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The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

Generally speaking, I agree with you, but democracy in a friend or ally is very important to the US. We have autocratic allies. But please consider the opposite side of the equation: if China ever implements democracy, it is possible that we will see yet another realignment in the world, where the US rushes to establish warm relations with China at the expense of other nations. So much has changed in the past 30 years that I would not dismiss this as a possibility.

For now, though, it is India that is the democratic power in the region, and we recognize that quality, and the problems it entails, in our own dysfunctional polity. That's why we can afford to wait for a friendly administration (BJP) to come into office in order to improve ties (our own Democratic Party is just as responsible for poor relations with certain other countries, and its passing would enable improved ties).

In China at the moment, there is no prospect of waiting for the administration to change, because the CCP is always succeeded by the CCP; but even China knows that history moves in unexpected ways, so we should not count on the CCP maintaining a monopoly forever.

And now we've come full-circle. Yes, nations protect their interests, not values. But both interests and values change, and like the turning of the gears of a clock, we might find ourselves in the future interlocked with different partners depending on the configuration of those interests and values.

NOPE i still disagree with you on this.:D The U.S is after first and foremost its own interests(like evry country should be by the way, so im not saying its a bad thing). I still dont understand how you think the U.S values democrazy and considers it as one of its main pillars for alliances.loool That couldnt be further from the truth.:disagree: Had it been the case we wouldnt have been supporting the worse dictatorial regimes from Egypt under mubarak and now Sissycracy to the House of saud which is the worse dictatorial country out there(bar north Korea) and many others in the region.

Even if China were to be a democracy today, we will still look for other ways /excuse to contain/reduce its influence. It has nothing to do about Democracy or whatever, but everything to do with interests/world supremacy. I dont blame the U.S though, since it has been so for centuries , an established power will always try and prevent an upcoming one from surpassing it or sharing power with it irrespective of the country, theres is nothing wrong in that in my opinion. if im used to be first in my class for a long time, do you think i will be happy if another student to start challenging me/take my position? Nope i will do everything i can to remain ahead of him , doesnt matter if he's my friend or not. What i will want is to remain ahead /keep my position by all means, doesnt matter whether the means/method i use is moral orimmoral, as far as my objectives are met, even if it means cheating. At the end of the day the end Justifies the means(just like the U.S.S.R found out.:D).

My country did the same thing with Germnay when they were 'rising' which led to two devastating world wars(which ironically brought down our empire and funny enough unlike what most people think , we both kind of lost the war to be honest.lol), same with how we and france used to battle each other in the 18th centuries for colonies/supremacy world wide, we even clash a few times.:agree: Same with other powers earlier like Spain, Portugal, etc, they all batteled for world supremacy/colonies/domination. Political system had nothing to do with it, world Supremacy did. The hell i remember Japan(despite having U.S troops on its soil till today) still used to be labelled by our media in the west/U,S day and night as the Yellow peril from the east ready to take over the world when they were also 'rising' and buying up properties in the U.S/west.lol Its not like Japan wasn't a democracy, there will always be reasons/excuses an establish power will use to undermine an upcoming one, doesnt matter if its democractic or not(i do confess that if its authocratic/dictatorial then its more easier for the U.S/west to demonize/use excuses to contain it though, than if it was democratic.:D) . Lets give it 15 or 20 years from now(well if im still alive.lol) when India is strong/big/powerful enough, then lets see how the U.S attitudes/policy towards India will change(not for the better though). Indians on here mark my words, lets wait for 2 decades from now and see(if we are still all alive.lol), well thast if you are not 'allied' with the U.S by then.:D

No hard feelings though my friend leveraged buyout you are still one of the members on here which i respect/admire and learn things i didnt know from. But we gotta disagree on some things when i dont think its right, thats how i am. So cheers mon ami.:cheers:
 
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NOPE i still disagree with you on this.:D The U.S is after first and foremost its own interests(like evry country should be by the way, so im not saying its a bad thing). I still dont understand how you think the U.S values democrazy and considers it as one of its main pillars for alliances.loool That couldnt be further from the truth.:disagree: Had it been the case we wouldnt have been supporting the worse dictatorial regimes from Egypt under mubarak and now Sissycracy to the House of saud which is the worse dictatorial country out there(bar north Korea) and many others in the region.

Even if China were to be a democracy today, we will still look for other ways /excuse to contain/reduce its influence. It has nothing to do about Democracy or whatever, but everything to do with interests/world supremacy. I dont blame the U.S though, since it has been so for centuries , an established power will always try and prevent an upcoming one from surpassing it or sharing power with it irrespective of the country, theres is nothing wrong in that in my opinion. if im used to be first in my class for a long time, do you think i will be happy if another student to start challenging me/take my position? Nope i will do everything i can to remain ahead of him , doesnt matter if he's my friend or not. What i will want is to remain ahead /keep my position.

My country did the same thing with Germnay when they were 'rising' which led to two devastating world wars(which ironically broguht our empire down and both of us kind of lost the war to be honest.lol), same with how we and france used to battle each other in the 18th centuries for colonies/supremacy world wide, we even clash a few times.:agree: Political system had nothing to do with it, world Supremacy did. The hell i remember Japan(despite having U.S troops on its soil till today) still used to be labelled the yellow peril from the east ready to take over the world when they were also 'rising' and buying up properties in the U.S/west.lol Its not like Japan wasnt a democracy, there will always be reasons an establish power will use to undermine an upcoming one, doesnt matter if its democractic or not(i do confess that if its authocratic/dictatorial then its more easier for the U.S/west to demonize/use excuses to contain it though, than if it was democratic.:D) . Lets give it 15 or 20 years from now(well if im still alive.lol) when India is strong/big/powerful enough, then lets see how the U.S attitudes/policy towards India will change(not for the better though). Indians on here mark my words, lets wait for 2 decades from now and see(if are all still alive.lol):D

No hard feelings though my friend leveraged buyout you are still one of the members on here which i respect/admire and learn things i didnt know from. But we gotta disagree on some things when i dont think its right, thats how i am. So cheers mon ami.:cheers:

Excuse the semi-essay below, but you provided a great topic for me to address.

I respect your perspective on this, but as you say, we remain in disagreement. We are often castigated by others for this, but the US truly believes itself to be an "exceptional nation," not beholden to the old ways of power politics. I believe I mentioned this in another thread (possibly even to you), but perhaps uniquely in the world, the United States is based on an idea, rather than a Westphalian sense of nation-hood (i.e. based around tribal identity, race, religion, etc.). Our values are universal values, which is why any individual from any background can become American if they accept those values (and this system was in place far before several European countries adopted a similar outlook on immigration). In fact, there is no better demonstration of this in pointing out that only the US and Canada have a jus soli system of citizenship (automatic citizenship if you are born on our soil) among the advanced economies. Most of the countries of the world still have a blood-based citizenship system.

In any case, it is this idea-based identity, and the deliberate decision not to dwell on history when deciding national policy, that enables the US to be so nimble in our geopolitical maneuverings. Asia and Africa's grievance culture has never been present in the US, as demonstrated by our easy reconciliation with Great Britain despite our old colonial relationship; our adoption of Germany and Japan as close allies despite a horrific war between us; and even our reconciliation with Vietnam, despite our less than ideal relationship with them in the past decades. One can imagine other reconciliations in the future.

The UK may never contemplate the kind of pivot that the US could potentially make towards embracing China, but that doesn't preclude its possibility. The UK's vision of "interests" have long been nearly mutually exclusive with "values," (see: The Great Game) whereas the US sees shared values as a clear pathway to shared interests. That is the basis of the often-misunderstood US drive for democracy in the world--not for power, but because we truly believe that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. Other countries look upon such declarations with much cynicism, because they have only ever known the cynical game of power politics and pure national interest, so it's understandable that so many would accuse us of having an ulterior motive. But shared values lead to shared interests, and encouraging the convergence of values can also help solidify and anchor the sharing of interests where those shared interests already exist.

And that is the difference between India and China. Both have opposed us: China, explicitly, as a Communist power, and India, implicitly through NAM, as a tool of the USSR (NAM was never as non-aligned as it claimed, let's face reality). But whereas India's democratic system has evolved and strengthened itself, providing an opening for warm relations with the US, China diverged from this path after Tiananmen. Remember that much of the current tensions between the US and China are the result of Tiananmen and our respective reactions to it.

If Tiananmen had never happened, we might still have a warm relationship (as we had through much of the 1970s and 1980s). But since it did happen, the US could not ignore the democratic yearning demonstrated there (especially when the students and laborers specifically invoked America through their goddess of Liberty). Ever since then, the CCP has viewed democracy as a threat to its rule, and any demonstration of movement towards democracy as an American plot (see the wild claims made by Chinese users here about the Umbrella Movement in HK). And ever since then, the US has been trying to turn the clock back to that moment in time when the spirit of democracy looked like it had a chance of taking hold in China, and we could stand on the same side not only in trade relations, but also in values. It's not difficult to see how time can solve this disagreement, and bring us closer together once more. Many Chinese users here profess hatred of America, or the American system, and yet one should observe how many of them have lived, studied, and worked in this country that they say they hate so much. We will get there, but it will take time. Contrary to what some might think, "what is best for China" and "sharing American values" are not mutually exclusive concepts.

In short, I understand and sympathize with your disagreement on this count, but I disagree that "only permanent interests, no permanent friends" reflects America's actions, identity, or goals.
 
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It was inevitable in the long run. All the current crisis did was speed it up.
 
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Excuse the semi-essay below, but you provided a great topic for me to address.

I respect your perspective on this, but as you say, we remain in disagreement. We are often castigated by others for this, but the US truly believes itself to be an "exceptional nation," not beholden to the old ways of power politics. I believe I mentioned this in another thread (possibly even to you), but perhaps uniquely in the world, the United States is based on an idea, rather than a Westphalian sense of nation-hood (i.e. based around tribal identity, race, religion, etc.). Our values are universal values, which is why any individual from any background can become American if they accept those values (and this system was in place far before several European countries adopted a similar outlook on immigration). In fact, there is no better demonstration of this in pointing out that only the US and Canada have a jus soli system of citizenship (automatic citizenship if you are born on our soil) among the advanced economies. Most of the countries of the world still have a blood-based citizenship system.

In any case, it is this idea-based identity, and the deliberate decision not to dwell on history when deciding national policy, that enables the US to be so nimble in our geopolitical maneuverings. Asia and Africa's grievance culture has never been present in the US, as demonstrated by our easy reconciliation with Great Britain despite our old colonial relationship; our adoption of Germany and Japan as close allies despite a horrific war between us; and even our reconciliation with Vietnam, despite our less than ideal relationship with them in the past decades. One can imagine other reconciliations in the future.

The UK may never contemplate the kind of pivot that the US could potentially make towards embracing China, but that doesn't preclude its possibility. The UK's vision of "interests" have long been nearly mutually exclusive with "values," (see: The Great Game) whereas the US sees shared values as a clear pathway to shared interests. That is the basis of the often-misunderstood US drive for democracy in the world--not for power, but because we truly believe that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. Other countries look upon such declarations with much cynicism, because they have only ever known the cynical game of power politics and pure national interest, so it's understandable that so many would accuse us of having an ulterior motive. But shared values lead to shared interests, and encouraging the convergence of values can also help solidify and anchor the sharing of interests where those shared interests already exist.

And that is the difference between India and China. Both have opposed us: China, explicitly, as a Communist power, and India, implicitly through NAM, as a tool of the USSR (NAM was never as non-aligned as it claimed, let's face reality). But whereas India's democratic system has evolved and strengthened itself, providing an opening for warm relations with the US, China diverged from this path after Tiananmen. Remember that much of the current tensions between the US and China are the result of Tiananmen and our respective reactions to it.

If Tiananmen had never happened, we might still have a warm relationship (as we had through much of the 1970s and 1980s). But since it did happen, the US could not ignore the democratic yearning demonstrated there (especially when the students and laborers specifically invoked America through their goddess of Liberty). Ever since then, the CCP has viewed democracy as a threat to its rule, and any demonstration of movement towards democracy as an American plot (see the wild claims made by Chinese users here about the Umbrella Movement in HK). And ever since then, the US has been trying to turn the clock back to that moment in time when the spirit of democracy looked like it had a chance of taking hold in China, and we could stand on the same side not only in trade relations, but also in values. It's not difficult to see how time can solve this disagreement, and bring us closer together once more. Many Chinese users here profess hatred of America, or the American system, and yet one should observe how many of them have lived, studied, and worked in this country that they say they hate so much. We will get there, but it will take time. Contrary to what some might think, "what is best for China" and "sharing American values" are not mutually exclusive concepts.

In short, I understand and sympathize with your disagreement on this count, but I disagree that "only permanent interests, no permanent friends" reflects America's actions, identity, or goals.

no hard feeling bro, i still disagree with your points about the U.S valuing democracy as the one of the main pillars of its alliance system. we will just agree to disagree on this, since i can write several long essays on here to disprove the points you just made but im sure you will still find even more counter points(i know you are quite good in this my man.:D;)). So will be better to just call it a day for now on this, since we both seem to be firmly entrenched in our opinions on this point. So lets just leave it here for now my man.:cheers::D
 
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Russia is now subordinate to China, and becoming less relevant every day.

Cheap shot. Russia is in no way subordinate to China. The two are equals. A subordinate country would not pull out a Crimea with zero explicit Chinese support.

You have been repeating the same argument for too long anytime China-Russia reinforce their relationship. Better yet, you may ask Russian members here of their perception @vostok , and @senheiser

You have to bring out empirical evidence to prove that China-Russia partnership is one of a major and minor.

Russia is a major power by itself and we are just thankful to US for "facilitating" the China-Russia strategic alignment which is based on a completely different set of values and norms than the one between the US and its unimportant minions.

China exceeds Russia in almost every way.

It does not. Besides, what is the relevance really. Exceeding or being exceeded does not make an alliance less equal if either of the two sides do not nurture hegemonic aspirations against the other.

if China ever implements democracy, it is possible that we will see yet another realignment in the world, where the US rushes to establish warm relations with China at the expense of other nations.

If Saudi Arabia ever implements democracy, I wonder what the US, with the petrodollar gone, would do?

A note to yourself: China will never implement stuff in other people's terms.

In China at the moment, there is no prospect of waiting for the administration to change, because the CCP is always succeeded by the CCP; but even China knows that history moves in unexpected ways, so we should not count on the CCP maintaining a monopoly forever.

Again, cheap shot. But, the prospects of a right wing warmonger president to assume power in the US is almost given.


Xi, Putin meet in Beijing, 17 agreements signed
November 9, 2014, 1:41 pm


41d517db0f0d32db8f14.jpg

Putin (left) presented Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) with a Russian smartphone– a Yotaphone-2, with Russian, Chinese and APEC symbols uploaded for the occasion [PPIO]

In a boost to bilateral ties between the two allies, Russia and China have signed 17 agreements on Sunday after Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in Beijing.

The deals inked today include an agreement on the delivery of Russian natural gas to China via the western route, securing the world’s top energy user a major source of cleaner fuel. The western route refers to gas supplies to China from Russian fields in West Siberia.

The route to supply gas to China via the western route may be implemented faster than the eastern route, through which Moscow agreed to ship the fuel to its Asian neighbor in May, according to Gazprom’s CEO Alexei Miller.

Putin, during Sunday’s meet, also lauded Russia-China ties as key to maintaining stability in the world.

“Cooperation between Russia and China is extremely important for keeping the world in line with the international law, making it [the world] more stable,” Putin said during his meet with Xi.

Russian state oil giant Rosneft and Chinese oil major CNPC also signed an agreement on Sunday to sell 10 per cent of shares in Rosneft’s subsidiary Vankorneft to China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development.

Ties between the two allies “represent an irreversible trend” Xi said on Sunday.

“No matter how the international landscape shifts, we must insist on giving priority to the development of Sino-Russian ties in our diplomatic endeavors, constantly boost political and strategic mutual trust, and keep expanding and deepening comprehensive cooperation,” said the Chinese President.

Xi and Putin also agreed to step up cooperation in high-speed rail, technology, aerospace and finance sectors.

Sunday was Xi’s tenth meeting with Putin since he assumed the office of Chinese presidency in March 2013.

Russia and China also signed agreements on “implementing joint energy investment projects in Arkhangelsk Region, on the joint funding, construction and operation of a hydro power station in the Far East of Russia and on cooperation in the construction of hydro-accumulating power stations,” said a Kremlin statement.

Sberbank of Russia also signed an agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China regarding credit lines and purchasing loans, while VTB Bank signed a cooperation agreement with China’s telecom giant Huawei Technologies.

In Sunday’s meet, Putin noted that bilateral trade turnover went up by 1.3 per cent in 2013. In the first nine months of this year it has increased by 7 per cent as Russia increases it economic engagement with China while battling Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.

Putin and Xi also “discussed their respective countries’ positions on the main issues on the agendas for the upcoming APEC and G20 summits” said a Kremlin statement.

“I would also like to note the importance of cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation for retaining the world within the international legal framework, for making it more stable and predictable. You and I have done a great deal for this purpose and I am certain we will continue working in this direction,” said Putin.

The two Presidents also announced on Sunday that China and Russia will jointly celebrate the 70th anniversary of the victory of World War II next year.

Putin is in Beijing to attend the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting (AELM) that will be held on Monday and Tuesday and will be attended by world leaders from 21 nations, including US President Barack Obama.

Obama’s Provocations Pushed China, Russia Closer
Special to The BRICS Post
November 9, 2014

The American and Russian presidents have publicly revealed their conflicting visions of future development not only in Europe (where Moscow and Washington continue to lock horns over Ukraine), but in Asia, as well.

In the buildup to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Beijing, US President Barack Obama made it clear that he had no plans to meet his Russian counterpart.

He went on to say that he also likely won’t meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Brisbane, Australia where both leaders will attend the G20 summit in mid-November.

At the same time, Obama reiterated his support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal Washington is negotiating with 11 nations in the region, excluding China and Russia.


On the eve of the APEC summit in Beijing, Putin highlighted his opposition to the TPP.

One does not need to be a genius to understand that plans to build Pacific economic zones without the region’s two biggest powers – Russia and China – are doomed.

“It is clear that the economic influence of the United States and the West in general will inevitably decline in the coming years,” commented the Moscow-based Expert magazine, Russia’s leading weekly specializing in economic analysis.

“But the [Obama] administration and the European Union seem to have chosen the costliest and the most painful way to manage this process,” it went on.



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“We’re organising trade relations with countries other than China so that China starts feeling more pressure about meeting basic international standards,” Obama said referring to the TPP in a presidential debate in 2012 [Xinhua]

Indeed, Obama’s stance is a logical continuation of the policy line he made public during his tour of Southeast Asian nations in spring 2014, right before Putin’s visit to Beijing.

During his visits to Japan and Philippines, Obama promised US support in their disagreements with China.

This presidential move couldn’t have been more provocative as the verbal bickering betweenChina and Japan over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands was at its height, and the conflict between Russia and the US over Ukraine was leading to outright civil war there.

Backfire

The result of Obama’s actions in Japan and Philippines produced the opposite effect he had desired, however.

In May, and most likely under the impression of American hostility, Russia and China inched closer together and signed a landmark gas deal.

According to the agreements signed during Putin’s visit to Beijing that month, Russia is to supply 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year to China via a yet to be constructed pipeline named Sila Sibiri (“The Force of Siberia”).

Thanks to this deal, Russia is expected to get $400 billion and to diversify its gas exports, which had been geared to the European markets for over 40 years.

The current Russia-China deal is supposed to be implemented over the course of the next 30 years.

“Obama’s statements against China and Russia do not reveal a productive approach and reveal his lack of understanding of the region,” says Yuri Tavrovsky, a prominent Russian expert on China and Japan.

“Few people believe that the US can be a fair and balanced mediator between Tokyo and Beijing, [while] Washington’s bias against China is too obvious,” said Tavrovsky, who in the 1980s also consulted the Central Committee of the Communist party of the Soviet Union on relations with Tokyo and Beijing.

“Also the United States is showing a lack of subtlety on the issue of China’s wartime losses. Official Chinese figures say 35 million Chinese lost their lives during the Japanese occupation in 1930s and 1940s. This is a huge figure.”

Similarly, in Russia, relations with the US have soured over Washington’s support for the modern Ukrainian and Baltic nationalists.

These groups often pose as successors to the Ukrainian and Baltic nationalist movements of the 1940s.

But many of these movements have for decades been tarnished by their collaboration with the German Nazi leader Adolph Hitler.

During Hitler’s occupation of the Soviet territories between 1941 and 1945, these Ukrainian, Latvian and Estonian nationalists made their “contribution” to the killing of 27 million Soviet citizens, who perished during World War II.

So, even emotionally – when one considers the casualties and horrors inflicted during that war – Russian and Chinese grievances against the US become similar.



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“The Russian-Chinese relations have become a crucial factor in accommodating the foreign policy interests of the two countries in the 21st century, playing a significant role in establishing a just, harmonious and safe world order,” said Putin on Thursday ahead of his Beijing visit [PPIO]


The anti-Beijing and anti-Moscow clique behind Washington’s foreign policy, which became all too apparent in recent years, is pushing not only Russia and China but also other BRICS countries to common protective measures against the US.


Layering the BRICS

BRICS’ leaders are planning to meet on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Brisbane on November 15-16.

As Putin meets with his BRICS allies, Obama seems to be deliberately isolating himself by refusing to meet the Russian president in Brisbane.

Analysts note that in Autumn 2013 Obama also refused to have talks with Putin at the G20 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Only a few weeks later, Obama needed Putin’s help in implementing the Russian plan of dismantling Syria’s chemical weapons.

This plan saved Obama from losing face after cancelling the White House strategy to launch airstrikes against Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s forces.

BRICS has already established a $100 billion New Development Bank and a $100 billion Contingency Reserve Arrangement, both of which are supposed to provide additional financial protection to members in case of emergency.

For Russia, which is under financial sanctions from the US and the EU, these organizations of financial protection are a source of hope as the Ruble continues its six-month downward spiral.

China, which is a major contributor to the BRICS projects, is also interested in Russia’s energy reserves.

In this sphere, both countries’ interests converge.


This is significant for Moscow, which has been hearing for some time the EU’s threat that it will “lessen its dependence” on Russian gas exports.

Besides the controversial American plan of Trans-Pacific cooperation which excludes both of their countries, Russia’s Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are expected to make progress on the plans of an additional pipeline from Russia to China.

The so called Altai pipeline (also called the Western Itinerary) is expected to carry 30 billion cubic meters of gas to China.

The Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said the deal could be finalized by the first half of the year 2015.

A year ago, this plan would have more closely resembled a fantasy.

But it is precisely Washington’s aggressive support of the anti-Russian “revolution” in Ukraine and for anti-Chinese forces in Asia that has transformed this fantastic Russo-Chinese cooperation into a reality.
 
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Cheap shot. Russia is in no way subordinate to China. The two are equals. A subordinate country would not pull out a Crimea with zero explicit Chinese support.

You have been repeating the same argument for too long anytime China-Russia reinforce their relationship. Better yet, you may ask Russian members here of their perception @vostok , and @senheiser

You have to bring out empirical evidence to prove that China-Russia partnership is one of a major and minor.

Russia is a major power by itself and we are just thankful to US for "facilitating" the China-Russia strategic alignment which is based on a completely different set of values and norms than the one between the US and its unimportant minions.

Easy enough. Numbers are for 2013, and the gap is only growing.

Population
China: 1,357m
Russia: 143.5m
Ratio: 9.45x

GDP
China: $9.2tn
Russia: $2.1tn
Ratio: 4.38x

Defense Spending (IISS)
China: $112.2bn
Russia: $68.2bn
Ratio: 1.64x

We've established that Russia is an economic, demographic, and military dwarf compared to China. Now let's establish the "partner" in the "junior partner" claim. Russia's main economic relationship with China is through energy resources:

1830-20140325172755000000000[1].png


This is the same relationship that China has with Africa, and I doubt you would consider Africa to be a peer. Indeed, this asymmetrical trade relationship will only get worse for Russia as its defense exports to China decline and its energy exports increase because of the approximately $400bn deal you helpfully highlighted. And China relies on Russian oil for less than 10% of its needs, putting it in a strong position to dictate terms.

As far as shaping the world order, it is Russia that joined China's SCO, not the other way around.

In short, does Russia need China more than China needs Russia? If yes, that means it is the junior partner. Tell me, other than energy, in what way does China need Russia? It is already an economic superpower. It already has veto power on the UNSC. It has its own self-sufficient defense industry. China has immense leverage over Russia, but I see no symmetrical Russian leverage with China.

That's my case, now please present yours. How are China and Russia equal allies? Please be so kind as to quantify your answer, as I have done.
 
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That's my case, now please present yours. How are China and Russia equal allies? Please be so kind as to quantify your answer, as I have done.

You have quantified nothing, since, from these numbers, one cannot surmise that, unlike how your original post suggested above, China-Russia strategic partnership is one of based on unequal treatment of one side of he other.

What you present here is irrelevant and dry statistics.

By your weird logic, China and Russia cannot be equal partners because their population size does not match.

What is important is policies on the ground and you have to prove that in recent years Russia has given up to Chinese pressure to sign any agreement that was detrimental to its national interests/security in one of or another.

That's what I call proof. Now, save the usual cheap Western rhetoric in the hope of painting China-Russia strategic partnership as unequal.
 
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Easy enough. Numbers are for 2013, and the gap is only growing.

Population
China: 1,357m
Russia: 143.5m
Ratio: 9.45x

GDP
China: $9.2tn
Russia: $2.1tn
Ratio: 4.38x

Defense Spending (IISS)
China: $112.2bn
Russia: $68.2bn
Ratio: 1.64x

We've established that Russia is an economic, demographic, and military dwarf compared to China. Now let's establish the "partner" in the "junior partner" claim. Russia's main economic relationship with China is through energy resources:

View attachment 148721

This is the same relationship that China has with Africa, and I doubt you would consider Africa to be a peer. Indeed, this asymmetrical trade relationship will only get worse for Russia as its defense exports to China decline and its energy exports increase because of the approximately $400bn deal you helpfully highlighted. And China relies on Russian oil for less than 10% of its needs, putting it in a strong position to dictate terms.

As far as shaping the world order, it is Russia that joined China's SCO, not the other way around.

In short, does Russia need China more than China needs Russia? If yes, that means it is the junior partner. Tell me, other than energy, in what way does China need Russia? It is already an economic superpower. It already has veto power on the UNSC. It has its own self-sufficient defense industry. China has immense leverage over Russia, but I see no symmetrical Russian leverage with China.

That's my case, now please present yours. How are China and Russia equal allies? Please be so kind as to quantify your answer, as I have done.

Equality does not dwell in economic data / population alone
How about foreign policies like seats and veto powers on permanent UNSC? Shanghai Co-op Org., BRICS? Military co-operations? Russia's vast untapped resources? :cheesy:
 
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What you present here is irrelevant and dry statistics.

By your weird logic, China and Russia cannot be equal partners because their population size does not match.

Precisely. China and Russia are not equal, not in demographics, not in economics, not militarily. Russia has more nukes, more energy, and more land, but the first will eventually be solved by China's military, the second has been solved by China's clever purchasing of energy from multiple sources, and the last is irrelevant (otherwise Canada would be considered a superpower, as well). China does not need Russia's political protection, because it has its own veto on the UNSC, and its own ways of buying influence from the Third World in the UNGA.

Dry statistics are the only objective measure. I accept that you're emotional about this, but you have yet to prove your case.
 
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Equality does not dwell in economic data / population alone
How about foreign policies like seats and veto powers on permanent UNSC? Shanghai Co-op Org., BRICS? Military co-operations? Russia's vast untapped resources? :cheesy:

China doesn't need Russia in the UNSC, as it has its own veto. SCO is China's entity, not Russia's. BRICS does not exist as a meaningful entity other than a label for a specific grouping of countries (it's really China alone, plus the BRIS). It's fine for China to militarily cooperate with Russia, but I'd like to see a case where China needs Russia in any way militarily.

Russia's only contribution to China is through its natural resources, which places it firmly in the "supplier" category. Suppliers are subordinate to the client when an easily substituted commodity is involved, as it is in this case. Should Russia completely cut off supplies of energy to China (and destroy its own economy in the process), China would barely notice.

But I'm open-minded. Please present a case whereby Russia should be considered an equal partner to China.
 
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China doesn't need Russia in the UNSC, as it has its own veto. SCO is China's entity, not Russia's. BRICS does not exist as a meaningful entity other than a label for a specific grouping of countries (it's really China alone, plus the BRIS). It's fine for China to militarily cooperate with Russia, but I'd like to see a case where China needs Russia in any way militarily.

Russia's only contribution to China is through its natural resources, which places it firmly in the "supplier" category. Suppliers are subordinate to the client when an easily substituted commodity is involved, as it is in this case. Should Russia completely cut off supplies of energy to China (and destroy its own economy in the process), China would barely notice.

But I'm open-minded. Please present a case whereby Russia should be considered an equal partner to China.

THen you should cancel the UNSC membership for UK and France
Only China Russia and USA should have the veto power. How does this sound?

BRICS, Shanghai Co-op Orgs are formed on equality in membership
Read the charter of the Orgs before you spew nonsence

We are buying Russian jet engines, Su-35s, some missiles, submarines
We seek more co-operation in space technology. Russians (USSR) space explorations are ahead of us

We have great cultural exchanges. Russians dance troupes and music orchestras are top class
They best us in many sports disciplines

Russian has rich resources. We have great demand for their supply. What is wrong with that?
Russia also has a vast area of untapped resources. How can we not treating Russians are our close friends?8-)
 
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Generally speaking, I agree with you, but democracy in a friend or ally is very important to the US. We have autocratic allies. But please consider the opposite side of the equation: if China ever implements democracy, it is possible that we will see yet another realignment in the world, where the US rushes to establish warm relations with China at the expense of other nations. So much has changed in the past 30 years that I would not dismiss this as a possibility.

Did the establishment of democracy in Russia lead to a warming of relations with Russia, or instead the creeping eastward expansion of NATO?

What if a Chinese democracy produces a leader like Putin - would the US still be friendly?

Look at Hatoyama - one of the few Japanese politicians to put Japan first, not the US, what happened to him? Roh Moo Hyun, one of the South Korean presidents to put South Korea's interests first even if they went against the US - what happened to him?
 
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Did the establishment of democracy in Russia lead to a warming of relations with Russia, or instead the creeping eastward expansion of NATO?

It was Russia that chose to make NATO's expansion a mutually exclusive choice with warming relations, not us. If Russia has not objected (since it has no legitimate right to determine the security arrangements of other sovereign powers), we would have had quite warm relations. I'm surprised that you, and the other Chinese users here, would apparently be comfortable with one country dictating another country's internal affairs.

What if a Chinese democracy produces a leader like Putin - would the US still be friendly?

If China didn't invade its neighbors, as Russia did with Georgia and Ukraine, I don't see why not.

Look at Hatoyama - one of the few Japanese politicians to put Japan first, not the US, what happened to him? Roh Moo Hyun, one of the South Korean presidents to put South Korea's interests first even if they went against the US - what happened to him?

They displeased their populations through incompetent governance and were voted out of office. Surely you are not claiming that the US conspired behind the scenes to have these leaders removed?
 
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Xi-Putin to assert united front at APEC

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“The TPP is just another U.S. attempt to build an architecture of regional economic cooperation that the USA would benefit from,” said Putin ahead of the APEC Summit [PPIO]

In yet another boost to the emerging world’s most important economic, strategic, and political partnership, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will take allied positions on key issues during the APEC Leaders Summit in Beijing this week.

“We are well aware that such collaboration is extremely important both for Russia and China. We take similar or even identical stands on major global and regional issues on the international agenda. The Russian-Chinese relations have become a crucial factor in accommodating the foreign policy interests of the two countries in the 21st century, playing a significant role in establishing a just, harmonious and safe world order,” said Putin on Thursday ahead of his Beijing visit.

Andrey Denisov, Russian envoy to China said the two Presidentswill “synchronize time” – referring to coordinating their positions – on Russia-China relations, international affairs and the APEC meetings.

Russia attaches great importance to the strategic Asia Pacific region, Denisov told China’s state media ahead of Putin’s arrival.

He said “more actively taking part in regional economic cooperation to create favorable conditions for the social and economic development of Russia, particularly east Russia,” is the country’s strategic goal in the region.

Earlier on Thursday, Putin lauded APEC’s role in maintaining stability in the region.

“When some countries prefer to act on the international arena using the methods of political, economic and often even coercive pressure the role of APEC as an effective coordinating mechanism for building a new regional architecture is indispensable,” Putin said referring toUS and EU sanctions on Moscow for the Ukraine crisis.

China is pressing for an “APEC information exchange” for free trade areas to increase transparency among the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) members and the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) members.

Ahead of the APEC Summit, host China has announced major economic projects for the region including the rebuilding of the Silk Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, and the crucial Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. During the APEC Summit, Beijing will continue negotiations with countries like Australia Indonesia and South Korea, notable absentees from the list of nations who signed up for the China-led Bank.

A Bloomberg report quoted Chinese plans of a $16.3 billion fund for infrastructure projects linking China’s markets to three continents in its bid to revive the centuries-old Silk Road trading route.

Meanwhile the Russian envoy to China said on Friday that Beijing’s development drive in western China mirrors Russian efforts in the east.

“It would be a great boost to east Russia’s development if China’s business community can actively participate in investment projects in Siberia and the far east,” Denisov said.

Russia will also push for aligning the reincarnation of a China-led Silk Road Economic Belt and the Eurasia transport and logistics passageway being built by Russia, asserted the Russian envoy on Friday.

Putin, had earlier this year, proposed aligning China’s Silk Route revival project with Russian plans for a trans-Siberian railway.

“We see great potential in the idea of developing a common SCO transport system that would make use too of Russia’s Trans-Siberian Railway and Baikal-Amur Mainline and be tied into China’s plans for developing the Silk Road route. I am sure that big projects of this kind serve the interests of our organisation’s members and would benefit all countries in Eurasia,” said Putin.

Moscow will also support China’s push for a roadmap on the massive free trade treaty: Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) during the APEC meet. Beijing plans to counter US’ progress in forming a Trans-Pacific Partnership that excludes China by an alternate mega Free Trade Agreement in the Asia Pacific.

“Obviously, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is just another U.S. attempt to build an architecture of regional economic cooperation that the USA would benefit from. At the same time, I believe that the absence of two major regional players such as Russia and China in its composition will not promote the establishment of effective trade and economic cooperation,” said Putin on Thursday in Moscow.

“The multilateral system of economic relations in the APR can only be strong if the interests of all states of the region are taken into account. This approach is reflected in the draft of the Beijing road map for the establishment of an Asia-Pacific free trade area. The draft is to be discussed at the forthcoming meeting of APEC leaders,” he added
 
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