The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[Chinese-Dragon]

Harder to effectively enforce on naval blockage on China in the future since China will at least formed 2 aircraft battle group with the next 6 yrs, SCS within range of China land base air force, China on their process to build the unsinkable carrier on the far post of SCS. In other to contain China navy in SCS, the many layers of defense have to be defeat for other naval forces keep China navy away from the SCS. China just need naval base in Cambodia will effectively provide the protection needed for China navy from the front to the rear of the naval conflict zone. Russia also the key to provide China raw material in case of China face the any naval blockage, China can use the land route through Pakistan to have raw material deliver to China. If the Silk Road being construct in the near future, China will have good option to sustain supply line of raw material in the future conflict. Japan is an islets form nation without any land connectivity with other nation, Japan will always susceptible to naval blockage more so than China.

DF-21D will be our primary defense against blockade.

According to a US analyst, we can build 1,127+ of our DF-21D for the cost of a single American aircraft carrier. And according to the US defence department itself, even one single warhead is enough to sink a carrier.

And the cost of the carrier is not counting all the expensive jet fighters on board, and the 9000 naval personnel. Or the amount of time it will take to rebuild the carrier, the planes, and to replace those personnel.

It can never be cost effective for America to trade their aircraft carriers for large salvos of DF-21D, not even close. They will only do that if it is a WW3 type situation.

And we will be upgrading the DF-21D with HGV warheads, and possibly allow them to be launched from submarines as well. The HGV warheads will massively extend the range to several thousand kilometers, and make them nearly impossible to intercept (as well as adding enormous maneuverability and accuracy).

On the supply side, we already have numerous pipelines to Central Asia, and we are now doing the same with Russia. We also have significant domestic oil reserves, we are currently the 5th largest producer of oil in the world. We can boost our domestic production, and import more oil over land pipelines. Combined with our strategic emergency reserves of oil it should not significantly impact our domestic oil supply unless the conflict stretches for a long period of time.

We do have a vulnerability, but we also have plenty of counter-measures, and can withstand the storm for a long time.

 

[terranMarine]

Lastly, I want to reiterate that United States, China and Japan are the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd greatest economies in the world, respectively. A war involving these three great powers will lead to a global economic crisis of epic proportions.

That we can all agree on

As for viewing Russia playing the 2nd fiddle by @LeveragedBuyout, i understand the points he has made but just like the rest of my fellow countrymen China does not view Russia as a subordinate even if some Russian businessmen might share the same sentiment as he does. It's a fact China has a way bigger economy, we are getting more advanced, we can diversify our energy resources from the ME region or Venezuela but why should we exclude dealing with Russia on this matter? Even China who financed the biggest share of the BRICS bank doesn't view the rest of the members as subordinates.
Perhaps Russia needs China more than vice versa in regards to the sanctions placed by the Western countries recently but the same thing can be said of US responsible for the weapon embargo on China. Russia was willing to sell to China so does that mean either one of us is a subordinate of the other one since Russia was broke and China had no where else to turn to?

I believe both countries can learn from one another in many fields and a closer cooperation is certainly welcome. Russia continues to play an important role in geopolitics especially in the Eurasian region, what to think of the revival of the silk road connecting all the way to EU? Sadly Western analysts love driving a wedge between us, it's something our leaders should ignore. To our partnership

 

[Steakhouse]

DF-21D will be our primary defense against blockade.

According to a US analyst, we can build 1,127+ of our DF-21D for the cost of a single American aircraft carrier. And according to the US defence department itself, even one single warhead is enough to sink a carrier.

And the cost of the carrier is not counting all the expensive jet fighters on board, and the 9000 naval personnel. Or the amount of time it will take to rebuild the carrier, the planes, and to replace those personnel.

It can never be cost effective for America to trade their aircraft carriers for large salvos of DF-21D, not even close. They will only do that if it is a WW3 type situation.

And we will be upgrading the DF-21D with HGV warheads, and possibly allow them to be launched from submarines as well. The HGV warheads will massively extend the range to several thousand kilometers, and make them nearly impossible to intercept (as well as adding enormous maneuverability and accuracy).

On the supply side, we already have numerous pipelines to Central Asia, and we are now doing the same with Russia. We also have significant domestic oil reserves, we are currently the 5th largest producer of oil in the world. We can boost our domestic production, and import more oil over land pipelines. Combined with our strategic emergency reserves of oil it should not significantly impact our domestic oil supply unless the conflict stretches for a long period of time.

DF21 isn't a single stand alone game change weapon without depend on other subsystem for it to work, df21 not a wonder system can solely destroy US naval force. In other for the land base df21 to take out a carrier, it need to tract, real time located a moving object by a imaging satellite, spy aircraft or drone. Without visual confirming the location of the object, the missile will blindly fired into the vast empty ocean.

 

[F-22Raptor]

A naval blockade of China would prove to be quite effective in my estimation. China's ability to wage sustained high intensity warfare diminishes the further away you get from its coast, due to a heavy reliance on its land based missile and aircraft forces. At the opening of a conflict, the US would strike at China's space and maritime ISR nodes which provides target and track capabilities across the Pacific. It's essentially a blinding campaign to degrade the effectiveness of China's land based missile forces. The US would also target Chinese airfields, command and control, and naval ports further degrading Chinese capability to fight and sustain at long ranges. Due to the advanced US submarine force, long range strike capability, and logistical edge, the US could wreck the Chinese economy to put it bluntly. Obviously, such a scenario would be devastating for the world economy, but it is a strategy that would be implemented.

This is why it's so important to setup the necessary parameters to prevent miscalculations. Lines of communication will be integral moving forward.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Would people stop talking about a Naval blockade.
This is the 21st century. Blockades are done with phone calls not physical ships.

 

[Steakhouse]

A naval blockade of China would prove to be quite effective in my estimation. China's ability to wage sustained high intensity warfare diminishes the further away you get from its coast, due to a heavy reliance on its land based missile and aircraft forces. At the opening of a conflict, the US would strike at China's space and maritime ISR nodes which provides target and track capabilities across the Pacific. It's essentially a blinding campaign to degrade the effectiveness of China's land based missile forces. The US would also target Chinese airfields, command and control, and naval ports further degrading Chinese capability to fight and sustain at long ranges. Due to the advanced US submarine force, long range strike capability, and logistical edge, the US could wreck the Chinese economy to put it bluntly. Obviously, such a scenario would be devastating for the world economy, but it is a strategy that would be implemented.

This is why it's so important to setup the necessary parameters to prevent miscalculations. Lines of communication will be integral moving forward.

Naval blockade mean to cut off raw material supply line to China through sea route, since Russia can easily supply raw material to China, China will never starve for material. China build up the naval force if totally concentrated on protecting the SCS then China navy can be a formidable force against any navy in SCS. Implement naval blockade against China not be an easily task without the risk of many naval assets destroyed in the process.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Naval blockade mean to cut off raw material supply line to China through sea route, since Russia can easily supply raw material to China, China will never starve for material. China build up the naval force if totally concentrated on protecting the SCS then China navy can be a formidable force against any navy in SCS. Implement naval blockade against China not be an easily task without the risk of many naval assets destroyed in the process.

This whole talk is silly. Any ship (that isn't a neighboring country) would be stopped over 1000 miles away before it even got close to China. So unless China is going to station their Navy off the coast of Madagascar, the Straits of Magellan, Cape Horn, Suez/Panama Canal and the straits of Hormuz this whole blockade thing is moot.

 

[Steakhouse]

This whole talk is silly. Any ship (that isn't a neighboring country) would be stopped over 1000 miles away before it even got close to China. So unless China is going to station their Navy off the coast of Madagascar, the Straits of Magellan, Cape Horn, Suez/Panama Canal and the straits of Hormuz this whole blockade thing is moot.

I agree with you outside of SCS, China naval capacity will surely diminish in confrontation against US and her allies navy in Strait of Magellan, Cape Horn etc.. Only a prolong dragging all out war will the naval blockade somehow be implement.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Naval blockade mean to cut off raw material supply line to China through sea route, since Russia can easily supply raw material to China, China will never starve for material. China build up the naval force if totally concentrated on protecting the SCS then China navy can be a formidable force against any navy in SCS. Implement naval blockade against China not be an easily task without the risk of many naval assets destroyed in the process.

The Chinese economy is heavily reliant on sea based trade with other nations. Russia would not be able to make up such a deficit. The Chinese would have to be able to fight and sustain operations at significant distances from home. Not only does China not have the military to do so, they don't have the logistical capability either.

 

[Steakhouse]

The Chinese economy is heavily reliant on sea based trade with other nations. Russia would not be able to make up such a deficit. The Chinese would have to be able to fight and sustain operations at significant distances from home. Not only does China not have the military to do so, they don't have the logistical capability either.

Naval blockade on China will also affect China neighbor, global economy integrate all part of the world, majority of the Southeast Asia also depend on the sea route for their trade, you think Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, Japan, Philippine will not suffer from the naval blockade aimed at China? China main focus on strengthen their military especially their naval build up to defend their interest within the 1st islands chain. Beyond the first islands chains China military projection are limited because lack of naval base outside of China, China have the capacity to transport their military to the far distance but not enough platform to transfer large number of troop in short order. China is building their logistic capacity for future military involvement in a far distance. China develop their large transport aircraft and build their LHD transport ship to breach the gap. The way China show their military development indicated China will never stay static with their military planning.

 

[boke]

还能说什么呢？美国在亚洲的存在本身就应该是建设性，而不是起反作用的。事实上，美国的亚洲战略在中国看来是具有强烈敌对和侵略性的，而且美国试图将他的这种冷战和遏制思维灌输给中国周边国家来遏制中国的发展，他至今依然是对华高科技产品禁运的最积极国家。显然，美国的做法不可能赢得中国的好感，更不可能得到中国的友好合作，对待朋友和对待敌人本身就不可能一视同仁。俄罗斯奉行的是现实主义，对中国而言，现实利益和长远利益相结合才是最好的做法，所以，现阶段如果中俄紧密联合，那就是说美国及其跟随者的做法不仅错了，而且错的越来越离谱。西方的多数观察家和学者从来就少反思自身，而坚持妖魔化丑化中国，这种误导将让国家间的理解和相互尊重变的越来越难以实现。如果亚洲不稳，责任不在于中国。中国周边的国家和非周边的国家如美国应该认真思考下，如果想在亚洲真正做到和平共处共荣，应该采取怎样的做法和中国相处。

 

[dbc]

Thanks for connecting some of the dots for me. I wonder if you could complete the puzzle by assessing the following issues:

1) Given the devastating effects such a blockade would have on all of the world's major economies, what do you assess is the likelihood that such a tactic would be pursued?

2) Moreover, given the strength of today's China vs. the civil war-wracked China that Japan was fighting against, do you even view a naval blockade as achievable today?

3) Given China's reach into central Asia with its Silk Road 2.0, and its "great friendship" with Pakistan, is Russia still vital in China's ability to avoid the fallout of a naval blockade?

As you can see from my questions, I'm still skeptical that China needs Russia, even in such an extreme scenario.

1. Depends on the sequence of events that lead to such measures being considered. From a US perspective there are certain red lines that China must not cross. And I don't think China will cross those lines but China/ US may miscalculate or certain events in that region may spiral out of control and force a confrontation. The omission of the US in my earlier post was deliberate, China has other emerging challengers - India and Japan. In my opinion, both India and Japan are more than a match for the Chinese Navy in open seas today. The outcome of a naval engagement between India/China or Japan/China will depend on how much of China's land based assets can be brought to the party. So to answer your question, China needs to plan for present and emerging threats so good relations with its northern neighbor is in her best interests.

2. Japan succeeded in imposing a blockade despite opposition from the Royal Navy and USN. The Royal Navy was a force to reckon with in the 40's. China's vulnerability is due to its geography, stated another way US forces will be challenged to defend China's coast and shipping lanes today.

3. Silk road 2 over the Himalayan mountain range will never accommodate the volume of cargo necessary to support China's economy or war needs.

 

[xunzi]

Here is our hypothetical response to a naval blockage:

1. DF-21D to knock any surface ships in sight. The best way to track ship is not satellite but through merchant ship location which thousand of our fishing vassals are equipped with.

2. Once we build naval base in SCS, expect our missile and aircraft to launch attack quickly on surface ships. The only real threat is the US submarines and if the US sink our merchant vessels, expect us to sink any of US's allied vessels in sight.

3. If escalated further, we will knock US satellites down and exchange nuke.

4. In the short term, energy from central Asia and Russia can sustain our effort to withstand the blockage and long term the US and her allied will equally suffer from it as we will not stand pat to die.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Here is our hypothetical response to a naval blockage:

1. DF-21D to knock any surface ships in sight. The best way to track ship is not satellite but through merchant ship location which thousand of our fishing vassals are equipped with.

2. Once we build naval base in SCS, expect our missile and aircraft to launch attack quickly on surface ships. The only real threat is the US submarines and if the US sink our merchant vessels, expect us to sink any of US's allied vessels in sight.

What backwards 70 years ago world are you living in??? This is 2014. The days of stacking ships off the shore of some country are long long long gone. I can't believe you would even suggest it would even happen.

Do you think there are dozens of ships blockading Syria, Russia, Iran, or North Korea? Blockading is done over the phone.
Ships wouldn't even get out of port never mind being intercepted off the coast of China.

 

[xunzi]

What backwards 70 year old world are you living in??? This is 2014. The days of stacking ships off the shore of some country are long long long gone. I can't believe you would even suggest it would even happen.

Do you think there are dozens of ships blockading Syria, Russia, Iran, or North Korea? Blockading is done over the phone.
Ships wouldn't even get out of port never mind being intercepted off the coast of China.

I am just presenting our "Chinese view" on the blockage and warn to all that we are not going to stand pat to die. Like I said before, if we go down, we will bring our friends with us to hell.