DISCLAIMER: I am not claiming knowledge of these things. I am using publicly available data to see a pattern. I have documented drone strikes during the past year. Of note are the sets of strikes (4,5,6,7,8,9), (13,14), and (16,17).
In all two of three sets there is a pattern:
First, someone from the Haqqani Network is targeted very close to or inside Pakistan.
Second, almost immediately (within a day) someone from TTP is targeted on the Afghan side. Both of these times the targets have been rather important TTP commanders. Namely, Khorasani, and Sajna.
I am not usually who likes to speculate things like this but it seems very unlikely that USA is trying appease us by doing "complimentary strikes" on TTP, especially when the rhetoric coming out of the current administration is so harsh. Secondly, it seems the Pakistani side has been taking a stronger stand on drone strikes (an example of this is the statement by the Air Chief).
I am SPECULATING that we have decided to cross a line we hadn't crossed before (at least not so obviously). Every time there's a drone strike on the Haqqani Network on the Pakistani side, there's a "payback strike" on an important TTP commander on the Afghan Side. It would appear we always had the intelligence, and we did go and touch them physically when we could, but now we just send a drone if the target is in the border region. This has the following benefits:
- Deniability: No one is saying Pakistani drone strikes. Everyone will assume they are CIA strikes.
- Reduced Risk: No risk of endangering our operatives.
- Messaging: Send a message to the other side that we see you too, and can undermine your position too.
- Proportionate Response: This is the only reasonable response to a drone strike because you can't shoot down a US drone for a variety of reasons (they usually remain in Afghan Airspace, and could elicit a stronger US response if shot down)
I would love to read everyone's opinions on this. I wonder if I am putting too much faith in our ability lol.
Drone Strikes listed in chronological order (near Durrand Line):
1. April 27, 2017 (Pakistan, North-Wazirstan)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1329594
2. June 13, 2017 (Pakistan, Hangu)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1339293
3. September 15, 2017 (Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1357853
https://www.dawn.com/news/1358039
4. October 16, 2017 (Pakistan, Kurram Agency)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364209
ISPR denies this happened on Pakistani side.
5. October 16, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patkia)
Target: Unknown – no casualties
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364426
6. October 17, 2017 (Afghanistan, Shpola/ Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi: Disputed)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364400
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364314
7. October 18, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: JuA (Umar Khalid Khorasani)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364510
8. October 19, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364833
9. October 20, 2017 (Afghanistan, Jawar Ser)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1365061
10. November 30, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patan)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1373844
11. December 19, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1377496
12. December 26, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1378954
https://www.dawn.com/news/1379121
13. January 17, 2018 (Pakistan, Badshah Kot)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516
14. January 17, 2018 (Afghanistan, Khani Kila)
Target: Unkown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516
15. January 24, 2018 (Pakistan, Speen Thal Dapa Mamozai)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1384978
16. February 09, 2018 (Pakistan, Gorwek)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388283
17. February 09, 2018 (Afghanistan, Kharh Tangi)
Target: TTP (Khan Said Sajna)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388361