The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[Beidou2020]

A Chinese guided missile destroyer takes part in a week-long China-Russia navy exercise int the East China Sea off Shanghai in 2014. Photo: AP

The alarm should have sounded a couple of months ago when Chinese commentators began quoting Vladimir Putin, that "if a fight is inevitable, go and fight first".

But warning bells are ringing loudly now after China declared this week Russia will send warships into the disputed South China Sea to conduct joint navy exercises.

The startling development will bring yet another great power into what has fast become a global flashpoint right in Australia's neighbourhood.

And you shouldn't be surprised that Australia is seen very much as a player in this growing dispute.

Just have a read of a firecracker editorial published in China's state-run Global Times on Saturday, calling for "revenge" after the decision by Foreign Minister Julie Bishop last week to join Japan and the US in calling for Beijing to respect international law.

"If Australia steps into the South China Sea waters, it will be an ideal target for China to warn and strike," the paper thundered.

A Chinese missile frigate Yuncheng launches an anti-ship missile during a military exercise in the waters near south China's Hainan Island. Photo: AP

Australia is not even a 'paper tiger,' it's only a 'paper cat' at best."

How much you take the Global Times as delivering a not-too-subtle official threat on behalf of the authorities in Beijing - and some in Canberra will interpret it that way - or just a shrill bluff really depends on how you judge China's intentions.

One thing is certain, as defence hardheads well know, is that if China really did think Australia was no more significant than a "paper cat", they wouldn't feel the need to say so.

Australia has resisted calls to follow the US lead and dispatch its own navy ships inside the sensitive 12-mile zone around China's artificial islands, just to show Canberra will not recognise any claims to sovereignty.

It was China's sweeping claim, known as the "nine dash line", that was declared illegal last month by an international tribunal.

But back to Russia, why Putin might feel the need to send his navy to this far distant waterway right now, and how much more complicated this dispute might soon become.

As Marina Tsirbas from the National Security College in Canberra observes, Russia is looking for any excuse to give the US a "poke in the eye".

Remember Putin made a dramatic intervention into the Syrian conflict last year by sending Russian fighter jets to bolster the failing regime of Bashar al Assad, much to the annoyance of the White House.

This promised naval deployment of Russian ships to the South China Sea also comes as a surprise, although Moscow has always insisted it should be seen as an "intrinsic" Pacific power, with a longstanding navy port in Vladivostok.

Russia has conducted navy drills with China elsewhere, and made a point of dispatching a small fleet of powerful warships off the coast of Australia when Putin's came to Brisbane in the "shirtfront" days after MH17 was shot down.

"China and Russia increasingly find themselves backing one another up when one of them is in confrontation with the West," says Michael Wesley, a foreign affairs specialist with the Australian National University.

Wesley doubts the two powers will forge an alliance - "they are not going to go to war for each other" - but may have moved beyond mere ties of convenience.

Yet Russia is not the first country to hold navy drills with China.

The Royal Australian Navy conducted live fire exercises with the Chinese navy a couple of years ago, drills that admittedly occurred in waters much further north, outside the South China Sea.

How significant this latest Russian intervention turns out to be really depends on the warships sent, how long they stay, and what they do.

A spokesman for Defence Minister Marise Payne said: "we expect that all parties will conduct themselves in accordance with international law."

Russia's presence might be more for symbolism than practical support, but either way, the crowd on the waters is growing.

 

[Beidou2020]

Beijing and Moscow have agreed that they will "proactively consider strengthening bilateral coordinating measures" to tackle the threat posed by the US and the Republic of Korea's plan to deploy a powerful antimissile system on the Korean Peninsula.

The consensus was reached during the fourth China-Russia Northeast Asia security consultation in Mosow on Thursday, according to a news release of the Foreign Ministry on Friday.

Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Kong Xuanyou and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov co-chaired the meeting.

Prior to the meeting, China had expressed strong dissatisfaction with and resolute opposition to the THAAD deployment in ROK territory as it damaged China's security interests and broke the strategic balance in the region, while Russia indicated a military response by deploying a missile unit in the Far Eastern region.

At the meeting, both sides voiced "serious concerns" over the advancing plan of deploying the THAAD antimissile system in the ROK.

The two countries agreed that the US unilaterally developing and deploying strategic antimissile systems "is not a constructive action" and will "exert negative influence upon the strategic balance, security and stability in the world and in the region".

China and Russia agreed that a necessary condition for denuclearizing the peninsula is to lower the military and political tension there.

Efforts that will lower such tension include downsizing the scale of military drills taking place in this region as well as building an atmosphere of mutual trust among the parties concerned.

They also urged both the ROK and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to resume dialogues to achieve inter-Korean reconciliation and create a sound environment for development on the Korean Peninsula.

Earlier this month, Seoul and Washington announced the agreement to install one THAAD battery in Seongju, a county some 250 km southeast of the ROK capital city, by the end of next year, as one way to counter the nuclear and missile threats posed by the DPRK.

 

[ahojunk]

At the moment it is all talk and no action by China.

Why can't China tighten some economic and political screws on South Korea?

This will let SK know that China means business.

 

[terranMarine]

At the moment it is all talk and no action by China.

Why can't China tighten some economic and political screws on South Korea?

This will let SK know that China means business.

Perhaps more aid to DPRK ? One thing is for sure both China and Russia aren't happy about THAAD and there will be response from both nations. Just wait and see what's gonna happen, patience bro

 

[AndrewJin]

At the moment it is all talk and no action by China.

Why can't China tighten some economic and political screws on South Korea?

This will let SK know that China means business.

Did you see the sales number of Samsung mobile phones in China?
It's like a genocide.
And they have to transfer more core technology to China, building more high-tech factories.

 

[ahojunk]

Did you see the sales number of Samsung mobile phones in China?
It's like a genocide.
And they have to transfer more core technology to China, building more high-tech factories.

.
Just impacting only Samsung is not enough.

Being nice is not good, as SK may take it as a sign of weakness!

China should tighten more political, economic and social "screws" against SK.

By "killing the chicken to scare the monkeys", Japan will also take notice!

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

SK had been advised behind the scenes to be wise and avoid provocations at the behest of trouble makers.

Sadly SK has not listen to good sense.

The joint Sino-russian missile excercises and China disclosing its BMDS are warning to SK to back off.

I fear SK is going the wrong road.

If tolerated it will set example of weakeness.

China will try to solve this through friendly diplomacy first and far most.

Otherwise, China will have to visit its toolset to find a proper response.

Regardless of which approach is chosen...there MUST be a robust Action by China.

Time for Non-Action, sadly, is over.

It is disturbing to see the trouble makers breeding only disharmony and chaos.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

SK had been advised behind the scenes to be wise and avoid provocations at the behest of trouble makers.

Sadly SK has not listen to good sense.

The joint Sino-russian missile excercises and China disclosing its BMDS are warning to SK to back off.

I fear SK is going the wrong road.

If tolerated it will set example of weakeness.

China will try to solve this through friendly diplomacy first and far most.

Otherwise, China will have to visit its toolset to find a proper response.

Regardless of which approach is chosen...there MUST be a robust Action by China.

Time for Non-Action, sadly, is over.

It is disturbing to see the trouble makers breeding only disharmony and chaos.

China was very clear, we wont allow any one making trouble in Korea peninsula to threaten the security or balance of the region, it's China's red line similar to what US draw it red line in Cuba region. I don't know what China gonna do but China certainly wont sit idle, we all will stay tune to see future development.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

China was very clear, we wont allow any one making trouble in Korea peninsula to threaten the security or balance of the region, it's China's red line similar to what US draw it red line in Cuba region. I don't know what China gonna do but China certainly wont sit idle, we all will stay tune to see future development.

Exactly.

If we loose an inch now we shall loose a mile tomorrow.

Chinese policy of friendship and co-development has been taken a weakness by the trouble makers and their puppets.

Be it NE or south...

Time for Clear Action.

At the same time we must remain with the Way and not fall into traps set for China both in the NE and south.

PLAN must also accelerate it modernisation with more potent platforms.

It is a multi-dimensional struggle now.

Many fronts opening at the same time.

The Dragon is mysterious, full of surprises.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

Exactly.

If we loose an inch now we shall loose a mile tomorrow.

Chinese policy of friendship and co-development has been taken a weakness by the trouble makers and their puppets.

Be it NE or south...

Time for Clear Action.

At the same time we must remain with the Way and not fall into traps set for China both in the NE and south.

PLAN must also accelerate it modernisation with more potent platforms.

It is a multi-dimensional struggle now.

Many fronts opening at the same time.

The Dragon is mysterious, full of surprises.

China today is not the China of 1950s to mid 1970s which we're isolated from the world, economically bad with no money for our army. As long as China remain the second economic power, 100+ billions on defense mean we will be able to take proper measure and find solution to the threat, without money you can just live with frustration to see enemy at your door step but can't do nothing. The most important for China now is to have a clear and decisive action, do what must be done with the money we earned, missing the window of opportunity will be a set back for China.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

China today is not the China of 1950s to mid 1970s which we're isolated from the world, economically bad with no money for our army. As long as China remain the second economic power, 100+ billions on defense mean we will be able to take proper measure and find solution to the threat, without money you can just live with frustration to see enemy at your door step but can't do nothing. The most important for China now is to have a clear and decisive action, do what must be done with the money we earned, missing the window of opportunity will be a set back for China.

You percieve it correctly, my brother.

This is a historic moment which will determine the fate of all asia.

The turning point in global power architecture is at the decision point.

Russia did what it had to do. The empire could do it no harm.

China needs to stand up and be firm.

I am the most pacifist that there is.

Only want to see peace and prosperity.

But the trouble makers need to be contained now.

They have been containing or trying to contain China for centuries.

Now it is time to contain the trouble makers.

 

[Beidou2020]

My solution is:

1) full scale buildup of the Chinese military.
2) abolish no-first-use nuclear policy.
3) significantly increase nuclear arsenal.
4) develop and deploy Chinese missile defence systems.
5) increase in Chinese military spending to 5% of GDP (the same figure as Russia and Israel).

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

My solution is:

1) full scale buildup of the Chinese military.
2) abolish no-first-use nuclear policy.
3) significantly increase nuclear arsenal.
4) develop and deploy Chinese missile defence systems.
5) increase in Chinese military spending to 5% of GDP (the same figure as Russia and Israel).

Personally, I think China should only invest on the most pay off solution to the threat, we can't just afford to go full aspect confrontation build up as URSS during the cold war.

 

[jhungary]

At the moment it is all talk and no action by China.

Why can't China tighten some economic and political screws on South Korea?

This will let SK know that China means business.

That's because there are no ledge for china to use against SK, at least not at the level that will hurt China itself. Trade are two way street, you cannot try to "teach" a lesson to some other country without hurting your own.

Do remember this is an internal affair of some other country, there are pretty much nothing China can do without looking like a bully. Hence, there won't be any action against the THAAD deployment.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

That's because there are no ledge for china to use against SK, at least not at the level that will hurt China itself. Trade are two way street, you cannot try to "teach" a lesson to some other country without hurting your own.

Do remember this is an internal affair of some other country, there are pretty much nothing China can do without looking like a bully. Hence, there won't be any action against the THAAD deployment.

Do you think if China place Radar in Cuba will be considered by American as internal affaire of other country?