*** Total GDP Forecast with China's Ranking for 2015 ***

[xunzi]

Every years we add over a trillion dollar to the economy. So technically we make an India every 2-3 years and Japan 3-4 years. That is POWER.

 

[Shotgunner51]

If one day United States turn its mind around, and choose to align with China as British does. The combination of China+United States dominates nearly every field.

That could be true bro in an idealistic case. Note UK has quite different history, economic structure and political system from that of US, so perhaps it's not a close comparison.

However such a chance is remote as long as US is ruled by those who benefit from existing world order. Dollar hegemony, debt-supported GDP, taxation and military spend work in a harmonious cycle. Hear the voice:

Rep. Charles Rangel Again Calls for Military Draft, War Tax​

One can either choose to serve this order, or be an enemy of it.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005921.html
Wartime Origins of Modern Income-Tax Withholding: Newsroom: The Independent Institute
www.nytimes.com/2013/02/11/opinion/a-tax-to-pay-for-war.html
Eisenhower's Military-Industry Complex Warning, 50 Years Later : NPR​

 

[Abacin]

Yes bro, I am also critical to Abenomics, and even more concerned about to where it's leading Japan. I wouldn't underestimate the influence of Washington neocons behind radicalization of geopolitics in Tokyo, since it's in their best interests to steer Japan into collision course with China.

However Japan is far from being irrelevant, in fact I would rate Japan as the second most powerful nation on earth, just as what CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) has done in the 2015 ranking of CNP (Comprehensive National Power). Link: CASS: Comprehensive National Power 2015

One common public myth is about GDP's dominance in national power, but what is GDP? It's one measure of vibrance of economic activities within the geographical borders. Since Plaza Accord in 1985 Japan has been massively investing overseas, making it the largest creditor nation on earth, by now 23 years in a row. While having a "low GDP", huge and ever-expanding international assets continue to serve national interests of Japan. Link: Japan net external assets hit record $3 trln as top creditor nation| Reuters

Another myth is "high government-debt", well I might as well quote a link: The Myth That Japan Is Broke: The World’s Largest “Debtor” Is Now the World’s Largest Creditor

Their financial prowess came from tech reserves, industrial capabilities, I suppose their global leadership in say electronics, semiconductor, nuclear science, rockets, tools, optics, E&M machines, robotics, materials science, heavy industries, etc., are obvious.

Strategic reserves, we may dig deeper and see. Imperial Japan, so was Nazi Germany, were destined to loose from day one, I don't think people make the same mistake twice.​

As I have described in another thread, the international "food chain" is like a banker (with armed guards, of course) on the top reaping the ultimate fruits, industrial-capitalists in the second league, resources-rich lucky ones in the third, and then the rest of miserable. Japan is at the top within the second league, along with say Germany. It's time to move beyond GDP myth, it isn't even fair to compare a continental-sized ancient civilization to an archipelago-sized country, let' be pragmatic to analyze facts, and move on to catching up with Japan in the real terms.

This is also a myth. One example is Toyota. If you treat it as a Japanese company, then you can say Japan has a large foreign investment; but if you treat it as a United States company, then United States has a large foreign investment. For private companies, the headquarters, the board members etc. can change easily. Just as HSBC. For Toyota, even though it is treated as a Japanese company, it listens more to US government since it has a larger market and manufacturing base in United States. The investment of a private company, does not necessarily belong to a country. Companies are more and more shared by countries. The government which it listens to matters. When Japan goes bankrupt, private companies will not pay for Japan and instead they may become foreign companies.

But this usually doesn't happen to state owned companies. That's why United States want to minimize the role of state owned companies in TPP because this affects the control of private companies by United States though its power, market and technologies. Many countries also set up sovereign funds to control private companies.

 

[vtnsx]

Good times to rob China.

 

[Abacin]

This is why the status of reserve currency is very important. Most private companies and rich personals like to park their money and align their interests with the reserve currency. United states may have a lot of debts and trade deficits. But inflow of wealth through wealth parking can balance a big chunk.

Can people in big cities live in big house..?
It's right for town and small cities :p

Yes. Many people have two houses. One small house in big city while one large house in neighboring towns. This is the case for both China and United States. Actually many Koreans have a small house in Korea and a big house in neighboring Chinese provinces. China could earn many foreign currencies if there would be property taxes for foreigners.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

That's why United States want to minimize the role of state owned companies in TPP because this affects the control of private companies by United States though its power, market and technologies. Many countries also set up sovereign funds to control private companies.

I think it is more because State owned companies have unlimited deep pockets. This allows them to spend more on R&D than their incoming revenue allows. They can sell cheaper and wipe out their competitors without worry about insolvency.

 

[Shotgunner51]

But this usually doesn't happen to state owned companies. That's why United States want to minimize the role of state owned companies in TPP because this affects the control of private companies by United States though its power, market and technologies. Many countries also set up sovereign funds to control private companies.

Very well said. Given China's different political system, US wouldn't even trust private companies like SANY, let alone the massive Sovereign Welfare Funds who are aggressively taking over asset management roles from more defensive PBoC.

Obama blocks Chinese wind farm over national security
Chinese Economy News & Updates | Page 378 post #5663

 

[Abacin]

I think it is more because State owned companies have unlimited deep pockets. This allows them to spend more on R&D than their incoming revenue allows. They can sell cheaper and wipe out their competitors without worry about insolvency.

Your thinking is based on the assumption of free market and the sole distribution of wealth by money. Instead, power is as crucial as money in the wealth distribution. This is why US wants a strong military presence worldwide, which could affect the wealth distribution worldwide. Iran and North Korea are examples. This US power prohibits many countries from doing business with Iran and North Korea. The poorness of North Korea has a strong correlation with the collapse of Soviet Union and the expansion of US power.

 

[Shotgunner51]

East Coast of China kept to be richest in East Asia. In about 10-20 years, East Coast of China will be definitely richer than Japan, which is historical normal.

Coming from the Eastern seaboard, Shanghai to be exact, so far I am pleased. The Middle Kingdom is an ancient civilization, this path of resurgence back to normal will take some time, with the right efforts it could be faster.

Our eyes are only on United States.

Sadly but true. It isn't about the average American, the taxpayers, the drafted young men or women, but those who rule Washington and Wall Street, those who profit from tension, chaos, hegemony & wars. They are the mortal enemy.

Saudi Arabia announces 20% defence budget increase
IMF: Saudi going bankrupt in 5 years
McCain: NATO allies must spend 2 percent of GDP on defense | TheHill

 

[Martian2]

Japan's gdp in 2012 was that hugh because it was trading 80 yen to 1 dollar.

Now it is 120 yen for 1 dollar. If your currency fell 50% in value, your nominal GDP should drop 33% in value.

The long term problems for Japan is population implosion, ratio of old to young people, national debt, dead electronics industry, rising commodity price.

It is still a relevant economic power, but not the juggernaut that was king of automobile/electronics/technology it once was in the 80s, 90s.

The biggest change is that Japan used to run huge trade surpluses in the 1980s.

Today, Japan is running huge trade deficits.

Thus, Japan's currency is depreciating to reflect the new reality.

Japan is being outcompeted by China (e.g. Huawei, Lenovo, Xiaomi, etc.), Taiwan (e.g. TSMC, MediaTek, ASE, Largan, etc.), and South Korea (e.g. Samsung, LG, etc.).

Citation (USA Today): Japan logs record $134B trade deficit in FY 2013

 

[liall]

China has overtaken Canada to be the biggest trading partner of USA. Imagine if India could do the same amount of trading with China like USA does. Could probably add 100s of billions of dollars to GDP of both countries.

 

[Ifteqar Aisan]

Yes bro, I am also critical to Abenomics, and even more concerned about to where it's leading Japan. I wouldn't underestimate the influence of Washington neocons behind radicalization of geopolitics in Tokyo, since it's in their best interests to steer Japan into collision course with China.

However Japan is far from being irrelevant, in fact I would rate Japan as the second most powerful nation on earth, just as what CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) has done in the 2015 ranking of CNP (Comprehensive National Power). Link

One common public myth is about GDP's dominance in national power, but what is GDP? It's one measure of vibrance of economic activities within the geographical borders. Since Plaza Accord in 1985 Japan has been massively investing overseas, making it the largest creditor nation on earth, by now 23 years in a row. While having a "low GDP", huge and ever-expanding international assets continue to serve national interests of Japan. Link:

Another myth is "high government-debt", well I might as well quote a link:

Their financial prowess came from tech reserves, industrial capabilities, I suppose their global leadership in say electronics, semiconductor, nuclear science, rockets, tools, optics, E&M machines, robotics, materials science, heavy industries, etc., are obvious.

Strategic reserves, we may dig deeper and see. Imperial Japan, so was Nazi Germany, were destined to loose from day one, I don't think people make the same mistake twice.​

As I have described in another thread, the international "food chain" is like a banker (with armed guards, of course) on the top reaping the ultimate fruits, industrial-capitalists in the second league, resources-rich lucky ones in the third, and then the rest of miserable. Japan is at the top within the second league, along with say Germany. It's time to move beyond GDP myth, it isn't even fair to compare a continental-sized ancient civilization to an archipelago-sized country, let' be pragmatic to analyze facts, and move on to catching up with Japan in the real terms.

Honest and incisive analysis.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Honest and incisive analysis.

Thanks, just sharing facts, which I need to see clearly, because I am a firm opposer of Imperial-Militarism.

 

[anon45]

If one day United States turn its mind around, and choose to align with China as British does. The combination of China+United States dominates nearly every field.

I had hopes for that with Russia back in the Medvedev days, well no one can blame a guy for dreaming...

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

This US power prohibits many countries from doing business with Iran and North Korea. The poorness of North Korea has a strong correlation with the collapse of Soviet Union and the expansion of US power.

So China is basically helpless when it comes to North Korea's well being.