China Economy Forum

[Raphael]

It's suspicious that the GDP revision comes from a study authored by the CSIS, one of the main China-containment thinktanks in the US.

My opinion of economic matters is we should always keep our head down and adopt a low profile. If you can feel the fruits of our economic progress in your next paycheck, or the increasing quality and quantity of goods and services you can buy, that's already enough proof. No need to boast about it to foreigners. In fact, if they are kept in the dark, even better.

 

[badguy2000]

America spends way too much in medicine, but their life expectancy is that long.
Efficiency matters, but it is not considered in GDP.

View attachment 260262

Medical care serice in USA is terrorblly overpriced in USA . It is most low quality among west countries. So is the lawsuit service in USA.
BTW ,

 

[Dungeness]

America spends way too much in medicine, but their life expectancy is that long.
Efficiency matters, but it is not considered in GDP.

View attachment 260262

Sorry for the people of India, now they can't even eat meat. Their life expectancy maybe even lower.

 

[TaiShang]

It's suspicious that the GDP revision comes from a study authored by the CSIS, one of the main China-containment thinktanks in the US.

My opinion of economic matters is we should always keep our head down and adopt a low profile. If you can feel the fruits of our economic progress in your next paycheck, or the increasing quality and quantity of goods and services you can buy, that's already enough proof. No need to boast about it to foreigners. In fact, if they are kept in the dark, even better.

Second that statement.

In the final analysis, China is still a developing nation. It will stay this way as long as geopolitically convenient.

中秋節快樂 !!!

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Let's not become Indianize. Let's wait and see.

同樂！

Sorry for the people of India, now they can't even eat meat. Their life expectancy maybe even lower.

@Hu Songshan
@waz
@Icarus

 

[AndrewJin]

Second that statement.

In the final analysis, China is still a developing nation. It will stay this way as long as geopolitically convenient.

中秋節快樂 !!!

同樂！

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Oh..Dont post such thing!!
Dont feel well...

 

[Shotgunner51]

There's a problem in the current calculation of services. Per capita nominal GDP for an American is seven times higher than a Chinese.

An American truck driver is currently valued 7 times more than his Chinese counterpart.

Similarly, an American teacher counts 7 times as much in services than his/her Chinese counterpart.

An American railway person is paid 7 times as much as his Chinese counterpart.

Who believes that Americans engaged in the service sector should be counted 7 times more towards nominal GDP?

You can't argue that an American is seven times more productive than his/her Chinese counterpart.
An American teacher does not teach 7 times more pupils.

The only conclusion that you can draw is that there is a flaw in measuring the service economies of the United States and China. Since the service economies cannot be accurately compared to one another, it is better to just throw out the service sectors and look strictly at the real Chinese and US economies.

Good points made bro! Yes if only real economy is taken into account then the picture may look quite different. On under-accounting of services, well it's hard to track the financials, say if barber shops keep their books off the tax/bank grids, you know what I mean.

Anyway let's stay pragmatic, let statisticians or journalists play with numbers, and continue to move forward on industrialization/trade!

Second that statement.

In the final analysis, China is still a developing nation. It will stay this way as long as geopolitically convenient.

中秋節快樂 !!!

Yup +1 here, whatever geopolitically convenient!

兄弟们中秋快乐!!

 

[Bilal.]

And about the same time China will not be the mist populous nation anymore.

 

[Tiger Genie]

This (China's nominal GDP growth) is to be expected given population, resources and industrial policy. OTOH the US industrial policy in many cases has become very much safety and environmental balanced and combined with the labor law requirements, continues to be significantly more expensive to operate in than China. BTW I am not sure necessarily whether that is such a bad thing.

To me the next interesting points will be:

1) when does Chinese economy become more internal consumption heavier and
2) when that happens, will they be able to )or how long) sustain the lower cost environment

The same phases will be reached by India a bit soon after that at which point I won't be surprised at all (say around 2045-2050) USA once again becomes a lower or comparably lower cost manufacturing destination!

 

[Shotgunner51]

Countries rich in natural resources (e.g. oil, gas, uranium) or rich in trade surpluses (e.g. high value-add industrial merchandise, high value-add services) may accumulate large amount of Forex Reserves. However while managing Forex Reserves is usually "defensive", assets separated from balance sheets of Central Banks (e.g. People's Bank of China; PBOC) can be managed in a more balanced manner, here we go the Sovereign Welfare Funds (SWF's).

Forex Reserves By Country

China has been experiencing record level trade surpluses over the years, however the Forex Reserves is currently maintained at the level of US$ 3.77 trillion (Mainland only; Excluding Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau):

Sovereign Welfare Funds By Country

Relative to a steady level of Forex Reserves, China has been building SWF's progressively. It's believed much studies have been done on Singaporean model i.e. GIC, Temasek. By now there are a few Chinese SWF's at the moment e.g. CIC, SAFE, total assets exceeds US$ 1.53 trillion. Hong Kong SAR has its own SWF, asset value now at around US$ 400 billion (0.4 trillion).

Sovereign Welfare Funds Ranking

For details of individual SWF in China and across the world, please check the following link:

Sovereign Wealth Fund Rankings | Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute

Comparison & Trends:

• Note that in cases of financial powers like Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, their SWFs are larger than FX Reserves

• In Singapore's case the ratio is more than 2 times ($537 billion vs $250 billion). For Norway, UAE, almost entire assets are on SWF.

• China's SWF are expected to be fast growing while FX Reserves will maintain at current level, and become one primary vehicle for international investment.

@AndrewJin @Martian2 @Chinese-Dragon

 

[powastick]

Where is India's sovereign wealth fund?

 

[Shotgunner51]

Where is India's sovereign wealth fund?

Sorry there is none.

It would be difficult for countries with tight financial resources, say trade deficit countries, or debtor nations.

India regrettably is both.

 

[AndrewJin]

Singapore's SWF is very successful.
We must learn from Singaporean Chinese how it works.

Sorry there is none.

It would be difficult for countries with tight financial resources, say trade deficit countries, or debtor nations.

India regrettably is both.

I have a question, how do they maintain their economy with such huge trade deficit?
@Bussard Ramjet @Echo_419

 

[Shotgunner51]

Singapore's SWF is very successful.
We must learn from Singaporean Chinese how it works.
@Bussard Ramjet @Echo_419

Yes Singapore's model is very successful in managing a huge asset (FX $250 billion + SWF $538 billion = $788 billion), something China has studied for years. Their professionals like Miss Ho Ching (CEO of Temasek), Mr. Lim Siong Guan (Chairman of GIC) as well as many senior executives of GIC have given valuable advices to China government in constructing SWF's.

Now China just mainland alone has a tremendous asset (FX $3,771 billion + SWF $1,535 billion = $5,306 billion) to manage, let alone Greater China (Hong Kong, Taiwan & Macau) combined (over $6,480 billion). China will continue to build SWF's, while doing so let's continue to deepen collaboration with Singaporean Chinese and other professionals in the Greater China region.

Hope China mainland's (and that of HK) experience can also be shared with Taiwan, South Korea, when they are ready to construct SWF!