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Towards a new & Improved Fauj

I think it has to be obvious to all that the real figure of what Pakistan spends on military is not the figures being bandied about here.
The 'real figures' have to be within the the ambit of total revenues taken in by the State, plus borrowing. While one could 'fudge' the specifics of how the 380 billion budgeted for defence is actually spent, one cannot create 'money' out of thin air, especially if the argument is as ludicrous as '50% of total resources'. That would imply (per the link I posted) that Pakistan was somehow able to hide Rs. 2462 billion (which was the total budget outlay for 2009-2010, out of which 380 billion was allocated to defence). The argument being made here is that Pakistan is somehow taking in twice as much revenue as it is declaring.

So unless you have some facts to back up the assertion of 'much higher defence spending', your argument is nothing but speculation.

Just producing and storing the nukes in the numbers being talked about would cost several billions. Pakistani military numbers are mostly in the ratio of 1.5:1 or even less in most cases.

There is no way such a huge establishment is maintained with those budgets. It should be plain for all to see.
Exact funding for the nuclear program is secret - could be out of the military budget, and could also have funding diverted to it from the businesses run by the military. The Fauji Foundation paid $600 million in taxes in 2008 alone, per the link I posted earlier. I assume revenues were substantial. But even so, I don't see how one can substantiate allegation of huge amounts of revenue/borrowing being hidden to secretly fund the defence budget. Sounds like a conspiracy theory.
 
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"Where did the '50% of resources for the military' figure come from"

From Niaz-

"...Our Armed forces will continue to eat up 50% of the resources..."
Why regurgitate a figure read on a forum without validating it? Please see my response to Vinod above and explain where such larger amounts of revenue/borrowing are being hidden and obtained from.
Thanks for the budget link however. It's extensive. Perhaps you can highlight the salient elements WRT defense and security expenditures? Would that include development of your strategic assets?
See page 7 on the link I provided. 'Defence Affairs and Services == 378 billion'.

As for the breakdown within the defence budget, that is irrelevant in the context of the discussion of what proportion of total resources are devoted to defence.

"And the points raised by both Niaz and Muse have been countered and far better alternatives offered, which you have not addressed either... So no, the issues highlighted by Regional development can be far better addressed through raising resources through the reforms I outlined."

Perhaps. Most of your offerings must be carefully scrutinized for culling. The message is typically distortional.
Finish culling before ranting - making pronouncements about the validity of an argument that has already been countered, without addressing the counter-arguments, is intellectually sloppy work.

"No it [the military] does not, for reasons already mentioned in detail..."

It does so we disagree. Complaints of an inability to prosecute an existing war in your west for lack of resources is too-common a theme. Your armed forces, particularly the army, could stand a dramatic restructuring acknowledging your existential threats. Doing so would free resources expensively-maintained and of little use.
The existential threats include India, and therefore the restructuring proposed by the likes of the author and you ignore one threat in favor of your preferred threat. In addition, as pointed out, the 'lack of resources' can be alleviated through the resource generation and law enforcement and civilian institutional reforms mentioned, so that they can step into the void created after the Taliban/extremists are routed by the military. The military is stretched because the civilian side is lacking, and cannot step in to provide governance, development and security. The civilian side is then where the reforms must take place.

I pointed this out already - stop wasting time and actually read the counter-arguments already made.

"They have already been sufficiently 'revitalized' as pointed out earlier..."

Not so IMV. On-going operations in Swat, Bajaur and Mohmand suggest otherwise.
On going operations in Afghanistan after 10 years would also suggest that the US/NATO have no business doling out advice on how to run COIN campaigns either. The operations continue in those agencies in FATA (at a much, much lower tempo and threat level may I add, indicating the initial success at routing out the Taliban/extremists), because the civilian side has not been able to step in to take over security and governance - hence the need for reforms in the civilian side.
A complete absence of combat operations after ten years of afghan taliban warriors within N. Waziristan also suggest as much. These are just the broadest sketches illustrating your dilemmas but are adequate points-of-departure for more.
The absence of operations in NW has already been explained - the resources generated and freed by reforms on the civilian side would allow for the military to then focus elsewhere in FATA.
Virtually any of your military experts (particularly army officers) here would be able to discuss details of necessary operational improvement absent an open forum.
I am sure they would, which would indicate that the military is continuing to focus on operational improvements, just as it implemented a huge amount of operational improvements in the time that Kayani took over from Musharraf. Additional resources generated by the civilian reforms mentioned would potentially allow even more improvements.

Transformation is not an easy nor inexpensive process.
That, in fact, was the argument made by both Xeric and I in response to the author, Muse and Niaz's claims that 'transformation and reform' to a 'modern, high tech and mobile' military focused on COIN would be 'less expensive' than the current resources spent on the military.

Your rejection of such is curious given a background seemingly unsuited for such an appraisal. You've not the expertise to make this judgement IMV. My own experience wouldn't fully prepare me to make this appraisal. Perhaps Shek, who worked in the Strategic Plans division of D.A. might be able to sketch the complexities but it's a full-time topic for any pro. That wouldn't describe you whatsoever. However, I'm open to the possibility that such is desirable. You're not...without merit.
Rejection of what? I have not rejected the need for continued operational improvements. i have questioned the rationale and feasibility of converting the entire military into a COIN force and ignoring the equally existential threat from India. I have expanded upon my arguments on where reforms need to take place (civilian institutions), why they need to take place and how they would assist far more than the authors suggestions. I have yet to see a rebuttal.

"No you don't - your double standards on the NSG exemption to India, refusal to extend trade concessions, unilateral intelligence operations by CIA thugs run amuck, sheltering of Baluch terrorists and facilitating their 'exile and asylum' to Switzerland, sheltering of Taliban terrorists in Kunar, all clearly point to a duplicitous policy of weakening Pakistan and attacking it."

Nonsense. Your demeanor is that of a petulant child. India's NSG exemption took the approval of the 45 nation NSG group. Your singular focus on America illustrates again a distortional proclivity that's counter-productive. India's track record on proliferation made them an excellent candidate.
Your attempt to hide the singularly important role played by the US in convincing the NSG to grant the exemption to India exposes your duplicity and dishonesty. Even ignoring that, the US took a diametrically opposed position when it came to Pakistan on access to civilian nuclear energy to cater to its energy shortfall and increasing demand. That clearly goes against your claim of 'wanting to help Pakistan', since in this instance you clearly did the opposite while bolstering her enemy.

We owe you nothing WRT trade concessions when you are a the recipient of a specific congressional act (Kerry-Lugar) aimed at your economic and social development. We're the most generious enemy you'll ever likely know. A case to be far otherwise can be easily made.
The Pakistani FM indicated that around $300 million has been disbursed to Pakistan out of the KLL so far. And I never claimed the US 'owed Pakistan trade concessions', but your refusal to grant them clearly indicates that the US does not have any intention of 'wanting to help Pakistan'. Refusing trade concessions and handing out meager amounts of aid only indicates a desire to keep Pakistan beholden to US handouts, not a desire to 'help Pakistan'.
"CIA thugs run amuck" might be unnecessary were LeT thugs long-running amuck not a harsh reality and threat to our nation. It cuts both ways and you've at least as much responsibility. Save it for another argument though.
There are no 'LeT thugs running amuck'. What 'LeT thugs running amuck' did Davis or any of his counterparts snare?

We've not sheltered one Balouch terrorist. This was established by you and I in the Wikileak transcripts. Nor have we abetted their flight elsewhere. Your argument remains with the GoA.
We established nothing of the sort. Your denial of the US supporting terrorists is a bald faced lie - your government officials discussed the presence of Brahamdegh Bugti and his terrorist organization, and their being sheltered by the Afghans with the Afghan President. That is clearly established in wikileaks. Even assuming that the poor, naive CIA had absolutely no idea of the presence of these terrorists in territory under the control of the US (despite Musharraf ranting and raving about it every chance he got), the US did nothing after that reported conversation, and the latest news is that the terrorist leader has been facilitated in traveling to Switzerland for asylum.

Further, your implication that we've sheltered terrorists in Kunar is an open slander. Six U.S. troops died recently in combat operations in Kunar. Alluding otherwise fits your dissembling narrative regardless of how often I've posted current orders of battle here.
Pakistani troops have died at the hands of Haqqani and Gul Bahadur in NW - so what is your point? Terrorists in their hundred and thousands continue to repeatedly cross over into Pakistan from Afghanistan to attack Pakistani security forces. Just yesterday 16 security forces were killed in such a cross border attack.

Here's the latest. Educate yourself-

Afghanistan Order Of Battle-Institute For The Study Of War April 2011

It'll only take you a moment to realize that the best part of Task Force Bastogne 1st Brigade Combat Team has three battalions (1-32 Cav, 1-327 and 2-327 Infantry) operating in Kunar.
What does your Orbat have to do with negating the fact that terrorists in their hundreds train and cross over to Pakistan from Afghanistan to attack Pakistani security forces? I do not care where your forces are deployed - they are not stopping terrorists from finding sanctuary in Afghan territory and crossing into Pakistan to attack Pakistani forces. If you can accuse the PA of supporting terrorists by allowing the same, then the same accusation applies to the US.
Qari Ziaur Rahman was captured by your forces with the help of C.I.A. "thugs" and released. He was subsequently promoted as the taliban emir of Kunar operations. No doubt his forces enjoy the benefits of very rugged terrain and porous borders.
Poor policy at the time to pursue dialog with the Taliban. But how does that excuse the US failure to prevent these terrorists from finding sanctuary in Afghanistan and launching cross-border attacks into Pakistan?
What about it?
Were you more informed you'd acknowledge (among many other items) the cooperation by your forces and ours in the border reaches to the extent permissable by GHQ Rawalpindi.
The US needs no 'cooperation from GHQ Rawalpindi' to attack and eliminate these terrorists finding havens on Afghan territory. Our forces are already deployed across the border in Bajaur and Dir. Where are yours preventing these cross-border attacks?

"The admiral would not discuss specifics of his conversations with Kayani. He meets at least quarterly with the Pakistani military leader, he said, and those conversations remain private.

Generally, the admiral said, the Pakistani military is in a difficult fight with extremists in Mohmond province, its third campaign against extremists there.
Yes, they keep running back across the border into Afghanistan where your military is apparently doing nothing.
"...The best defence is both fortification of those regions by development..."

I said EXACTLY that in my comments-

"...I'd counter that the best defense against such (should it be a tangible threat) is the fortification of those regions by development..."

You plagarize if attempting to make this your own. Stop it.:azn:
Asinine comments only illustrate the weakness of your arguments.

"...as well as influencing the Afghan government to keep its hands off..."

Doing so by differing means than currently might be helpful. Chicken or the egg in this latest iteration of afghan-Pakistani squabbles. Maintaining a proxy force aimed at Afghanistan holds precedent over the formation of their latest government. Those in Kabul might suggest that Pakistan, too, should "keep its hands off".
Involving Pakistan in the training of the Afghan security forces soon after the invasion, obtaining Pakistani opinion about the leadership being put in place in the Afghan government and hearing out their concerns would have been an excellent way to engage Pakistan in the development of Afghanistan. But of course, the above would have only occurred had the US actually wanted to 'help Pakistan'. You laid the groundwork of an anti-Pakistan regime and intelligence service and military.
Please-no tiresome history lesson again. I've read it too many times from you and it's become a regular feature of your anti-afghan diatribe. That so-called government poses no salient threat to a nuclear-armed Pakistan. If otherwise, your troubles far exceed any capacity for resolution and you'd best surrender immediately.
Then a rag tag group of AL Qaeda and the Taliban 'poses no salient threat to the 'nuclear-Armed military and economic might of the US' ...

Implement your 'words of wisdom' yourself first and foremost.
 
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We established nothing of the sort. Your denial of the US supporting terrorists is a bald faced lie - your government officials discussed the presence of Brahamdegh Bugti and his terrorist organization, and their being sheltered by the Afghans with the Afghan President. That is clearly established in wikileaks. Even assuming that the poor, naive CIA had absolutely no idea of the presence of these terrorists in territory under the control of the US (despite Musharraf ranting and raving about it every chance he got), the US did nothing after that reported conversation, and the latest news is that the terrorist leader has been facilitated in traveling to Switzerland for asylum.

Here's an old article and video suggesting that the US is supporting rebels in Balochistan to fight against Iran; however, this is not BLA, it's Jundullah, and the same article and video indicate that Pakistan is helping the Americans to support these groups against Iran, but then again this is 4 years old so maybe it had something to do with Musharraf, though I can't comment on that since I don't know much about the topic.

ABC News Exclusive: The Secret War Against Iran - The Blotter


2:10 "This absolutely could not happen without the approval at the most senior level of the Pakistani government"

so is it true, and if it is, then are the US and Pakistani blaming each other for supporting the same thing?
 
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The 'real figures' have to be within the the ambit of total revenues taken in by the State, plus borrowing. While one could 'fudge' the specifics of how the 380 billion budgeted for defence is actually spent, one cannot create 'money' out of thin air, especially if the argument is as ludicrous as '50% of total resources'. That would imply (per the link I posted) that Pakistan was somehow able to hide Rs. 2462 billion (which was the total budget outlay for 2009-2010, out of which 380 billion was allocated to defence). The argument being made here is that Pakistan is somehow taking in twice as much revenue as it is declaring.

So unless you have some facts to back up the assertion of 'much higher defence spending', your argument is nothing but speculation.

May be you can suggest how you are maintaining a ratio of 1.5:1 (or lesser) with a military budget that is 1/9th.

I can simply point to the rule of thumb to say that these numbers can't be correct and much is being hidden.

Exact funding for the nuclear program is secret - could be out of the military budget, and could also have funding diverted to it from the businesses run by the military. The Fauji Foundation paid $600 million in taxes in 2008 alone, per the link I posted earlier. I assume revenues were substantial. But even so, I don't see how one can substantiate allegation of huge amounts of revenue/borrowing being hidden to secretly fund the defence budget. Sounds like a conspiracy theory.

So nothing but speculation?

Everything I have read suggests that the nuke programme of your size would cost more than your entire public military budget!

You seem to suggest the military has some means of independent revenue generation, aka the military inc. suggested by Ayesha (?) earlier?

A comparative study of what other countries spend gives a clue that these numbers are just not credible.
 
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I've reviewed your proposed 2010-2011 budget. It accords 10 rupees to your defense expenditure for every rupee spent on education, health, housing and the environment. This is unsustainable.

Pakistan cannot wait for your Fauj to "rout" the taliban. Development, therefore cannot proceed sequentially but must happen in concurrence to achieve effective control over areas retaken by your proud army.

Our operations are conducted to the best of our humble abilities on behalf of a host nation. Doing so has entailed a significant cultural learning curve. Nobody in our forces would suggest otherwise and I've noted nothing but a humble recognition of the daunting barriers to such that Afghanistan imposes. OTOH, Pakistani military operations are conducted with the financial help of others on your own lands and amidst your own peoples. What's your excuse? The first operation of significance occurred in September 2008 in Bajaur. It's on-going. You nearly LOST Swat/Buner in April 2009 before awakening from your somnolence.

Please avoid the distracting strawmen. You can stand the help whenever the shoe fits...as can everybody else.

There's no dishonesty on my part regarding America's sponsorship of India's NSG exempt status. It's a common fact. Does that need explaining? What you fail to explain, however, is why 44 other members concurred with our assessment of India's fitness. Conversely, Pakistan's record of non-proliferation is weak. Very much so.

Of course, you could appeal to the PRC for such a sponsorship. They're your all-weather friends...or are they-

"Chinese officials said last month that export of the reactors to Pakistan would be justified in consideration of political developments in South Asia, including the entry into force of the U.S.–India deal and the NSG exemption for India. Western diplomats said China would not strongly favor an NSG exemption for Pakistan matching India’s because that would not additionally benefit Chinese industry and because Pakistan, compared to India, is a limited nuclear power market with far less infrastructure and far fewer financial resources."

Pakistan Deal Signals China's Growing Nuclear Assertiveness-Carnegie Endowment April 2010

It would appear that we're not the only nation failing to support Pakistan before the NSG. Is China your enemy too?

"...That clearly goes against your claim of 'wanting to help Pakistan', since in this instance you clearly did the opposite while bolstering her enemy..."

That's your cross to bear. Pakistan is unsupportable given your sordid proliferation track-record. We've done and continue to provide for Pakistan in more ways than your limited memory apparently allows. Earthquakes, floods, and sixty years of continuous aid measured in billions of dollars fly out of your memory wherever convenient. It's not what we do but what we don't do upon which you maintain such a careful ledger.

"Pakistani troops have died at the hands of Haqqani and Gul Bahadur in NW - so what is your point?"

I can recall not one instance of operations against either. Please provide links to combat waged against Haqqani AND Bahadur. I'll be eager to read about it and happy to stand corrected.

"Terrorists in their hundred and thousands continue to repeatedly cross over into Pakistan from Afghanistan"

Now this borders on ludicrous. "hundreds and thousands"? Please, the hyperbole is an insult to the taliban if not your own forces too.

"What about it [the Rahman Interview]?"

So haven't you read it?

"...they are not stopping terrorists from finding sanctuary in Afghan territory and crossing into Pakistan to attack Pakistani forces."

Sanctuary is a term which you seemingly pretend no familiarity. If you read the Rahman interview then you'll note that his forces were constantly threatened by attack from both the air and ground. That remains the case today in Kunar. There is no commensurate threat of attack for Haqqani's men in Pakistan. THAT, in a nutshell, is the salient definition of "sanctuary".

Here's what is clear-Rahman has access to a border area that's porous. Rahman chooses whom and when he attacks. It may well be that, in sum, he far prefers attacking Pakistani forces in Bajaur over American forces in Kunar.

"...If you can accuse the PA of supporting terrorists by allowing the same, then the same accusation applies to the US..."

Absolutely not. Sanctuary doesn't exist where the threat of attack is always imminent. For Rahman, he makes clear that he's threatened with attack by our forces. Not so with those you've harbored since 2001. Omar, Hekmatyar and Haqqani's men never faced any such threat and many right here believe that they are retained as proxy armies to be aimed at Afghanistan. Perhaps even you.

"...Yes, they keep running back across the border into Afghanistan where your military is apparently doing nothing..."

I refuse to insult your troops dying in the field in defense of Pakistan. Over 1,000 American troops have died defending the citizens of another land not their own. Their sacrifice is noteworthy. This comment by you is small-minded, petty and insulting. Nothing less.

You bask in the comfort of America yet fail to display the manhood necessary to take up arms in defense of your own nation while it's engaged in war. Who are you to cast aspersions when you don't know the first thing about combat or serving in the armed forces?

"...Your denial of the US supporting terrorists is a bald faced lie..."

I've done no such thing but won't accept being called a liar. We both read the transcript. At no point did it indicate American knowledge or complicity in such-

US embassy cables: Karzai admits to sheltering Baloch nationalists-Guardian Dec. 1, 2010

Item #11-

"Assistant Secretary Boucher asked Karzai if he knew where Bugti was. Karzai responded that a lot of Bugtis come to Afghanistan. In fact, over 200, with their sons and money, have come. Karzai said he advised them to go the United Nations for asylum, but many were frightened and are in hiding. The United Nations declined to deal with the issue, considering it too sensitive. Karzai said he was "not interested in having them in Afghanistan as it was too much trouble."

"...your government officials discussed the presence of Brahamdegh Bugti and his terrorist organization, and their being sheltered by the Afghans with the Afghan President."

Yes. See above. Discussing such indicated no collusion or even prior knowledge. That's fully evident to most and should be to you also. The facts are there to read.

"...Even assuming that the poor, naive CIA had absolutely no idea of the presence of these terrorists in territory under the control of the US..."

Control of Afghanistan by the U.S.? Don't be intentionally obtuse or are you simply that naive? Were it so we wouldn't need to endure Karzai any more than you. I rather doubt, however, Bugti's a significant concern of ours and KNOW its no obligation of our C.I.A. to track Bugti's presence in Afghanistan, Switzerland or elsewhere.

OTOH, I imagine Amrullah Saleh had an interest. Take your complaint to Kabul...or him. They won't care though. They're too busy ducking bombs sent by those you harbor on the Pakistani side of the border. Pakistan makes enemies, A.M. When it washes back onto Pakistan don't be surprised. Karzai is no friend of Pakistan nor can I imagine why he should be.

"...And I never claimed the US 'owed Pakistan trade concessions'..."

Of course you have lest you'd not carp about it. Reconstruction Opportunity Zones, nonetheless, remain a desire for the current administration and significant elements of our congress. The bill will likely see approval when it comes before a vote.

"...but your refusal to grant them clearly indicates that the US does not have any intention of 'wanting to help Pakistan'."

Any more or less than the significant concessions received from other notable nations. I note with interest this from PAKISTAN TODAY-

China refuses unilateral trade concessions to Pakistan-April 23, 2011 Pakistan Today

"Refusing trade concessions and handing out meager amounts of aid only indicates a desire to keep Pakistan beholden to US handouts, not a desire to 'help Pakistan'".

I don't consider over $350m of aid in the last year to be meager but that illustrates your perspective. Nevermind that you're $350m richer than otherwise. The glass is always half-empty with you it seems. We're slated to disburse much more as the mechanisms to do so are put in place. Here is a GAO report indicating the amounts so far disbursed-

Department of State’s Report to Congress and U.S. Oversight of Civilian Assistance to Pakistan Can Be Further Enhanced-GAO Feb. 17, 2011

Those funds were appropriated exactly one year ago. This from the spokeswoman for the special representative to Afghanistan-Pakistan-

"Holbrooke's office, which is now run by the new SRAP Marc Grossman, told The Cable that the leftover funds were due to the fact that the money was appropriated belatedly and the first year of the program carried with it unique challenges.

"While the facts of the GAO report are accurate, it doesn't reflect the big picture nor adequately represent what we've achieved with civilian assistance over the last year," said Jessica Simon, a spokesperson for the SRAP office. "As the FY 2010 funding was appropriated in April 2010, it is hardly surprising that only a portion of the funding was disbursed by the end of the year."

Simon said that in total, the U.S. government has disbursed $878 million of Pakistan-specific assistance since October 2009, which includes over $514 million in emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the devastating July 2010 floods.

The floods also slowed the progress of the Kerry-Lugar program, Sen. John Kerry's spokesman Frederick Jones told The Cable."


Most U.S. aid to Pakistan still in America’s hands-Josh Rogin Foreign Policy March 1, 2011

The GAO, of course, notes the need for strong oversight of these funds as also with CRP funding. Will visas be expedited to permit such?

"Asinine comments only illustrate the weakness of your arguments."

Yet you make my point your own. Hardly asinine and all-too-accurate.

"...Involving Pakistan in the training of the Afghan security forces soon after the invasion, obtaining Pakistani opinion about the leadership being put in place in the Afghan government and hearing out their concerns would have been an excellent way to engage Pakistan in the development of Afghanistan. But of course, the above would have only occurred had the US actually wanted to 'help Pakistan'. You laid the groundwork of an anti-Pakistan regime and intelligence service and military..."

I'm sorry but Pakistan would have been a poor fit for such. You were tainted with a legacy of supporting the Afghan taliban. That made you untrustworthy. You did little subsequently to allay those concerns and, instead, lived down that stigma. Civil war shall come when NATO departs and the Russians, Indians and Iranians will then play their role. If things are bad now, brace yourselves as Pakistan's unhelpfulness shall blow back upon you.

"Then a rag tag group of AL Qaeda and the Taliban 'poses no salient threat to the 'nuclear-Armed military and economic might of the US' ..."

Non-state actors, remember? That's where this thread started. To that end, I'd strongly recommend your government heed the original post and restructure your armed forces. You'll need them in ways and means heretofore unimagined.

Thanks.:usflag:
 
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"Chinese officials said last month that export of the reactors to Pakistan would be justified in consideration of political developments in South Asia, including the entry into force of the U.S.–India deal and the NSG exemption for India. Western diplomats said China would not strongly favor an NSG exemption for Pakistan matching India’s because that would not additionally benefit Chinese industry and because Pakistan, compared to India, is a limited nuclear power market with far less infrastructure and far fewer financial resources."

This is a real joke, I just ask a question, the Indian infrastructure market have any meaning to china? China has no real interest in India's infrastructure. financial resources? When did you see china to provide a lot of financing for India ? As for Pakistan, these are just a very small part for all of China's financial loans, but the really critical areas of Pakistan, China will not feel embarrassed in this area.
 
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"Chinese officials said last month that export of the reactors to Pakistan would be justified in consideration of political developments in South Asia, including the entry into force of the U.S.–India deal and the NSG exemption for India. Western diplomats said China would not strongly favor an NSG exemption for Pakistan matching India’s because that would not additionally benefit Chinese industry and because Pakistan, compared to India, is a limited nuclear power market with far less infrastructure and far fewer financial resources."

This is a real joke, I just ask a question, the Indian infrastructure market have any meaning to china? China has no real interest in India's infrastructure. financial resources? When did you see china to provide a lot of financing for India ? As for Pakistan, these are just a very small part for all of China's financial loans, but the really critical areas of Pakistan, China will not feel embarrassed in this area.




In fact, surprisingly, Chinese firms are very active in infrastructure. Their good points, efficiency and cost. Their bad points, very slow responses from HO in China to Indian tenders, or failure to comply with small and detailed regulations, also, complete inability of junior executives to understand what is going on locally. So they need Indian guides at high salaries, an unnecessary cost.

Very active firms are usually in civil engineering and structural engineering, also in steel plant design and supply. They are doing well, and giving European firms a pain in the stomach.

It is clear that we will benefit in India from the efficiency, discipline and cost consciousness of Chinese organisations; it is clear that Chinese organisations are also happy to deal with a rapidly growing economy, one much large than tiny little south-east asian economies. Pakistan is unfortunately a very small economy, much smaller than Chinese businessmen know. Of course, the government and administration of China are very well aware of these things.:what:

Much more cultural understanding is needed.

You know that Chinese students learning an Indian language and living in Kolkata for their training have been taken out formally to mingle with local communities. They are delighted with these visits, including to Hakka Chinese who have lived in Calcutta for three or four generations. Their hosts are also glad to meet these nice young people, and make their visit more interesting; it is not good for them to sit in their rooms all day.

Unfortunately, another segment of very efficient Chinese firms do not play a full role in the economy of India. These are electronics firms, and the leader is Huawei. Sadly, because of the delicate nature of the product and market (telecommunications), it seems better not to allow their participation in sensitive areas.

You will be surprised to know that I am associated as consultant with a Taiwanese firm in security software. No government organisation wants to buy because they are frightened about 'trapdoors'. We may have to do something complicated, like set up an Indian joint venture, which can work on rebuilding technology within India, so that the security people are happy.

We are in a strange world. :what:
 
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You do not understand, JOE, I personally believe that China will not have real action in India's infrastructure. What is the real action for China? such as Pakistan, Brazil, Iran, and so developing countries billions of dollars or even tens of billions of dollars Investment, not some pocket money.
 
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You do not understand, JOE, I personally believe that China will not have real action in India's infrastructure. What is the real action for China? such as Pakistan, Brazil, Iran, and so developing countries billions of dollars or even tens of billions of dollars Investment, not some pocket money.

Ah, I understand, you are saying that the capital amounts are not there, only skills and expertise. Yes, you are right, I misunderstood; the major investment will be in billions and tens of billions; tens of billions is not difficult to imagine considering some sums that have been spent or earmarked for investment in recent months. And China will not wish to dissipate her capital sums in making such investments, when the return on capital employed will be much higher within China itself.

That is a reasonable evaluation, no doubt about it. I personally feel that China will be involved more with the execution side, because she has built up formidable expertise and skills in execution, expertise and skills that are in great demand. Much of the money, the billions and tens of billions, will go to project managers and executors; even without China investing directly, she stands to be a stake-holder and a beneficiary. And India is a much easier market to be active in than Brazil, or Iran, or even Pakistan.

Now I will definitely be suspended!!! ;)
 
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May be you can suggest how you are maintaining a ratio of 1.5:1 (or lesser) with a military budget that is 1/9th.

I can simply point to the rule of thumb to say that these numbers can't be correct and much is being hidden.
I can't say since I don't make the defence budget. Perhaps it is better efficiencies, reliance on locally produced hardware or less expensive imports from China and elsewhere on favorable long term loans. Perhaps some is off set through proceeds from the military run businesses. Whatever it is, it has to be within the total revenues taken in by the State. Fudging a couple of billion rupees here and there is one thing, but hiding hundreds of billions or trillions in revenue and diverting it to the defence budget is an absurd argument. Something like that would imply that the Pakistani economy is much bigger than officially declared, perhaps twice the size of the currently estimated $180 billion GDP.

You have to offer an explanation and justify it as to where this additional revenue is coming from and how it is being hidden.
So nothing but speculation?
Your claim and argument are speculative to begin with, so of course you are going to receive speculative answers in response.
Everything I have read suggests that the nuke programme of your size would cost more than your entire public military budget!

You seem to suggest the military has some means of independent revenue generation, aka the military inc. suggested by Ayesha (?) earlier?

A comparative study of what other countries spend gives a clue that these numbers are just not credible.
Regardless of what you have read, some source of revenue to fund a secretly higher military budget needs to be identified. At the moment the likeliest source appears to be the military run businesses.
 
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....... Whatever it is, it has to be within the total revenues taken in by the State. Judging a couple of billion rupees here and there is one thing, but hiding hundreds of billions or trillions in revenue and diverting it to the defence budget is an absurd argument. Something like that would imply that the Pakistani economy is much bigger than officially declared, perhaps twice the size of the currently estimated $180 billion GDP.

You have to offer an explanation and justify it as to where this additional revenue is coming from and how it is being hidden.

Your claim and argument are speculative to begin with, so of course you are going to receive speculative answers in response.

Regardless of what you have read, some source of revenue to fund a secretly higher military budget needs to be identified. At the moment the loveliest source appears to be the military run businesses.

According to some estimates, the size of the undocumented economy is equal to the official one, so your estimate of twice the $180b declared GDP may not be too far off. Add to that an estimated $15-20 billion of profits from the narcotics trade that are shared between Afghan and Pakistani players involved, and one can easily see where the additional revenues may be generated from.
 
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I can't say since I don't make the defence budget. Perhaps it is better efficiencies, reliance on locally produced hardware or less expensive imports from China and elsewhere on favorable long term loans. Perhaps some is off set through proceeds from the military run businesses. Whatever it is, it has to be within the total revenues taken in by the State. Fudging a couple of billion rupees here and there is one thing, but hiding hundreds of billions or trillions in revenue and diverting it to the defence budget is an absurd argument. Something like that would imply that the Pakistani economy is much bigger than officially declared, perhaps twice the size of the currently estimated $180 billion GDP.

All of that would need substantiation. I don't see how efficiencies can account for such a large difference, don't know any really big ticket hardware that is indigenous in Pakistan that can account for it or even anything explicit that China supplies you anything on other than commercial terms.

You have to offer an explanation and justify it as to where this additional revenue is coming from and how it is being hidden.

Perhaps what Vcheng said makes better sense, can't be sure that the undocumented economy is not estimated while calculating the size of the economy though.

Perhaps it is the military inc. (as mentioned by that lady) cornering a large chunk of the country's economy, proceeds from that narcotics and some funding by foreigners (25% of the budget is what I read some time back) with a quid pro quo, like the current Saudi demands.

Your claim and argument are speculative to begin with, so of course you are going to receive speculative answers in response.

Regardless of what you have read, some source of revenue to fund a secretly higher military budget needs to be identified. At the moment the likeliest source appears to be the military run businesses.

The same as military inc.
 
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If we took the drug trade in retrospect to its potential.. as disgusting as it seems... it has the ability to surpass the total revenue from all other sources of national income.

On topic however.. the Fauj should look into the Air Force's restructuring .. they reduced personnel within a five year period.. whilst increasing capabilities at the same time.
The threat on the east has still been kept in perspective and not compromised upon, but the system has been streamlined.
Unfortunately.. my last meeting with a senior Army officer had him talking of how all the R&R facilities have improved in the army.. and then this chap from Army ADA went on to praise the AF and how it enjoyed an edge over the eastern neighbors AF by splattering disconnected nonsense about OPFOR's equipment.. one would expect somebody in his job to have pertinent and current knowledge of the threats he would be facing. Yet i was left sorely disappointed.. considering he considered his R&R improvement more important than his understanding of a critical aspect(in my view) of his job.

If such cases exist elsewhere..
One should not expect success for too long on any front..
and if success is to come, it will be pyrrhic at best.
 
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faujiHistorian and others

Thank you for the brief summary to the effect that army has to be retooled and this is to be done by decreasing the size of the army --- Once again, you will be doing yourselves a disservice by not reviewing the article in full - I encourage you to review the last couple of paragraphs of the piece by the AVM, something about civilian politicos and the space they seek to create --

Seems to me, or rather it's my reading or understanding of events, that we may be seeing a political scenario in which the armed forces political role will not be, cannot be, as significant as it once was, and that this may be a reflection of a beginning of sorts of evolving paradigm -- We have had Xeric, Yourself and AM offer a variety of objections and "solutions" - again, without (to my thinking) looking at the ideas in the piece as a whole --- There are also suggestion in response to the kinds of thinking represented by S2 that given that there is no "guarantee" on the Eastern border that force levels ought to prevail and possibly increase - One would have thought that the behavior of states is the working "guarantee" between them, but I may be wrong.

Anyway, once again, the ideas presented by the AVM are part of a whole, those who begin to grasp these ideas and begin to plan now for the possible political and fiscal scenario they may face in the coming years, may do the Fauj, Faujis and Pakistan a great service.
 
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According to some estimates, the size of the undocumented economy is equal to the official one, so your estimate of twice the $180b declared GDP may not be too far off. Add to that an estimated $15-20 billion of profits from the narcotics trade that are shared between Afghan and Pakistani players involved, and one can easily see where the additional revenues may be generated from.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that the market capitalization of all the companies in Pakistan is around $30 billion, so I have a feeling that the $180 billion GDP figure already takes into account the undocumented economy, so I doubt it would be double that.
 
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