Turkey as legal Libyan govt may need help from Iran

[Shawnee]

Correction to the title:
Turkey and legal Libyan government may need help from Iran

Guys. I am opening a field which is very new to you and may initially seem non real. My hypothesis is that Turkey/legal Libyan government may need help from Iran and it is also Iran’s benefit to help them.

Background: in case you don’t know there are two main rivals in Libya:
1. GNA the legal government with support from Turkey, Qatar and Italy.
2. LNA which is led by a general named Hafter and gets help from UAE, KSA, France, Egypt, US, Israel, Russia and Syria.

Despite changes on the ground, it is a stalemate more in favor of LNA. There are lots of support for LNA.

I believe Iran can cooperate with Turkey behind the scenes and they can try to resolve some of the Middle East problems. Hopefully to have more legal governance in ME and less rebels.

You may say Russia and Syria support LNA. Yes but for the wrong reason.
Hafter is a puppet. Turkey was kicked out of Sudan and see what happened to Sudan. Do you want the same for Libya?

You may say Turkey is MB supporter. These guys are MB. Yes but MB in Sudan, Yemen, and Libya in not like MB in Syria.

You may say don’t put too much in your plate. Libya is far away. My answer is you will lose more by being passive and not proactive. Libya is closer than Venezuela and Iran is at the Mediterranean shores.

You may say Turkey is the one in need of help. Their recent victories are limited and they are the weaker side on the paper. Another LNA push is on the way. Why should we make an enemy from Hafter.
My answer is Hafter is already an enemy. GNA is not a friend either but a legal option and less of a puppet. Otherwise, another Sudan is on the way.

You may say it is not moral to get involved in business of people far away.
Answer: Yes it is not. That is why a puppet should not rule there. That is why we should be proactive.

I am open to hear your thoughts.

 

[Philosopher]

If we could create a list of potential places Iran could intervene, that list would be rather large. You calculate where to spend your time and resources by focusing on your own national interest. Libya is not completely insignificant to Iran, but that significance does not meet the threshold to expect Iran to intervene in any considerable way overtly. As far as we know, Iran could already be in Libya in a very limited way. But I personally don't see Iran intervening there when places like Syria, Iraq and even Yemen deserve the focus far more. You never want to overstretch yourself.

 

[Shawnee]

If we could create a list of potential places Iran could intervene, that list would be rather large. You calculate where to spend your time and resources by focusing on your own national interest. Libya is not completely insignificant to Iran, but that significance does not meet the threshold to expect Iran to intervene in any considerable way overtly. As far as we know, Iran could already be in Libya in a very limited way. But I personally don't see Iran intervening there when places like Syria, Iraq and even Yemen deserve the focus far more. You never want to overstretch yourself.

Your point is correct but it depends on how you want to arrange for it with Turkey. What if an arrangement is made that frees forces from Syria? That is how I look at it.

 

[QWECXZ]

Your point is correct but it depends on how you want to arrange for it with Turkey. What if an arrangement is made that frees forces from Syria? That is how I look at it.

Why should we help Erdogan with his dream of a neo-Ottoman empire? How's that in our interest?
And Turkey and our Arab rivals are busy in Libya fighting each other. Why would we want this to end?

 

[Shawnee]

Why should we help Erdogan with his dream of a neo-Ottoman empire? How's that in our interest?
And Turkey and our Arab rivals are busy in Libya fighting each other. Why would we want this to end?

answer to question 1:
We prefer an Algeria to another Sudan.

answer to question 2:
I am not sure this war will continue forever. Turkey is in the weaker position when LNA allies fully engage them. What will happen to Libya when Turkey is kicked out like they were kicked out in Sudan?
Also Turkey can loosen the animosity in Syria in return.
Being proactive is always better. You will have a card against your enemy.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Libyan PM is a Turkish folk from Manisa! And, millions of Libyans have Turkish forefathers. Libya is very much a part of Turkey now...

 

[QWECXZ]

answer to question 1:
We prefer an Algeria to another Sudan.

Why? How is Sudan a threat to us? I'm not challenging you, I just wonder.

answer to question 2:
I am not sure this war will continue forever. Turkey is in the weaker position when LNA allies fully engage them. What will happen to Libya when Turkey is kicked out like they were kicked out in Sudan?
Also Turkey can loosen the animosity in Syria in return.
Being proactive is always better. You will have a card against your enemy.

What if we help Turkey in Libya but Turkey moves against our interests? Turkey is not our ally. We cooperate with each other, but they pursue independent interests that in many important situations conflict with ours.

If anything, I think it is in our best interest that these two sides fight each other to the last bullet. So, we should help both sides. A stalemate seems like the best option for our interests to me.

 

[Shawnee]

Why? How is Sudan a threat to us? I'm not challenging you, I just wonder.


What if we help Turkey in Libya but Turkey moves against our interests? Turkey is not our ally. We cooperate with each other, but they pursue independent interests that in many important situations conflict with ours.

If anything, I think it is in our best interest that these two sides fight each other to the last bullet. So, we should help both sides. A stalemate seems like the best option for our interests to me.

1. Sudan was the result of Turkey trusting KSA. Iran was kicked out from port Sudan initially. Then they decreased their ties with MB and later on Turkey was kicked out too. Relation with Israel is about to begin and they may have a base there soon.

2. The details of a mutual arrangement can guarantee our safety in Syria if we extend further. If there is no mutual understanding, we will delay the plan until we reach one. Having this card in hand is of benefit to us, Turks and also Lybians.

3. There is not going to be a stalemate forever IMHO. Turkey has the flimsy side which is just recently improved thanks to their drones. We have extra help for them to withstand LNA. It is more than manpower. It can include AD, SRBM, and working on Syria and Russia.

 

[QWECXZ]

1. Sudan was the result of Turkey trusting KSA. Iran was kicked out from port Sudan initially. Then they decreased their ties with MB and later on Turkey was kicked out too. Relation with Israel is about to begin and they may have a base there soon.

Let's assume that Israel gets a base there in Sudan. How's that a threat to us? Suppose that Sudan is a pro-Israel, anti-Iran country. What can go wrong for us?
The Rouhani administration has a history of neglecting North Africa. I still remember how they made fun of Ahmadinejad for keeping Djibouti in Iran's pocket.

2. The details of a mutual arrangement can guarantee our safety in Syria if we extend further. If there is no mutual understanding, we will delay the plan until we reach one. Having this card in hand is of benefit to us, Turks and also Lybians.

What if Turkey doesn't honor her end of the deal? The situation in Syria is extremely complex and Turkey is not a major player as much as the US and Israel are.

3. There is not going to be a stalemate forever IMHO. Turkey has the flimsy side which is just recently improved thanks to their drones. We have extra help for them to withstand LNA. It is more than manpower. It can include AD, SRBM, and working on Syria and Russia.

I don't trust the Turks. Turkey is not Lebanon, Yemen or Syria.

 

[Shawnee]

Let's assume that Israel gets a base there in Sudan. How's that a threat to us? Suppose that Sudan is a pro-Israel, anti-Iran country. What can go wrong for us?
The Rouhani administration has a history of neglecting North Africa. I still remember how they made fun of Ahmadinejad for keeping Djibouti in Iran's pocket.


What if Turkey doesn't honor her end of the deal? The situation in Syria is extremely complex and Turkey is not a major player as much as the US and Israel are.


I don't trust the Turks. Turkey is not Lebanon, Yemen or Syria.

1. Details of the deal should guarantee our safety in Syria. We do not have to rush.

2. Ahmadinejad gave free money to Djibouti and that was a mistake. I dislike both Ahmedinejad and Rouhani.

3. I disagree with you that US or Israel have a better hand than Turkey in Syria. Even US analysts say they have a bad hand in Syria. Israel has no hand in Syria and the occasional airstrikes are scratches on a big rock that get inflation through media.

4. You don’t have to trust Erdogan. You have to trust the details of the deal you make. Even if you fail to make a quick deal, you will have a stronger hand against your enemies, because you may surprise them with that deal anytime.

5. Red Sea used to be a better place for Iran. It is not anymore due to shifts in Sudan, and Djibouti. What keeps Iranian ships safe is merely the revenge that may happen in the Persian gulf.

 

[Aramagedon]

Libyan PM is a Turkish folk from Manisa! And, millions of Libyans have Turkish forefathers. Libya is very much a part of Turkey now...

Yes, you just made ottoman empire.

 

[QWECXZ]

1. Details of the deal should guarantee our safety in Syria. We do not have to rush.

2. Ahmadinejad gave free money to Djibouti and that was a mistake. I dislike both Ahmedinejad and Rouhani.

3. I disagree with you that US or Israel have a better hand than Turkey in Syria. Even US analysts say they have a bad hand in Syria. Israel has no hand in Syria and the occasional airstrikes are scratches on a big rock that get inflation through media.

4. You don’t have to trust Erdogan. You have to trust the details of the deal you make. Even if you fail to make a quick deal, you will have a stronger hand against your enemies, because you may surprise them with that deal anytime.

5. Red Sea used to be a better place for Iran. It is not anymore due to shifts in Sudan, and Djibouti. What keeps Iranian ships safe is merely the revenge that may happen in the Persian gulf.

1. It won't be a legally binding deal because you can't write a deal about interfering in another country's affairs in a different continent. It will be more or less based on trust and give and take. I don't think Turkey wants Libya so badly that it agrees to our conditions for Syria. And if Turkey betrays the deal, we won't be able to completely force Turkey out of Syria. So, it's a bad deal.

2. Well, we constructed the Djibouti parliament for them. It doesn't cost that much. Does it? Djibouti is of extremely geopolitical importance to us to control navigation and oil transport in the Red Sea.

3. I was talking from Iran's perspective. Turkey can't do anything in Syria unless they convince Russians to betray us. Turkey on its own is pretty harmless in Syria. Their recent adventure in Syria ended in Putin humiliating Erdogan. The US and Israel are not in a bad position in Syria. The US does not want to get involved in Syria, otherwise they could overthrow Assad in a month. Do you really think Assad can deter a Saddam style attack by US and NATO?

4. I don't understand this. How will we have a stronger hand if we give Libya to Turkey and they don't support Assad in return?

5. Yeah, but I'd rather give free money to Djibouti than to help a regional rival like Turkey. Also, we have some friends in Somalia and Nigeria. They are not powerful, but they exist.

 

[Aramagedon]

Turkey is an illegitimate entity in Daesh controlled Syria and NATO Wahhabi war torn Lybia.

 

[Shawnee]

1. It won't be a legally binding deal because you can't write a deal about interfering in another country's affairs in a different continent. It will be more or less based on trust and give and take. I don't think Turkey wants Libya so badly that it agrees to our conditions for Syria. And if Turkey betrays the deal, we won't be able to completely force Turkey out of Syria. So, it's a bad deal.

2. Well, we constructed the Djibouti parliament for them. It doesn't cost that much. Does it? Djibouti is of extremely geopolitical importance to us to control navigation and oil transport in the Red Sea.

3. I was talking from Iran's perspective. Turkey can't do anything in Syria unless they convince Russians to betray us. Turkey on its own is pretty harmless in Syria. Their recent adventure in Syria ended in Putin humiliating Erdogan. The US and Israel are not in a bad position in Syria. The US does not want to get involved in Syria, otherwise they could overthrow Assad in a month. Do you really think Assad can deter a Saddam style attack by US and NATO?

4. I don't understand this. How will we have a stronger hand if we give Libya to Turkey and they don't support Assad in return?

5. Yeah, but I'd rather give free money to Djibouti than to help a regional rival like Turkey. Also, we have some friends in Somalia and Nigeria. They are not powerful, but they exist.

Part 1, 4, and 5: You can try to make a good deal for two sides. The deal will not be legitimate but can have serious give and takes. You can make sure what you get is irreversible when you give something irreversibly.

Part 3. Turkey needs Libya more than Syria especially if her concerns about Syria is resolved. Syria has no oil but Mediterranean Sea can have as much oil as the Persian gulf. Turkey’s concerns for Syria can be addressed.

Also for Part 2. 130 countries wanted to remove Assad from power and they failed. That is a big blow to anyone who wanted to remove Assad. Russia cannot remove Assad without Iran’s consent either.
Iran has the strongest hand in Syria by far. Russian support is very helpful of course.
US could attack Syria at a huge cost risking a war with its allies and also risking to face Assad’s strong unconventional force including Sarin and VX. People tend to underestimate VX but it destroys a city worse than a nuke. It leave it unlivable for 10 years.

Part 2: we gave Djibouti money irreversibly without getting anything irreversibly. We should never do that again.

 

[QWECXZ]

Part 1, 4, and 5: You can try to make a good deal for two sides. The deal will not be legitimate but can have serious give and takes. You can make sure what you get is irreversible when you give something irreversibly.

Part 3. Turkey needs Libya more than Syria especially if her concerns about Syria is resolved. Syria has no oil but Mediterranean Sea can have as much oil as the Persian gulf. Turkey’s concerns for Syria can be addressed.

Also for Part 2. 130 countries wanted to remove Assad from power and they failed. That is a big blow to anyone who wanted to remove Assad. Russia cannot remove Assad without Iran’s consent either.
Iran has the strongest hand in Syria by far. Russian support is very helpful of course.
US could attack Syria at a huge cost risking a war with its allies and also risking to face Assad’s strong unconventional force including Sarin and VX. People tend to underestimate VX but it destroys a city worse than a nuke. It leave it unlivable for 10 years.

Part 2: we gave Djibouti money irreversibly without getting anything irreversibly. We should never do that again.

1. Fair enough. What do you suggest to give to Turkey that is reversible? What should we take in return?

2. Syria has oil. The US is controlling Syria's oil fields in the East in areas like Deir Ezzur. ISIS which previously controlled those areas sold Syria's oil to Turkey. Plus, Syria is Turkey's neighbor. Turkey's economy can't support millions of Syrian refugees.

3. If you think about it, the situation is not bad for the US. They are stealing Syria's oil. They have destroyed Syria. They have kept Iran in a war that its end doesn't seem to happen soon. As for Israel, they are worried about Iran's growing influence in Syria and our ground access to the Mediterranean Sea and they are addressing it by air and missile strikes. Syria of course is in no position to respond to those air strikes. So, the situation is far from bad for the US and Israel. It is not ideal, yeah, but it's not terrible either. Also, Israel doesn't want to replace a weak secular regime like Assad with a radical Islamic regime.