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The Race to Be India’s Next Prime Minister Is Narendra Modi’s to Lose

[Bregs]

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Election season took off in India today, as television cameras tracked the vehicle of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi from the New Delhi airport to a board meeting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the capital. By evening, the long-anticipated deed was done: The divisive and charismatic Modi had been chosen by the nation’s main opposition party as their official prime ministerial candidate. Despite fierce objections within the BJP’s upper ranks, party president Rajnath Singh named the chief minister of the western Indian state to helm the party’s push toward national elections scheduled next year— and kicked the ball squarely into the ruling Congress Party’s court.

In some ways, this wasn’t the biggest news of the day in India. In the hours leading up to the announcement, the long-awaited verdict came down in the infamous Delhi rape case, with all four men found guilty sentenced to death. India’s Twittersphere exploded with a spasm of angst over violence against women and capital punishment in India, where the death penalty is reserved for the “rarest of the rare” cases.

A few short years ago, Modi’s ascension to the top political circles in the world’s largest democracy would have caused its own social media furor. The ambitious politician, though never convicted, has never been able to shake allegations that he failed to intervene in anti-Muslim riots that erupted in Gujarat on his watch in 2002. As many as 1000 Muslims were killed in days of violence that gripped the state, and for several years after, critics who blamed Modi for inflaming the rioters felt reasonably assured that he could never be considered a viable candidate for prime minister in a nation where over 13% of the population is Muslim. In 2005, he was denied a visa to the U.S., and he has has not visited the country since.

But at home, as the skilled politician built up accolades for the efficient management and relative prosperity of Gujarat, voters have kept him in power, and BJP leaders have embraced him as the best chance for the party in 2014. Many Modi detractors have watched in disbelief as support for him has risen; in one recent poll, he was preferred as the next leader of the nation over Congress political scion Rahul Gandhi, with 19% of respondents saying they would choose Modi as PM and only 12% saying the same for Gandhi.

How Modi’s divisive persona will play out amongst voters over the next year is far from clear. Internally, Modi’s top-down leadership style has come under scrutiny as a potential liability in India’s often-fragile coalition politics. ‘NaMo’ has also created a rift in his own party. Veteran BJP operator L.K. Advani, who reportedly harbors his own prime ministerial ambitions, has refused to give his consent to his junior’s promotion, raising objections that the controversy surrounding the candidate will draw votes away from the party in key states. In a show of protest, Advani did not attend the meeting in Delhi on Friday. “I promise that in the 2014 election, the BJP will emerge victorious,” Modi told reporters after the meeting. “The party will work hard and we will leave no stone unturned.”

If Modi does hurt the BJP as the chosen frontrunner, the party may squander an opportunity handed to them by an embattled Congress-led government. In a July poll conducted by CNN-IBN-The Hindu, only 38% of India’s urbanites were satisfied with the government’s performance, down from 49% in 2011. A loss of confidence in India’s economic miracle and the stench of scandal that has clung to the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition in its second term has opened the door wide for the opposition to make its case to voters in the world’s largest democracy that it’s time for a changing of the guard.

The Congress Party has been trying to shore up support, taking a series of decisive steps to get the economy back on track and successfully pushing through new laws that will appeal to its own vote base, including bills that provide more food support to poor families and firmly support farmers’ land rights against big development.

But with Modi front and center, the party will need to do much more — including anoint its own frontrunner to explain to 1.2 billion Indians why Congress is still the right choice for the country. Rahul Gandhi, the son of Congress Party leader Sonia Gandhi, is in a natural position to take on the job. But he has not shown any particular zeal for the role, and it is unclear when and if he will ever willingly step forward. One thing is certain: If Congress doesn’t find somebody for the job soon, they risk letting the next few months shape up to be a one-man race.

Source: The Race to Be India’s Next Prime Minister Is Narendra Modi’s to Lose | TIME.com
 
No can do: Experts nix Modi as PM in 2014 | Firstpost


No can do: Experts nix Modi as PM in 2014

“No He Can’t” blares the cover of the latest issue of Outlook magazine which marks the inevitable pushback to the triumphant narrative that has dominated headlines since Narendra Modi‘s anointment as BJP’s candidate for Prime Minister. Outlook’s prediction, based on the ground “expert” predictions, is offered as a reality check to the innumerable stories on Modi’s personal popularity. The bad news for the BJP: the numbers just don’t add up to victory. The problem, according to Neelabh Mishra, is that NDA has no room to grow. They have already maximised their gains in traditional strongholds in the North and West — think MP, HP, Gujarat, Goa etc. And even large gains in other states in these regions — Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi and Maharash*tra — will still leave NDA 90-100 seats short. [Read the results and analysis here] The gains the NDA may have in the north and west will be undermined by losses in Karn*ataka, till recently its only southern bastion. And with his departure from the coalition, Nitish seems to have ensured that even if the BJP gains a few seats in Bihar, the NDA would be down in that state: it had won 32 seats last time; this time it could be half or a third of that number… even in UP, the BJP can’t hope for more than 30 of the 80 seats: the electorate is fractured and the Muzaffarnagar and Ayo**dhya gambles of the BJP and SP may have caused a polarisation detrimental to both. If the BJP’s tally touches 30, that will be thrice the present number—it’s difficult to see any more accruals.
South and East India will stymie Modi’s PM aspirations in 2014, but that’s alright with the RSS which, Mishra argues, is playing the long game. Its chief pracharaks are willing to endure political isolation in the short run in order to pave the way for “a completely Hindutva dominated NDA-II” of the future. To spell out Mishra’s somewhat vague thesis, 2014 is not an election to win but to shift Indian politics rightward. Even a strong showing with Modi at the helm will make the prospect of a unashamedly Hindutva government more palatable, perhaps even inevitable. It’s an interesting argument except another Outlook story in the same issue argues exactly the opposite: That the BJP has sacrificed its collective tradition of leadership at the altar of personality-driven politics for immediate electoral gain. The impending Lok Sabha polls has pushed the BJP to eclipse its entire galaxy of leaders behind the shadow of one man who the party thinks can deliver it the mandate. For long a cadre-based, ideologically oriented party, it’s now trying to transform itself into a single leader-driven, result-oriented one which will be guided by the tools of marketing. Hand-wringing over BJP’s internal democracy aside, how does this momentous decision make sense if Modi can not — as Outlook claims — deliver the required 200+ votes? Surely, it would then mean that BJP’s own polling indicates a big Modi dividend, similar to the C-Voter poll in May which predicted that the NDA minus Modi – with Nitish Kumar in tow – will get a paltry 179, but the seat count shoots to 220 with Modi in charge. So is Modi’s anointment short-term gain or long-term calculation? Foolhardy gamble or far-sighted investment? Nobody knows, including the divided and ambivalent BJP leadership. More importantly, most voters haven’t made up their mind, either. And it is likely that none of us will know until the actual votes are counted. In the mean time, there are polls and pundits galore. Do read the state-by-state breakup and the rest of the analysis on the Outlook website.



I know this is not something modi fans would want to here but try to look at it objectively . modi cant get the 272 number on his own and he has not been able to attract allies.
 
BJP & Mody has no chance and are bound to loose.
 
LOL....... in you dreams.

In any case the Idea of Modi is more important than Modi himself. And that Idea is fast gaining ground. :angel: ........so either way we win and you lose.
 
Analysis is on basis of past trends. If this is how seat are to be calculated, then there is no need for elections.

Past need not fully predict future, at least in 2014 - because of 2 factors

1. Strong Anti-Congress emotion

2. Modi's personal popularity

Even a 5% swing will get BJP 200 seats, which is enough to form Govt

Specifically

Karnataka will come to BJP after Yedurappa joins

Bihar - Bjp will get much more than Outlook prediction. Nitish will lose badly as he has no independent base, as his Kurmis caste is numerically weak, Middle class votes for BJP.

AIADMK will support BJP

If alliance with MNP, BJP will gain significantly in Maharashtra

Seat gain in Haryana and Delhi for sure

Up - with Communal polarisation may give upto 40 seats

And most important, BJP likely to win urban constituencies in all states - number of urban has gone up significantly after delimitation

As for Long term , author is right. RSS is in it for ideology, not immediate power.
 
Only pappu and khongress save this nation, let stupid Indian vote in name of caste, religion. National security is not issue. Scams, riots are not such serious issue. People who ll speak on this issue are communal.
Let burn train and kill women and children. But hey wait, if public response to such incident then it's not fair. Minority has special right, and rest communities should not have any right except dying in riots.
Bloody paid media and slave mentaility people.
Sala cahe desh ka naas ho jaye, pakistan, china tm logo k ghar me ghus kr tm ko mare. Roz scam ho, roz riots ho , wo thik h tm logo k liye,
 
every thing looks better then congress at present...

anyone... even RJD looks good cos if they win their pm candidate will not lick anyones feet in his tanure...

shame for Indian democracy is congress... not saying BJP is angle but look like it infront of elite family...
 
To spell out Mishra’s somewhat vague thesis, 2014 is not an election to win but to shift Indian politics rightward.

In current circumstances, i don't think a Rightward lurch in Indian politics would be harmful.Right wing Economic policies are only thing that could prevent country's Economy from withering away and die;Even though there exist a threat of Bajrang dal baboons gaining power.



India, is past 9 years has become a quasi-socialist economy in which everyone except welfare leeches is invisible to government as they do not vote in hordes.

Last 6 month of UPAII have done enough damage that would take at least a couple of decades to heal and that too that Mother-Son duo does not destroy what is left of Economy with their Über-Socialist policies.


Even Concept of Secularism need a revision in India. India is a country which has disfigured secularism into a monstrosity degrading it something which supports terrorism,Promotes bashing up of hindus and holds only one party responsible in case of Riots. It is about time this concept is scrapped and India adopts laïcité.Even though i do not believe that BJP is going to adopt it but a strong counter-reaction from Hindus may make it clear to everyone that communalism masked as Secularism is not going to going to work laying foundation of proper secularism to be adopted on later date.



I know this is not something modi fans would want to here but try to look at it objectively . modi cant get the 272 number on his own and he has not been able to attract allies.

BJP would probably win 180 seats.

Their vote share and seats is bound to increase in UP. In UP, upper castes have no choice left since their voting for Mayawati and Mulayam in past two election has caused them harm ( mayawati constituting Dalit commities to overlook and veto her own Brahmin MLA destroyed their support base ) and with Modi and other OBC leaders ( BJP's Leadership is overwhelmingly derived from OBC's;Kalyan,Uma bharti,Modi himself); even if they are able to corner small percentage of non-yadav OBC's, it could Ensure BJP to get in excess of 30+ seats. Vote share of parties in UP is very close and usually a swing of 2-3% is more than enough for one party's complete domination.

In South also BJP's prospect are good. AIADMK is guaranteed to ally with Modi given the personal equation between the two while in Andhra, prospect of both BJP itself and it's potential allies are good.In Karnatka they are bound to lose seats but their tally from South as a whole would remain same as it was in last election.
 
Are you convincing yourself?

Looking at the past trends of UPA-1, these predictions have been made. But does the current climate say the same?

Nice try, folks.

the Nehru Dynasty is shaking with fear as days come close.
 
Shocking video: Congress Leader ND Tiwari grabs female host, forces her to dance with him :lol:

8644_1.jpg

Lucknow: During a cultural event where martyrs were being remembered, former Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand chief minister Naryayan Dutt Tiwari forcibly began dancing with the show's host. He caught hold of her and forced her to dance with him. She became uncomfortable, but he did not loosen his grip and continued dancing with her.

Tiwari was the chief guest at the function. He is almost 90 years old, but his behaviour shocked everyone.

With great difficulty the organisers managed to bring Tiwari off the stage. Soon after that, most of the crowd left the venue.

Yes this is same great Congress Leader who was CM and was then made Governor by Sonia Gandhi. He was unfortunately caught on video having sex with 3 teenage prostitutes in the Governors bungalow and kicked out of office.

The same ND Tiware who's bastard son went to court to prove that ND Tiwari was his father. :lol:

Congress ki Jai ho.
 
Karnataka will come to BJP after Yedurappa joins

You must be kidding that BJP will come back after Yedurappa joins.. @Bang Galore

Shocking video: Congress Leader ND Tiwari grabs female host, forces her to dance with him :lol:

AStoninshing...At this age and in public.. What kind of guts he got? These guys should be barred from politics..
 
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You must be kidding that BJP will come back after Yedurappa joins.. @Bang Galore

AStoninshing...At this age and in public.. What kind of guts he got? These guys should be barred from politics..

Not surprising. They have a history of getting away with crime against women in congress raj.


You are from kerala so no need to mention the Suryanelli rape case concerning a 16-year-old malayalee girl and the rapist congress minister P. J. Kurien is now the Speaker of Rajya Sabha :cheesy:


ND Tiwari was only Governor. :P
 
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Chill... :D I am sure he does not approve that. @seiko is not a Congress stooge. He has his concerns but he is not [Bregs] :devil:
Not surprising. They have a history of getting away with crime against women in congress raj.


You are from kerala so no need to mention the Suryanelli rape case concerning a 16-year-old malayalee girl and the rapist congress minister P. J. Kurien is now the Speaker of Rajya Sabha :cheesy:


ND Tiwari was only Governor. :P
 
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Not surprising. They have a history of getting away with crime against women in congress raj.


You are from kerala so no need to mention the Suryanelli rape case concerning a 16-year-old malayalee girl and the rapist congress minister P. J. Kurien is now the Speaker of Rajya Sabha :cheesy:


ND Tiwari was only Governor. :P

Ironically, he was the one who tabled the anti rape bill :lol: .. Dont know what went through his mind at that time :P

Are you convincing yourself?

Looking at the past trends of UPA-1, these predictions have been made. But does the current climate say the same?

Nice try, folks.

the Nehru Dynasty is shaking with fear as days come close.

The problem is, out of this fear, they are doing anything and everything to cling on to power.. They do not care how it is affecting the common people and security of this nation.. :hitwall:
 

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