Think Tank paper: Pakistan and US aid – Time to send the addict to rehab?

[Developereo]

And dev you thanked this?

I was thanking the overall gist of the post, since I agree with a lot of things in it.

Basically, many of Pakistan's problems are self-inflicted. America only took advantage of a complicit and duplicitous cadre of Pakistani elites who, ironically, still reign supreme so there's little hope for optimism even now.

I also agree that China's patience will wear thin sooner or later. See it from their point of view: instead of a strong, self-sufficient ally that can pull its own weight, they have to deal with a country whose foreign policy is forever suspect since it is for sale. A country which still hasn't delivered on a critical Chinese need like Gawadar, and which has managed to screw up all its neighborly relationships -- again, because the elite are always looking for the highest bidder for the country's foreign policy.

Everything Pakistan has achieved has been due to its armed forces and ordinary entrepreneurs -- these things have been achieved despite the government, not because of it.

P.S. As for America, the OP underestimates the effects of American wrath. If America decides to impose comprehensive global sanctions on Pakistan, ala Iran, Pakistan will be finished. There will be no "secondary" markets for Pakistani goods, since there is nothing Pakistan produces which is indispensable to the markets. How and why America manages to justify these sanctions is a detail -- causes and consent can always be manufactured.

 

[lem34]

Everything Pakistan has achieved has been due to its armed forces and ordinary entrepreneurs -- these things have been achieved despite the government, not because of it.

They will continue to do so.

 

[Albatross]

Guy---just kill the terrorists---that is all you need to do----wipe them out---you have the world behind you---you have the oppurtunity and momentum going behind you----. Just keep on taking them out and let your media blaze the news all the time in sync with your operations.

You have to do things that you can control----you can control the killing of the terrorists and their supporters----you cannot control the allegiance of other nations---. Neither is china and nor is russia in any condition and position to face off the u s---and talk of iran----don't humiliate yourself---.

It indeed was a lovely solution to kill all the terrorists but on the ground it gets difficult when one finds so many varying supporters to back them.There are a few questions to ponder a)Why TTP has such a huge amounts of US weapons. b) Pakistan is an ally but still baloch rebels who had taken refuge in kabul were sent to switzerland once Pak pointed that out.c)Why is US holding seminars on Balochistan when that is our internal issue.

Above all it requires huge money to sustain against an army of Pak size for a decade something TTP has done so well where from they are getting their funds though many blames it on drug trade and even if we belive so for a second,Hashish is not cultivated in Pak in such huge amounts as is in af'tan and whoz letting that happen and then let it cross to pakistan why US and af'tan cant control that.India knows once we are done with issues at home we will raise again kashmir issue and would love to see us occupied at home and thats why is actively supporting baloch rebels and TTP as well .Unless all these foreign hands are cut off I cant see how we can just eliminate all the terrorists.

And the negative propaganda about Pak is ever rising ,they paint us as if we love these terrorists who kill our innocent civilians every day.

But I partially agree with second part that we need to have control on our land and ourselves as well but it becomes difficult when your opponents have such strong supporters and even that in disguise.

 

[lem34]

P.S. As for America, the OP underestimates the effects of American wrath. If America decides to impose comprehensive global sanctions on Pakistan, ala Iran, Pakistan will be finished. There will be no "secondary" markets for Pakistani goods, since there is nothing Pakistan produces which is indispensable to the markets. How and why America manages to justify these sanctions is a detail -- causes and consent can always be manufactured.

This is where i do not have common ground with you. What resources did Cuba have. I know you may state they had the Soviets. Well we need to find an alternate. We either accept the Indian line of a uni polar world or we push towards the like of China and Russia. I agree with you we do need to deliver to the Chinese Russians etc.

the only way we will find an alternate is out of necessity.

This is where I think Americans have overplayed their hands in asking too much of the likes of Zardari and co. Zardari and co can not deliver what the Americans want viz a vie routes etc with elections around the corner.

I also agree that China's patience will wear thin sooner or later. See it from their point of view: instead of a strong, self-sufficient ally that can pull its own weight, they have to deal with a country whose foreign policy is forever suspect since it is for sale. A country which still hasn't delivered on a critical Chinese need like Gawadar, and which has managed to screw up all its neighborly relationships -- again, because the elite are always looking for the highest bidder for the country's foreign policy.

.

something else worth noting is that we could do more for China but Pakistan even with a weak governance is preferable to them than no Pakistan. Can China afford Pakistan to frack up? Not for Pakistan's sake but it's own sake??

 

[Albatross]

And dev you thanked this?

I might be wrong on that but I had nothing against Iran I was just pointing out our inability to learn drilling oil at our own which is shameful for a nuclear nation.In badin,sindh BP has oil wells we have proven reserves of 6 trillion tonnes in balochistan with plenty reserves in south-west punjab and sindh as well.

Talking about Iran as a whole there are many things to be considered.a)Iran's alliance with India resulting in chabahar port contracts which actually enabled indians to exercise their influence in a'ftan.Had it not happened it would have saved pak many troubles.That will also help india access to central asia states something pak thought to be reserved for herself for so long .Though chabahar isnt a deep sea port like gwadar but still it has its effects. b)Even US approves that alliance against Pak by letting india buy iranian crude so that relations of india and iran doesnt go down as it proves fruitful in cornering Pak.

 

[lem34]

Talking about Iran as a whole there are many things to be considered.a)Iran's alliance with India resulting in chabahar port contracts which actually enabled indians to exercise their influence in a'ftan.Had it not happened it would have saved pak many troubles.That will also help india access to central asia states something pak thought to be reserved for herself for so long .Though chabahar isnt a deep sea port like gwadar but still it has its effects. b)Even US approves that alliance against Pak by letting india buy iranian crude so that relations of india and iran doesnt go down as it proves fruitful in cornering Pak.

We and our Parabians have not helped with our relations with Iran. Before the Iranian revolution they were one of our closest allies. We should have adhered to a strict neutrality between Arabs and Iranian tussle.

Do not forget in 65 war they allowed our jets to refuel and land at their bases and provided us jets when no one else. If we have had remained neutral the Iran-Indian link would be weaker.

Remember an enemies enemy is your friend. Both Iran and Pakistan lose in the vision that Americans have for our region. The Iranian leadership is more mature and will not be blind to this.

I mean why have we sent a small contingent to Jordan?

 

[Developereo]

This is where i do not have common ground with you. What resources did Cuba have.

I don't know the details of the American sanctions program against Cuba. As far as I know, it only prohibits American companies from doing business in Cuba. The situation I am talking about is like Iran. If the US declares that no bank/country/company that conducts business with Pakistan can do so in America (and, Europe), it will have a serious effect. That's before we even talk about all the international financial institutions which America controls.

something else worth noting is that we could do more for China but Pakistan even with a weak governance is preferable to them than no Pakistan. Can China afford Pakistan to frack up? Not for Pakistan's sake but it's own sake??

Of course China prefers a strong Pakistan, but it can't do the hard work for Pakistan -- that has to come from within Pakistan. If there are vast regions where the government can provide no security, no power, and no infrastructure, even the ingenious Chinese can't work miracles. Do you know why the Chinese don't give too much aid to Pakistan? Because they know exactly where the money will go. China knows that, as much as it values Pakistan, the country is a toy for the feudal elite who have ZERO intention of changing their behavior. How can China save Baluchistan when the Pakistani leaders themselves don't give a damn?

Personally, I am amazed the Chinese have shown as much patience as they have with Pakistan.

 

[lem34]

I don't know the details of the American sanctions program against Cuba. As far as I know, it only prohibits American companies from doing business in Cuba. The situation I am talking about is like Iran. If the US declares that no bank/country/company that conducts business with Pakistan can do so in America (and, Europe), it will have a serious effect. That's before we even talk about all the international financial institutions which America controls.

cant see them being successful in the UN. Sanctions have never worked. Even less likely when someone like China does not agree ie a large country. I can find authority if you wont take my word for it.

I don't know the details of the American sanctions program against Cuba. As far as I know, it only prohibits American companies from doing business in Cuba. The situation I am talking about is like Iran. If the US declares that no bank/country/company that conducts business with Pakistan can do so in America (and, Europe), it will have a serious effect. That's before we even talk about all the international financial institutions which America controls.



as much as it values Pakistan, the country is a toy for the feudal elite who have ZERO intention of changing their behavior. How can China save Baluchistan when the Pakistani leaders themselves don't give a damn?

Personally, I am amazed the Chinese have shown as much patience as they have with Pakistan.

Chinese have shown patience cos they have no choice.

I have suggested eliminating the feudal so called elite but I am not alone to be met with a chorus of derision(a la MK style). But whether the "elite" swims with the tide or against it their American tilt is exposed and untenable and unacceptable

 

[fd24]

P.S. As for America, the OP underestimates the effects of American wrath. If America decides to impose comprehensive global sanctions on Pakistan, ala Iran, Pakistan will be finished. There will be no "secondary" markets for Pakistani goods, since there is nothing Pakistan produces which is indispensable to the markets. How and why America manages to justify these sanctions is a detail -- causes and consent can always be manufactured.

I agree - the wrath of the US is not to be underestimated. Lately the annoyance of the USA has been visible - on occasion showing tantrums like a spoilt child. Look this is probably the best chance we have had as regards to loosening the stranglehold they have had over us. There has been examples where the wrath hasnt worked to the extent the USA would have wanted - Cuba being an example.
It depends on the strength of our relations with third parties such as China and Russia.
You may also underestimate the strategical geographical position that Pakistan has. Is the USA prepared to give this away? Look at the geopolitics Dev and i think one will agree there is potentially a loss for the US as well if the relations reach a complete fail...

 

[OrionHunter]

India knows once we are done with issues at home we will raise again kashmir issue and would love to see us occupied at home and thats why is actively supporting baloch rebels and TTP as well.

Ah! Here we go again!

India actively supporting Baloch rebels and TTP?? Now I ask you - WHERE IS THE PROOF? EVIDENCE? Pakistan hasn't provided a shred of evidence thus far! Do YOU have any? Then show it here before pointing an accusing finger at India. And please don't put forth the tired argument that so and so confirmed such and such! Because that's nothing but baloney!

 

[lem34]

Ah! Here we go again!

India actively supporting Baloch rebels and TTP?? Now I ask you - WHERE IS THE PROOF? EVIDENCE? Pakistan hasn't provided a shred of evidence thus far! Do YOU have any? Then show it here before pointing an accusing finger at India. And please don't put forth the tired argument that so and so confirmed such and such! Because that's nothing but baloney!

Bit off topic but why does India need so may consulates in Afghanistan? Tourism??

 

[Developereo]

cant see them being successful in the UN. Sanctions have never worked. Even less likely when someone like China does not agree ie a large country. I can find authority if you wont take my word for it.

40% of Pakistani exports go to EU+US. China only accounts for 8%. I do agree with everyone else that Pakistan needs to diversify its markets more.

whether the "elite" swims with the tide or against it their American tilt is exposed and untenable and unacceptable

Let's see if the feudals win the next election. I know which way I would bet.

You may also underestimate the strategical geographical position that Pakistan has. Is the USA prepared to give this away? Look at the geopolitics Dev and i think one will agree there is potentially a loss for the US as well if the relations reach a complete fail...

The US is playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship with its shenanigans in Baluchistan and elsewhere. Unfortunately, the Americans are notoriously bad at long term strategy: they always plan for the short term and then walk away. Even if the US eventually leaves the region, how much damage will they have caused to Pakistan's internal dynamics by that time?

 

[explorer9]

I was a video of Hamid Gul's interview with Russian Television where he said that animosity with United States is bad for any country but friendship with US is even more bad.

 

[lem34]

40% of Pakistani exports go to EU+US. China only accounts for 8%. I do agree with everyone else that Pakistan needs to diversify its markets more.

No gain without pain mate

Let's see if the feudals win the next election. I know which way I would bet.

Mate the very best we can hope is IK with assistance from patriots in ISI. But more likely there will be no overall winner. IK maybe do a deal with one of the other parties? Maybe?

 

[lem34]

The US is playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship with its shenanigans in Baluchistan and elsewhere. Unfortunately, the Americans are notoriously bad at long term strategy: they always plan for the short term and then walk away. Even if the US eventually leaves the region, how much damage will they have caused to Pakistan's internal dynamics by that time?

Clearly we are rapidly approaching the end of Pax America. America is on the demise and China is on the rise. Sometime in the future China will take over the role of world leader. This is inevitable as the sun rises. Its just a question of time. In the past empires have clashed and there has always been war and misery whenever the baton is exchanged. You may well think that America and British empire exchanged the baton peacefully. But this is not the case. Only Hitler and the Germans stopped direct hostilities between the British empire. In fact in 1930 America was making preparations to attack the British.

How America planned to destroy BRITAIN in 1930 with bombing raids and chemical weapons | Mail Online

The big question is can Americans accept the new world order where they and white English speaking countries will not have the edge and control world resources.


What we need to do is that Pakistan positions it self for maximum benefit. Allah has given us a fantastic geo strategic location something the thieves sitting in Islamabad can not steal lol