The Path Out of Pakistan's Economic Crisis

[_NOBODY_]

The Path Out of Pakistan's Economic Crisis​

In this episode, we continue our focus on Pakistan’s economic crisis and discuss the way out of it with Dr. Ahmed Pirzada. Dr. Ahmed Pirzada is an Assistant Professor at the University of Bristol, UK. He is also a Fellow of the Higher Education Academy, UK, and the Chair of the independent Economic Advisory Group (EAG), Pakistan.

He specialises in macroeconomics with a focus in monetary policy, and the conversation dives a bit deeper into what he sees as the main drivers of the crisis, the way out of it, and why debt restructuring may be a decent option.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction
01:20 What caused this crisis?
19:37 What decisions exacerbated the crisis recently?
28:30 Distorted exchange rate
35:21 Debt restructuring need
45:30 Painful adjustments in the economy
51:11 Reading recommendations

Reading Recommendations:

- This time is different by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff
- Quantum Enigma by Bruce Rosenblum and Fred Kuttner
- The history of western philosophy by Bertrand Russell

 

[fitpOsitive]

پاکستان کے لوگ یا تو اپنے حکمرانوں سے جان چھڑوالیں، ورنہ ایسی صورتحال میں قدرت کا فیصلہ یہی رہا ہے کہ حکمرانوں کے ساتھ قومیں اور لوگ بھی بدل دیئے جاتے ہیں. اگر آرمی کہتی ہے کہ انکے ہاتھوں میں کچھ نہیں تو پھر فوج کم از کم قوم کی ترقی کی راہ میں رکاوٹوں کو تو دور کر ہی سکتی ہے. اگر فوج خود ہی رکاوٹ ہے تو قوم یقین رکھے کہ نہ فوج رہے گی نہ ہی قوم. اور میرے اندازے کے مطابق یہ سال پاکستان کی زمین پر حرامخوری کا آخری سال ہوگا. باقی اصل علم بیشک اللہ ہی کے پاس ہے.

 

[_NOBODY_]

پاکستان کے لوگ یا تو اپنے حکمرانوں سے جان چھڑوالیں، ورنہ ایسی صورتحال میں قدرت کا فیصلہ یہی رہا ہے کہ حکمرانوں کے ساتھ قومیں اور لوگ بھی بدل دیئے جاتے ہیں. اگر آرمی کہتی ہے کہ انکے ہاتھوں میں کچھ نہیں تو پھر فوج کم از کم قوم کی ترقی کی راہ میں رکاوٹوں کو تو دور کر ہی سکتی ہے. اگر فوج خود ہی رکاوٹ ہے تو قوم یقین رکھے کہ نہ فوج رہے گی نہ ہی قوم. اور میرے اندازے کے مطابق یہ سال پاکستان کی زمین پر حرامخوری کا آخری سال ہوگا. باقی اصل علم بیشک اللہ ہی کے پاس ہے.

Pakistanis deserve these leaders. This nation is rotten to the core, I see ordinary citizens commit corruption every single day here.

 

[FuturePAF]

How about changes to the tax code?

The following is a three part video thread (short videos but lay out that it’s not the private industry that is failing, but mismanagement and corruption as well as a failure in the tax and tariff codes)

Increasing the taxes on electricity will hurt the textile industry even further and hurt the middle and working classes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616055204885204994

 

[Enigma SIG]

My DP is the only path out of economic crisis.

 

[VCheng]

The Path Out of Pakistan's Economic Crisis

The path out is well known and clear. The problem is a willful decision not to take said path.

 

[_NOBODY_]

The path out is well known and clear. The problem is a willful decision not to take said path.

Let's pray that our country starts walking on this path before it's too late.

 

[Enigma SIG]

Let's pray that our country starts walking on this path before it's too late.

Plent of people need to walk down to the gallows for this country to have a shot at revival.

 

[VCheng]

Let's pray that our country starts walking on this path before it's too late.

Let us bray, brother. Indeed. But perhaps actually starting to walk would be slightly more effective. Just a thought.

 

[_NOBODY_]

Let us bray, brother. Indeed. But perhaps actually starting to walk would be slightly more effective. Just a thought.

This is why I am braying to God to grant our leaders the will to walk this path.

 

[VCheng]

This is why I am braying to God to grant our leaders the will to walk this path.

It is the whole nation that needs to start walking, actually. As I said elsewhere:

Painful as all that surely is, Pakistanis must get used to the idea of a free floating currency value based on productivity, and to pay the actual cost of energy that is not subsidized. Only then can it hope to start putting its books in order. There is no other way. The IMF is not the villain here. What it suggests is what needs to be done according to sound financial principles.

 

[_NOBODY_]

It is the whole nation that needs to start walking, actually. As I said elsewhere:

I can never wrap my head around the fact our leaders think that pegging the currency to the dollar is smart, especially in the current situation. The amount of money that our retarded leaders have wasted on pegging the rupee could have been used to build 4 metro trains which could have reduced our import bill and grown our economy by enabling so much mobility.

 

[VCheng]

I can never wrap my head around the fact our leaders think that pegging the currency to the dollar is smart, especially in the current situation. The amount of money that our retarded leaders have wasted on pegging the rupee could have been used to build 4 metro trains which could have reduced our import bill and grown our economy by enabling so much mobility.

Forget the leaders, what is amazing is the number of (mis)leaders here on PDF, who (should) know better, but keep portraying IMF as the problem, and those utter fools who swallow that lie hook, line and sinker, when in fact, what the IMF prescribes are sound financial steps that are a must in setting Pakistan on the correct remedial path. And we refuse to do so. Consistently. Every damn time.

 

[PakFactor]

Forget the leaders, what is amazing is the number of (mis)leaders here on PDF, who (should) know better, but keep portraying IMF as the problem, and those utter fools who swallow that lie hook, line and sinker, when in fact, what the IMF prescribes are sound financial steps that are a must in setting Pakistan on the correct remedial path. And we refuse to do so. Consistently. Every damn time.

Loans are never wrong as long the utilization of funds brings a steady and consistent Net Profit.

 

[blain2]

Forget the leaders, what is amazing is the number of (mis)leaders here on PDF, who (should) know better, but keep portraying IMF as the problem, and those utter fools who swallow that lie hook, line and sinker, when in fact, what the IMF prescribes are sound financial steps that are a must in setting Pakistan on the correct remedial path. And we refuse to do so. Consistently. Every damn time.

It's a bitter pill which is why the politicians (never fiscally conservative) and the hapless sheep don't want to understand IMF programs. There are many examples in SE Asia and Europe that have stuck with the IMF programs to recover their economies for the long term.

We are on something like the 12th IMF program and not one has been completed by this godforsaken country.