The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[Stryker1982]

It’s on hold till after mid terms.

If Dems win and hold control, Biden will have enough political capital for a deal. If Dems get swept, it will then be tough for Iran to sign a deal with a party that will be ousted in 2024. Iran is watching this closely.

Plus Rahbar has not talked about the negotiations —another warning sign. Until he addresses the deal in more positive light no breakthrough is coming.

If they sense Russia weakness, they may opt to build. Can do it in less than a month.

 

[TheImmortal]

If they sense Russia weakness, they may opt to build. Can do it in less than a month.

Would be obvious if they try to build since they need to transfer uranium into a metal for the core and IAEA will spot that in inspections.

Unless Iran has a secret nuclear workshop that is enriching uranium and fabricating it into metal plus would need an off the grid uranium/yellowcake supply. Given that past nuclear activities at undisclosed sites has been found out, I am slightly skeptical such black sites exist today.

Iran’s nukes won’t help it outside of land invasion. Look at Russia, they have thousands and are being weakened via sanctions and proxy war (favorite tools of West). Putin is facing heat for the first time in his reign.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Would be obvious if they try to build since they need to transfer uranium into a metal for the core and IAEA will spot that in inspections.

Unless Iran has a secret nuclear workshop that is enriching uranium and fabricating it into metal plus would need an off the grid uranium/yellowcake supply. Given that past nuclear activities at undisclosed sites has been found out, I am slightly skeptical such black sites exist today.

Iran’s nukes won’t help it outside of land invasion. Look at Russia, they have thousands and are being weakened via sanctions and proxy war (favorite tools of West). Putin is facing heat for the first time in his reign.

for that they need first enrich it to 95%+ other wise if they transform 60% into metal , its just for fuel rods

 

[SalarHaqq]

Would be obvious if they try to build since they need to transfer uranium into a metal for the core and IAEA will spot that in inspections.

Unless Iran has a secret nuclear workshop that is enriching uranium and fabricating it into metal plus would need an off the grid uranium/yellowcake supply. Given that past nuclear activities at undisclosed sites has been found out, I am slightly skeptical such black sites exist today.

This assumes Iran would want to acquire them covertly and maintain a secret arsenal without disclosing it. What if a decision is made by Iran to declare herself a military nuclear power? In that case it wouldn't matter much if the IAEA detects it, unless the USA thinks it has a politically and militarily affordable way of interrupting the building process itself, knowing that it shouldn't take more than some weeks for Irans to get there.

 

[Stryker1982]

This assumes Iran would want to acquire them covertly and maintain a secret arsenal without disclosing it. What if a decision is made by Iran to declare herself a military nuclear power? In that case it wouldn't matter much if the IAEA detects it, unless the USA thinks it has a politically and military feasible way of interrupting the building process itself, knowing that it shouldn't take more than some weeks.

This was what I was refering to. Didn't say anything about doing it discreetly, but just doing it whenever IF they think it is the best decision to make, should it become apparent that no deal is possible. Banking on the fact that a military option is not possible. The SL has been much more quiet this time around than in 2015. I am not sure he trusts the political situation in the US.

Would be obvious if they try to build since they need to transfer uranium into a metal for the core and IAEA will spot that in inspections.

Unless Iran has a secret nuclear workshop that is enriching uranium and fabricating it into metal plus would need an off the grid uranium/yellowcake supply. Given that past nuclear activities at undisclosed sites has been found out, I am slightly skeptical such black sites exist today.

Iran’s nukes won’t help it outside of land invasion. Look at Russia, they have thousands and are being weakened via sanctions and proxy war (favorite tools of West). Putin is facing heat for the first time in his reign.

 

[Stryker1982]

Senior Israeli official: The West does no longer believe there will be an agreement with Iran.

"We (Israel) don't know when they will walk out of the talks, but they no longer believe there will be an agreement."

The Israeli official added that Israel presented recent-new intelligence information to the US and Europeans that shows Iranians are tricking them"

 

[Sineva]

Senior Israeli official: The West does no longer believe there will be an agreement with Iran.

"We (Israel) don't know when they will walk out of the talks, but they no longer believe there will be an agreement."

The Israeli official added that Israel presented recent-new intelligence information to the US and Europeans that shows Iranians are tricking them"

The problem for the west is that it simply doesnt have any good alternatives,if not the deal,then what?.
Virtually every other option brings with it the serious risk of bringing about the very thing that it most wants to avoid,a nuclear armed iri.
However set against this is the wests long history in the mena region of often making the bad choice,or the even worse choice,not to mention its stubborn insistence on refusing to learn the lesson of unintended consequences.

 

[Stryker1982]

The problem for the west is that it simply doesnt have any good alternatives,if not the deal,then what?.
Virtually every other option brings with it the serious risk of bringing about the very thing that it most wants to avoid,a nuclear armed iri.
However set against this is the wests long history in the mena region of often making the bad choice,or the even worse choice,not to mention its stubborn insistence on refusing to learn the lesson of unintended consequences.

I've seen some copium from analysists that their is some chatter in the US that they have to "learn to live" with a new nuclear power in the club.

I really don't think they have the willpower for another war, it's a gamble I will admit, but decent odds, and the Israeli's cant do shit now at all. They can still do some pointless strikes, but without those new tankers their sorties will not be as effective.

The threshold has been crossed by Iran, now it's really about the willpower on the Iranian side to build a arsenal, or maybe decide they truly don't need them, but want to keep the potential .

I must say, this year is a pivotal year for Iran and the future direction it wants to go towards. Is this new world era require Iran with nuclear weapons, or does it not?

The Supreme leader and the crew should think very hard about what 20 years from now could look like.

 

[Trench Broom]

Israel has prevented the deal by presenting the Americans and Europeans with new evidence that Iran has been lying all along. I mean, we all knew they were lying. Iranians know they're lying, every regime puppet mouthpiece on these forums knows the regime is lying. What's happened now is that Israel has finally convinced the west with evidence that Iran is a habitual lying terror state that should not be trusted. Finally, at the 11th hour, the Europeans and Americans have realised this.

No deal and no end to sanctions. War it is.

 

[Stryker1982]

Israel has prevented the deal by presenting the Americans and Europeans with new evidence that Iran has been lying all along. I mean, we all knew they were lying. Iranians know they're lying, every regime puppet mouthpiece on these forums knows the regime is lying. What's happened now is that Israel has finally convinced the west with evidence that Iran is a habitual lying terror state that should not be trusted. Finally, at the 11th hour, the Europeans and Americans have realised this.

No deal and no end to sanctions. War it is.

I agree, they will learn to live a nuclear Iran.

 

[Stryker1982]

Decent chance the deal is dead now. See thread

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569460089425362950

 

[_Nabil_]

Decent chance the deal is dead now. See thread

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569460089425362950

Probably true, the west don't want Iran to strengthen its economy, now the ball is in Iranian camp .....

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

Probably true, the west don't want Iran to strengthen its economy, now the ball is in Iranian camp .....

The ball is not in Iran's camp anymore since they are sticking with their red lines, much to the dismay of E3 and Borrell. We are at a deadend.

 

[TheImmortal]

The ball is not in Iran's camp anymore since they are sticking with their red lines, much to the dismay of E3 and Borrell. We are at a deadend.

We were at a dead end long before this. No point in negotiating a deal before the US mid terms. Why would you sign a deal with the power that could be swept in elections.

Luckily recent data and preliminaries show that Democrats won’t get their a$$ kicked as bad as once thought. Gas prices down, inflation slowing, economy is still humming, unemployment still very low. Biden had some accomplishments plus student loan forgiveness.

Iran is wait and see till Nov.

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

We were at a dead end long before this. No point in negotiating a deal before the US mid terms. Why would you sign a deal with the power that could be swept in elections.

Luckily recent data and preliminaries show that Democrats won’t get their a$$ kicked as bad as once thought. Gas prices down, inflation slowing, economy is still humming, unemployment still very low. Biden had some accomplishments plus student loan forgiveness.

Iran is wait and see till Nov.

There is no indication that Iran or US will change their stance now, tomorrow or after mid-terms. Its all speculation. If the mid-term results are just as close as the election was then that wont put fears to rest for anyone, and 2 years will not be long enough for Iran to get any use out of the deal. I think it's finito!

All those reasons stated in your second paragraph is actually more indicative of US playing hard ball and driving a tough deal after the midterms.

Me thinks Iran is sticking to its guns whilst sharpening its knife.