The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[Philosopher]

Like it or not the Rohani government has alot of supporters inside Iran, especially among those pro US crowds. As long someone like Rouhani is in the office those crowds and their ideas will be fed and kept alive and will in general tie the hands of the supreme leader and the estabilishment from advancing the nuclear program.

Khamenei is a leader that frequently asks his advisors to visit people and measure their opinion and he considers the opposing party worthy of having discussions. If someone like Ahmadinejad is going to take office this will greatly influence the mind of the supreme leader that the nation is with him and united (e.g. the 80's wartime situation with Iraq).

In other words : Reformists try to appease the west and Khamenei reluctantly agrees with them everytime.

In my opinion, Khamenei is extremely experienced and he alone can pull it off and place Iran in a very good position. I just hope he chooses this path before he goes.

The point here is that the reformist administration of Rouhani tried to make a deal and it failed so far. They are not given infinite chances at this. This is why I said if this deal falls parts, Khamenei will not approve of another set of negotiation, not anytime soon anyway. As for this notion of advancing the nuclear program, Iran's overt nuclear program was used a bargaining chip to try and lift the sanctions. If Iran was interested in an actual nuclear weapon, this would be done covertly and there is nothing a government, like Rouhani's could do to stop it. That's why I said Iran's open nuclear program is grown at a calculated rate and used as a negotiation tool. This was a clever tactic, the only issue here is, the deal signed was flawed.

Don't think that Biden will be any different from Trump. Trump is an honest man, exposing his ideas and his intentions in a foolish way. The Democrats are also committed to the security of Israel, which means that any deal with them will have the same fate. As a matter of fact, the Obama administration violated the deal just like the Trump administration. We got lucky that Trump pulled out of it.

The deal signed was flawed. The focused mostly only on certain sanctions and did not others. A democratic president will try to "save" the JCPOA, but obviously if they try (good chance they will) to continue to play games, then the deal is gone. I think they needed someone like Jalili to negotiate.

 

[Draco.IMF]

for historical context
here is video of Rouhani letter to EU3
Jan 24, 2020

Iran President Rouhani in letter to Europeans (The U.K., France and Germany, EU3) to quit Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if referred to the UN Security Council
https://tn.ai/2187043

@yavar

brother, whats your opinion, what will be the consequences?

 

[Rukarl]

The point here is that the reformist administration of Rouhani tried to make a deal and it failed so far. They are not given infinite chances at this. This is why I said if this deal falls parts, Khamenei will not approve of another set of negotiation, not anytime soon anyway. As for this notion of advancing the nuclear program, Iran's overt nuclear program was used a bargaining chip to try and lift the sanctions. If Iran was interested in an actual nuclear weapon, this would be done covertly and there is nothing a government, like Rouhani's could do to stop it. That's why I said Iran's open nuclear program is grown at a calculated rate and used as a negotiation tool. This was a clever tactic, the only issue here is, the deal signed was flawed.

I am not saying Khamenei will give infinite chances to the reformist camp. I am saying that the reformists could influence Khamenei to go easy on the nuclear path, meaning delay and giving into the threats and demands of the Europeans and Americans.

The only chance this deal gets revived is if Biden wins and the US joins rejoins the deal which is kinda impossible. All the signs point to a Trump reelection and another 5 years of the same. A short war with the US looks inevitable especially during the later stages of Trumps second presidency.

That is why i suggest Khamenei should be doing the right thing for the country and estabilish a developed and modern nuclear (weapons) program with the shortest breakout time possible, the latter is extremely important and that is exactly the thing that will prevent an attack on Iranian mainland in the future.

The idea of developing and testing a tactical nuke within a few weeks time should be enough to keep Iran's enemies at the edge of their seat all the time. However i fully believe that the Iranian government is doing exactly the same thing, but it is stalling and negotiating the breakout time.

There should be no negotiations for the break out time. The fate of Iran's independence and future is at stake and it can only be secured by pure deterrence.

That being said, the supreme leader is now 80 years old exactly and the most optimistic prediction adds another 20 years (if khamenei achieves becoming 100 years old) of certainty to the decision making process inside Iran. After that it is anyones guess and extremely uncertain. We should avoid that.

 

[yavar]

@yavar

brother, whats your opinion, what will be the consequences?

Iran President Rouhani says it will quit Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

 

[Rukarl]

Iran President Rouhani says it will quit Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

If he indeed said that (please give a source) then it means the US has to accept Iran going full nuclear with 0 transparency or a few regular arm sales.

 

[yavar]

If he indeed said that (please give a source) then it means the US has to accept Iran going full nuclear with 0 transparency or a few regular arm sales.

I already have,
Iran President Rouhani in letter to Europeans (The U.K., France and Germany, EU3) to quit Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if referred to the UN Security Council
https://tn.ai/2187043
TEHRAN (Tasnim) news agencey

here is IRIB report from President Rouhani office in Pastor Tehran after he sent the later to EU3

for historical context
here is video of Rouhani letter to EU3
Jan 24, 2020

Iran President Rouhani in letter to Europeans (The U.K., France and Germany, EU3) to quit Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if referred to the UN Security Council
https://tn.ai/2187043

============================================
+
to add for Iranian members only
the back door negotiation has already started with our two be loved allies country which you all know which countries i am talking about ( nothing less then enemies, blood sucking ....b...)

and U.S. has already drafted resolution ready to go,

the EU3 have already started depetuped mechanism in JCPOA

E3 triggers Iran nuclear deal dispute settlement mechanism ...

so the legal process with in JCPOA and international law has started no kidding


so the stage is ready to go

it all depends what concession U.S. offers how big

آمریکا و روسیه مذاکرات استراتژیک را به زودی از سر می‌گیرند

معاون وزیر خارجه روسیه امروز (جمعه) اعلام کرد، آمریکا و روسیه به زودی گفت‌وگوها درباره "ثبات استراتژیک" را از سر می‌گیرند
ترامپ بر تمایل خود برای کنترل تسلیحات و عقد معاهده‌ای جدید در این زمینه با روسیه و چین سخن گفت..
https://www.isna.ir/news/99021913602/

and what do people think will be on top of agenda ???

 

[yavar]

 

[QWECXZ]

The deal signed was flawed. The focused mostly only on certain sanctions and did not others. A democratic president will try to "save" the JCPOA, but obviously if they try (good chance they will) to continue to play games, then the deal is gone. I think they needed someone like Jalili to negotiate.

Jalili negotiated with them, they didn't like him because Jalili didn't want to give them one-sided concessions. Also, being injured by Saddam's chemical warfare against Iran, he openly blamed them for it. They hailed Zarif in their media for 2 years because Zarif was paving the way for them to halt our nuclear program without any trouble.

The deal was designed and signed knowing that it is flawed. Zarif and his team knew it very well. Sergei Lagrov later said that Russia and China insisted that the UN embargo on arms sales to Iran should end after the first year of implementing the JCPOA, but the French and the Americans opposed it. Zarif ignored the Russians and accepted a 5 year timeline for lifting of the UN arms embargo because he wanted to sign the deal at any cost and he didn't want the negotiations to become longer. The deal was supposed to be advertised as a triumph of diplomacy over resistance and to make the reformists gain popularity in Iran. It was also supposed to be advertised as Iran shifting toward the West (Europe mainly) instead of Russia and China.

I said it a year ago, my comments are still available on this thread, that this deal was by far the worst treason in the history of Iran. Not only it stopped Iran's nuclear program and sent it back, but I predicted that if the Rouhani administration is waiting for the UN arms embargo to be lifted, it will never happen. I stand by what I said and I am happy to see that everything I said a year ago is being proven right.

 

[Draco.IMF]

I already have,
Iran President Rouhani in letter to Europeans (The U.K., France and Germany, EU3) to quit Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if referred to the UN Security Council
https://tn.ai/2187043
TEHRAN (Tasnim) news agencey

here is IRIB report from President Rouhani office in Pastor Tehran after he sent the later to EU3



============================================
+
to add for Iranian members only
the back door negotiation has already started with our two be loved allies country which you all know which countries i am talking about ( nothing less then enemies, blood sucking ....b...)

and U.S. has already drafted resolution ready to go,

the EU3 have already started depetuped mechanism in JCPOA

E3 triggers Iran nuclear deal dispute settlement mechanism ...

so the legal process with in JCPOA and international law has started no kidding


so the stage is ready to go

it all depends what concession U.S. offers how big

آمریکا و روسیه مذاکرات استراتژیک را به زودی از سر می‌گیرند

معاون وزیر خارجه روسیه امروز (جمعه) اعلام کرد، آمریکا و روسیه به زودی گفت‌وگوها درباره "ثبات استراتژیک" را از سر می‌گیرند
ترامپ بر تمایل خود برای کنترل تسلیحات و عقد معاهده‌ای جدید در این زمینه با روسیه و چین سخن گفت..
https://www.isna.ir/news/99021913602/

and what do people think will be on top of agenda ???

so Russia & China again batraying Iran?
maybe leaving NPT and showing the big mamas (including special warheads), putting more satellites into orbit is the way to go,
maybe thats the correct path, we will see
in my opinion Iran has not much too loose aynmore, diplomacy with the devil is useless
the only language they understand is strength...

 

[Shawnee]

Omar is a Muslim brotherhood sympathizer and anti-Assad. She will sign anything against Iran and Assad.

 

[yavar]

so Russia & China again batraying Iran?
maybe leaving NPT and showing the big mamas (including special warheads), putting more satellites into orbit is the way to go,
maybe thats the correct path, we will see
in my opinion Iran has not much too loose aynmore, diplomacy with the devil is useless
the only language they understand is strength...

Let hope that if the Arm embargo
Extended president Rouhani be able to keep its promise and sign Iran out of NPT , if he does that then there will be major international crisis for U.S. and since U.S. lack logic it will straight way go use force,

On that moment and time the Islam Republic has no there choice to play some of it hand and show the world that it has very lethal means to defend its self and that will change calculus of U.S.

 

[Shawnee]

وقتی کسی تهدید به نابودی تل اویو و حیفا می کنه یعنی خیالش از کارایی ضربه اول و ضربه دومش راحته. وگرنه شما حیفا و تل اویو رو با موشک عادی هم نابود کنی جواب هسته ای میگیری.

قدرت هسته ای رو برای همون وقت ساختند دیگه. ضربه دوم قابل اطمینان پیچیدست و خیلی بیشتر از یکدونه بمب ساختنه.

ضربه دوم باید با وجود حمله اولیه وسیع هسته ای به شهرها و حتی کوه های کشور و حملات هسته ای مکرر الکترومغناطیسی و فقدان مخابرات و اطلاع رسانی اولیه بتونه پاسخ توبه اور بده

تکنولوژی هسته ای مال هفتاد هشتاد سال پیشه و از ماهواره ژئو اسونتره.

البته سارین و بالاخص وی اکس و نوویچوک هم در حجم کافی همون قدرت هسته ای رو داره و یه جورایی حتی بدتر هم هست

 

[Rukarl]

so Russia & China again batraying Iran?
maybe leaving NPT and showing the big mamas (including special warheads), putting more satellites into orbit is the way to go,
maybe thats the correct path, we will see
in my opinion Iran has not much too loose aynmore, diplomacy with the devil is useless
the only language they understand is strength...

They have tried sabotage,murder, sanctions. What else is left ? Big war ? I doubt it. They will high likely stick to the sanctions path but even that is exhausted already. What is left to sanction, Iranian onion industry ?

Let hope that if the Arm embargo
Extended president Rouhani be able to keep its promise and sign Iran out of NPT , if he does that then there will be major international crisis for U.S. and since U.S. lack logic it will straight way go use force,

On that moment and time the Islam Republic has no there choice to play some of it hand and show the world that it has very lethal means to defend its self and that will change calculus of U.S.

lol US won't attack Iran if it leaves the NPT.

 

[Kastor]

They have tried sabotage,murder, sanctions. What else is left ? Big war ? I doubt it. They will high likely stick to the sanctions path but even that is exhausted already. What is left to sanction, Iranian onion industry ?


lol US won't attack Iran if it leaves the NPT.

Very true....if they could attack Iran they would have done it a 100x over already. One thing we can learn from the past is the U.S. is not shy about thumping smaller, weaker countries without even a second thought. Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Grenada, Panama, Bosnia/Serbia, Vietnam, Korea, Somalia, El Salvador, Nicaragua....etc....etc. They've been one of the most destructive forces on the planet since mankind learned to walk up right.

PS: I don't think we should leave the NPT, I think we should clandestinely develop nukes....when the first underground test blast goes off, the whole calculus will change.

 

[QWECXZ]

Very true....if they could attack Iran they would have done it a 100x over already. One thing we can learn from the past is the U.S. is not shy about thumping smaller, weaker countries without even a second thought. Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Grenada, Panama, Bosnia/Serbia, Vietnam, Korea, Somalia, El Salvador, Nicaragua....etc....etc. They've been one of the most destructive forces on the planet since mankind learned to walk up right.

PS: I don't think we should leave the NPT, I think we should clandestinely develop nukes....when the first underground test blast goes off, the whole calculus will change.

Well, even though I agree with you that an all-out invasion of Iran is out of the question, but they have the military prowess to hit our infrastructures and get away with it.

Meanwhile, I don't think that Iran can build nuclear weapons without western intelligence agencies realizing it. We need at least 60 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (+90%) to develop three nukes. One for testing, two for possibly using them in future. How can we have that much HEU with our current capacities? We can't directly go for a plutonium bomb either because we need a breeder reactor for that and we lost the Arak IR-40 reactor. And building a breeder reactor and using remote separation methods to separate uranium from plutonium cannot be hidden from spy satellites easily. And that's besides the fact that a gun-type uranium bomb is way easier to build than a plutonium bomb.

Maybe we should go the Calutron path like Saddam did? It's easier to hide, but too slow and inefficient.