The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[Martian2]

There are three great space-faring nations in the world. Yet, only two (China and the U.S.) are prosperous. Why is Russia a laggard (e.g. can't build five-axis machine tools, supercomputers, and semiconductor processors)?

An interesting problem is the Prisoner's Dilemma. How does China get Russia to build Amur River-bridges that would benefit both nations in trade? The Russians are strictly-logical people and cannot seem to transcend the bound of the Prisoner's Dilemma. Russian logic dictates that China will benefit more from Amur River-bridges. Thus, Russia has refused to agree to building bridges across the Sino-Russian border for decades. This is a lose-lose proposition, but perfectly logical under the Prisoner's Dilemma.

China and the United States play a much more complicated game. The Prisoner's Dilemma is an idealized academic problem. In the real world, the Prisoner's Dilemma surfaces repeatedly in multiple iterations. The Russians are pretty mindless simpletons and always play the non-cooperation card.

In contrast, China always play the cooperation card. In the majority of the cases, the United States reciprocate with cooperation. However, the United States will occasionally play the non-cooperation card (e.g. impose tariffs on Chinese solar panels). Intelligently, China responds with a non-cooperate response (e.g. ban all U.S. polysilicon suppliers to Chinese solar panel manufacturers). Due to Chinese retaliation, the U.S. makes the correct move and reverts back to cooperation (e.g. cut tariffs on Chinese solar panels in half from 30% to 15%).

The following "Nice Guys Finish First" video explains the dynamics of the Prisoner's Dilemma when played in multiple iterations as in real life. As you watch the video, remember the Russians always play "defect." China always plays "cooperate" initially and moves to "Tit for Tat" as a long-term strategy. The United States mostly plays "cooperate" with an occasional "defect" against China.

 

[tranquilium]

Pretty sure Russia can build supercomputers, and semiconductor processors just fine. Russia's current problem stems from failed economic reforms in Yelstin and Gorbachev era (not that the decade following USSR was any better). While it is tempting to blame that on some type of inherent fault, the reality is that shit happens. Reforms can succeed and fail, Russia was unfortunately enough to have more of latter and less of former.

 

[ito]

Who the f*** wrote this nonsense. As usual Chinese bragging on full display

Russia per capita: 23,200 PPP dollars
China per capita: 11,850 PPP dollars.

And how come China is more prosperous than Russia?

China is big on aggregate because it has large population.

 

[tranquilium]

Who the f*** wrote this nonsense. As usual Chinese bragging on full display

Russia per capita: 23,200 PPP dollars
China per capita: 11,850 PPP dollars.

And how come China is more prosperous than Russia?

China is big on aggregate because it has large population.

Look, the article is entirely aimed at Russia. Leave China alone.

 

[Martian2]

Pretty sure Russia can build supercomputers, and semiconductor processors just fine. Russia's current problem stems from failed economic reforms in Yelstin and Gorbachev era (not that the decade following USSR was any better). While it is tempting to blame that on some type of inherent fault, the reality is that shit happens. Reforms can succeed and fail, Russia was unfortunately enough to have more of latter and less of former.

Stop making nonsensical claims. Show me a reputable citation or stop making false claims.

Name a single advanced Russian semiconductor plant that can manufacture at 28nm or a more advanced node. You can't. It doesn't exist.

Who the f*** wrote this nonsense. As usual Chinese bragging on full display

Russia per capita: 23,200 PPP dollars
China per capita: 11,850 PPP dollars.

And how come China is more prosperous than Russia?

China is big on aggregate because it has large population.

Russian currency has fallen in half from 35 to 66 Rubles per US dollar. Your numbers are off by 50%. Also, Chinese GDP per capita has increased for last year.

Looking into the future, Chinese GDP will continue to grow at 7%. Russia has admitted its economy will contract and head into recession for the next two years. In conclusion, the claim (that China is prosperous and the future for Russia is bleak) is entirely reasonable.

 

[ito]

Stop making nonsensical claims. Show me a reputable citation or stop making false claims.

Name a single advanced Russian semiconductor plant that can manufacture at 28nm or a more advanced node. You can't. It doesn't exist.



Russian currency has fallen in half from 35 to 66 Rubles per US dollar. Your numbers are off by 50%. Also, Chinese GDP per capita has increased for last year.

Just because Russian currency falls, peoples living standards would not fall that fast. And see I have quoted the per capita by PPP.

You assume a lot. First Prisoners Dilemma is pure strategy game. Either players cooperate or compete. There are no grey areas. Countries both cooperate and compete at the same time. So no game theory here

 

[ito]

If you don't mind, this thread is for Chinese, Russians, and Americans. Thank you.

If you don't mind, this is an open forum. Indians, Chinese, Russians, and Americans are all welcome. If you don't like, leave the forum. Thank you.

 

[IsaacNewton]

I won't underestimate Russia. It is economically weak right now, but things will change. It has a very educated population, strong tradition in science and engineering, unlimited resources, and strong leadership. What it needs to be a superpower again is less tension with the west, and less corruption from the state.

Post Crimea war, Europe thought Russia was done for, until the Russo-Turkish war scared that crap out of Germany and Austria prompting them to form an alliance.

Post WW1, Russia was seen as an irrelevant power, they didn't even get much say in the Treaty of Versailles. They were economically weak, politically unstable, and militarily disorganized. Yet, under Stalin's 5 year plans, Russia became an industrial superpower.

When Hitler invaded Russia in 1941, many military analysts thought Russia would lose within half a year, yet by 1945, Russia emerged as a superpower.

Russia had trouble transforming from communism for many reasons. They over invested in military and heavy industry, so they lost a lot of skilled labor when they made the transaction. A lot of industries (like ship building) collapsed over night because of how the chain of commands was organized with in the USSR countries. Also, USA and Western Europe heavily recruited Soviet scientists and engineers ( 25% of USA STEM professors are of Soviet background for instance) causing a massive brain drain. This is compounded by corruption, civil war within Checnya, ect.

I think if you give Russia 20 years of peace, it will inevitably recover and become a superpower again. Russia has many capable people, but Putin and his gang running the country needs to go.

As far as Russia-China relation goes. Russia knows that it has the potential to be a superpower, along with China, but currently China is the stronger country economically. Russia does not want to be a little brother of China, so it is overly concerned about more economic relation with China. The good news is, this is changing. Russia and China's trade has increased many folds since last year, and many deals has been reached. I think within a few years, there will be a lot more people to people exchange between the two countries.

 

[rcrmj]

Who the f*** wrote this nonsense. As usual Chinese bragging on full display

Russia per capita: 23,200 PPP dollars
China per capita: 11,850 PPP dollars.

And how come China is more prosperous than Russia?

China is big on aggregate because it has large population.

Saudi has much higher PPP than the US, so it must be more prospers than the US? lol what kind of logic is that?

China is all-round development, but Russia has to rely heavy on natural resources, its heavy, light and IT industry is almost none existence compared to West Europe, U.S, Asia Pacific and China``so yes China is more prosper than Russia, there is no question about that

 

[ito]

Saudi has much higher PPP than the US, so it must be more prospers than the US? lol what kind of logic is that?

China is all-round development, but Russia has to rely heavy on natural resources, its heavy, light and IT industry is almost none existence compared to West Europe, U.S, Asia Pacific and China``so yes China is more prosper than Russia, there is no question about that

Prosperity is based on per capita and not on aggregate. If Saudi on an average earn more than a US citizen, then yes Saudi are more prosperous than US citizens

 

[JSCh]

If you talk about geopolitical moves, there are cooperation and competition among all 3 parties.

I think both Russian and US do not cooperate when they perceive that China is going to gain quite a bit MORE.

Under those circumstances, I think we could expect the Russian to at least left the option for cooperation open. The same cannot be said for the US. For eg. space industry and technology.

I think your perception of Russian play defect always, is because you expect too much from the Russian.

The best scenario would of course be that one day in the future, China is capable enough to bring more to the cooperation. And of course, long term trust is very important.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Normally, Russia's favored trade partners should always be the Europe and the West.

That was their own personal choice as being racially/culturally closer to the West.

However, now under this special circumstance, we always welcome for more bilateral ties and cooperation.

And the door is always opened for Russia whenever they are willing to enhance the cooperation.

 

[opruh]

Who the f*** wrote this nonsense. As usual Chinese bragging on full display

Russia per capita: 23,200 PPP dollars
China per capita: 11,850 PPP dollars.

And how come China is more prosperous than Russia?

China is big on aggregate because it has large population.

The author is probably the one bragging not China, you illiterate Indian.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Just because Russian currency falls, peoples living standards would not fall that fast. And see I have quoted the per capita by PPP.

You assume a lot. First Prisoners Dilemma is pure strategy game. Either players cooperate or compete. There are no grey areas. Countries both cooperate and compete at the same time. So no game theory here

The living standard in China might not be necessarily lower just because of the currency standard.

 

[Keel]

Who the f*** wrote this nonsense. As usual Chinese bragging on full display

Russia per capita: 23,200 PPP dollars
China per capita: 11,850 PPP dollars.

And how come China is more prosperous than Russia?

China is big on aggregate because it has large population.

PPP is just one out of many ways of measuring prosperity.

There is a Prosperity Index hereunder which evaluates prosperity based on:

Economy, Entrepreneurial Opportunity, Governance, Education, Health, Safety and Security, Personal Freedom, Social Capital
http://www.prosperity.com/#!/ranking

2014 ranking:
China @ 54
Russia @68
Saudi Arabia @47

So some of the comments from our compatriots were right. There is no China-bragging here. China is better than Russia but not by a lot. You may group the above 3 countries in the same bracket by and large.

... err where is India?

@ 102