The Post-U.S. Era: Emergence of A New Political World Order

[Greater China]

The Post-U.S. Era: Emergence of A New Political World Order

by Dr. Imad Fawzi Shueibi | Thursday, July 5, 2012

Talking about the Post-American Era is no longer considered to be political garrulous rant and wishful thinking. When I wrote about this idea in my book “New Political World Order” in 1991, it was a kind of prospective analysis that could not be taken seriously then. Non-believing hinged on motives known in epistemology as “the obstacle of common knowledge and change resistance”.

At that time, my thinking constituted an epistemological break, that would later coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb as the “black swan theory” or “lateral thinking” [1], or what came to be known as Thinking Outside the Box. I used to warn –and still do– that Great Powers do not die in bed. What dangerously represents the demise of those countries is their possession of both nuclear weapons and great historical and strategic memories. These are never absent. They are there at the back of the minds and in the recent memories.

Chinese and Russian officials did not keep it a secret nor was it a mere burst of candor -contrary to what Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote- when they concluded that the decline of the U.S. and the rise of China and Russia were an inevitability, [2]. However, breaking down is not an option for great powers. They may fail, but not collapse. In reality such powers can only be shelved.

Chinese and American officials recommend that a great power should not decline too quickly. Though Zbigniew Brzezinski agrees on the aforementioned, he thinks the world is unlikely to be dominated by a single successor – not even China; something on which we agree temporarily, just as we agree on the fact that the phase of global disorder and international uncertainty deteriorated in 2011 to such a degree that it has set off alarm bells of overwhelming chaos. Americans as well Russians and Chinese dread such a warning; however, for some adventurous countries like France and a few others in the Middle East, the prospect of losing their status as regional powers raises the fear of an increased risk of destabilization. The major powers dread the chaos whereas the lesser ones sometimes bet on it so as to disrupt the former in the hope of seeing them recoil from the international scene with minimal losses.

The shift towards a new world order accelerated conspicuously in 2011-2012 considering that only a very short time gap separated Putin’s announcement of the breakdown of unipolarity -while making it clear that the emerging powers were not ready to take over yet- from his later announcement at the BRICS Conference of the formation of a New Economic-Banking System (The BRICS Bank) [3]. Not only did the increasingly sharp tone of Russia and China lead to the two double-vetoes, but it also enabled them to assume the leading role in the unfolding dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean, which undoubtedly meant that U.S. history in the region had already faded away and that no other party could stake any claim for the time being.

Obama’s announcement (in early 2012) of the New American Strategy, which entailed “being alert and cautious in the Eastern Mediterranean,” sounded as an acknowledgement of the shift in the balance of power at the same time as the U.S. was militarizing China’s vicinity. In addition, Hilary Clinton’s declaration from Australia was perceived as an extension of the confrontational rhetoric aimed at China, who simply responded by saying: “No one can stop the Chinese sun from rising.”

Because of such declarations, China did not wait for 2016 in order to display its new stength. On the contrary, she hastened to advocate for a multipolar order, in line with the terms laid out by Russia, and which we define as an International Order consisting of two axes with multiple poles orbiting around each one. However, one axis is ascending while the other one is descending.

It has become clear that the worsening of the conflict has deeply shaken U.S. diplomacy, which was forced, in April 2012, to sound the retreat –albeit only verbally- from confrontation and to state that the U.S. was not engaged in a cold war with China. That came after a meeting between the Chinese Prime Minister and Kofi Annan, during which the latter was informed that China and Russia are now the leading world powers, ranking respectively first and second, and that he, Kofi Annan, had to coordinate with them. As a front-row witness to the unipolar world stretching from 1991 to the early 21st century, Annan would now have to witness the downfall of that same world, having to accept that Moscow and Beijing are henceforth in charge of issues relating to the Eastern Mediterranean.

Washington has been mired in war for a whole decade –a period reminiscent of the arms race with the USSR, known as “Star Wars,”- which, together with other crises, has drained the United States and turned it into a state on the brink of bankruptcy. That prompted Washington to announce a re-positioning on China’s periphery in an attempt to play a role in the Indo-Pacific region. But, it backtracked on that announcement in such as way as to suggest that it has actually already lost its superpower aura. In fact, when a major country threatens to employ a force that only superpowers are endowed with, it loses two thirds of that force.

The world is changing. We are witnessing precisely the New International Order whose crystallization had been postponed since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but has accelerated towards maturity even though some of its emerging powers may not yet be quite ready. The precipitation of events in the Middle East obliged those new players to rapidly join the game.

However, the consequences of the emergence of new powers and the decline of those who, like the United States, formerly occupied a leading position will soon manifest themselves and have an effect on regional powers. Those consequences will translate into bloody struggles that may not find a solution until after the New World Order has been established, with the consent of the multiple actors and in accordance with their new status.

Dr. Imad Fawzi Shueibi, Philosopher and Geopolitician. President of the Data & Strategic Studies Center (Damascus, Syria).

Notes

[1] According to the Lebanese-US epistemologist Nassim Nicholas Taleb, “A black swan is a highly improbable event with 3 main features: It is unpredictable, produces major consequences and a post facto explanation is always provided to render it more rational, giving it an apparent and reassuring predictability.” See “The Black Swan, The power of the unpredictable,” Oxford University Press, 2008.

[2] “After America – How does the world look in an age of U.S. decline?,” by Zbigniew Brzezinsk, Foreign Policy, January/February 2012.

[3] “Delhi Declaration (Fourth BRICS Summit)”, Voltaire Network, 29 March 2012

The 4th Media News

 

[anon45]

LOL that site is a piece of crap. Even DEBKAfile is more respectable.

 

[Greater China]

LOL that site is a piece of crap. Even DEBKAfile is more respectable.

DEBKAfile is just one of Israel's many propaganda tools. Who really reads their deceitful trash?

Here's a more sober analysis of a Jewish intellectual, a progressive one that is!

Heading for Economic Collapse

by Stephen Lendman | Sunday, June 24, 2012

The late Bob Chapman predicted it years ago. So does Paul Craig Roberts. It could "destroy Western civilization," he believes.

Untenable political and financial decisions put US and European economies on a collision course with disaster. Bailouts and market manipulation delay the inevitable.

A tipping point approaches. Only its timeframe is unknown.

Money power runs world economies. Wall Street and giant European banks run Western societies.

"Financial deregulation converted the financial system (into) a gambling casino....," says Roberts. Zero interest rates destroy household savings. Media scoundrels suppress ugly truths.

Western governments letting banking crooks scam the system for profits "is a system that is headed for catastrophic failure."

Bad news keeps getting worse. Public acknowledgement arrives late. Moody's June 21 downgrade of 15 major banks conceded what's been known for years.

Giant Western banks are zombies. They're insolvent. Taxpayer funded bailouts alone keep them operating. Moody's warned last winter than downgrades were coming. So-called stress tests suppress more than they revealed.

Ellen Brown calls the "derivatives casino....a last-ditch attempt to prop up a private pyramid scheme." It's slowly crumbling under its own weight.

JPMorgan Chase is considered America's most stable bank. Brown calls it bankrupt. Evidence, she says, shows it's acknowledged $2 billion loss perhaps exceeds $30 billion.

Roberts explained that America's five largest banks hold $226 trillion in derivative bets. For example, JPMorgan's total assets approach $2 trillion. Its derivatives holdings exceed $70 trillion. Its risk capital is about $136 billion.

Its "derivative bets are 516 times larger than the capital that covers the bets."

Goldman Sachs "takes the cake," says Roberts. Its $44 trillion in derivatives speculation "is covered by only $19 billion in risk capital."

In other words, its bets are "2,295 times larger than" cash on hand covering them.

Derivatives bets by America's five largest banks exceed US GDP over 15-fold. Corrupt politicians allowing it assure eventual economic collapse.

Banking executives are serial liars. After Moody's downgrades, Citigroup and Bank of America officials said its action failed to reflect "safeguards" in place for years.

Roberts destroyed their argument. So did Brown and other independent analysts.

Moody's and other rating agencies long ago lost credibility. They failed to acknowledge the sub prime crisis until headlines revealed it.

They bogusly call toxic assets safe in return for large fees and big profits.

They're called lagging, not leading indicators. They're many days and dollars short. They're part of the dirty game that scams ordinary people.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy said Moody's "action is five years too late."

Stanford University Professor Anat Admati called its downgrades bad news at a time bank "balance sheets are very fragile."

Credit Agricole Securities analyst Mike Mayo said America doesn't have a coherent solution to its banking crisis. Will actions like Moody's make it safer, he asked?

Saying the jury is still out, he doubts it. He also called Thursday's downgrades "unfortunate four years after (a) crisis" that's deepening, not improving.

Evidence shows troubled global banking conditions. Central bank liquidity injections alone prevent collapse. They're running their course. Each new round helps less than previous ones. Ahead they'll be ineffective at a price too great to bear.

They've bailed out banks at the expense of economic growth. Recovery is more distant than earlier. Speculators alone profited. Good times they alone enjoyed are ending.

Economic data show it. The closely watched Markit Eurozone purchasing managers composite index matched May's 46 read. It showed production contracting at the steepest level since June 2009.

Its flash measure dropped from 45.1 in May to 44.8 in June. It reflected a 37-month low. Markit's chief economist, Chris Williamson, said the flash reading "rounded off the weakest quarter for three years."

China's flash PMI fell to 48.1 in June. Manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month. The Fed slashed 2012 and 2013 US growth. Growing numbers of companies are cutting revenue and profit estimates.

Germany's ZEW confidence index plunged to -16.9 from 10.8 in May. It's the largest monthly decline since the 1998 LTCM/Russian debt default crisis.

Moreover, its Ifo business confidence index hit a two-year low, and Italy's consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since 1996.

US initial jobless claims are rising. On June 21, they reached a 2012 high.

Slowdown is gaining speed. Economic underpinnings look wobbly. In June alone, about 70% of economic reports showed weakness.

The Fed's Operation Twist extension underwhelmed analysts. Officially it's called the Maturity Extension Program. It exchanges short-term debt for longer term holdings. In theory, it's to lower interest rates on 10-year Treasuries. In early June 22 trading, they stood at 1.63%, a near record low.

Housing remains in Depression. In the week ending June 15, mortgage purchase applications plunged 8.5%. Companies keep cutting planned capex expenditures. According to the latest Architectural Billings Index, commercial construction keeps contracting.

Down 22% from their highs, commodity prices entered bear market territory. Oil prices hit an 18-month low. It signals weak demand. Brent fell 8% in one week. It's down 30% from its earlier high.

US factory output reached an 11-month low. Eurozone business activity dropped for the fifth straight month. At a 48.5 read in June, Germany's PMI shows contraction. The Fed's June Philadelphia manufacturing index contracted sharply to -16.6 after dropping 5.8 points in May.

The Jolts (Job Opening/Labor Turnover) survey showed job openings plunged 325,000 in May. It was the steepest drop since Lehman's September 2008 collapse. Only twice before in the past decade did it decline that much. All major categories were affected.

New hires decreased for the second straight month. They're lowest since July 2011. Again all categories showed weakness.

Layoffs keep increasing. Cuts rose in three of the past four months.

Data revisions are mostly negative. Peak levels were reached months ago. The full impact of how weak things are has yet to hit home. So-called recovery is illusion, not reality.

Europe's economic condition is grim. Bailing out Spain gets harder. Economist Jack Rasmus estimates its banks need at least $300 billion, not the publicly announced $78.75 billion.

He added that hundreds of billions more are needed to rescue Spain's regional and central governments. At issue is who'll supply it. Sick economies can't solve their own problems.

Eurozone ones look to Germany for help. It bears the greatest burden when it's economy is weakening.

Italy's troubled economy combined with its 12-month 29% of GDP sovereign financing burden means it can't contribute much.

Europe's PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) combined with troubled France have a combined public debt of 200% of Germany's GDP. Its own debt to GDP ratio is 80%.

Simple math says it can't backstop the Eurozone. Bailouts can't continue forever. Debt burdened economies head for collapse. Adding more hastens the timeframe.

Troubled Eurozone economies are so weak that cross-border bank-to-bank lending dried up. ECB chairman Mario Draghi calls inter-bank lending "dysfunctional." It's "not working," he said. As it goes, so does business lending altogether.

Rasmus said these developments show deepening crisis conditions. He blames wrongheaded policy measures.

Austerity when stimulus is needed hit hard. Government revenues are down. So is consumption. Business spending keeps falling. Debt keeps rising. A looming train wreck approaches.

Why should households and economies bear the burden of bailing out crooked banks? Why are too big to fail ones allowed to exist? Why do ordinary people put up with politicians scamming them for personal gain? Why do they elect new bums in place of old ones?

When conditions exceed threshold levels too painful to bear, maybe they'll react the way they should have years ago.

A Final Comment

On June 19, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB) issued a "red alert." Global conditions are "negative, even catastrophic," it said.

The second half of 2012 may "mark a major inflection point of the global system crisis...."

Day of reckoning time approaches. Putting off "the inevitable comes at a high price...."

"The shock of the autumn (of) 2008 will seen like a small summer storm compared to what('s)" coming. The "world system" will be "shake(n)."

GEAB predicts a conversion of geopolitical and economic shocks. They include more Middle East wars, Afpak chaos, "Gulf countries swept away in the turmoil," America's economy in free fall, major bank insolvencies, and money printing madness ended because it no longer works.

Early summer perhaps is the calm before the storm. If GEAB is right, it won't be pleasant on arrival.

StephenLendmanBlog

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

This is wishful thinking.

The same wishful thinking that America had against us for the past 20 years - That we will collapse.

What is the result? We are strong now, and growing stronger than ever.

Now, are we going to make the same mistake as the Americans did, and underestimate our rivals? That is the path to disaster.

 

[LetsGetRowdy]

The US is like a drunkard armed with explosives and will not go down without taking others down with it. Independent nations around the world must be cautious but prepared for the inevitable.

 

[kawaraj]

the US is declining faster than expected. the world need prepare for such a scenario.

 

[faithfulguy]

This is wishful thinking.

The same wishful thinking that America had against us for the past 20 years - That we will collapse.

What is the result? We are strong now, and growing stronger than ever.

Now, are we going to make the same mistake as the Americans did, and underestimate our rivals? That is the path to disaster.

Thank you. US and China are not going any where soon. These two countries contribute to half of the world's growth in the last few years and are the true engines of the global economy.

the US is declining faster than expected. the world need prepare for such a scenario.

don't hold your breath.

 

[PteX]

DEBKAfile is just one of Israel's many propaganda tools. Who really reads their deceitful trash?

Here's a more sober analysis of a Jewish intellectual, a progressive one that is!

Heading for Economic Collapse

by Stephen Lendman | Sunday, June 24, 2012

The late Bob Chapman predicted it years ago. So does Paul Craig Roberts. It could "destroy Western civilization," he believes.

Untenable political and financial decisions put US and European economies on a collision course with disaster. Bailouts and market manipulation delay the inevitable.

A tipping point approaches. Only its timeframe is unknown.

Money power runs world economies. Wall Street and giant European banks run Western societies.

"Financial deregulation converted the financial system (into) a gambling casino....," says Roberts. Zero interest rates destroy household savings. Media scoundrels suppress ugly truths.

Western governments letting banking crooks scam the system for profits "is a system that is headed for catastrophic failure."

Bad news keeps getting worse. Public acknowledgement arrives late. Moody's June 21 downgrade of 15 major banks conceded what's been known for years.

Giant Western banks are zombies. They're insolvent. Taxpayer funded bailouts alone keep them operating. Moody's warned last winter than downgrades were coming. So-called stress tests suppress more than they revealed.

Ellen Brown calls the "derivatives casino....a last-ditch attempt to prop up a private pyramid scheme." It's slowly crumbling under its own weight.

JPMorgan Chase is considered America's most stable bank. Brown calls it bankrupt. Evidence, she says, shows it's acknowledged $2 billion loss perhaps exceeds $30 billion.

Roberts explained that America's five largest banks hold $226 trillion in derivative bets. For example, JPMorgan's total assets approach $2 trillion. Its derivatives holdings exceed $70 trillion. Its risk capital is about $136 billion.

Its "derivative bets are 516 times larger than the capital that covers the bets."

Goldman Sachs "takes the cake," says Roberts. Its $44 trillion in derivatives speculation "is covered by only $19 billion in risk capital."

In other words, its bets are "2,295 times larger than" cash on hand covering them.

Derivatives bets by America's five largest banks exceed US GDP over 15-fold. Corrupt politicians allowing it assure eventual economic collapse.

Banking executives are serial liars. After Moody's downgrades, Citigroup and Bank of America officials said its action failed to reflect "safeguards" in place for years.

Roberts destroyed their argument. So did Brown and other independent analysts.

Moody's and other rating agencies long ago lost credibility. They failed to acknowledge the sub prime crisis until headlines revealed it.

They bogusly call toxic assets safe in return for large fees and big profits.

They're called lagging, not leading indicators. They're many days and dollars short. They're part of the dirty game that scams ordinary people.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy said Moody's "action is five years too late."

Stanford University Professor Anat Admati called its downgrades bad news at a time bank "balance sheets are very fragile."

Credit Agricole Securities analyst Mike Mayo said America doesn't have a coherent solution to its banking crisis. Will actions like Moody's make it safer, he asked?

Saying the jury is still out, he doubts it. He also called Thursday's downgrades "unfortunate four years after (a) crisis" that's deepening, not improving.

Evidence shows troubled global banking conditions. Central bank liquidity injections alone prevent collapse. They're running their course. Each new round helps less than previous ones. Ahead they'll be ineffective at a price too great to bear.

They've bailed out banks at the expense of economic growth. Recovery is more distant than earlier. Speculators alone profited. Good times they alone enjoyed are ending.

Economic data show it. The closely watched Markit Eurozone purchasing managers composite index matched May's 46 read. It showed production contracting at the steepest level since June 2009.

Its flash measure dropped from 45.1 in May to 44.8 in June. It reflected a 37-month low. Markit's chief economist, Chris Williamson, said the flash reading "rounded off the weakest quarter for three years."

China's flash PMI fell to 48.1 in June. Manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month. The Fed slashed 2012 and 2013 US growth. Growing numbers of companies are cutting revenue and profit estimates.

Germany's ZEW confidence index plunged to -16.9 from 10.8 in May. It's the largest monthly decline since the 1998 LTCM/Russian debt default crisis.

Moreover, its Ifo business confidence index hit a two-year low, and Italy's consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since 1996.

US initial jobless claims are rising. On June 21, they reached a 2012 high.

Slowdown is gaining speed. Economic underpinnings look wobbly. In June alone, about 70% of economic reports showed weakness.

The Fed's Operation Twist extension underwhelmed analysts. Officially it's called the Maturity Extension Program. It exchanges short-term debt for longer term holdings. In theory, it's to lower interest rates on 10-year Treasuries. In early June 22 trading, they stood at 1.63%, a near record low.

Housing remains in Depression. In the week ending June 15, mortgage purchase applications plunged 8.5%. Companies keep cutting planned capex expenditures. According to the latest Architectural Billings Index, commercial construction keeps contracting.

Down 22% from their highs, commodity prices entered bear market territory. Oil prices hit an 18-month low. It signals weak demand. Brent fell 8% in one week. It's down 30% from its earlier high.

US factory output reached an 11-month low. Eurozone business activity dropped for the fifth straight month. At a 48.5 read in June, Germany's PMI shows contraction. The Fed's June Philadelphia manufacturing index contracted sharply to -16.6 after dropping 5.8 points in May.

The Jolts (Job Opening/Labor Turnover) survey showed job openings plunged 325,000 in May. It was the steepest drop since Lehman's September 2008 collapse. Only twice before in the past decade did it decline that much. All major categories were affected.

New hires decreased for the second straight month. They're lowest since July 2011. Again all categories showed weakness.

Layoffs keep increasing. Cuts rose in three of the past four months.

Data revisions are mostly negative. Peak levels were reached months ago. The full impact of how weak things are has yet to hit home. So-called recovery is illusion, not reality.

Europe's economic condition is grim. Bailing out Spain gets harder. Economist Jack Rasmus estimates its banks need at least $300 billion, not the publicly announced $78.75 billion.

He added that hundreds of billions more are needed to rescue Spain's regional and central governments. At issue is who'll supply it. Sick economies can't solve their own problems.

Eurozone ones look to Germany for help. It bears the greatest burden when it's economy is weakening.

Italy's troubled economy combined with its 12-month 29% of GDP sovereign financing burden means it can't contribute much.

Europe's PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) combined with troubled France have a combined public debt of 200% of Germany's GDP. Its own debt to GDP ratio is 80%.

Simple math says it can't backstop the Eurozone. Bailouts can't continue forever. Debt burdened economies head for collapse. Adding more hastens the timeframe.

Troubled Eurozone economies are so weak that cross-border bank-to-bank lending dried up. ECB chairman Mario Draghi calls inter-bank lending "dysfunctional." It's "not working," he said. As it goes, so does business lending altogether.

Rasmus said these developments show deepening crisis conditions. He blames wrongheaded policy measures.

Austerity when stimulus is needed hit hard. Government revenues are down. So is consumption. Business spending keeps falling. Debt keeps rising. A looming train wreck approaches.

Why should households and economies bear the burden of bailing out crooked banks? Why are too big to fail ones allowed to exist? Why do ordinary people put up with politicians scamming them for personal gain? Why do they elect new bums in place of old ones?

When conditions exceed threshold levels too painful to bear, maybe they'll react the way they should have years ago.

A Final Comment

On June 19, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB) issued a "red alert." Global conditions are "negative, even catastrophic," it said.

The second half of 2012 may "mark a major inflection point of the global system crisis...."

Day of reckoning time approaches. Putting off "the inevitable comes at a high price...."

"The shock of the autumn (of) 2008 will seen like a small summer storm compared to what('s)" coming. The "world system" will be "shake(n)."

GEAB predicts a conversion of geopolitical and economic shocks. They include more Middle East wars, Afpak chaos, "Gulf countries swept away in the turmoil," America's economy in free fall, major bank insolvencies, and money printing madness ended because it no longer works.

Early summer perhaps is the calm before the storm. If GEAB is right, it won't be pleasant on arrival.

StephenLendmanBlog

An anime lover quoting blogs from Jews who happen to be aligned with his wishful way of thinking.

Let's get real: The US will still be the strongest country in the world for decades, rivaled by lesser nations which combine their forces to undermine American interests. As it has been for a long time.

Not to mention the fact that every single nationality in the world would love to live in the US, everywhere from Mexico to China. Or the fact that everything that comes out of America influences us all, from movies to technology.