The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[QWECXZ]

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said on Monday that Iran has more than three tons of uranium enriched to 4 percent, and at least 1,000 tons of yellowcake. This is 10 times more than Iran is permitted to have under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, he said.

https://www.jns.org/iran-has-10-times-the-enriched-uranium-allowed-by-the-jcpoa/

Thank god you are not leading Iran’s atomic agency your knowledge is even worse than your economic knowledge.

Like I said and what you failed to understand by screaming it doesn’t matter how many facilities iran has, is that Iran has the infrastructure in place to increase output when it needs to. But stock piling 5000+ tones of yellow cake has costs of storage, security, and maintenance on top of excavation costs.

Thus at this time, Iran has no need to “step up” yellowcake production outside of what Iran’s atomic agency has already approved in its development plan.

You have yet to provide any proof of why Iran needs to step up production outside of its current expanding production levels. Iran’s 100,000 SWU program is a long term goal that may take decades to reach if Iran returns to JCPOA for another decade.

I provided proof and demonstrated clearly with numbers why Iran needs to step up uranium mining but it was clearly over your head and you couldn't understand it. I see no reason to reiterate them for you, but just for other readers I will explain it one last time and then I'll be done with you.

You quoted two parts of my post that, in fact not only is not inconsistent with the news you have posted from a Jewish news outlet, but makes complete sense to someone who has a basic knowledge of the nuclear industry.

Just to reiterate facts I had already posted before your yet-another low quality post:

The only reason that Iran hasn't run out of yellow cake yet is because Iran imported hundreds of tonnes of natural uranium and yellow cake from Russia and Kazakhstan after the JCPOA. We need to step up uranium mining if we want to become completely independent in the fuel cycle.

We imported hundreds of tonnes of natural uranium and yellow cake from Russia and Kazakhstan after the JCPOA.
Not only that's completely irrelevant to our own production capacity at home (another irrelevant futile attempt by you due to your ignorance of the matter), but a rough estimation shows that about 200 tonnes of yellow cake was in fact necessary to compensate for our stockpile of 3.5% enriched uranium at the time of the deal, which was about 13 tonnes of 3.5% enriched uranium.
If we depend on foreign countries for importing uranium, then the point of running an indigenous nuclear program is jeopardized.

At the moment, Iran's production of yellow cake is insignificant for an indigenous nuclear program and we rely on foreign countries (Russia) to provide fuel for Bushehr. If Iran wants to maintain a nuclear program that does not rely on foreign countries, it has to significantly step up its nuclear program in nearly all aspects, particularly mining and enrichment. It's not something for debate.

1,000 tones of yellow cake is barely enough to run even our only currently operational nuclear reactor at Bushehr for 3 years. When Iran's new nuclear reactors become operational, that won't be enough for roughly one year of our nuclear program to produce nearly 3 GW of electricity. And our development plans require even more nuclear reactors in future. A small nation like the UAE, for example, will produce 5.6 GW of nuclear electricity by 2025 with the worst case scenario for delays.

The same is true about our enrichment program. We need about 120,000 SWU (Kg of Uranium per year) to enrich uranium for one reactor at Bushehr. If measured in UF6 instead of U, that would translate into roughly 180,000 SWU. With 3 nuclear reactors, our enrichment capacity must increase to above 350,000 SWU (U/year) or 500,000 SWU (UF6/year). You cannot reach anywhere close to this number as long as you want to negotiate over your nuclear program with foreign powers for temporary sanction reliefs, who happen to be very eager to restrict your program to about 2% of this figure.

 

[OldTwilight]

we should make nuke , then negotiate on not using on them ...

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran shouldn’t negotiate JCPOA because it will last 2 years.

Yesterday’s government elections and next years Congressional elections should be sounding alarm bells in Tehran. Republicans are making a comeback.

There is a STRONG chance that Dems lose control of Senate next year and presidency in 2024 with either Trump or DeSantis taking the nomination. Just like how Rouhani and Co lost all power towards the end making way for a conservative wave in Iran.

If I was Iran, do you really want to negotiate with a party who in 2 years could be out of power?

Back in 1979, Iran didn’t negotiate with Carter and waited for Reagan. If you are going to negotiate you negotiate with conservatives not with liberals in the US power structure. I have said that before. If Iran is going to negotiate do it with a conservative President. Or else be prepared to see that agreement get ripped up in 2 years.

 

[OldTwilight]

The regim want Iranians feel constant threat of foreign invasion to be able control them .... That why there wont be any nukes for Iran ... If we arm ourselves with nuke , the possibility of foreign invasion will fall down overnight , then people will question the regim failed domestic policies and why there is high rate of corruption ....

IMO , the reason that ISI ( Islamic state of Iran ) didn't build nukes till now is their own failure rather than fear of USA or Israel ....

 

[SalarHaqq]

The regim want Iranians feel constant threat of foreign invasion to be able control them .... That why there wont be any nukes for Iran ... If we arm ourselves with nuke , the possibility of foreign invasion will fall down overnight , then people will question the regim failed domestic policies and why there is high rate of corruption ....

IMO , the reason that ISI ( Islamic state of Iran ) didn't build nukes till now is their own failure rather than fear of USA or Israel ....

Sure, because the USSR possessing thousands of nukes neutralized the threat posed to them by the US regime (proxy war in Afghanistan, Reagan's "Star Wars" bluff, the west's upper hand in the propaganda war since the 1960's-1970's, etc)... not.

If Iran chooses not to (openly) go nuclear, it's only because this is the most intelligent and cost-effective way forward right now against the zio-American empire. It has nothing much to do with domestic risk calculations. Domestically, the opposition to the Islamic Republic (including the exiled one) would be dead and buried for all eternity if it weren't for the massive support they're receiving from the enemy, ie a huge array of influential world powers (Isra"el" and the entire NATO) plus their regional milking-cow vassals and their gazillions of propaganda outlets on satellite TV and swarming troll and bot armies on (anti-)"social media".

 

[aryobarzan]

Iran shouldn’t negotiate JCPOA because it will last 2 years.

Yesterday’s government elections and next years Congressional elections should be sounding alarm bells in Tehran. Republicans are making a comeback.

There is a STRONG chance that Dems lose control of Senate next year and presidency in 2024 with either Trump or DeSantis taking the nomination. Just like how Rouhani and Co lost all power towards the end making way for a conservative wave in Iran.

If I was Iran, do you really want to negotiate with a party who in 2 years could be out of power?

Back in 1979, Iran didn’t negotiate with Carter and waited for Reagan. If you are going to negotiate you negotiate with conservatives not with liberals in the US power structure. I have said that before. If Iran is going to negotiate do it with a conservative President. Or else be prepared to see that agreement get ripped up in 2 years.

you are right

The regim want Iranians feel constant threat of foreign invasion to be able control them .... That why there wont be any nukes for Iran ... If we arm ourselves with nuke , the possibility of foreign invasion will fall down overnight , then people will question the regim failed domestic policies and why there is high rate of corruption ....

IMO , the reason that ISI ( Islamic state of Iran ) didn't build nukes till now is their own failure rather than fear of USA or Israel ....

Are you sure you are Iranian....I have seen you in Arab threads praising them while at the same time denigrating your own country.@OLDTWILIGHT....may be you are an Arab or Arab iranian

 

[OldTwilight]

you are right
Are you sure you are Iranian....I have seen you in Arab threads praising them while at the same time denigrating your own country.@OLDTWILIGHT....may be you are an Arab or Arab iranian

Im not an on steroid paid idiot like others ...
Iran is falling apart , by blinding praising ISI , you just accelarate this matter , which make you guys the read enemy of Iran ...

 

[aryobarzan]

Im not an on steroid paid idiot like others ...
Iran is falling apart , by blinding praising ISI , you just accelarate this matter , which make you guys the read enemy of Iran ...

No one that I know in PDF is blindly praising Iran.. your way of being critical comes across as if you hate Iran...she fed all of us borne there be nice to her..she is the only one we have..do not lose her and become a new Palestinian...that is what our numerous enemies have plan for us..

 

[OldTwilight]

No one that I know in PDF is blindly praising Iran.. your way of being critical comes across as if you hate Iran...she fed all of us borne there be nice to her..she is the only one we have..do not lose her and become a new Palestinian...that is what our numerous enemies have plan for us..

The problem is that you see ISI as Iran , for me Iran is greater being , ISI as best is better version of Qajarian ....

 

[QWECXZ]

New update (November 5th, 2021)

Spokesman of the Iranian Atomic Agency (Kamalvandi):
1. We have produced 25 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium.
2. We have over 210 kilograms of 20%-enriched uranium in storage.

"No non-nuclear state can do that", he said; referring to the production and storage of 25 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium.

At this point, Iran's current stockpile of uranium can be very fast converted into 60 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium in a short time. Breakout time has been reduced to less than a month with Iran's currently installed centrifuges.

 

[aryobarzan]

New update (November 5th, 2021)

Spokesman of the Iranian Atomic Agency (Kamalvandi):
1. We have produced 25 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium.
2. We have over 210 kilograms of 20%-enriched uranium in storage.

"No non-nuclear state can do that", he said; referring to the production and storage of 25 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium.

At this point, Iran's current stockpile of uranium can be very fast converted into 60 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium in a short time. Breakout time has been reduced to less than a month with Iran's currently installed centrifuges.

Simple question to you..With the current stockpile,,,how many A-bombs are possible!!..

 

[TheImmortal]

175kg of 20% is needed for 1 bomb (25kg of 90% enriched uranium) about 20% material loss taking 90% and transferring it into metal uranium bomb components.

So Iran has enough for 1 maybe 2 bombs if it really tries and cuts corners on KT yield (much like earlier NK tests which were low yield bombs)


On Unrelated note.... Zionist article below goes into a decent overview of what the “new” deal could look like along with my personal thoughts.

*Iran doesn’t revert back to IR-1 in 2015 deal and continues to keep IR-6 and IR-4 and IR-2 centrifuges running.
*Iran stops uranium metal production
*New deal lasts till 2031 or when Trump rips it up in 2024
*Iran continues advanced centrifuge research at Fordow (likely with no UF6 feed or if UF6 fed then not retaining any material....so either diluting enrichment back to natural grade or sending it all out thru the waste line of centrifuge).
*Ships out all uranium in excess of 3.5% percent and in return receives natural uranium or yellowcake

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

 

[QWECXZ]

Simple question to you..With the current stockpile,,,how many A-bombs are possible!!..

I can't tell for sure but assuming that Iran lacks advanced know-how about nuclear weapons design and it is restricted only to basic and rudimentary designs like the gun-type design, at least 3 bombs with ease in a really short matter of time (maybe 3 weeks or less).

The question basically boils down to how well you can keep the chain reaction going. You want to have enough neutrons to keep the reaction going until your fissile material goes under fission as much as possible. Producing a sizable flux of fast neutrons is difficult, so they usually try to keep the already existing neutrons in the fissile material as much as possible to sustain the chain reaction.
The critical mass of uranium (U-235) without tampering is large (about 50 kilograms) but you can reduce it with neutron reflection and tampering to about one-forth of it at ~15 kilograms; although an eight-fold reduction is theoretically proven to be possible using diffusion theory. The tamper delays the expansion of the fissile material which increases the yield of the weapon. It also acts as a neutron reflector which prevents neutrons from leaving the surface of the fissile material.

An important contributor to a high yield nuclear weapon that is used in relatively more advanced designs than the gun-type design is the compression of your fissile material. The more you can compress your fissile material, the more you can theoretically increase the chance of a sustainable chain reaction at a lower mass. However, compression becomes exponentially more difficult. @Shawnee pointed out to me previously that with proper compression and a good neutron initiator one can reduce the critical mass to 3 kilograms. In that case, assuming it's true, one may conclude that Iran can have 20 bombs in the order of tens of kilo-tonnes with its current stockpile but that is more on the optimistic side than reality in my opinion.

It's hard to know where Iran's covert nuclear program is because whenever something is out, Iran always denies it and it is hard to tell whether the enemy is telling the truth or not because there's a lot of politics and misinformation about Iran and our nuclear program. But from the details of the AMAD project that is circulating online, Iran seems to have already mastered exploding-bridgewire detonation and has employed Soviet nuclear scientists to share with us their knowledge of high-explosive hydrodynamic experiments on uranium and plutonium in sub-critical masses. That means that Iran can possibly build more nukes with higher yields than just resorting to rudimentary designs. So, maybe 5 to 10 bombs in the range of 20-30 kilo-tonnes would be a fair guess mixed with a little bit of patriotism and optimism. But 3 - 5 bombs seems to be quite possible with a high probability.

 

[Shawnee]

Design and implosion matters more than the mass of U235.

What Kamalvandi said is U235F6 mass not U235 metal mass.

You can get 20 kt from 20 kg of 90 percent U235 metal (not U235F6 mass). Crappy design.

3 kg of U235 90% can give 20 Kt as well with good implosion lenses and some boost. This is a good design. Needs boost from 6Li, Triton and Deuterium. All previously produced based on IAEA reports. Triton is produced indirectly.

Thermonuclear two stage can turn 10 kg of U235 90% to 2 Mt!

 

[QWECXZ]

What Kamalvandi said is U235F6 mass not U235 metal mass.

Good point.
In that case, we will have about 40 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium.
That's still enough for at least 2 nuclear bombs.