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Tigris Shield Peace Operation Updates & Discussions

kartal1 said:
I don't think Turkey will sacrifice its relationship to Iran. Those Iranian backed militias will be a big threat to Iraq in the future. If As Sadr do like I expect and you say (get close to GCC) we could even see a new Iraqi civil war. I don't like how it sounds but we can get use of a such situation if we play our cards well. Iraq is not fully in our side right now. For them to be fully on our side we must sacrifice relation to KRG and they to sacrifice their relation to PUK and PKK. I don't see it happen anytime soon. This cycle can only stop if we take our position towards the Turkmens like we are supposed and fight both KDP and PKK. I say we would favor from a civil war because of that scenario but if there is other way I would certainly choose it. Lets see if we can get some positive moves from Sadr.
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The civil war scenario is a bit too "Apocalyptic" and it wouldn't be good for Turkey... tbh it's the worst scenario for TR... Civil war mean "No more Boundaries" therefore Every militia/Group/tribe or whatever who want to fight TR will be able to do so.
You can say, TR can also retaliate or close her border...but it will be a bit like Syria... minus the "Border wall as a security check"
The US-RU-EU etc... will be in it... and all the "Political" play that comes with it...

TR relation with IRan will put her in difficult position if TR keep swimming in those waters... So will see how the future behave... In the End, it's just a "maybe". So let's not get carried away...
 
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HannibalBarca said:
The civil war scenario is a bit too "Apocalyptic" and it wouldn't be good for Turkey... tbh it's the worst scenario for TR... Civil war mean "No more Boundaries" therefore Every militia/Group/tribe or whatever who want to fight TR will be able to do so.
You can say, TR can also retaliate or close her border...but it will be a bit like Syria... minus the "Border wall as a security check"
The US-RU-EU etc... will be in it... and all the "Political" play that comes with it...

TR relation with IRan will put her in difficult position if TR keep swimming in those waters... So will see how the future behave... In the End, it's just a "maybe". So let's not get carried away...
Click to expand...
With such scenario we can intervene deep into North Iraqi territory on behalf the Turkmen and establish strong presence there. We can buy North Iraq for the Turkmens. Like we do in ES, OB and Idlib areas.
 
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kartal1 said:
With such scenario we can intervene deep into North Iraqi territory on behalf the Turkmen and establish strong presence there. We can buy North Iraq for the Turkmens. Like we do in ES, OB and Idlib areas.
Click to expand...
Well, Syria is not the same... and even in Syria, such "Presence" is also thanks to International Powers, like Russia, and External Threat like ISIS.

Therefore, Intervention into Iraq, without any "International" Power backing it or supporting it...it will be a simple "Land Grab/ Invasion". And under this type of action, TR could be isolated, whatever regionally and Internationally, Since we are talking about Iraq...

You may have "Turkmens" backing you, but at this stage Everyone around TR will be hostile... Whatever it's Russia/Iran/US/Arabs/Europe and even China...

So, if you think such actions is "Interesting" for TR future, then all is ok...
 
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HannibalBarca said:
Well, Syria is not the same... and even in Syria, such "Presence" is also thanks to International Powers, like Russia, and External Threat like ISIS.

Therefore, Intervention into Iraq, without any "International" Power backing it or supporting it...it will be a simple "Land Grab/ Invasion". And under this type of action, TR could be isolated, whatever regionally and Internationally, Since we are talking about Iraq...

You may have "Turkmens" backing you, but at this stage Everyone around TR will be hostile... Whatever it's Russia/Iran/US/Arabs/Europe and even China...
Click to expand...
We were counting on International backing in Syria because we didn't acted on time while we could acted before Russian or American troops to be stationed. In Iraq when our Turkmens are oppressed we can act beside them and invest, build in their regions while keeping them secure. When millions of Iraqi citizens start to ask Turkey for refugee then we can secure their areas and keeping them live there while establishing ourselves in all spheres. We can do that we didn't when ISIS took Tal Afar and Mosul while Iraqis were running away.
 
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kartal1 said:
We were counting on International backing in Syria because we didn't acted on time while we could acted before Russian or American troops to be stationed. In Iraq when our Turkmens are oppressed we can act beside them and invest, build in their regions while keeping them secure. When millions of Iraqi citizens start to ask Turkey for refugee then we can secure their areas and keeping them live there while establishing ourselves in all spheres. We can do that we didn't when ISIS took Tal Afar and Mosul while Iraqis were running away.
Click to expand...

The thing is your a putting too much faith into "Turkmens"...
And in North Iraq, whatever it's Mosul region/Erbil etc... Those people still see themselves as "Iraqis" and quite Patriotic.

So, giving Aid and Protection to a population is one thing, but Using your Army to "create" a full fledge Force that is against Iraqi Gov is another thing. Such thing could backfire. Since you will get an Iraqi Army vs a TR army, and at this stage ppl will choose... and the Q is... Where will the majority lean to... Are you sure they will take Arms with you? or at least stay silent?
 
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HannibalBarca said:
The thing is your a putting too much faith into "Turkmens"...
And in North Iraq, whatever it's Mosul region/Erbil etc... Those people still see themselves as "Iraqis" and quite Patriotic.

So, giving Aid and Protection to a population is one thing, but Using your Army to "create" a full fledge Force that is against Iraqi Gov is another thing. Such thing could backfire. Since you will get an Iraqi Army vs a TR army, and at this stage ppl will choose... and the Q is... Where will the majority lean to... Are you sure they will take Arms with you? or at least stay silent?
Click to expand...
The problem is not we were counting to much on them but they were counting to much on us. We put them down. In the past there were works for the creating of such force and Turkey have very deep experience in such things in multiple ex soviet countries known and unknown. I am not sure of the outcome of the work but it seems it is non active these days for some reason. There are still our men there also our special services are all over the place. The Turkmen in Iraq are waiting such an opportunity for very long time and while we were letting them down they had to work with Hashdi Shaabi. I am sure that they will never turn us down while I am not sure for the opposite.
 
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kartal1 said:
The problem is not we were counting to much on them but they were counting to much on us. We put them down. In the past there were works for the creating of such force and Turkey have very deep experience in such things in multiple ex soviet countries known and unknown. I am not sure of the outcome of the work but it seems it is non active these days for some reason. There are still our men there also our special services are all over the place. The Turkmen in Iraq are waiting such an opportunity for very long time and while we were letting them down they had to work with Hashdi Shaabi. I am sure that they will never turn us down while I am not sure for the opposite.
Click to expand...

That's the thing with Invasions... You need to be sure... that the moment you put your army on march, you will get every support on the "other" ground to legitimate/support etc your "advance".

The US did so with Iraq, Where they've got the "Shia" side (so to speak) in their hands during Saddam reign, and even with that, we know the consequences of such "limited" support

Russia, is our modern example of such things, whatever it's with the Georgian events or more recently with "Crimea". But the difference with TR, Russia already have a very powerful Influence and Army across the region, that gave her a bit of "ease"... Even with such solid grounds, they till this day, pay for such actions, whatever on the "Influence arena" or "Economical one".

So, Can TR be "Equipped" enough in all those "fields" to sustain or put ahead such "Action". in a country that is crucial and strategical to almost any superpower on this earth ( it's Not small fries like Crimea or Georgia)
 
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HannibalBarca said:
That's the thing with Invasions... You need to be sure... that the moment you put your army on march, you will get every support on the "other" ground to legitimate/support etc your "advance".

The US did so with Iraq, Where they've got the "Shia" side (so to speak) in their hands during Saddam reign, and even with that, we know the consequences of such "limited" support

Russia, is our modern example of such things, whatever it's with the Georgian events or more recently with "Crimea". But the difference with TR, Russia already have a very powerful Influence and Army across the region, that gave her a bit of "ease"... Even with such solid grounds, they till this day, pay for such actions, whatever on the "Influence arena" or "Economical one".

So, Can TR be "Equipped" enough in all those "fields" to sustain or put ahead such "Action". in a country that is crucial and strategical to almost any superpower on this earth ( it's Not small fries like Crimea or Georgia)
Click to expand...
If Turkey have support from the local people I think its possible.
 
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Actually, Turkmen people are protesting of parlament election in Irag.. if their demands not met, they can go against government.. in case that Iragi government attack, Turkey might intervene like Russia did in Crimea..
Turkey eventually need to get those areas no matter what..
 
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