The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[Sineva]

Prof Marandi interviews

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559581776258949120

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559835994983219200

 

[Cthulhu]

DEVELOPING: Details on new nuclear deal approved by Iran

The terms of the deal reportedly include nearly two dozen guarantees to prevent the US from exiting the deal again

ByNews Desk- August 18 2022

(Photo credit: AFP)

As Washington mulls over the final text of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) approved by Iran and the EU, details have emerged on the deal’s term, which include guarantees against future US attempts to abandon the agreement.

The new terms, which include comprehensive sanctions relief for the Islamic Republic, also allow Iran to revive its enrichment program more quickly than before, in order to deter the US from exiting on a whim.

“The platforms of the centrifuges will not be destroyed and their connections and electricity are collected, which brings our rebuildability to under one year and is a kind of guarantee,” explains an Iranian source, giving an example of one of the deal’s terms that are more favorable to Iran than in the original 2015 document.

The ball is in Washington’s court to sign off on the final terms, which Iran approved earlier this week.

Sources with knowledge of the negotiations informed The Cradle that there are 21 guarantees written into the agreement to alleviate Iran’s concerns.

If Washington agrees to this final deal, its implementation will take place in stages, the first of which will be the signing of the agreement by all involved foreign ministers in the Austrian capital.

That same day, the US will cancel three executive orders by former president Donald Trump to withdraw from the JCPOA.

From here, the deal calls for a 60 day window during which Iran will test the agreement’s legitimacy and operability by selling oil to western countries, and accessing its funds frozen abroad.

Among several other points, the guarantees will include a statement made by US President Joe Biden and an official letter to be drafted by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

Sources say that the terms include allowing Iran to continue research and development for its nuclear energy program for ten years, and call for the sale of the nation’s surplus uranium supply.

Sanctions against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will remain in place, however, these will no longer extend to “partner companies” that engage in transactions with the special forces group.

This is in line with reports from last week, which claimed that the final draft proposal from the EU specified: “Europeans and other non-Americans could conduct business with Iranian entities engaged in ‘transactions’ with the IRGC without fear of triggering US sanctions.”

The finalized deal also leaves the door open for future negotiations to lift sanctions on the IRGC.

Additionally, if the US decides to unilaterally exit the deal again, there will be a three year and one month grace period during which foreign companies will be unaffected by sanctions.

A prisoner-exchange deal with Washington and the release of Iranian funds frozen in South Korea are separate from this deal.

After delivering their response to the EU draft proposal on Monday, an advisor to the Iranian negotiating team in Vienna, Mohammad Marandi, told CNN “we’re closer than we’ve been before” to securing a deal, and the “remaining issues are not very difficult to resolve.”

“The main issue facing the revival of the deal is the guarantees requested from the Iranian side, ensuring Iran will be compensated in case future US administrations decide to withdraw again,” Marandi stressed during his televised interview.

DEVELOPING: Details on new nuclear deal approved by Iran

The terms of the deal reportedly include nearly two dozen guarantees to prevent the US from exiting the deal again

thecradle.co

WTF?!

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

DEVELOPING: Details on new nuclear deal approved by Iran

The terms of the deal reportedly include nearly two dozen guarantees to prevent the US from exiting the deal again

ByNews Desk- August 18 2022

(Photo credit: AFP)

As Washington mulls over the final text of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) approved by Iran and the EU, details have emerged on the deal’s term, which include guarantees against future US attempts to abandon the agreement.

The new terms, which include comprehensive sanctions relief for the Islamic Republic, also allow Iran to revive its enrichment program more quickly than before, in order to deter the US from exiting on a whim.

“The platforms of the centrifuges will not be destroyed and their connections and electricity are collected, which brings our rebuildability to under one year and is a kind of guarantee,” explains an Iranian source, giving an example of one of the deal’s terms that are more favorable to Iran than in the original 2015 document.

The ball is in Washington’s court to sign off on the final terms, which Iran approved earlier this week.

Sources with knowledge of the negotiations informed The Cradle that there are 21 guarantees written into the agreement to alleviate Iran’s concerns.

If Washington agrees to this final deal, its implementation will take place in stages, the first of which will be the signing of the agreement by all involved foreign ministers in the Austrian capital.

That same day, the US will cancel three executive orders by former president Donald Trump to withdraw from the JCPOA.

From here, the deal calls for a 60 day window during which Iran will test the agreement’s legitimacy and operability by selling oil to western countries, and accessing its funds frozen abroad.

Among several other points, the guarantees will include a statement made by US President Joe Biden and an official letter to be drafted by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

Sources say that the terms include allowing Iran to continue research and development for its nuclear energy program for ten years, and call for the sale of the nation’s surplus uranium supply.

Sanctions against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will remain in place, however, these will no longer extend to “partner companies” that engage in transactions with the special forces group.

This is in line with reports from last week, which claimed that the final draft proposal from the EU specified: “Europeans and other non-Americans could conduct business with Iranian entities engaged in ‘transactions’ with the IRGC without fear of triggering US sanctions.”

The finalized deal also leaves the door open for future negotiations to lift sanctions on the IRGC.

Additionally, if the US decides to unilaterally exit the deal again, there will be a three year and one month grace period during which foreign companies will be unaffected by sanctions.

A prisoner-exchange deal with Washington and the release of Iranian funds frozen in South Korea are separate from this deal.

After delivering their response to the EU draft proposal on Monday, an advisor to the Iranian negotiating team in Vienna, Mohammad Marandi, told CNN “we’re closer than we’ve been before” to securing a deal, and the “remaining issues are not very difficult to resolve.”

“The main issue facing the revival of the deal is the guarantees requested from the Iranian side, ensuring Iran will be compensated in case future US administrations decide to withdraw again,” Marandi stressed during his televised interview.

DEVELOPING: Details on new nuclear deal approved by Iran

The terms of the deal reportedly include nearly two dozen guarantees to prevent the US from exiting the deal again

thecradle.co

WTF?!

Whats the issue?

 

[Abid123]

Or just use it against a non nuclear adversary?

That is actually a very good question. In theory you cant use tactical nukes against a nuclear power no matter what yield it is. It will result in direct nuclear retaliation even if its just 1 KT. A nuke is a nuke.

Putin has said in a war against Russia is going to use tactical nukes. I can understand very well why. It is not easy to fight against 30 countries that are combined vastly superior conventionally.

A bit like the big conventional gap between Pakistan vs India. The difference is that Pakistan cant use tactical nukes on Indian territory as it would turn the conflict nuclear instantly. Russia could use tactical nukes on non nuclear NATO countries. If India manages to occupy a part of Pakistan will respond with tactical nukes. The ball is now in India's court. They can either escalate the situation to full scale nuclear war or retreat back to Indian territory,

In the case of Iran it depends on a few factors. When Iran "officially" goes nuclear how will the GCC states react? How many of them will start developing nuclear weapons other than Saudi Arabia? UAE? Qatar? Could Iran use tactical nukes against American bases in the non nuclear GCC states like UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman? Or would it be suicide? If Iran has ICBM's capable of targeting the US mainland it may not be suicidale after all. Is the US really going to trade Al Udeid or Al Dhafra for New York or Washington D.C? Iran may not even target US population center as retaliation for getting tactically nuked, but how are the US leadership supposed to know that?

 

[Cthulhu]

Whats the issue?

I don't know jack, Except the fact that this is the exact same kos sher deal that hassan rouhani and javad zarif signed.

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

I don't know jack, Except the fact that this is the exact same kos sher deal that hassan rouhani and javad zarif signed.

Well it seems US has made some big concessions with Iran, there are a lot of grace periods and verifying checks in there, and it's Iran that seems to have a snapback mechanism on its enrichment for when US eventually leaves (because we all know if it's signed, they will leave or renege eventually). Although it will take a year to enrich again which is still too slow, imo. The issue is how long this deal will last and if it doesn't will we finally end signing deals with the conniving US? We're at a stage were we need the nukes more than the sanctions relief.

 

[Stryker1982]

Well it seems US has made some big concessions with Iran, there are a lot of grace periods and verifying checks in there, and it's Iran that seems to have a snapback mechanism on its enrichment for when US eventually leaves (because we all know if it's signed, they will leave or renege eventually). Although it will take a year to enrich again which is still too slow, imo. The issue is how long this deal will last and if it doesn't will we finally end signing deals with the conniving US? We're at a stage were we need the nukes more than the sanctions relief.

If democracts win the next election, it could go on for 6 years which would not be bad deal for Iran, but I doubt it.

 

[BlessedKingOfLonging]

If democracts win the next election, it could go on for 6 years which would not be bad deal for Iran, but I doubt it.

ZoGnald CUCK is going to become president again in 2024. Not that it really matters but I want him back so he can face Aqa-e-Raeisi (and hopefully become the 5th sitting president in the history of Jew A-s-s AIDS to be assassinated).

 

[raptor22]

If democracts win the next election, it could go on for 6 years which would not be bad deal for Iran, but I doubt it.

if the US remain committed then 2 years for Biden and then due to extended 3 years of guarantee to companies it'd be 5 years in total .. however the best and only guarantee is our policy and actions .

نکته مهم این است که طرف مقابل تا پایان دوره اول بایدن قطعا از برجام خارج نخواهد شد. از طرفی اگر فردای انتخابات آینده رئیس جمهور آینده بخواهد از برجام خارج بشود طبق توافق باید 3 سال بگذرد و این با 2 و نیم سال آینده دوره بایدن می شود 5 و نیم سال.

However I dunno how on earth they are so sure about Biden ... besides there is no talk about U-turn ...
Their guarantee:

 

[QWECXZ]

if the US remain committed then 2 years for Biden and then due to extended 3 years of guarantee to companies it'd be 5 years in total .. however the best and only guarantee is our policy and actions .


However I dunno how on earth they are so sure about Biden ... besides there is no talk about U-turn ...
Their guarantee:
View attachment 871816

If the US enters the deal again, I am 100% sure that they will use the trigger mechanism in 2025 right before the deal ends.

Any revival of the JCPOA that does not change the trigger mechanism will be a huge betrayal that will put the Islamic Republic above the Qajar dynasty in national treason.

 

[BlessedKingOfLonging]

If the US enters the deal again, I am 100% sure that they will use the trigger mechanism in 2025 right before the deal ends.

Any revival of the JCPOA that does not change the trigger mechanism will be a huge betrayal that will put the Islamic Republic above the Qajar dynasty in national treason.

@TheImmortal made an interesting remark the other day - Iran has to enter this deal at least one more time to establish to russia and china that they were fully committed to re-entering the JCPOA and meeting all their obligations.

Now if the amerikwans pull out again, then they will more or less openly spurn any sanctions and continue meeting their own ends of the accord as intended while bypassing the western signatories prohibitions. Legally, Iran would have the upper hand here and could operate with impunity.

 

[raptor22]

If the US enters the deal again, I am 100% sure that they will use the trigger mechanism in 2025 right before the deal ends.

Any revival of the JCPOA that does not change the trigger mechanism will be a huge betrayal that will put the Islamic Republic above the Qajar dynasty in national treason.

Well on the issue of "DRM" :

This one next to keeping IR6 and their structure in the sites + keeping 60% enriched (as I understood) within the country , R&D on other machines like IR9 seems to be what they think as make it harder for the other side to go after DRM ... not to forget Trump tried to use it and failed it is not snap back as they like to call it , it's got procedures meeting and so on and once they wanna go after it we also could restart higher enrichment ...
But be honest it's not gonna be a miracle regarding economy which most of its problem is internal like 105 billion $ subsidies that make poor folks poorer and rich ones richer ..

 

[QWECXZ]

Well on the issue of "DRM" :

View attachment 871817
This one next to keeping IR6 and their structure in the sites + keeping 60% enriched (as I understood) within the country , R&D on other machines like IR9 seems to be what they think as make it harder for the other side to go after DRM ... not to forget Trump tried to use it and failed it is not snap back as they like to call it , it's got procedures meeting and so on and once they wanna go after it we also could restart higher enrichment ...
But be honest it's not gonna be a miracle regarding economy which most of its problem is internal like 105 billion $ subsidies that make poor folks poorer and rich ones richer ..

Basically, it means that the agency will say whatever they want and they'll use it as an excuse to activate the trigger.
I am 100% sure that if the US returns to the deal, they will activate the trigger mechanism in 2025.

 

[raptor22]

Basically, it means that the agency will say whatever they want and they'll use it as an excuse to activate the trigger.
I am 100% sure that if the US returns to the deal, they will activate the trigger mechanism in 2025.

What is the difference if their goal is to prevent Iran to have nukes? there is no guarantee whatsoever on this planet to make the US to adhere to the deal (even congress approves it) but what pushed them to signed the deal in the first place, that's why both agreed to go back to day zero if such a thing happened as we know no one would do anything ... Iran with full nuclear program and 5+1 with its sanctions. last time agency did something against agreement to put pressure on Iran , Iran installed 500 IR6 and gassed them over night ... the reason why Trump did what it did so easily was Rohanni signaling out that they would remain in the deal at any cost ... but now cost is shared ... not DRM not the UNSCR nothing could help you to enjoy your rights but your actions.
You have 3 years and some to make the most out of it.

 

[QWECXZ]

What is the difference if their goal is to prevent Iran to have nukes? there is no guarantee whatsoever on this planet to make the US to adhere to the deal (even congress approves it) but what pushed them to signed the deal in the first place, that's why both agreed to go back to day zero if such a thing happened as we know no one would do anything ... Iran with full nuclear program and 5+1 with its sanctions. last time agency did something against agreement to put pressure on Iran , Iran installed 500 IR6 and gassed them over night ... the reason why Trump did what it did so easily was Rohanni signaling out that they would remain in the deal at any cost ... but now cost is shared ... not DRM not the UNSCR nothing could help you to enjoy your rights but your actions.
You have 3 years and some to make the most out of it.

Wow. Big deal! 500 IR-6 centrifuges. I'm sure the West is devastated now. LOL

Dude, 500 IR-6 centrifuges is about 3000 SWU UF6/Year. It's really nothing compared to what Iran needs to become a real nuclear power.

If the IR is sincere with its threats, they should've rebuilt the IR-40 reactor again. The parliament's bill was passed almost 2 years ago and nothing has been done in that regard ever since.