area of sensors, or stationing troops at a location in good time. Others are active countermeasures, both “soft,” in the form of electronic jamming or chaff dispersed from aircraft, and “hard,” where portions of overall capability are physically knocked out.
“One can neutralise an entire system by knocking out just one link in a functional chain, for example a data link or a fire-control radar. And since seeing over the horizon requires airborne radar, it may then be enough to shoot down the radar aircraft,” says Robert Dalsjö.
To support their thesis, the researchers find support from, among other things, the war in Syria.
“There, we’ve seen how aircraft have merely flown detours around the areas where the Russian systems can operate. We can also see that in spite of the fact that the Russians have sold one of their most modern anti-aircraft systems to Syria, the Syrians haven’t managed to shoot down a single Western plane and, in thirty years, only an isolated few Israeli planes.”
However, making Russia’s A2/AD capability into a manageable problem requires commitments, according to the report.
“Western armed forces have long been fighting against poorly equipped adversaries, such as for example the Taliban. Thus, capacity-building and investments are now required in areas such as electronic warfare, countermeasures and guided weapons,” concludes Robert Dalsjö.
Peaceful Civilian
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I think turkey should go for F35. There is no match of American military stuff. Can't beat quality. F35 is 2nd best Stealth fighter in the world and that too with with mix of best Mind of western countries & U.S.A and incorporated technology in single machine called F35.
It has space of improvement too. More improvement to come in F35.
It has space of improvement too. More improvement to come in F35.
Successwill
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What if we increase the number of F-35 that we are going to buy? I think thay cant say no. +100 F-35A and 32 F-35B. Total is 232 aircraft.
Bismarck
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132 not 232.
What would it means for turkish reputation if Turkey cancel the S400 deal.
Successwill
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Not 132, 100+100+16+16: 232
Bismarck
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You mean 200 F-35A?
egolfs
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In terms of technology and economics, it makes sense to acquire the F-35.
However, choosing the F-35 over the S-400 system comes with a much bigger cost than can be quantified by mere "dollars"($) - the loss of independence and the inability to be able to assert one's own sovereignty.
Ideally, Turkey should be able to field both options but it is becoming, more and more, apparent that Turkey will not be "allowed" to do this.
It is with great regret that I have witnessed Turkey under-attack !
If I am honest, I'm not in a position to form an opinion as to whether Turkey is in a position (yet) to assert her sovereignty.
Certainly; it must be in the interest of Turkey that her political, economic and military decisions are formulated by her own government and not someone else's but only if she can enforce them and protect the country from the fall-out.
This message of defiance to the US didn't need to be taken now - but after all the "swerving" and "ducking and diving"; Turkey will now have to make a decision.
I don't think the Russians will ever take Turkey seriously again, if they end up cancelling the S-400 agreement. Also; acceding to US demands will ensure, that the US will not take Turkey seriously either. Turkey will remain dependent on American technology (F-35 source codes) and be locked into the American's political and economic systems for at least the next two decades.
So it remains; the authorities in Turkey will have to choose one over the other ...but as we can see, it's not really just a choice between the F-35 Vs S-400
Will Turkey be able to escape from the American's shadow?
I hope they choose wisely and (as always) I hope the best for Türkiye.
However, choosing the F-35 over the S-400 system comes with a much bigger cost than can be quantified by mere "dollars"($) - the loss of independence and the inability to be able to assert one's own sovereignty.
Ideally, Turkey should be able to field both options but it is becoming, more and more, apparent that Turkey will not be "allowed" to do this.
It is with great regret that I have witnessed Turkey under-attack !
- politically (political pressure from the EU and the US),
- economically (foreign exchanges, refugees etc),
- and militarily (terrorist activities, war in neighbouring countries and even a Coup attempt).
If I am honest, I'm not in a position to form an opinion as to whether Turkey is in a position (yet) to assert her sovereignty.
Certainly; it must be in the interest of Turkey that her political, economic and military decisions are formulated by her own government and not someone else's but only if she can enforce them and protect the country from the fall-out.
This message of defiance to the US didn't need to be taken now - but after all the "swerving" and "ducking and diving"; Turkey will now have to make a decision.
I don't think the Russians will ever take Turkey seriously again, if they end up cancelling the S-400 agreement. Also; acceding to US demands will ensure, that the US will not take Turkey seriously either. Turkey will remain dependent on American technology (F-35 source codes) and be locked into the American's political and economic systems for at least the next two decades.
So it remains; the authorities in Turkey will have to choose one over the other ...but as we can see, it's not really just a choice between the F-35 Vs S-400
Will Turkey be able to escape from the American's shadow?
I hope they choose wisely and (as always) I hope the best for Türkiye.
Successwill
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Yes i said what if we increase the aircraft number that we are going to buy..Not necessarily +100, maybe more maybe less
Bismarck
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As we all know Trump is venal.
TheMightyBender
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Have you discovered a goose that lays golden eggs that we don't know about?
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