The Great War of 2022

[NightStrike]

PART I :

It's 0700 on Sunday January 23rd of 2022. The skies are blue without a single cloud over the Persian gulf. An armed Iranian F-4 makes a close pass to a US naval destroyer that was entering the Gulf of Oman but is quickly warned off. The Iranians repeat the same maneuver later that morning despite multiple warnings from the US destroyer. The Americans decide to engage and launch a surface to air missile, knocking the aircraft out and killing the Iranian pilot.

The Iranians are infuriated but decide on a calculated response and avoid directly attacking US naval assets. President Trumps hails the US response and states the Iranians have effectively been deterred from further aggression.

By now the Iranian economy has continued it's decline , shrinking 10% since President Trump won the 2020 election. Unemployment has also increased dramatically in the same period. Civil unrest is becoming the norm in Iran but does not present an existential threat to the Iranian government.

The Iranian supreme leader estimates that the greater risk lies in continuing the status quo and decides to escalate the ongoing conflict and issues an order for a multi-pronged response.

On February 7th, an Iranian Kilo class submarine is loaded with a dozen surface to surface Dezful missiles and embarks on a secret mission to Yemen. Upon entering Yemeni waters, Iranian special forces unload the cargo with the help of small groups of Houthi fighters. The missiles are then driven north to designated hiding locations.

This transfer of precision guided missiles continues for weeks until the Houthi's stockpile reaches 80.

In the mean time, the Iranians have continued their efforts in convincing the United Arab Emirates to side with them , or suffer destruction in case of war. The UAE reluctantly agrees and calls for talks between all parties to de-escalate tensions.

Iran decides to apply maximum pressure and issues a 30 day warning to Europe and the US to lift sanctions against their country or Iran will leave the NPT. The west calls Iran's move nuclear blackmail and call for an emergency UNSC meeting to address Iran's unrelenting pursuit of a nuclear weapon. The Russians and the Chinese call Iran's decision regrettable but ultimately pin the blame on western sanctions and veto a resolution that calls for Iran to immediately cease enriching uranium.

In the early hours of March 19th, a dozen Houthi missiles are launched targeting the Yanbu refinery in Saudi Arabia, killing 18 workers and causing significant damage, effectively shutting down operations. The Saudis blame Iran and respond by dozens of aerial strikes on Sanaa that predominantly kill civilians.

The west condemns the attacks and another UNSC meeting is held calling for a more stronger coalition of nations to finally evict the Houthis from the Yemeni capital. Behind closed doors Germany, France, and Canada refuse to join this new coalition. Russia vetoes the measure and China abstains.

The Israelis see this as the ultimate opportunity to set Iran back two decades with military strikes. Netanyahu pressures Trump into a decisive kinetic response but Trump refuses and sees a better chance of success with the Yemeni campaign.

A massive US force is sent to Saudi Arabia and preparations are made to take Sanaa from the Houthis at all costs. The Iranian national security council meets and assesses Sanaa will fall within 10 weeks, and they must act in order to save the Houthis.

The new coalition begin massive air strikes against targets in Northern Yemen.

PART 2 coming soon

 

[litman]

PART 2:
bablu uth jao. school ka time ho gia hay.

 

[Maxpane]

wow imagination at its peak

 

[Bengal71]

Kilo submarine should not have enough space to carry a dozen of ballistic missiles. It's not a cargo ship.

 

[masterchief_mirza]

Excellent! More please

 

[NightStrike]

PART 2:

Fear is in the air as coalition forces strike Sanaa while moving troops into Yemen from the east. The Houthis attack Riyadh at a more regular rate with ballistic missiles, causing significant pressure on Mohammad bin Salman to end the war quickly. The Tadawal stock exchange is now down to 2009 levels with multiple trading sessions getting halted as circuit breakers activate.

Across the gulf, Iran is not willing to lose the Houthis but decides against attacking coalition forces to avoid international blame for starting a war. However, they decide to escalate in hopes of inviting the US and their arab allies into a regional war.

The arabs do not want a hot conflict with Iran but insist on Trump to continue the fight against Iran's proxies and the economic siege. Iran's ultimatum to withdraw from the NPT is nearing and Iran kicks out all IAEA personnel from their nuclear facilities.

Coalition forces enter outskirts of Houthi controlled areas from the east, who are entrenching themselves for a guerilla style defense with small groups. The fighting is intense and many lose their life as international human rights group condemn the attack on Yemen as exacerbating the already prolonged conflict.

For the Saudis, taking over Yemen is an existential must as they are not willing to live with an Iran backed group on their southern border. They refuse to repeat the Israeli experience in Lebanon and push thru by financing the entire war and more.

Late April Iran's new foreign minister announces withdrawal from the NPT. Iran decides to move towards the nuclear bomb, utilizing newer centrifuges to enrich at a secret underground site. The Iranians can produce 90 percent grade uranium within 8 weeks as they draw from their already enriched uranium of 20%.

The US fifth fleet is dispatched out of the Persian Gulf as tensions rise and emergency meetings are held in the UNSC and across capitals of the coalition. China is vehemently opposed to striking Iran. The Russians publicly denounce any possible attack on Iran but behind close doors see a US- Iran conflict as a lucrative way to weaken their adversary while forcing Iran to depend more on Russian assistance.

Finally this was the moment Benjamin Netanyahu was waiting for. In the early morning hours of May 17th, 2022 President Trump announces that a military strike on Iran will commence with the aim of stopping Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

Behind close doors, intelligence agencies are furious as their information suggests such an attack will not prevent Iran from building a bomb.

The United States with the logistical help of their NATO and Arab allies begin launching tomahawk cruise missiles against Iran's key military infrastructure. 450 cruise missiles are launched within a period of 8 hours. The Iranians are hit hard but survive the initial onslaught as the nuclear sites are emptied.

The Iranians begin a retaliatory response by attacking coalition bases across the middle east with lethal accuracy and move to mine the strait of Hormuz. Iranian submarines hunt near the entrance of the gulf for Coalition vessels while f-22s and F35s manage to gain aerial superiority over the southern part of Iranian airspace, paving the way for a more robust bombing campaign of Iran's coastal infrastructure and continuing operations to degrade Iran's air defense network.

Oil gains a modest 10% as strategists bet on a quick conflict and for the coalition to reopen the strait of Hormuz within weeks. Iran continues to strike coalition bases , making inoperable over 20 fighter jets on the ground. The Russians feed Iran with satellite imagery of coalition movements allowing for surprisingly accurate strikes by drones and ballistic missiles.

Protests are held across Iranian cities and globally condemning the attacks. Jeremy Corbyn calls the attacks illegal and that the UK should have no involvement. Putin states Russia is not a firefighter and urges Iran and the coalition to talk. The coalition prepares to attack Iran's nuclear sites with a force of more than 130 fighter jets. 4 main sites sites are attacked by air as the IAEA warns of significant radiation risk. The busheher plant is spared due to its proximity to the gulf.

Iranian air defense units survive initial SEAD operations by hiding their mobile systems into mountains and resorting to hit and run tactics. They manage to hit 16 fighter jets as the war escalates.

Radiation leaks from the damaged Iranian nuclear sites kill over 5000 civilians in the vicinity of the sites and exposes more than 1.7 million to dangerous levels of radiation. Iran continues enriching uranium at a secret underground facility deep in Iran.

The Iranians decide to escalate further and warn the Arabs to stop hosting coalition forces. Oman, UAE, and Kuwait ban US forces from taking action against Iran from their territory. Iran attacks critical energy infrastructure in the gulf, increasing the price of oil to more than 110 dollars a barrel.

World oil prices increase as economists predict a global economic depression within 6 months. The Iranians are damaged severely but maintain their ability to launch ballistic missile and drone strikes against targets across the gulf. The entire region is effected except Lebanon and Israel.

Iranian proxy Hezbollah and Israel decide that it isnt in their interest to get dragged into a war, but Iran has other plans. As the regional pressure mounts Iran decides to launch ballistic missile strikes against Tel Aviv leading to significant damage and causalities.

The campaign agaisnt the Houthis stalls as Iranian missiles damage key air and forward operating bases in the effort against Yemen. The Iranians suffer significant damage to their oil and manufacturing infrastructures.

Tensions rise, the Kabul government falls as Taliban militants seize the capital. The Golan heights becomes more active as shelling takes place between Syrian and Israeli forces on the border. Israel warns Syria and Hezbollah not to initiate any misadventures as Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel with limited accuracy.

Airports are shut down across the region and global economies begin to show cracks. The S&P 500 crashes to 2100 as gasoline prices increase to 5 dollars a gallon.

The United States sends Iran a message of peace and States willing to talk to stop the conflict. The Iranians refuse and the strikes continue against Arab cities across the region. Iranian proxies in Iraq force the US embassy in Baghdad to close as anti-corruption protests occur throughout Iraq.

The Saudis see an ever increasing risk in continuing the conflict as their airports remain shut down and their oil infrastructure is rendered inoperable. The coalition responds to Iranian attacks against oil infrastructure by punishing airstrikes on Tehran.

The appetite for a ground war is limited, but the conflict thus far has had limited success in bringing quick Iranian capitulation.

Part 3 coming soon

 

[raptor22]

In any possible war due to complete annihilation of all aggressive forces in the region the only thing that would get altered is balance of power in the region by tilting towards Iran ..

 

[SocioWorker]

PART I :

It's 0700 on Sunday January 23rd of 2022. The skies are blue without a single cloud over the Persian gulf. An armed Iranian F-4 makes a close pass to a US naval destroyer that was entering the Gulf of Oman but is quickly warned off. The Iranians repeat the same maneuver later that morning despite multiple warnings from the US destroyer. The Americans decide to engage and launch a surface to air missile, knocking the aircraft out and killing the Iranian pilot.

The Iranians are infuriated but decide on a calculated response and avoid directly attacking US naval assets. President Trumps hails the US response and states the Iranians have effectively been deterred from further aggression.

By now the Iranian economy has continued it's decline , shrinking 10% since President Trump won the 2020 election. Unemployment has also increased dramatically in the same period. Civil unrest is becoming the norm in Iran but does not present an existential threat to the Iranian government.

The Iranian supreme leader estimates that the greater risk lies in continuing the status quo and decides to escalate the ongoing conflict and issues an order for a multi-pronged response.

On February 7th, an Iranian Kilo class submarine is loaded with a dozen surface to surface Dezful missiles and embarks on a secret mission to Yemen. Upon entering Yemeni waters, Iranian special forces unload the cargo with the help of small groups of Houthi fighters. The missiles are then driven north to designated hiding locations.

This transfer of precision guided missiles continues for weeks until the Houthi's stockpile reaches 80.

In the mean time, the Iranians have continued their efforts in convincing the United Arab Emirates to side with them , or suffer destruction in case of war. The UAE reluctantly agrees and calls for talks between all parties to de-escalate tensions.

Iran decides to apply maximum pressure and issues a 30 day warning to Europe and the US to lift sanctions against their country or Iran will leave the NPT. The west calls Iran's move nuclear blackmail and call for an emergency UNSC meeting to address Iran's unrelenting pursuit of a nuclear weapon. The Russians and the Chinese call Iran's decision regrettable but ultimately pin the blame on western sanctions and veto a resolution that calls for Iran to immediately cease enriching uranium.

In the early hours of March 19th, a dozen Houthi missiles are launched targeting the Yanbu refinery in Saudi Arabia, killing 18 workers and causing significant damage, effectively shutting down operations. The Saudis blame Iran and respond by dozens of aerial strikes on Sanaa that predominantly kill civilians.

The west condemns the attacks and another UNSC meeting is held calling for a more stronger coalition of nations to finally evict the Houthis from the Yemeni capital. Behind closed doors Germany, France, and Canada refuse to join this new coalition. Russia vetoes the measure and China abstains.

The Israelis see this as the ultimate opportunity to set Iran back two decades with military strikes. Netanyahu pressures Trump into a decisive kinetic response but Trump refuses and sees a better chance of success with the Yemeni campaign.

A massive US force is sent to Saudi Arabia and preparations are made to take Sanaa from the Houthis at all costs. The Iranian national security council meets and assesses Sanaa will fall within 10 weeks, and they must act in order to save the Houthis.

The new coalition begin massive air strikes against targets in Northern Yemen.

PART 2 coming soon

One Hell of a Write up man ! What is it an excerpt of some published War Commentary? Pretty insightful though, Good Job

 

[NightStrike]

One Hell of a Write up man ! What is it an excerpt of some published War Commentary? Pretty insightful though, Good Job

Thank you. I do admit it is overly dramatic and unlikely to unfold as I'm suggesting. Iran is likely to continue to avoid a conflict and slowly build up pressure by enriching to 60% under the guise of needing such levels for propulsion systems.

Such a conflict regardless of how it happens would be devastating to the region for years to come.

 

[YeBeWarned]

The Great war ended, Arya killed the Night king ..

 

[Falcon29]

How about you just focus on your country and quit thinking about killing Arabs all the time. Develop ties with your neighbors in east Asia too.

 

[SocioWorker]

Thank you. I do admit it is overly dramatic and unlikely to unfold as I'm suggesting. Iran is likely to continue to avoid a conflict and slowly build up pressure by enriching to 60% under the guise of needing such levels for propulsion systems.

Such a conflict regardless of how it happens would be devastating to the region for years to come.

it has gone to a whole different level than flying planes bombing innocent people. it can probably lift national esteem for a few days but Control over Economic Stabilities and breaking any country's international alliances is what is being observed in Asia and I think quite a bit to be done here for Peace and No War Ideology.

 

[The SC]

PART 2:

Fear is in the air as coalition forces strike Sanaa while moving troops into Yemen from the east. The Houthis attack Riyadh at a more regular rate with ballistic missiles, causing significant pressure on Mohammad bin Salman to end the war quickly. The Tadawal stock exchange is now down to 2009 levels with multiple trading sessions getting halted as circuit breakers activate.

Across the gulf, Iran is not willing to lose the Houthis but decides against attacking coalition forces to avoid international blame for starting a war. However, they decide to escalate in hopes of inviting the US and their arab allies into a regional war.

The arabs do not want a hot conflict with Iran but insist on Trump to continue the fight against Iran's proxies and the economic siege. Iran's ultimatum to withdraw from the NPT is nearing and Iran kicks out all IAEA personnel from their nuclear facilities.

Coalition forces enter outskirts of Houthi controlled areas from the east, who are entrenching themselves for a guerilla style defense with small groups. The fighting is intense and many lose their life as international human rights group condemn the attack on Yemen as exacerbating the already prolonged conflict.

For the Saudis, taking over Yemen is an existential must as they are not willing to live with an Iran backed group on their southern border. They refuse to repeat the Israeli experience in Lebanon and push thru by financing the entire war and more.

Late April Iran's new foreign minister announces withdrawal from the NPT. Iran decides to move towards the nuclear bomb, utilizing newer centrifuges to enrich at a secret underground site. The Iranians can produce 90 percent grade uranium within 8 weeks as they draw from their already enriched uranium of 20%.

The US fifth fleet is dispatched out of the Persian Gulf as tensions rise and emergency meetings are held in the UNSC and across capitals of the coalition. China is vehemently opposed to striking Iran. The Russians publicly denounce any possible attack on Iran but behind close doors see a US- Iran conflict as a lucrative way to weaken their adversary while forcing Iran to depend more on Russian assistance.

Finally this was the moment Benjamin Netanyahu was waiting for. In the early morning hours of May 17th, 2022 President Trump announces that a military strike on Iran will commence with the aim of stopping Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

Behind close doors, intelligence agencies are furious as their information suggests such an attack will not prevent Iran from building a bomb.

The United States with the logistical help of their NATO and Arab allies begin launching tomahawk cruise missiles against Iran's key military infrastructure. 450 cruise missiles are launched within a period of 8 hours. The Iranians are hit hard but survive the initial onslaught as the nuclear sites are emptied.

The Iranians begin a retaliatory response by attacking coalition bases across the middle east with lethal accuracy and move to mine the strait of Hormuz. Iranian submarines hunt near the entrance of the gulf for Coalition vessels while f-22s and F35s manage to gain aerial superiority over the southern part of Iranian airspace, paving the way for a more robust bombing campaign of Iran's coastal infrastructure and continuing operations to degrade Iran's air defense network.

Oil gains a modest 10% as strategists bet on a quick conflict and for the coalition to reopen the strait of Hormuz within weeks. Iran continues to strike coalition bases , making inoperable over 20 fighter jets on the ground. The Russians feed Iran with satellite imagery of coalition movements allowing for surprisingly accurate strikes by drones and ballistic missiles.

Protests are held across Iranian cities and globally condemning the attacks. Jeremy Corbyn calls the attacks illegal and that the UK should have no involvement. Putin states Russia is not a firefighter and urges Iran and the coalition to talk. The coalition prepares to attack Iran's nuclear sites with a force of more than 130 fighter jets. 4 main sites sites are attacked by air as the IAEA warns of significant radiation risk. The busheher plant is spared due to its proximity to the gulf.

Iranian air defense units survive initial SEAD operations by hiding their mobile systems into mountains and resorting to hit and run tactics. They manage to hit 16 fighter jets as the war escalates.

Radiation leaks from the damaged Iranian nuclear sites kill over 5000 civilians in the vicinity of the sites and exposes more than 1.7 million to dangerous levels of radiation. Iran continues enriching uranium at a secret underground facility deep in Iran.

The Iranians decide to escalate further and warn the Arabs to stop hosting coalition forces. Oman, UAE, and Kuwait ban US forces from taking action against Iran from their territory. Iran attacks critical energy infrastructure in the gulf, increasing the price of oil to more than 110 dollars a barrel.

World oil prices increase as economists predict a global economic depression within 6 months. The Iranians are damaged severely but maintain their ability to launch ballistic missile and drone strikes against targets across the gulf. The entire region is effected except Lebanon and Israel.

Iranian proxy Hezbollah and Israel decide that it isnt in their interest to get dragged into a war, but Iran has other plans. As the regional pressure mounts Iran decides to launch ballistic missile strikes against Tel Aviv leading to significant damage and causalities.

The campaign agaisnt the Houthis stalls as Iranian missiles damage key air and forward operating bases in the effort against Yemen. The Iranians suffer significant damage to their oil and manufacturing infrastructures.

Tensions rise, the Kabul government falls as Taliban militants seize the capital. The Golan heights becomes more active as shelling takes place between Syrian and Israeli forces on the border. Israel warns Syria and Hezbollah not to initiate any misadventures as Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel with limited accuracy.

Airports are shut down across the region and global economies begin to show cracks. The S&P 500 crashes to 2100 as gasoline prices increase to 5 dollars a gallon.

The United States sends Iran a message of peace and States willing to talk to stop the conflict. The Iranians refuse and the strikes continue against Arab cities across the region. Iranian proxies in Iraq force the US embassy in Baghdad to close as anti-corruption protests occur throughout Iraq.

The Saudis see an ever increasing risk in continuing the conflict as their airports remain shut down and their oil infrastructure is rendered inoperable. The coalition responds to Iranian attacks against oil infrastructure by punishing airstrikes on Tehran.

The appetite for a ground war is limited, but the conflict thus far has had limited success in bringing quick Iranian capitulation.

Part 3 coming soon

Those kilo class submarines have to surface to deliver anything to Houthis..and that is the weakest side of submarines, they'll be sinked the first time they surface.. so forget those 80 Iranian missiles in Yemen..tis changes many important things in your scenario..

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

Last time I checked KSA is in possession of the biggest and most deadly ballistic missiles and missiles as a whole along with Israel in the region, with the longest reach courtesy of KSA-China and KSA-Pakistani cooperation for the past 30+ years.

Not only that, KSA will have the best anti-missile defense with the newest patriots, THAAD and S-400 and whatever else is being worked out with Ukraine, China and Pakistan.

Longest coastline in the region, access to two seas, Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea next door, largest landmass in the region (by far) and 100's of underground bases. Only historically unconquered landmass in the region moreover.

Anyone thinking to attack Bilad al-Haramain will not only have 500+ million Arabs against him but most of the 1.7 billion Muslims and all the superpowers against him almost. Good luck thinking that any regional country will come out unharmed against such an opponent. Not even going to talk about the best air force second to Israel (only due to Israel being a US state) in the region.