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Time To Wake India Up: The Probability Of War With China Is Now Close To The 50 Per Cent Mark

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The chances of war are now inching towards the 50 per cent mark from where it will become inevitable.

India has to accelerate its preparation for war, and also prepare the people for it.

The Nifty should wait for clearer signals that war is off the table before heading for the 10,000-mark and higher peaks.



Barring a few isolated voices of caution, there seems to a benign assumption in the commentariat and the Indian media that China will not risk a war over the Dokhlam standoff, where the Dragon was surprised by India’s unexpected decision to stare it down. Let’s not forget that the Dragon is breathing fire repeatedly, and at some point it may be forced by its own rhetoric to make good on its threats.

Even though the Indian Army is digging in for a long eyeball-to-eyeball situation and even a short war, the rest of India continues to live in la-la land, with the stock exchanges hitting new peaks. The Nation Stock Exchange’s Nifty crossed the 10,000-mark for the first time yesterday (25 July), when it should actually be pencilling in a war threat to the economy in the short- to medium-term. It should hold its exuberance for some time later this year.

Hope is now building around the visit of National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval’s visit to Beijing for attending a BRICS summit of NSAs, but this is unlikely to result in any immediate cooling of tensions.

The reality is that neither India nor China can afford to back down. That means war remains a strong possibility.

What can Doval offer China that will force the Dragon to pull back from the brink of war and war rhetoric? At best he can offer face-savers to allow China to get out of the corner it has painted itself into. The question is whether China will accept these face-savers.

And what could these face-savers be? They could include a new tripartite panel to deal with Bhutan-Sikkim-Tibet tri-junction demarcation, the promise of more business for Chinese infrastructure companies using the huge trade surpluses that China currently generates, a lowering of India’s opposition to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as long as this does not include the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which transgresses into the parts of Kashmir now in Pakistani control, etc.

India cannot offer more, for once it does that, it would mean acquiescing in Chinese attempts to nibble away territories without any war. Its strategy of intimidation and war rhetoric would have won, sending a chilling message of Indian pusillanimity when it comes to dealing with that bully.

The face-savers we can conceivably offer will simply not be enough, for China could possibly have got these concessions even without raising temperatures over the Dokhlam Plateau.

The possibility of war thus needs to be analysed from the Chinese side. Having upped the ante, it is more than likely that China cannot back down from its position on Dokhlam without emboldening all the other countries that it has border problems with.

The presumption on the Indian side is that any war, whether lasting two weeks or even a month, will do China’s international position more damage and hence it will not push us too far. But this is not how the Chinese behave. Unlike democracies, which worry about economic losses in the pursuit of geopolitical and military power, China always seems willing to endanger short-term economic gains in the pursuit of long-term military supremacy.

In fact, in the current Dokhlam standoff, not going to war may seem like a loss to the generals and Xi Jinping backers, since it will damage China’s credibility as a country that backs intimidation with real military might, with a willingness to use it. Threats and intimidation are of no use if they are not actually made good on once in a while.

The argument inside China may thus be tilting towards the inevitability of a short war, even if it is not going to result in any major gains on the ground. A war validates its war rhetoric of the last month. A China that will go to war sends its own message to smaller nations, and that message may be more important than the damage it could cause to existing relationships in Asia.

If I were a betting man, I would not bet on Doval coming back with a “peace in our time” smile. The chances of war are now inching towards the 50 per cent mark from where it will become inevitable.

India has to accelerate its preparation for war, and also prepare the people for it. The Nifty should wait for clearer signals that war is off the table before heading for the 10,000-mark and higher peaks.


https://swarajyamag.com/world/time-...th-china-is-now-close-to-the-50-per-cent-mark



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For the first time, India is militarily engaging a state actor — and one no less than China — from the soil of a third country. Second, it is militarily intervening on behalf of a third country to uphold the latter’s claims of sovereignty to a patch of territory that it does not effectively control. Not even the US military extends defense obligations to disputed territories that its allies do not exercise effective control over — let alone intervene on their behalf. Third, the China–India–Bhutan boundary is not the only unresolved tri-junction along the length of India’s extended northern frontier. Payback by China to india in the same coin would be highly brackish.
 
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For the first time, India is militarily engaging a state actor — and one no less than China — from the soil of a third country. Second, it is militarily intervening on behalf of a third country to uphold the latter’s claims of sovereignty to a patch of territory that it does not effectively control. Not even the US military extends defense obligations to disputed territories that its allies do not exercise effective control over — let alone intervene on their behalf. Third, the China–India–Bhutan boundary is not the only unresolved tri-junction along the length of India’s extended northern frontier. Payback by China to india in the same coin would be highly brackish.
So you are basically admitting that Pakistan is not capable of holding on to Kashmir and GB, so let's bring panda army in?

Nice one
 
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We need a clear and present danger to push our military to start seeking Indian firms to help shore up the defense.

Nothing like the threat of war to push the defence industries forward. Let the games being. :tup:
 
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The operative part..

India has to accelerate its preparation for war, and also prepare the people for it. The Nifty should wait for clearer signals that war is off the table before heading for the 10,000-mark and higher peaks.
 
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China has been expanding its reach all throughout Asia Pacific region ++. Doklam is not an isolated incident.China got strategic momentum.

Only a day before, Chinese daily /Global Times/ ran an editorial targeting NSA Doval and how he is the main schemer. It spoke of how no resolution should be expected till India withdraw its troops.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi also waded into the debate and said: "The rights and wrongs are very clear and even senior Indian officials have openly stated that Chinese troops did not enter into the Indian territory."

"In other words, the Indian side admitted to entering the Chinese territory. The solution to this problem is very simple: conscientiously withdraw," he said. That such statements are being made as Doval travels to Beijing is being seen as a very clear escalation from the Chinese side.

Before Doval, it was Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj who got caught in the crosshairs of the Chinese media, who called her a liar for her statement in Parliament where she had asked for a mutual withdrawal as a solution to the standoff.

I guess, war premise is inevitable.
 
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While there are voices in Bhutan which highlight negative issues related to the ‘Indian presence’ and the impact that development cooperation between India and Bhutan is having on the Bhutanese economy, ecology and society, there is also wariness about the nature and vision of cooperation that the kingdom will share with India in the near future. So, The boundary dispute between China and Bhutan does not stop at the north-west sector and the implications it has for India’s Siliguri corridor (or ‘chicken’s neck’) but has strategic ramifications for Bhutan too. This is because China has been claiming parts of Arunachal Pradesh, which includes Tawang, close to the borders of Bhutan in the east.
 
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So you are basically admitting that Pakistan is not capable of holding on to Kashmir and GB, so let's bring panda army in?

Nice one
pakistan is more than capable and your field commanders know this and that's why you dare not cross the LOC (except your Bollywood drama ofcourse). regarding the panda army ..... well I guess the panda will throw bananas at your monkeys (Hanuman)
 
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War seems unlikely but this incident ....if it prolong for few months...will help India policy makers to prepare Indians in true sense to see China and anything Chinese as its enemy number 1. China will replace Pakistan from the Indian discourse and this will be the best thing to happen.
1) People / Industry will be forced to use anything Chinese and Make In India will truly kick off ( products will be costly but Indians will wake up from there slumber and use their Zugaad to kick start the real future of India's growth.
2) World will know the arrival of Secular and Democratic India as the true counter weight of Communist and Dictatorian China. Whole Asia, especially , small countries will be happy to see China getting bogged down with India and the Chinese steam in South China sea and elsewhere will be off.
 
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China has been expanding its reach all throughout Asia Pacific region ++. Doklam is not an isolated incident.China got strategic momentum.

Only a day before, Chinese daily /Global Times/ ran an editorial targeting NSA Doval and how he is the main schemer. It spoke of how no resolution should be expected till India withdraw its troops.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi also waded into the debate and said: "The rights and wrongs are very clear and even senior Indian officials have openly stated that Chinese troops did not enter into the Indian territory."

"In other words, the Indian side admitted to entering the Chinese territory. The solution to this problem is very simple: conscientiously withdraw," he said. That such statements are being made as Doval travels to Beijing is being seen as a very clear escalation from the Chinese side.

Before Doval, it was Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj who got caught in the crosshairs of the Chinese media, who called her a liar for her statement in Parliament where she had asked for a mutual withdrawal as a solution to the standoff.

I guess, war premise is inevitable.
Reminds me of the pre-WW1 condition!!!! All powers got ready for a war to settle the "issues" and show the other folks their "right places"!!!! Even though there was a tremendous level of economic interdependence and Europeans folks were traveling quite frequently in different countries, it didn't stop them to fighting one another out!!!! Great powers, unfortunately, don't get dissuaded so early in the game - they want to get to the finish-line, i.e, the "total war"!!!!! Let the saner heads prevail...
 
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