Turkey’s Air Force Is Obsolete, Warns New Study

[Homajon]

Turkey’s Air Force Is Obsolete, Warns New Study

Michael Peck
May 4, 2021,08:00am EDT

Turkey’s air force is becoming obsolete, according to a new Turkish study.

“Turkey and the Turkish Air Force’s air warfare capabilities face a serious test over the next 10 to 20 years,” writes Can Kasapoglu, director of the security and defense program at Turkish think tank EDAM, who authored the report.

Kasapoglu describes the weakness of Turkish airpower as a “techno-generation problem.” The Turkish Air Force’s fourth-generation F-16s and third-generation F-4s – which are essentially Cold War aircraft – are reaching the end of their lifespans. Turkish plans to replace them with 100 fifth-generation F-35A stealth fighters have collapsed after Turkey was kicked out of the F-35 program amid U.S. anger over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles. Meanwhile, Turkey’s rivals – including Greece and Israel – are receiving F-35s, or generation 4.5 fighters like France’s Rafale.

“If an intermediate solution is not found, Turkish air power will fall behind world trends,” Kasapoglu warns.

The report suggests that giving up the F-35 in favor of S-400 missiles was a bad bargain. “Turkey’s defense planning and national security requirements, are not suitable for a SAM-intensive force structure. The S-400 strategic SAM system, which has just entered the inventory of the Turkish Armed Forces, will not perform at the desired level due to the shortcomings in the network-centered architecture.”

Nor are armed drones a substitute for the F-35. Turkey has garnered a reputation as a drone power after Turkey-made TB2 and Israeli-made Harop drones decimated Armenian troops and armored vehicles during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. But EDAM rejects the idea that drones can substitute for advanced manned aircraft. “Although there is a potential for change within the scope of artificial intelligence and algorithmic warfare, air warfare parameters are still shaped around manned platforms.”

That leaves the TF-X project to develop a homegrown fifth-generation stealth fighter by 2029. But problems finding a suitable engine from overseas manufacturers “may extend the time needed to enter the inventory,” noted EDAM.

It’s not just Turkey’s air force that will feel the loss of the F-35. The loss jeopardizes the Turkish Navy’s plans for an amphibious assault ship – essentially a light aircraft carrier — equipped with short-takeoff and vertical landing F-35Bs, according to EDAM.

The study also warns of Turkish weakness in air and missiles defense. Turkish forces in northern Syria have been bombed by Syrian and Russian aircraft, while United Arab Emirates jets reportedly struck a Turkish airbase in Libya in 2020 after Turkish forces intervened in the Libyan civil war. “The air defense of the Turkish Armed Forces’ forward-deployed combat elements and cross-border bases is becoming an increasingly serious requirement in the lessons learned from the Libyan and Syrian experience,” says EDAM.

Turkey is also surrounded by nations with ballistic missiles, including Syria, Armenia, Iran and Russia. Even here, losing the F-35 is a problem: the stealth jet and its advanced sensors could play a vital role in missile defense, both as an interceptor and by conducting strikes against missile launchers, the study says.

The report makes clear that Turkey has only one real solution to maintain its airpower. “Turkey should return to its priority as the F-35 program. The mentioned policy advice is of great importance both for the combat capabilities of the Turkish Air Force and for the technological and economic gains and employment capacity of the Turkish defense industry.”

Turkey’s Air Force Is Obsolete, Warns New Study

America won't sell F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey. Can Turkey find a replacement?

www.forbes.com

 

[xbat]

iran air force is super ! beyond our century.

 

[GumNaam]

it's high time that Turkey switch over to Chinese & Russian aircrafts. Any combination of JF17s, J10Cs, J15s, J20s, J31s, SU35s & SU57s will bring the TuAF heads & shoulders above any air force in the region including greece, isreal & the u.s.

 

[retaxis]

valid point never the less. Turkey needs to replace the lost F-35s

 

[GumNaam]

valid point never the less. Turkey needs to replace the lost F-35s

The sensor suites of the J20 are still unknown & a closely guarded secret. J31 is even more secretive. f35's only have their sensor suites that make it somewhat unique. Turkey is taking strides in getting close to China & I'm sure that they have transferred a lot of their knowledge about the f35 sensors to both the Chinese & the russians since Turkey was involved in the entire f35 project hence their familiarity with the sensor suites.

 

[LeGenD]

The report suggests that giving up the F-35 in favor of S-400 missiles was a bad bargain. “Turkey’s defense planning and national security requirements, are not suitable for a SAM-intensive force structure. The S-400 strategic SAM system, which has just entered the inventory of the Turkish Armed Forces, will not perform at the desired level due to the shortcomings in the network-centered architecture.”

This.

I pointed out this on a consistent basis on this forum.

it's high time that Turkey switch over to Chinese & Russian aircrafts. Any combination of JF17s, J10Cs, J15s, J20s, J31s, SU35s & SU57s will bring the TuAF heads & shoulders above any air force in the region including greece, isreal & the u.s.

1. China will not export J-20 anytime soon.
2. J-31 is in prototyping stage and some of its systems are known (disclosed by Chinese sources due to export-related considerations).
3. The best Turkey can have from Russia is Su-57 which is not at par with top-of-the-line Western options.

If Turkey and USA are unable to sort out their differences then Turkey will have to manage with home-grown solutions whatever they may be.

 

[Smarana Mitra]

The best Turkey can have from Russia is Su-57 which is not at par with top-of-the-line Western options.

Why do you think Su57 is not good enough? Also, why do you think Russia will export its ultimate fighter jet to Turkey who is not a Russian ally? Russia has not said that it is planning to export Su57

 

[White and Green with M/S]

Why do you think Su57 is not good enough? Also, why do you think Russia will export its ultimate fighter jet to Turkey who is not a Russian ally? Russia has not said that it is planning to export Su57

Its not have All aspect stealth cockpit is in 2 pieces this metal stripe can increase it RCS as well as IRST can increase RCS LAVCON a kind of CANARDS can increase its RCS FROM front (Head on) , itsintake also cause a RCS increments ànd Biggest reflection is the engine which not sheilded etc etc ànd it for exportable when the project started

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Turkey's F-16C fleet is aging and due for retirement in the next couple of decades. They are under arms embargo and cannot acquire any planes to replace them.

 

[mike2000 is back]

This.

I pointed out this on a consistent basis on this forum.


1. China will not export J-20 anytime soon.
2. J-31 is in prototyping stage and some of its systems are known (disclosed by Chinese sources due to export-related considerations).
3. The best Turkey can have from Russia is Su-57 which is not at par with top-of-the-line Western options.

If Turkey and USA are unable to sort out their differences then Turkey will have to manage with home-grown solutions whatever they may be.

Agree, going for the S-400 was a bad choice(especially considering the fact that the US warned them of getting kicked out of the F-35 program), but i guess Erdogan's pride/ego made him to lose some sort of rationality here. It was overall a bad deal for Turkey.
So now, since they have already been kicked out of the F-35 , their best solution is to go for Russia's Su-57, since i don't think the Chinese will be willing to get them with their most advanced fighter J-20. Then they can then try and take their time and focus on their homegrown TF-X fighter which they are trying to develop, but even so that will take decades for them to be able to develop one, and that's assuming they will carry it out until the end(since I'm not sure they have the technological capabilities/skills to develop a 5th generation fighter to keep up with this class of fighters that will be common in their neighbourhood this coming decade.) to think that they can develop this fighter by 2030 is a fanciful dream. Even our country who has far more experience/skills/technology/know how than Turkey is targeting mid 2030s for our tempest fighter to start entering service. So Turkey should be more pragmatic and go for a stop gap measure i guess. They cant develop such a fighter without western help/cooperation.

 

[LeGenD]

Why do you think Su57 is not good enough? Also, why do you think Russia will export its ultimate fighter jet to Turkey who is not a Russian ally? Russia has not said that it is planning to export Su57

Please check following links:

Russia's Su-57 Heavy Fighter Bomber: Is It Really a Fifth-Generation Aircraft?

Russia's Su-57 aircraft has been in development since 2002 and is considered a key part of Russia's arms export industry as a fifth-generation fighter. Despite continued Russian efforts to sell the aircraft, it is unlikely that a fully developed and full production–ready Su-57 will be available...

www.rand.org

The Future of Russia’s Su-57: Few Customers and Little Interest Abroad - Foreign Policy Research Institute

On December 24, Russia’s Sukhoi-57 (Su-57) fighter jet crashed in the country’s Far East dur-ing a test flight. The fighter, believed to be the first one serially produced from a program in de-velopment since 2002, is considered by Moscow to be a key part of its arms export industry. The crash...

www.fpri.org

1. Su-57 is under development and will be technologically mature in late 2020s.
2. India ditched Su-57 project for AMCA project.
3. Russia have offered Su-57 to Turkey as well but the latter have its own TF-X project.

Su-57 have RCS in the (0.1 - 1 m^2) range as per its known patents which is insufficient in view of American VLO-compliant jet fighters, and Israel Air Force (IAF) have operational squadrons of combat-tested F-35i in the present. Some of the shortcomings of Su-57 are highlighted in here.

 

[UKBengali]

Agree, going for the S-400 was a bad choice(especially considering the fact that the US warned them of getting kicked out of the F-35 program), but i guess Erdogan's pride/ego made him to lose some sort of rationality here. It was overall a bad deal for Turkey.
So now, since they have already been kicked out of the F-35 , their best solution is to go for Russia's Su-57, since i don't think the Chinese will be willing to get them with their most advanced fighter J-20. Then they can then try and take their time and focus on their homegrown TF-X fighter which they are trying to develop, but even so that will take decades for them to be able to develop one, and that's assuming they will carry it out until the end(since I'm not sure they have the technological capabilities/skills to develop a 5th generation fighter to keep up with this class of fighters that will be common in their neighbourhood this coming decade.) to think that they can develop this fighter by 2030 is a fanciful dream. Even our country who has far more experience/skills/technology/know how than Turkey is targeting mid 2030s for our tempest fighter to start entering service. So Turkey should be more pragmatic and go for a stop gap measure i guess. They cant develop such a fighter without western help/cooperation.

I think Turkey can develop one by 2030-2035 with UK RR engines. They started on this project a full decade ahead of the UK with the Tempest remember.

Yes it not be anywhere near as good as UK Tempest or even Franco/German NCAS but it will be a start and they can build on this in the future.

If they get it to be as good as UK's version of EFT with Mk2 AESA radar then that would be good going when it comes into service - worse radar, missiles and avionics but better stealth.

 

[mike2000 is back]

I think Turkey can develop one by 2030-2035 with UK RR engines. They started on this project a full decade ahead of the UK with the Tempest remember.

Yes it not be anywhere near as good as UK Tempest or even Franco/German NCAS but it will be a start and they can build on this in the future.

We will see how that will go for them. However, i believe they wont able to do that by that time frame. They have no prior experience developing a fourth generation fighter , much less a fifth generation one. I fail to see where that confidence comes from. Moreover, what's the point of them trying to claim independence if they will still be relying on Western countries for this? Might as well have stuck with the proven F-35 in the first place then, and learn from that, while building that confidence/trust with western powers and leverage that cooperation/ties/trust to fast track their indigenous fighter with western help. However, they choose the opposite direction, now they might lose the know how they gained from the F-35, not talking about the industrial benefits their companies would have enjoyed throughout the life cycle of the F-35. Seriously i don't know what that Erdogan was thinking.
I agree with the article, I'm afraid their air force will fall behind this coming decades as their rivals will be getting far better aircrafts like we are already seeing in the middle east/Mediterranean with Egypt/Greece/UAE etc getting F-35/Rafale/Typhoons etc. except they will go to Russia or China to get more advanced jets to match this. Let's see how things will play up for them this coming decade though.

 

[UKBengali]

We will see how that will go for them. However, i believe they wont able to do that by that time frame. They have no prior experience developing a fourth generation fighter , much less a fifth generation one. I fail to see where that confidence comes from. Moreover, what's the point of them trying to claim independence if they will still be relying on Western countries for this? Might as well have stick with the F-35 from the first place then, and learn from that, while building that confidence/trust with western powers and leverage that cooperation/ties/trust to fast track their indigenous fighter with western help. However, they choose the opposite direction, now they might lose the know how they gained from the F-35, not talking about the industrial benefits their companies would have enjoyed throughout the life cycle of the F-35. Seriously i don't know what that Erdogan was thinking.
I'm afraid their air force will fall behind this coming decades as their rivals will be getting far better aircrafts like we are already seeing in the middle east/Mediterranean with Egypt/Greece/UAE etc getting F-35/Rafale/Typhoon etc. except they will go to Russia or China to get more advanced jets to match this. Let's see how things will play up for them this coming decade though.

Yes they have not even designed a 4th generation fighter as you say.

However they have extensive airframe build experience with both the F-16 and they were ready to build parts of the F-35 airframe as well.

They also are getting pretty decent in the radar, avoinics and missile field if you look at all the projects they have going - their AESA radar for the F-16 upgrade is almost ready.

Like I say if they get an aircraft into production by 2030-2035 that is comparable to the UK's next version of EFT with the Mk 2 AESA radar then they are doing well. Over time they can improve it as it will be in service till the latter half of this centiry.


Lastly, yes Ergodgan did a bizarre thing by buying S-400 and then getting kicked out of the F-35 programme. He has put the Turkish airforce back decades now.

 

[mike2000 is back]

However they have extensive airframe build experience with both the F-16 and they were ready to build parts of the F-35 airframe as well.

They also are getting pretty decent in the radar, avoinics and missile field if you look at all the projects they have going - their AESA radar for the F-16 upgrade is almost ready.

Like I say if they get an aircraft into production by 2030-2035 that is comparable to the UK's next version of EFT with the Mk 2 AESA radar then they are doing well. Over time they can improve it as it will be in service till the latter half of this century.

That's being too optimistic. Just like the Indians claiming they will have their AMCA fifth generation fighter ready by that time frame as well. I don't believe that, and the Indians even have better experience, since at least they have barely managed to designed and built a semi 4th generation fighter jet(and that again with lots of western/Israeli help/input) and that's after several decades of painful work and trials.
If building airframes/parts and assembly of fighter jets was the barometer to build a credible fighter jet, then several countries around the world will be doing that long ago today. lol It seems to me that some of you guys underestimate the difficulties/complexity of building such an advanced complex fighter, it is not a child's play, especially for a new entrant/country who has no prior experience doing so before, that's without even counting the cost(why you think we are brought in Italy/Sweden and are open to more countries joining our tempest program?). The hell even an advanced experienced industrial power like Russia has been struggling with the development of it's SU-57 fifth generation fighter.