*** Total GDP Forecast with China's Ranking for 2015 ***

[Jlaw]

I read somewhere, once Japan dominated Asian trade by some 35% while it is down to 12% these days.

China's share, on the other, has risen to 46% of all trade made in Asia.

That shows the huge difference in economies of scale.

What is more interesting, militarization seems not to be adding positively to economic vitality. And Abenomics cannot stop the slide in manufacturing and exports despite of Yen undervalued and QE.

China should encourage Japan to militarize more. I see a militarize Japan an opportunity for China and possible headache for US.

Japan still has a per capita income 5 times more than China. It is quite possible that China may never ever reach Japans per capita income level.

China doesn't need to reach nominal GDP per capita with japan or US in order to be a developed country.

 

[Ifteqar Aisan]

The biggest change is that Japan used to run huge trade surpluses in the 1980s.

Today, Japan is running huge trade deficits.

Thus, Japan's currency is depreciating to reflect the new reality.

Japan is being outcompeted by China (e.g. Huawei, Lenovo, Xiaomi, etc.), Taiwan (e.g. TSMC, MediaTek, ASE, Largan, etc.), and South Korea (e.g. Samsung, LG, etc.).

Trade is just one aspect. The outcome of global economy will be decided by who controls finance, investment and technology. Advanced countries like US, Germany and Japan are exiting the race to export and are now busy carving up genetics, robotics and nanotechnology. Advances in these fields and control over IP will decide who reigns supreme.

China is, of course, making reasonable headway in this regard, but please keep in mind that the Chinese approach of copying and IP theft may backfire spectacularly. It is all fine as long as the latest innovation can be reverse-engineered rapidly, but future trade and economic regimes may put an end to all this. More specifically, WIPO may raise the stakes in such a way that China will be excluded from all but the most primitive markets.

Relying on Western/Japanese interest in manufacturing bases in China is also misplaced. With increased automation, factories can and will be opened anywhere. A greater diffusion in manufacturing is taking place which China's economies of scale may not be able to resist. Chinese companies themselves are embracing automation at a rapid rate. Overseas companies can use robots to make stuff anywhere they wish.

These are all factors to be considered before triumphalism sets in.

 

[tranquilium]

We India has the highest PPP. PPP is much accurate than GDP.
You should focus more on how to increase your PPP like how Modiji is doing.


No, our PPP is already 8 trillion dollar, but we have less people.

List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

China's PPP is the highest in the world, at 18 trillion. The second place is US at 17 trillion. India has 7.5 trillion and growing at a significantly slower rate than China.

Good times to rob China.

Which would require you to achieve one of the following:
1. Militarily getting through PLA, one of the most advanced conventional force on earth on top of its nuclear capacity.
2. Economically getting through the Chinese government, a political entity with one of the best direct control over its economic activity on the planet.

Good luck on that.

 

[tranquilium]

So China is basically helpless when it comes to North Korea's well being.

Nah, it mostly comes from the fact that North Korea sided with USSR against China from 1960s to the collapse of USSR. While China can certainly pull North Korea out of poverty. What is actually the point of doing so? The Kims are not going to grateful and they have already stabbed China in the back once.

 

[vtnsx]

List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

China's PPP is the highest in the world, at 18 trillion. The second place is US at 17 trillion. India has 7.5 trillion and growing at a significantly slower rate than China.



Which would require you to achieve one of the following:
1. Militarily getting through PLA, one of the most advanced conventional force on earth on top of its nuclear capacity.
2. Economically getting through the Chinese government, a political entity with one of the best direct control over its economic activity on the planet.

Good luck on that.

The same thing that was said about the great wall of China. It was great until Genghis Khan walked over it.

 

[tranquilium]

The same thing that was said about the great wall of China. It was great until Genghis Khan walked over it.

You do realize that most of the great wall is built more than a century AFTER Genghis Khan's time right?

 

[vtnsx]

You do realize that most of the great wall is built more than a century AFTER Genghis Khan's time right?

Great wall was before and after Genghis Khan. My point was how big and long of a wall can you really stretch? There's no need for a damn wall in the first place. If someone want to invade you, they will, simple as that. There's no walls in the world that can prevent anything for long. Like you were saying earlier

"1. Militarily getting through PLA, one of the most advanced conventional force on earth on top of its nuclear capacity.
2. Economically getting through the Chinese government, a political entity with one of the best direct control over its economic activity on the planet."

That's another example of a wall. In your "opinion" this wall is referring to human shields and nuclear forces. You may have the human capacity but anyone could make or could obtain nuclear weapons. It's easier to kill 1000 people than 10 people in a 10 square km radius. I would recommend China's retreat and go back to its homeland and respect thy neighbors and boundaries.

If China wants to commit suicide on its population, than be it. Maybe your people don't appreciate or value life as a gift. You need to look into yoru leaders for answer and ask yourself this question "is it fair?" Japan is a great example of that.

 

[tranquilium]

Great wall was before and after Genghis Khan. My point was how big and long of a wall can you really stretch? There's no need for a damn wall in the first place. If someone want to invade you, they will, simple as that. There's no walls in the world that can prevent anything for long. Like you were saying earlier

"1. Militarily getting through PLA, one of the most advanced conventional force on earth on top of its nuclear capacity.
2. Economically getting through the Chinese government, a political entity with one of the best direct control over its economic activity on the planet."

That's another example of a wall. In your "opinion" this wall is referring to human shields and nuclear forces. You may have the human capacity but anyone could make or could obtain nuclear weapons. It's easier to kill 1000 people than 10 people in a 10 square km radius. I would recommend China's retreat and go back to its homeland and respect thy neighbors and boundaries.

If China wants to commit suicide on its population, than be it. Maybe your people don't appreciate or value life as a gift. You need to look into yoru leaders for answer and ask yourself this question "is it fair?" Japan is a great example of that.

Well, considering the entire Europe at the time was really into building the castle and fortification deployment remain a cornerstone of modern military tactic, I have to disagree with your no need for a wall, but that is not the point.

Did you just preached about valuing the life of your citizens when you are proposing to "rob" a nuclear power? Seriously?

 

[vtnsx]

Well, considering the entire Europe at the time was really into building the castle and fortification deployment remain a cornerstone of modern military tactic, I have to disagree with your no need for a wall, but that is not the point.

Did you just preached about valuing the life of your citizens when you are proposing to "rob" a nuclear power? Seriously?

Maybe I do, maybe I don't but the point is, it is not worth human lives over something our leaders want unless it absolutely make sense. Having walls can slow your enemies but it doesn't mean that's a guarantee thing. Just saying.

 

[tranquilium]

Maybe I do, maybe I don't but the point is, it is not worth human lives over something our leaders want unless it absolutely make sense. Having walls can slow your enemies but it doesn't mean that's a guarantee thing. Just saying.

Nobody ever said it is a guarantee, war, after all, is fought by human beings and at the end of the day, human beings are the ultimate decider of the outcome. Again, all this is irrelevant to the conversation. Good luck trying to rob a nuclear nation with one of the best control of its economy.

 

[vtnsx]

Nobody ever said it is a guarantee, war, after all, is fought by human beings and at the end of the day, human beings are the ultimate decider of the outcome. Again, all this is irrelevant to the conversation. Good luck trying to rob a nuclear nation with one of the best control of its economy.

Lmao, you really take the word "rob" literally. I'm using it in a different context. Thanks for the luck, I don't think I'll need it.

 

[Nan Yang]

Great wall was before and after Genghis Khan. My point was how big and long of a wall can you really stretch? There's no need for a damn wall in the first place. If someone want to invade you, they will, simple as that. There's no walls in the world that can prevent anything for long. Like you were saying earlier

China have been fighting numerous Northern nomadic tribes for thousands of years. More then all other civilizations combined. As early as the Spring and Autumn period over 800 years BC, when China was made up numerous states they have been fighting these nomadic barbarians. And they all found that building walls was the only way to fight nomadic tribes. There IS no other way. Nomadic tribes are all cavalry. Northern China are vast grassland.

 

[Huan]

China = one of the oldest civilizations = to become the biggest economic power on Earth. Yes?
The Chinese have a special unique destiny to impact the world with its growing weight in many categories.

 

[oproh]

Looks like japan needs more of abenomics in the future, right @Nihonjin1051 ?

 

[AndrewJin]

Looks like japan needs more of abenomics in the future, right @Nihonjin1051 ?

Maybe a little Modinomics.