CriticalThought
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DISCLAIMER: This article represents the author's own individual thoughts. The author has no links with PAF, PAC, AvDI or any other aerospace organization, and certainly does not have access to any private and/or classified information relating to the activities and roadmap of PAF, PAC, AvDI or any other aerospace organization.
Countries pursue industrialization with different end goals. For economic powerhouses like USA and China, their continued survival relies on a relentless pursuit of industrial excellence. Their size justifies their goal of end-to-end vertical integration to create entire products on-shore. Others, such as Sweden, South Korea, and Israel, lack such depth, but substitute it with specialization in key areas, while integrating best of the breed systems from the global market.
Pakistan's position is unique in that it is viewed with suspicion and derision throughout the world. As such, even the doors of integrating best of the breed systems into a product tailored for its own needs are pretty much closed on it. It is thus incredible to see the PAF rising, against all odds, like a phoenix from the ashes of industrial backwardness in Pakistan. Indeed, JF-17 is the pride of Pakistan, and represents some of the highest levels of manufacturing technology being utilized to create a world class product.
And yet, the manufacturing plant of JF-17 does not represent an indigenous capability to produce aircraft tailored to our needs. The JF-17 is a result of many compromises, both economic and technological. More importantly, it is a Transfer of Technology, wherein, tools, techniques, and processes have been handed over, allowing replication ad nauseum.
Thankfully, PAF is fully aware of the situation and is, in fact, one step ahead of the game. The MoDP Yearbook for FY16-17 describes the creation of an Aviation Design Institute. The exact words from the year book are as follows
http://modp.gov.pk/modp/userfiles1/file/Year Book 2015-16 Part-II.pdf
PAF rightfully deserves our salutations for being progress and displaying such thought leadership. Yet, for the keen reader, the description above leaves many open questions. What are the products on which AvDI will be working on? What level, or depth, of indigenization will be targeted? Which systems and components will be indigenized? Unfortunately, not much is known about these details in the public realm. In this article, I wish to analyze the most pressing needs for which PAF needs world class indigenous solutions. It is my hope to instigate a healthy discourse on the topic, and the resulting synergy of intellects would shine light on the way forward for PAF, and indeed, for Pakistan.
In terms of power projection, PAF sorely lacks one crucial element: a modern, hi-tech, medium weight fighter jet in sufficiently large numbers, that does not face the lingering threat of sanctions. Opinion varies as to whether this should be a strike figher, or an air superiority fighter. This author believes that the army should be fully capable of both air defence (through mobile SAMs and MANPADs) and air attack (through attack helicopters, drones, and missiles). This leaves PAF with three major tasks:
1. Establishing air superiority on land and sea by attacking aerial and air defence assets in the air, on the ground, and at sea.
2. Deep penetration within enemy territory to strike high value targets.
3. Attacking naval assets at sea.
Note that the real world is not ideal, and PAF must retain its capabilities for CAS so it can deliver whenever the need arises. In this article, we shall not pursue this angle further. Note further that 2 and 3 above are best served by a fifth generation stealth bomber, something that is best acquired through China. This leaves us with the air superiority role.
PAF's theatre of operations spreads from some of the world's tallest peaks in the north to the vast expanses of the Arabian sea in the south. Within this vast arena, PAF fighters encounter tortuous deserts, lush plains, rugged mountains, and frozen glaciers. A front line, medium weight air superiority fighter must be able to perform its duties in the full range of these environments. For ease of reference, from here onwards, we shall term this air superiority fighter as Spark (of lightning preceding the Thunder).
I envision PAF's standard air combat package being led by two Sparks that are supported by four Thunders. The air superiority fighter must excel at EW, SEAD, BVR, as well as WVR combat. If we sit back and deliberate upon this situation, we realize that the Thunders have enough corner speed, and will only get better with Block 3. Hence, we assign the role of hi-lo pincer to our air superiority fighter. We require:
1. Excellent super sonic handling.
2. Excellent rate of climb.
3. Ability to fire at targets located anywhere within the sphere.
4. Low observable features.
In order to achieve these objects, I envisage a tailless, large delta wing aircraft, with a high sweep angle vertical stabilizer and no canards. The air intake should be situated below the fuselage, thus making the design inherently unstable in the pitch axis. Avid readers will note that this design looks very much like the F-16 XL.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16XL
In terms of indigenous production of such a fighter, we concentrate on two areas: the airframe, and the engine.
If AvDI is to take up indigenous design and development of the airframe, it will need super computing facilities, modern wind tunnels, and stress testing equipment at a minimum. The final design may very well turn out to be nothing like the F-16XL, but it provides a credible base to start from. It will also need capabilities for the production and machining of various aviation grades alloys and composites, which will have to be selected by designers as needed. Even if Chinese help is utilized in setting up and operationalizing this infrastructure, we envisage a project of four to five years, at the end of which, AvDI will produce a working prototype whose performance can be tested through actual flight tests. This would be a momentous occasion in the history of Pakistan, and would represent our advancement into the exclusive league of nations that have an indigenous capability for the design and development of hi-tech systems.
In order to be relevant well int the 21st century, PAF's front line fighter must be designed around a truly world class engine. Recent news gives indications about the possibility of a collaboration between Rolls Royce and PAF. Even if it becomes a reality, this project will be defined by the needs of the Turkish TFX program. Here again, the restrictions being faced by PAF mean that if it is to benefit from a world class engine, it is mostly on its own.
Many would see the task of indigenous engine development as being too onerous for the likes of PAF. And the fact of the matter is that this is a huge challenge. But if steps and measures are not put into place today, PAF will continue to face this problem well into the future. So, what can PAF do to surmount this challenge in the long term?
It should be noted that a turbo engine is needed, not just for fighter jets, but also for cruise missiles. Fortunately, cruise missiles fall into the purvey of SPD, and strategic national defence for the delivery of nukes is a very high priority. There are many parallels in the technology for creating a stealth cruise missile and a jet fighter. Interestingly, amongst many other commonalities, is the matter of a turbo engine. Thus, strategic national defence demands investment in the area of indigenous turbo engine design, development, and production. I would like PAF to leverage this need and launch a turbo engine program in consort with SPD.
In the end, it is up to PAF's leadership to assign roadmap items to AvDI. This author will wait anxiously for further details to be made public via official sources. Meanwhile, I would like to invite everyone to share their thoughts and critiques on this topic.
Countries pursue industrialization with different end goals. For economic powerhouses like USA and China, their continued survival relies on a relentless pursuit of industrial excellence. Their size justifies their goal of end-to-end vertical integration to create entire products on-shore. Others, such as Sweden, South Korea, and Israel, lack such depth, but substitute it with specialization in key areas, while integrating best of the breed systems from the global market.
Pakistan's position is unique in that it is viewed with suspicion and derision throughout the world. As such, even the doors of integrating best of the breed systems into a product tailored for its own needs are pretty much closed on it. It is thus incredible to see the PAF rising, against all odds, like a phoenix from the ashes of industrial backwardness in Pakistan. Indeed, JF-17 is the pride of Pakistan, and represents some of the highest levels of manufacturing technology being utilized to create a world class product.
And yet, the manufacturing plant of JF-17 does not represent an indigenous capability to produce aircraft tailored to our needs. The JF-17 is a result of many compromises, both economic and technological. More importantly, it is a Transfer of Technology, wherein, tools, techniques, and processes have been handed over, allowing replication ad nauseum.
Thankfully, PAF is fully aware of the situation and is, in fact, one step ahead of the game. The MoDP Yearbook for FY16-17 describes the creation of an Aviation Design Institute. The exact words from the year book are as follows
http://modp.gov.pk/modp/userfiles1/file/Year Book 2015-16 Part-II.pdf
PAF rightfully deserves our salutations for being progress and displaying such thought leadership. Yet, for the keen reader, the description above leaves many open questions. What are the products on which AvDI will be working on? What level, or depth, of indigenization will be targeted? Which systems and components will be indigenized? Unfortunately, not much is known about these details in the public realm. In this article, I wish to analyze the most pressing needs for which PAF needs world class indigenous solutions. It is my hope to instigate a healthy discourse on the topic, and the resulting synergy of intellects would shine light on the way forward for PAF, and indeed, for Pakistan.
In terms of power projection, PAF sorely lacks one crucial element: a modern, hi-tech, medium weight fighter jet in sufficiently large numbers, that does not face the lingering threat of sanctions. Opinion varies as to whether this should be a strike figher, or an air superiority fighter. This author believes that the army should be fully capable of both air defence (through mobile SAMs and MANPADs) and air attack (through attack helicopters, drones, and missiles). This leaves PAF with three major tasks:
1. Establishing air superiority on land and sea by attacking aerial and air defence assets in the air, on the ground, and at sea.
2. Deep penetration within enemy territory to strike high value targets.
3. Attacking naval assets at sea.
Note that the real world is not ideal, and PAF must retain its capabilities for CAS so it can deliver whenever the need arises. In this article, we shall not pursue this angle further. Note further that 2 and 3 above are best served by a fifth generation stealth bomber, something that is best acquired through China. This leaves us with the air superiority role.
PAF's theatre of operations spreads from some of the world's tallest peaks in the north to the vast expanses of the Arabian sea in the south. Within this vast arena, PAF fighters encounter tortuous deserts, lush plains, rugged mountains, and frozen glaciers. A front line, medium weight air superiority fighter must be able to perform its duties in the full range of these environments. For ease of reference, from here onwards, we shall term this air superiority fighter as Spark (of lightning preceding the Thunder).
I envision PAF's standard air combat package being led by two Sparks that are supported by four Thunders. The air superiority fighter must excel at EW, SEAD, BVR, as well as WVR combat. If we sit back and deliberate upon this situation, we realize that the Thunders have enough corner speed, and will only get better with Block 3. Hence, we assign the role of hi-lo pincer to our air superiority fighter. We require:
1. Excellent super sonic handling.
2. Excellent rate of climb.
3. Ability to fire at targets located anywhere within the sphere.
4. Low observable features.
In order to achieve these objects, I envisage a tailless, large delta wing aircraft, with a high sweep angle vertical stabilizer and no canards. The air intake should be situated below the fuselage, thus making the design inherently unstable in the pitch axis. Avid readers will note that this design looks very much like the F-16 XL.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16XL
In terms of indigenous production of such a fighter, we concentrate on two areas: the airframe, and the engine.
If AvDI is to take up indigenous design and development of the airframe, it will need super computing facilities, modern wind tunnels, and stress testing equipment at a minimum. The final design may very well turn out to be nothing like the F-16XL, but it provides a credible base to start from. It will also need capabilities for the production and machining of various aviation grades alloys and composites, which will have to be selected by designers as needed. Even if Chinese help is utilized in setting up and operationalizing this infrastructure, we envisage a project of four to five years, at the end of which, AvDI will produce a working prototype whose performance can be tested through actual flight tests. This would be a momentous occasion in the history of Pakistan, and would represent our advancement into the exclusive league of nations that have an indigenous capability for the design and development of hi-tech systems.
In order to be relevant well int the 21st century, PAF's front line fighter must be designed around a truly world class engine. Recent news gives indications about the possibility of a collaboration between Rolls Royce and PAF. Even if it becomes a reality, this project will be defined by the needs of the Turkish TFX program. Here again, the restrictions being faced by PAF mean that if it is to benefit from a world class engine, it is mostly on its own.
Many would see the task of indigenous engine development as being too onerous for the likes of PAF. And the fact of the matter is that this is a huge challenge. But if steps and measures are not put into place today, PAF will continue to face this problem well into the future. So, what can PAF do to surmount this challenge in the long term?
It should be noted that a turbo engine is needed, not just for fighter jets, but also for cruise missiles. Fortunately, cruise missiles fall into the purvey of SPD, and strategic national defence for the delivery of nukes is a very high priority. There are many parallels in the technology for creating a stealth cruise missile and a jet fighter. Interestingly, amongst many other commonalities, is the matter of a turbo engine. Thus, strategic national defence demands investment in the area of indigenous turbo engine design, development, and production. I would like PAF to leverage this need and launch a turbo engine program in consort with SPD.
In the end, it is up to PAF's leadership to assign roadmap items to AvDI. This author will wait anxiously for further details to be made public via official sources. Meanwhile, I would like to invite everyone to share their thoughts and critiques on this topic.
