The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[yavar]

What would be Iran's response if the snap back sanctions were to be brought into place?

President Rohani has said and he’s on the record and Iran will exit NPT

 

[Dariush the Great]

President Ronnie has said and he’s on the record and Iran will exit NPT

Source ?

 

[TruthHurtz]

President Ronnie has said and he’s on the record and Iran will exit NPT

Ronnie?

 

[yavar]

Source ?

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran won’t do anything till after Nov.

If Trump wins tough decisions will have to be made. If Trump loses then Iran will be getting sanctions relief fairly quickly as Biden will return to nuclear deal.

 

[skyshadow]

But if either leader sides with Russia and China against the United States’ “double veto” right, they will not only shoulder the blame for the arms embargo on Iran expiring, but will also bear the responsibility for the beginning of the end of modern multilateralism.


https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/15/dont-let-iran-blow-up-the-u-n-security-council/

 

[zectech]

But if either leader sides with Russia and China against the United States’ “double veto” right, they will not only shoulder the blame for the arms embargo on Iran expiring, but will also bear the responsibility for the beginning of the end of modern multilateralism.


https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/15/dont-let-iran-blow-up-the-u-n-security-council/

Washington has been threatening world leaders with assassination, sanctions against democratic Iraq worse than North Korea if they end their US occupation, threatening sanctions on Germany, shaking down South Korea for billions for occupation, more bombs dropped on Afghanistan since records began, US replacing Somalia for US piracy of goods and boats. Assassinating generals. Stealing oil. Funding civil wars. And the list goes on and on.

WHAT MULTILATERALISM.?

 

[Sineva]

Iran won’t do anything till after Nov.

If Trump wins tough decisions will have to be made. If Trump loses then Iran will be getting sanctions relief fairly quickly as Biden will return to nuclear deal.

I suspect that there are a couple of real problems with that strategy.
For a start there is absolutely no guarantee at all that biden will return to the jcpoa,but let us say for arguments sake that he does,that he removes all of the chumpsters sanctions and returns unconditionally to the jcpoa,that still however leaves the very real problem that any "sanctions relief" will be on paper only,and that there will be little to no time for anything to be achieved of any real value or benefit to iran economically before the next elections in iran and it almost seems certain given rouhanis repeated failures that the hardliners will very likely win these,if not by a landslide then likely still a clear majority,and at that point the odds of the jcpoa surviving any further seem,well frankly quite minuscule.
Even with a biden regime willing to return unconditionally to the jcpoa,it would still require a literal superhuman effort from the west economically speaking to have any hope of salvaging the jcpoa in the longer term.

 

[TheImmortal]

I suspect that there are a couple of real problems with that strategy.
For a start there is absolutely no guarantee at all that biden will return to the jcpoa,but let us say for arguments sake that he does,that he removes all of the chumpsters sanctions and returns unconditionally to the jcpoa,that still however leaves the very real problem that any "sanctions relief" will be on paper only,and that there will be little to no time for anything to be achieved of any real value or benefit to iran economically before the next elections in iran and it almost seems certain given rouhanis repeated failures that the hardliners will very likely win these,if not by a landslide then likely still a clear majority,and at that point the odds of the jcpoa surviving any further seem,well frankly quite minuscule.
Even with a biden regime willing to return unconditionally to the jcpoa,it would still require a literal superhuman effort from the west economically speaking to have any hope of salvaging the jcpoa in the longer term.

Again you fail to understand how the Republic works.

For all the talk of “hardliners” you forget that backdoor negotiations started under Ahmadinejad administration. And hardliners are like Republicans there are the ultra hardliners that say leave the deal, but most hardliners support (even if they don’t say it) keeping the deal on life support.

If Iran can return to Obama era deal benefits where it can export unlimited amounts of oil, where it is reconnected to SWIFT, some outside investment, then they will gladly stay under general sanctions because IRGC makes ALOT of money in the sanctions busting business.

So IRGC and Hardliners don’t mind sanctions because their front companies enrich themselves busting sanctions on behalf of the republic. Unfortunately this leads to corruption and scandal like the Babak sanctions busting scheme leading to billions in missing money. But Iran has begun cracking down on this out of desperation.

What hurts Iran right now is complete oil embargo and disconnected from international banking system. As much as Iran would like free flowing trade and true economic benefits, if those two issues mentioned earlier are resolved Iran will stay in the deal.

And Biden has already said he would return to JCPOA (it’s his butt buddy Obama’s signature achievement so he Will return) and renogtiate a longer lasting deal.

The reason I don’t like Democrat’s is they lack power in the foreign policy structure of US. People think you get a better deal under democrats are fooled! Democrats have to give a tougher deal in order to appease Republicans and to show they aren’t the “soft” party. Where as Republicans will talk tough, but usually give a better deal in order to be the party that agrees to a deal. Democrats can’t challenge republicans, but republicans can challenge democrats if that makes sense.

Thus I am adamant that a deal should be struck with a Republican administration. Democrats give worse deals to appease Republicans and look tough and then the risk always remains it can get torn up.

 

[Shawnee]

Again you fail to understand how the Republic works.

For all the talk of “hardliners” you forget that backdoor negotiations started under Ahmadinejad administration. And hardliners are like Republicans there are the ultra hardliners that say leave the deal, but most hardliners support (even if they don’t say it) keeping the deal on life support.

If Iran can return to Obama era deal benefits where it can export unlimited amounts of oil, where it is reconnected to SWIFT, some outside investment, then they will gladly stay under general sanctions because IRGC makes ALOT of money in the sanctions busting business.

So IRGC and Hardliners don’t mind sanctions because their front companies enrich themselves busting sanctions on behalf of the republic. Unfortunately this leads to corruption and scandal like the Babak sanctions busting scheme leading to billions in missing money. But Iran has begun cracking down on this out of desperation.

What hurts Iran right now is complete oil embargo and disconnected from international banking system. As much as Iran would like free flowing trade and true economic benefits, if those two issues mentioned earlier are resolved Iran will stay in the deal.

And Biden has already said he would return to JCPOA (it’s his butt buddy Obama’s signature achievement so he Will return) and renogtiate a longer lasting deal.

The reason I don’t like Democrat’s is they lack power in the foreign policy structure of US. People think you get a better deal under democrats are fooled! Democrats have to give a tougher deal in order to appease Republicans and to show they aren’t the “soft” party. Where as Republicans will talk tough, but usually give a better deal in order to be the party that agrees to a deal. Democrats can’t challenge republicans, but republicans can challenge democrats if that makes sense.

Thus I am adamant that a deal should be struck with a Republican administration. Democrats give worse deals to appease Republicans and look tough and then the risk always remains it can get torn up.

There are so many wrong statements that I don’t know how to start. “Tough guy” diplomacy of the republicans that you adore has many limitations. Bush and Trump are good examples.

Your other wrong statement is assuming that there should be a deal with someone. No, a deal may never be achieved.

Finally, you are giving the impression of being a Republican.
...

 

[TheImmortal]

There are so many wrong statements that I don’t know how to start. “Tough guy” diplomacy of the republicans that you adore has many limitations. Bush and Trump are good examples.

Your other wrong statement is assuming that there should be a deal with someone. No, a deal may never be achieved.

Finally, you are giving the impression of being a Republican.
...

It’s not “tough guy” diplomacy anymore then hardliners in Iran are “tough guys”. Conservative is Conservative wether it is IR or Iran or Republican of Congress of USA. Go look at the history of arms treaties, nuclear treaties, etc.

US-communist China breakthrough? under Nixon a Republican

US-Soviet Union/Russia breakthrough? Under Reagan a Republican

US-Iran hostage crisis deal and Iran-Contra arms deal? Under Reagan a Republican

Some of you have this distorted notion that Iran can stay under these types of sanctions forever. It’s simply not possible, not unless Iran does massive reform to its economy which I don’t see happening.

Being disconnected from international banking system, not being able to conduct trade deals due to financing issues and banking issues, the list goes on. I mean Iran cannot even access a the billions it has stuck in South Korea for past oil transactions right now let alone procuring medicine during COVID crisis from aboard.

I am not sure if you guys think China will swoop in and save the Iranian economy, they might, but nothing I have seen from China leads me to believe they are that reliable of an “ally”.

Now Iran’s options are quite simple:

A) go nuclear
B) wait for US to return to full compliance of JCPOA and in mean time weather the sanctions for another x number of years (Current Iranian strategy)
C) renegotiate a deal with longer sunset clauses for nuclear elements (both Biden and Trump have indicated this desire)
D) leave nuclear deal
E) Get saved by China (Strategic partnership)

I challenge users on here who think that Iran should leave the deal or never negotiate to tell me how they plan to rescue the Iranian economy in the next 10 years.

Toman is at 20,000-25,000 currently. Another 2 more years of sanctions and where will Toman be then? 50,000? 75,000?.

If you have a plan I am happy to hear it.

 

[yavar]

It’s not “tough guy” diplomacy anymore then hardliners in Iran are “tough guys”. Conservative is Conservative wether it is IR or Iran or Republican of Congress of USA. Go look at the history of arms treaties, nuclear treaties, etc.

US-communist China breakthrough? under Nixon a Republican

US-Soviet Union/Russia breakthrough? Under Reagan a Republican

US-Iran hostage crisis deal and Iran-Contra arms deal? Under Reagan a Republican

Some of you have this distorted notion that Iran can stay under these types of sanctions forever. It’s simply not possible, not unless Iran does massive reform to its economy which I don’t see happening.

Being disconnected from international banking system, not being able to conduct trade deals due to financing issues and banking issues, the list goes on. I mean Iran cannot even access a the billions it has stuck in South Korea for past oil transactions right now let alone procuring medicine during COVID crisis from aboard.

I am not sure if you guys think China will swoop in and save the Iranian economy, they might, but nothing I have seen from China leads me to believe they are that reliable of an “ally”.

Now Iran’s options are quite simple:

A) go nuclear
B) wait for US to return to full compliance of JCPOA and in mean time weather the sanctions for another x number of years (Current Iranian strategy)
C) renegotiate a deal with longer sunset clauses for nuclear elements (both Biden and Trump have indicated this desire)
D) leave nuclear deal
E) Get saved by China (Strategic partnership)

I challenge users on here who think that Iran should leave the deal or never negotiate to tell me how they plan to rescue the Iranian economy in the next 10 years.

Toman is at 20,000-25,000 currently. Another 2 more years of sanctions and where will Toman be then? 50,000? 75,000?.

If you have a plan I am happy to hear it.

I like your challenge

the only part I would choose you are dead wrong is the part that we negotiating a new deal or any further negotiation just a reminder for next 10 years Iran will do what he did in the nine years impose war by United States and and Saddam.

What ever the options or decisions will be next 10 years it won’t be any negotiation even if our currency devalue twice more so this dream of renegotiation is far-fetched from reality and will not ever for next 10 years.

Negotiation is over and Iranian public and good majority of it now fully understand that negotiation has no benefit so establishment will do what It wanted to do always and there will be no negotiation

 

[TheImmortal]

I like your challenge

the only part I would choose you are dead wrong is the part that we negotiating a new deal or any further negotiation just a reminder for next 10 years Iran will do what he did in the nine years impose war by United States and and Saddam.

What ever the options or decisions will be next 10 years it won’t be any negotiation even if our currency devalue twice more so this dream of renegotiation is far-fetched from reality and will not ever for next 10 years.

Negotiation is over and Iranian public and good majority of it now fully understand that negotiation has no benefit so establishment will do what It wanted to do always and there will be no negotiation

Ok let’s say you are correct that no negotiations happen for next decade. What is your plan to save the Iranian economy?

Soviet Union had an empire and it’s influence was all across the world. Yet it collapsed suddenly under its financial mismanagement, overspending, and corruption.

Iran may or may not experience such a fate. The very least from further currency devaluation, inflation, and sluggish GDP will be further hardship on people, more unemployment, more drug addiction, etc.

So I am not against no negotiations as long as the person has a plan to improve the lives of Iranians. The North Korea model of subjugating the population to extreme poverty and hardship will not work in Iranian society.

Back under Bush administration, the thought of oil sanctions was considered draconian and a redline. Yet Obama (a Democrat) crossed that line and opened up Pandora’s box.

Iran should be given all the credit in the world that it survived sanctions that no other nation could survive for last 30-40 years. However, if Iran was subject to these sanctions it currently is subject to from the start way back in 1980, then the Iran of today would look very very different.

Iran caught a break that the West did no deploy oil related sanctions until Obama administration. Iran also caught a break that it wasn’t cut off from banking system till Obama admisntration.

Right now, Iran has yet to present a solution for the two problems I just mentioned. If a solution is not found the Republic pillars will start cracking under severe financial hardship.

It may or may not break, no one can tell. But the status quo is not the right route and if Iran plans on not negotiating with the West then it should begin massive reforms Of its economy and corruption crackdown.

 

[aryobarzan]

After S-300 fiasco with Russia and and JCPOA with the west Iran will be foolish to negotiate any major deal with the them (china is yet to be tested!)..Destiny of a nation should no longer be tied to the worthless signatures on the paper.

So what is the solution...Iranian population is large enough and Iranian land vast and abundant in natural resources that she does not depend on outside trade to prosper...yes outside trade is desirable but not necessary for a country such as Iran ...

What is needed.... proper management of the resources by competent people..morons such as Rohanni and his team should give way to people who can do the job and that my friends is beyond my pay grade...why Iran does not have guys like Moghadam and/or Hajizadeh in the economic decision making is not known to me!!..

 

[Shawnee]

Ok let’s say you are correct that no negotiations happen for next decade. What is your plan to save the Iranian economy?

Soviet Union had an empire and it’s influence was all across the world. Yet it collapsed suddenly under its financial mismanagement, overspending, and corruption.

Iran may or may not experience such a fate. The very least from further currency devaluation, inflation, and sluggish GDP will be further hardship on people, more unemployment, more drug addiction, etc.

So I am not against no negotiations as long as the person has a plan to improve the lives of Iranians. The North Korea model of subjugating the population to extreme poverty and hardship will not work in Iranian society.

Back under Bush administration, the thought of oil sanctions was considered draconian and a redline. Yet Obama (a Democrat) crossed that line and opened up Pandora’s box.

Iran should be given all the credit in the world that it survived sanctions that no other nation could survive for last 30-40 years. However, if Iran was subject to these sanctions it currently is subject to from the start way back in 1980, then the Iran of today would look very very different.

Iran caught a break that the West did no deploy oil related sanctions until Obama administration. Iran also caught a break that it wasn’t cut off from banking system till Obama admisntration.

Right now, Iran has yet to present a solution for the two problems I just mentioned. If a solution is not found the Republic pillars will start cracking under severe financial hardship.

It may or may not break, no one can tell. But the status quo is not the right route and if Iran plans on not negotiating with the West then it should begin massive reforms Of its economy and corruption crackdown.

Many “known good deals” worked under Democrat’s like the Balkan deal, two state deal, or the Egypt-Israel deal. The latter was 1000 times bigger than UAE-Israel.

There is no guarantee when you disarm yourself and kneel on your knees, as you favor, you do not get PUNCHED in your face HARD. That is where even a horrible status quo is lovable.

Read about China-US deal and why it happened. Chinese worked hard and believed in their own power. They produced.
China pre-1972 made US to do a good deal.
Export of China in 1980: 20 billion dollars
Now: 3 trillion dollars
...