The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[Rukarl]

Very true....if they could attack Iran they would have done it a 100x over already. One thing we can learn from the past is the U.S. is not shy about thumping smaller, weaker countries without even a second thought. Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Grenada, Panama, Bosnia/Serbia, Vietnam, Korea, Somalia, El Salvador, Nicaragua....etc....etc. They've been one of the most destructive forces on the planet since mankind learned to walk up right.

PS: I don't think we should leave the NPT, I think we should clandestinely develop nukes....when the first underground test blast goes off, the whole calculus will change.

I explained here before that the trigger for a Semnan underground nuclear weapon test is an attack on the Iranian mainland. Any bomb that is going to fall on Iranian soil is going to force the IRGC and the clerical leadership to change their doctrine, including pursuement of nuclear weapons as a deterrence to scare off another future attack on Iran's sovereignty. Because the current strategy of securing Iran and bringing the battle far away has been working perfectly fine.

If that strategy is going to hit a bump expect drastic policy changes. Iran is no Libya.

Why you think there have been no attack inside Iranian borders for the past 40+ years ? Western spy agencies are fully aware what the real story is.

Well, even though I agree with you that an all-out invasion of Iran is out of the question, but they have the military prowess to hit our infrastructures and get away with it.

Meanwhile, I don't think that Iran can build nuclear weapons without western intelligence agencies realizing it. We need at least 60 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (+90%) to develop three nukes. One for testing, two for possibly using them in future. How can we have that much HEU with our current capacities? We can't directly go for a plutonium bomb either because we need a breeder reactor for that and we lost the Arak IR-40 reactor. And building a breeder reactor and using remote separation methods to separate uranium from plutonium cannot be hidden from spy satellites easily. And that's besides the fact that a gun-type uranium bomb is way easier to build than a plutonium bomb.

Maybe we should go the Calutron path like Saddam did? It's easier to hide, but too slow and inefficient.

You give too much credit to the capabilities of Western intelligence agencies. They are just good at the political understanding and what they understand of the current situation (look my previous post). They know what Iran's red line is and they won't ever cross it.

Why building nukes publicly and risk further isolation when you can blackmail them step by step with an ever increasing nuclear breakout capacity ? Keeping them on the edge of their seat all the time with the break out time is a permanent nightmare for them.

That is what Iran has been doing all the time, they reward Washington's sanctions with one advancing step.

 

[QWECXZ]

You give too much credit to the capabilities of Western intelligence agencies. They are just good at the political understanding and what they understand of the current situation (look my previous post). They know what Iran's red line is and they won't ever cross it.

Why building nukes publicly and risk further isolation when you can blackmail them step by step with an ever increasing nuclear breakout capacity ? Keeping them on the edge of their seat all the time with the break out time is a permanent nightmare for them.

That is what Iran has been doing all the time, they reward Washington's sanctions with one advancing step.

I don't give credit to the capabilities of Western intelligence agencies, I give credit to the treason of some people inside Iran.

Well, the breakout capacity you are talking about is about 7 months to a full year if Iran employs its maximum enrichment capacity. How do you plan to build 3 nukes with 360 kilograms of LEU (4.5%) enriched uranium? The truth is that the break out time is long enough for them to take out our nuclear infrastructure. Unless we have a covert program that they never find out about, which is hard to do.

What steps are you talking about? I agree that we are making good progress in the military industry, but our nuclear industry has been set back to before 2009 and we aren't progressing beyond the 2009 numbers.

 

[Rukarl]

I don't give credit to the capabilities of Western intelligence agencies, I give credit to the treason of some people inside Iran.

Well, the breakout capacity you are talking about is about 7 months to a full year if Iran employs its maximum enrichment capacity. How do you plan to build 3 nukes with 360 kilograms of LEU (4.5%) enriched uranium? The truth is that the break out time is long enough for them to take out our nuclear infrastructure. Unless we have a covert program that they never find out about, which is hard to do.

What steps are you talking about? I agree that we are making good progress in the military industry, but our nuclear industry has been set back to before 2009 and we aren't progressing beyond the 2009 numbers.

My friend, a) they are not going to bomb Iran's nuclear program. Period. It is just not going to happen.
Sabotage, threats, rewards etc yes.

b) You are witnessing the nuclear drama that is for public consumption. There is another program by the IRGC, no one knows the details of that.

What i can tell you, time will tell.

 

[QWECXZ]

My friend, a) they are not going to bomb Iran's nuclear program. Period. It is just not going to happen.
Sabotage, threats, rewards etc yes.

b) You are witnessing the nuclear drama that is for public consumption. There is another program by the IRGC, no one knows the details of that.

What i can tell you, time will tell.

A) Well, they are not upgrading their bunker busters for nothing.

B) I'm keeping my fingers crossed for an IRGC nuclear program. But the current nuclear program that the world is aware of has been stalled. It is good for nothing. It's not even good as a commercial nuclear program.

 

[Rukarl]

A) Well, they are not upgrading their bunker busters for nothing.

B) I'm keeping my fingers crossed for an IRGC nuclear program. But the current nuclear program that the world is aware of has been stalled. It is good for nothing. It's not even good as a commercial nuclear program.

The US and Israel in particular would not be insisting if we were not at a advanced stage. I believe there is a parallel nuclear weapons program but time will tell.

 

[Shawnee]

During Obama period around 2014, Iran was accused of conducting a nuclear test around Kermanshah/Kurdistan.

There were cylinders for very high pressure blast found in Iran in 1990s. It was thought to be used for a small nuke test or making artificial diamonds.

Harvaght kaar be jaaye baarik mirese, mooshakhaaye tuye kooh ro neshun midan. Taraf ham asabani mige payaam khatarnaaki midi.

I know two critical point messages:
1. Tel Aviv Haifa messages, 2. Missiles inside granite mountains

Khob mushak tu kuh yani chi? ضربه دوم

 

[Kastor]

I explained here before that the trigger for a Semnan underground nuclear weapon test is an attack on the Iranian mainland. Any bomb that is going to fall on Iranian soil is going to force the IRGC and the clerical leadership to change their doctrine, including pursuement of nuclear weapons as a deterrence to scare off another future attack on Iran's sovereignty. Because the current strategy of securing Iran and bringing the battle far away has been working perfectly fine.

If that strategy is going to hit a bump expect drastic policy changes. Iran is no Libya.

Why you think there have been no attack inside Iranian borders for the past 40+ years ? Western spy agencies are fully aware what the real story is.


You give too much credit to the capabilities of Western intelligence agencies. They are just good at the political understanding and what they understand of the current situation (look my previous post). They know what Iran's red line is and they won't ever cross it.

Why building nukes publicly and risk further isolation when you can blackmail them step by step with an ever increasing nuclear breakout capacity ? Keeping them on the edge of their seat all the time with the break out time is a permanent nightmare for them.

That is what Iran has been doing all the time, they reward Washington's sanctions with one advancing step.

Again you are correct....I wasn't implying that there has been no attack...I meant open bombing and warfare on our soil. I hope you're correct about parallel program. Iran needs to learn how to use the International press like Israel does.......we can pursue the nukes and when or if it gets uncovered we can blame it on Israel's and U.S. aggression towards us.....the sanctions regime is grounds for war if it was pointed towards any of the other major power.

 

[yavar]

lol US won't attack Iran if it leaves the NPT.

I didn’t say U.S will attack,

Most possible scenario is blockade

After UNSC

Which we are fully ready for

So please read carefully before quoting my post

 

[QWECXZ]

Guys, what do you make of this tweet by the leader?

من معتقدم امام حسن مجتبى شجاع‌ترین چهره‌ى تاریخ اسلام است. ایشان حاضر شد خود را و نام خود را در میان دوستان نزدیکش، فداى مصلحت واقعى کند و تن به صلح دهد، براى اینکه دیدبانى اسلام و حفاظت از قرآن و هدایت نسلهاى آینده‌ى تاریخ را در موقع خود انجام دهد.

Negotiations?

 

[Shawnee]

Guys, what do you make of this tweet by the leader?

​

Negotiations?

It is not in his tweets. Did he remove it?

 

[QWECXZ]

It is not in his tweets. Did he remove it?

I don't know. I didn't check his twitter, but local newspapers have published it too, including Mashreghnews which is a far right newspaper. https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1070535

 

[Shawnee]

I don't know. I didn't check his twitter, but local newspapers have published it too, including Mashreghnews which is a far right newspaper. https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1070535

Found it in Farsi page only.
He has said that multiple times before and maybe every year.
I don’t think he means negotiating. He was reluctant to deal with even Obama.

 

[QWECXZ]

Found it in Farsi page only.
He has said that multiple times before and maybe every year.
I don’t think he means negotiating. He was reluctant to deal with even Obama.

Yet he gave Rouhani the green light to negotiate with the Americans.

I can't think of any other interpretation of his tweet.

 

[Shawnee]

He wrote a book on that peace and it is his area of expertise. He just likes to talk about it and this is not the first time.


صلح الحسن (کتاب)
صلح الحسن علیه‌السلام

اطلاعات کتاب
نویسنده: شیخ راضی آل یاسین
موضوع: جریان صلح امام حسن(ع)
سبک: تحلیلی
زبان: عربی
مجموعه: ۱ جلد
اطلاعات نشر
ناشر: اعلمی
تاریخ نشر: ۱۴۱۲ ق
صُلحُ الحَسَن(ع) کتابی به زبان عربی درباره صلح امام حسن(ع)، نوشته شیخ راضی آل‌یاسین پژوهش‌گر و عالم شیعه(متوفای ۱۳۷۲ق). این کتاب، از معدود آثار تحلیلی و تفصیلی است که در سه بخش، درباره زندگانی امام حسن مجتبی(ع)، موقعیت سیاسی او و شرایط صلح امام با معاویه سخن گفته است. آیت‌الله سید علی خامنه‌ای این اثر را به فارسی برگردانده است

خداییش صلح با ترامپ بعد این همه کنایه به روحانی و صلح او با اوباما حتی به دلایل تاکتیکی
....

جدی نمیگیرم من مگر تاکتیکی

شاید بحث برداشت تحریم ها و کرونا

شاید بحث دیگه

من و شما از پشت صحنه خبر نداریم

نصرالله یه حرفی زد که با اطلاعات ماها معنی نمی داد.
گفت کرونا مثل موریانه شبه ابیطالبه‌

اونو بگذار کنار این

اگه احساساتی به مساله نگاه نکنیم، امتحانش ضرر نداره اگه نفعی نداشته باشه.

 

[mohsen]

I don't know. I didn't check his twitter, but local newspapers have published it too, including Mashreghnews which is a far right newspaper. https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1070535

It has nothing to do with the JCPOA, just defending the Imam Hassan against historic accusations.

But if you wanna compare it with today politics, that peace was an internal matter between two factions of the Islamic empire, so:
Imam Hassan compromise is equal to Khamenei's compromise against Reformists. when one side's propaganda is high and manages to fool lots of people, then one counter plan is to let them expose themselves with their actual performance.

P.S
Few days ago, Ziba kalam said: Reformism died!