ARTICLE (May 07 2009): Imagine you are the head of a sovereign state. You have been invited to visit another country by its head. A week before your visit, the head of the government in that country tells the whole world that your government is extremely fragile, that it is not able to gain the support and loyalty of the people of your country, that your government's hold on power was weak because it could not provide basic services to the people, including education, health care and a widely accepted system of law and judicial administration.
Leaving feelings aside, what would you do in a scenario of this kind? Would you ignore the inopportune and discourteous broadside? Would you lodge a strong protest? Would you recall your ambassador? Would you call off the visit? Side by side with this belittling of Pakistan's civilian authority by the US, there are signs of extolling the military, through both official and formal, as well as informal channels.
Almost every visit abroad by the President or Prime Minister is followed by a visit by the Army Chief Kayani. Probably the foreign ministers and heads of state get more sense out of him than from the confused set of our political leaders and government functionaries, many of whom were chosen without considerations of merit and experience any way.
Contacts between the US army people (General Petraeus for example) and General Kayani have been on the increase. General Petraeus is reported to be seeking a special budget allocation of $400 million for a new "Pakistan Counterinsurgency Capability Fund" (PCCF) for the rest of 2009 with an additional $700 million for 2010, which would be channelled directly through US Central Command.
This scheme is in addition to and distinct from Foreign Military Financing funds and will be a military to military affair. A news headline of last Saturday reads "Pentagon seeks wartime powers for dealing with Pakistan". Under the proposal "the US Central Command will have the same unfettered authority in its dealings with Pakistan as it enjoys in the combat zones of Iraq and Afghanistan". This is hair-raising.
Is any one here bothered or even knowledgeable about the implications? The first question that comes to mind is whether Obama's remarks were chance, off-the-cuff remarks, and not the result of careful, calculated foresight on the subject.
This reminds me of the "chance" meeting President Musharraf had with Israel's Prime Minister Sharon (the butcher of Schattila) during a United Nations gathering, when Musharraf walked up to Sharon to shake hands. When asked about the "chance" meeting later, Sharon quipped "with me there is nothing by chance" or words to that effect.
So much for the "chance" remark theory! Question two is did President Obama take into account the possibility that his remarks might lead to calling off of the visit or may be sour relations to the extent that the visit may not yield any results. Here again it would be naïve to think that Obama did not consider the possibility. Most likely he did and reached the conclusion that the President of Pakistan was in no position to take a drastic step in response.
MONEY, MONEY AND MORE MONEY In the first place, whenever President Zardari talks to America, he ends up asking for more money, more than anything else. Total dependence on America for the very survival of Pakistan as a viable state is evidenced by his statements about the relationship between the two countries. Our policies and actions indicate an attitude towards our "great ally" no less servile than those under Musharraf.
There is no indication that the government is working on any contingency plan to deal with a situation of sudden and total cut off of "aid" (actually mainly interest bearing loans) due to whatever reason. In this situation President Obama may be forgiven for thinking that America can walk rough shod over Pakistan (a country of 180 million people) or its government, without the risk of a strong unpleasant (for US) reaction.
The question is, need US-Pak relations be really so lop-sided? If we need America to help us get out of the financial mess we have landed ourselves into, over the decades, under successive governments, does not America (presently reeling under its own financial crisis which is playing havoc with its economy) need us as badly, to get out of the mess of its own creation in Afghanistan?
Can it do without the supply lines to its increasing troop count in that country - supply lines that pass through this country for which there is no viable alternative? Can America fight the Taliban in Afghanistan (whose government it toppled in the wake of the 9/11 disaster) or at least make an "honourable" exit without active support - logistic, manpower and intelligence - from Pakistan?
Can it afford to lose us as an active partner in its war in Afghanistan? If it cannot - and it is certain that it cannot - why do we need to be so servile in dealing with our great "ally" in the west?
Those wretched people who continue to desperately defend our foreign policy vis-à-vis America in TV discussions frequently come up with the rhetorical question: can we fight America? The "logic" behind the question is, since we cannot, so you must do whatever America tells you to do. These people cannot see any thing but black and white. The short answer to them would be: go say that to Iran, to Cuba, to Venezuela, to North Korea!
An interesting theory going round which seeks to explain Obama's attack on the government in Pakistan is that Zardari had reneged on a secret agreement he had with US and Obama showed his displeasure by his unusual verbal onslaught.
Ominous prophecy Right on the heels of Obama's discourteous statement, came an ominous prophecy from the increasingly interfering US Central Command chief David Petraeus that "if militants were not defeated within the next few weeks, the Pakistani government may collapse".
The cold water being thus thrown on the aspirations of our rulers makes one wonder what the great idea behind it might be. As expected, there followed damage control statements from Holbrooke, saying America has full confidence in Pak civilian government. This doublespeak, this hypocrisy is despicable, to say the least. But it is unfortunate that there is no one to tell it to the Americans.
And this is not the first time. Less than two weeks ago Secretary of State Clinton alleged that the Pakistani Government was abdicating to the Taliban and other militants and that "nuclear-armed Pakistan was becoming a mortal threat to the world". A few days later she came out with a retraction of sorts apportioning part of the blame for the mess in Afghanistan to America's non-action for several years.
As we write this, in yet another doublespeak, Holbrooke (emerging as the main damage limiting expert for the US) has sought to assure the civilian set up in Pakistan that US is fully behind the civilian government and has no intention of supporting military rule in Pakistan and that the US goal "must be to support and help stabilise a democratic Pakistan headed by its elected president, Asif Ali Zardari".
Will the damage done to the present civilian set up in Pakistan by the scathing attack on it by the President of the United States of America, be rectified by this retraction of sorts by only the US especial envoy, is a moot point. While the President lay low, the Prime Minister took it upon himself to counter Obama and in an indirect swipe at US said his government had been in power for only one year, while Washington tolerated General Musharraf's non-democratic regime for nine years.
That was good tit for tat. But the fact is that it is difficult to disagree with Obama's assessment that that the civilian government in Pakistan is fragile. It is another matter that a considerable part of the fragility can be traced to our "partnership" with Mr Obama's country.
As for the "only one year" of civilian rule in the PM's statement, one is aghast at how many blunders and missteps were committed by our civilian government in that "only one year". The list is long, vexing and exasperating in the extreme.
Starting with reneging on written agreements with other parties, poor handling of the Mumbai incident and of Indian air force intrusions into our territory, hurriedly taken decisions recanted soon in a volte-face, resisting tooth and nail the popular and just demand for restoration of illegally deposed judiciary and later succumbing to pressure to agree to the demand, allegedly putting together a docile judiciary to get the decisions of one's choice, dragging one's feet on the issue of restoring the power of the parliament, antagonising the major allied political party by (allegedly) illegally dismissing its provincial government, by highly partisan policies defying democratic norms, inducting huge unwieldy cabinets, adopting lavish life styles, travelling around in chartered planes with large entourages as political favour, appointment of incompetent cronies to positions of high responsibility, over concern for (prohibitively expensive) self security by President down, are some of the reasons why the government under President Zardari has lost much ground already and continues to slide by the month. (owajid@yahoo.com)